Love to short

Investing in a Resource-Constrained World (Part IV)

Mark,

Your long history of articles on FSLR is nothing short of lunacy. You have been obsessed with this tellerium shortage for so long, and have lost a lot of money betting on it. Although you have some merit in many of your points, and your research findings are pretty interesting, you regularly contradict yourself.

Here is the best part...

I remember in the many articles you have written previously that you were shorting FSLR, will continue to short FSLR until it goes to zero. You were convinced that FSLR was going to crash. And now you say in this post "At this time I do not even own FSLR short positions and have nothing to gain if FSLR suddenly collapses tomorrow." Why dont you own it now? Its because you first started shorting the stock around 140, which means you have probably gotten 100 margin calls, and your investment is now worth zero now that the stock has more than doubled.

So you have officially lost your right to write about FSLR in the future.

First Solar's Momentum Is Seemingly Gone

Please do not write any more articles on FSLR. Back in April, you recommended shorting the stock (at $60). Since then the stock has quadrupled. Then again in September, you stated that "FSLR's momentum is seemingly gone (stock was at 100). Since then the stock has more than doubled.

You clearly do not understand this story so: (1) stop shorting the stock yourself, and (2) stop writing artciles that recommend shorting FSLR. Short selling is for people who have a clear view of a company's flaws. . . a view you do not have.

First Solar Vulnerable to a Tellurium Shortage?

Mark, I must say I have not seen anybody on this site that has stronger convictions than you. All your postings come with solid analysis, so cheers to good research on your part. I do agree that FSLR is overhyped, but I do feel there may some sense of blind optimisim that might bring you several margin calls before serious profit. I think it will be a long time before telerium actually gets a larger public spotlight where it can show how FSLR might be facing some trouble. However, that is not likely to happen for a while, and is more likely to touch 300 before touching 100.

I hope it works out for ya. Either way, your articles and blog have good insight on a little covered area of the alternative energy space.

First Solar Will Lose Fuel Fast

So are you saying that you invest according to UN-sound logic? And why are you bring up HANS, WFMI, and NTRI? Did I ever mention anything about those stocks? My comment was on FSLR. Again, your response is out of left field. My point was that 90% of your stock picks revolve around pure emotion. Keep in mind, I agree with you on the overhype these solar stocks have gotten, but before you make recommendations, make sure you have some objective analysis to back them up.

First Solar Will Lose Fuel Fast

I agree with you the solar stocks are overbought, but your logic is way off base. First of all, you cannot even compare FSLR to STP or SPWR. FSLR uses is a non-silicon solar manufacturer, whereas STP and SPWR utilize silicon. So the reason for the higher multiple is because FSLR has the ability to offer their modules at a lower price as a result of not being levered to the price of silicon. This led to huge earnings growth, which was directly reflected in their report, which it appears you didnt listen to. So although you might be right with the direction of FSLR, it would be based purely on luck, and not legitimate reasoning.

Plus, after looking at your blog, your rationale for virtually every pick you have made is out of left field. I respect the fact that you want others to hear what you have to say, but please spare others the misguided advice.