Love to short

Crunching Numbers: Why I'd Buy AIG

This article proves that no one should ever take investment advice from an accountant.

AIG last price : 5.50 - Down 55% within 2 days after the posting of this article.

Is Crocs Doomed For Failure?

CROX just crossed below 5 bucks! Great call, I hope you were still short!

Even Insiders Are Selling Crocs

CROX just dropped below 5.00! Great call, justice has been served.

Confessions of a Shallow Solar Trader

High Voltage, the best ETF to play the solar sector is TAN.

Further Thoughts on Trina Solar and the Solar Space

Jack,

Any thoughts on the TSL downgrade to sell today from Goldman? Goldman suggested the company has a fairly week balance sheet which could cause a great deal of downside risk from possible capital raises or dilution. Thoughts?

Royale Energy: Rising Oil Prices Good for Natural Gas Stocks

Laura, I said that "I hope you get lucky" because it is not your company fundamental analysis that will lead you to these gains. You in fact did get lucky, and I applaud you for that. But again, it is purely momentum traders driving the stock higher, and not fundamentals as your article vaguely describes.

Royale Energy: Rising Oil Prices Good for Natural Gas Stocks

This artcile does not give me a single reason to buy the stock. All it says is "Don’t wait too long to make your move" and "you don’t want to wait to jump onboard for maximum gains" which sounds like a investor relations firm doing the classic pump and dump.

And you say the stock is up 69% this year??? What chart are you looking at? The stock has risen more than 400% since the beginning of the year!

You article may have had a little merit if had been written at a time when the stock was down around 4. Up hear in the clouds north of 8, all I can say is that I hope you get lucky, because it certainly isnt your fundamental analysis that will lead you to gains.

Profiting from Panic-Selling in Trina

Trader Mark,

Let me start off by saying that the vast majority of your articles are great with solid reasoning and analysis. And I agree with you that TSL has great long term prospects and is one of the cheapest stocks in the solar space. And again, you are right in saying that 90% of investors only pay attention to the headline number when it comes to earnings. However, based on that notion, investors should position themselves in a manner that takes that into account. If a trader knows that everyone will be looking only at the headline number, then holding a stock through the annoucenement means that the trader believes the overall market will react favorably to the annoucement. That said, although TSL beat estimates, the expecations were extremely high for the report. This is exemplified by the solid rally the stock saw leading up to the annoucement. Further, the whisper number was actually much higher than the consensus estmates, making for lofty expectations. So sure, the figures based on the company's operations were strong, but the currency loss must be factored in given that expectations were so high. So although the headline number did not give a fully accurate depiction of the company's performance, when expecations are so high, there only needs to be one little negative factor that can create the market to sell the stock. So the better trade would have been to sell the stock into the rally, get some more clarity on the company from the report, and then re-enter with a position. That is not applicable to all stocks, but just the ones that have such lofty expectations.

That said, TSL down below 37 is now VERY attractive, so I will be taking a position in myself. Best of luck with the fund.

Investing in a Resource-Constrained World (Part IV)

Mark,

Your long history of articles on FSLR is nothing short of lunacy. You have been obsessed with this tellerium shortage for so long, and have lost a lot of money betting on it. Although you have some merit in many of your points, and your research findings are pretty interesting, you regularly contradict yourself.

Here is the best part...

I remember in the many articles you have written previously that you were shorting FSLR, will continue to short FSLR until it goes to zero. You were convinced that FSLR was going to crash. And now you say in this post "At this time I do not even own FSLR short positions and have nothing to gain if FSLR suddenly collapses tomorrow." Why dont you own it now? Its because you first started shorting the stock around 140, which means you have probably gotten 100 margin calls, and your investment is now worth zero now that the stock has more than doubled.

So you have officially lost your right to write about FSLR in the future.

HANS and CROX Are Here to Pump You Up

Buying CROX ahead of earnings is no better than flipping a coin. The company clearly has faultered, an indication that the fad is finally fading. These were the only products left on the shelf after the holiday season was over, and this will likely be reflected in their report. An ugly stock, a soon-to-be ugly report, and most importantly, and UGLY shoe.

The Long Cases On Apollo Group and Mosaic Going Into Earnings

Both MOS and APOL are up huge this morning, great call on both plays. Cheers

The Long Cases On Apollo Group and Mosaic Going Into Earnings

A really solid article. I agree with you on APOL, and will be long the stock heading into earnings. MOS, although you may be right with your long bias, there is really no room for error with the stock having run up so much, and so the risk/reward seems unfavorable. I will likely sit on the sidelines for this one. Again, great in-depth options analysis.

Sirius, XM Satellite Radio: Good Things Come to Those Who Wait

Great article, you are right on the money with all of your points. There really are a number of competing products that negate any argument that Antitrust violations would exist. Both stocks are poised for solid upside, and cheers to you for spelling everything out so perfectly.

Lululemon Athletica: Insulated From Consumer Spending Woes

Great article. I too am long the stock with a cost average of 38. You are right, multiples are high, but their ability to keep limited inventory while continuing to aggressively open more stores will prove to be a great strategy. Again, solid article that provides very detailed insight.

AutoZone Earnings Preview: Car Wreck on the Way?

As much as I believe there are many great opportunities to get short in this market, AZO is not one of them. Keep in mind that if you are going to go short ahead of earnings, factor in expectations before making your decision. Expectations were so low for this AZO, that it made it easy to surprise on the upside.