mbborak

Let's Clarify "The Worst Economy Since...." Debate

Mark, it would have been beneficial to see a chart comparing the forecasts of economists with the actual rise in unemployment for each of the last eight peaks. If there is one consistency in the last 12 months, it has been that economic forecasts have been over-optimistic and slow to revise downward. Keep in mind that throughout this past summer the majority of economists surveyed predicted the US would avoid a recession (2Q of negative growth).

Wachovia just came out today with a forecast of 9% unemployment by late next year. Not that they're correct, but suffice it to say that these forecasts will likely follow a downward trend for the forseeable future.