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Valueplay98

Valueplay98
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  • Tesla: Another Good Quarter, Encouraging Outlook [View article]
    Luxury car market is about 1.2 units/year in the US.
    Aug 8, 2013. 07:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Another Good Quarter, Encouraging Outlook [View article]
    Average price of all vehicles is 30k but only 40% of vehicles sold are cars. Trucks/SUV's bring up the average.

    Look at the list of top cars - they're all under 20k.

    Fuel savings ???? How about 7500$ just for the battery service plan ? That's ~2000 gallons of gas. I use less than 600 gallons/year.

    Insurance is going to be ridiculous on Teslas.

    Is every apartment/condo going to get access to a charger ?
    Aug 8, 2013. 07:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Another Good Quarter, Encouraging Outlook [View article]
    Just to keep things in perspective - of the top cars sold almost all of them have a base price under 22k.

    http://bit.ly/18SwKSZ

    New TSLA models that are coming will base at 35k - how are people going to afford them ?

    Nightmare in waiting - servicing your car when it needs a new fender... I hope buyers are spending the extra money on the service plans.

    7500$ for a 3 year service plan JUST for the battery ??? For the price of the service plans I could buy half of a Toyota Camry!
    Aug 8, 2013. 01:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Macro Catalysts That Could Tame The Bull Market [View article]
    Typo - "Companies like Facebook and Yelp, both have relatively small short positions, both under 5% of their current float." I believe you meant another stock than Yelp.

    Oh and forget earnings - it's the P/S metrics that are insane.

    Zillow (Z) insiders have sold more stock in the last 2 years than revenue earned by the company ? (not earnings which they don't have - just revenue...)
    Aug 7, 2013. 06:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Tesla Motors [View news story]
    5k vehicles in a quarter ? Just for perspective your average GM dealership is selling ~150 cars/month.

    I've read 200-500k units/year going forward, and I find those estimates ridiculous given that the luxury car market is only 1.2m units per year.
    Aug 7, 2013. 06:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Angie's List Will Be A Catastrophe Of Epic Proportions [View article]
    WOW (brightnest.com) that does seem like a colossal waste of money - almost like Yahoo buying Tumblr2.0 for 1B ? When they used to have Tumblr1.0 aka Yahoo Groups which they dismantled.

    Back on topic - LOVE Yelp but I'm a value guy and could never buy their stock. If ANGI breaks 22 here - could get ugly. Fib's might be at 18, but looks like a ton of hot air between 22 and 14.

    At some point CNBC will be talking about ANGI and how it went down 90%.
    Aug 7, 2013. 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn: New Highs As Shorts Have Riskiest Position [View article]
    Extreme sales projections going out 3 years to justify current valuations... hmmm where have I heard that song before ? Oh ya 1999!
    Aug 5, 2013. 12:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Buy Freeport-McMoRan? 2 Insiders Just Paid Over $42.8 Million [View article]
    Just read story saying copper stockpiles are at 10 year highs, and just look at the chart of copper ...
    Aug 2, 2013. 08:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why LinkedIn Will Be A $300 Stock This Time Next Year [View article]
    A stock at 21x revenues going 50% higher ... guess some people didn't learn from the dotcom bubble.... just goes to show how much liquidity is actually in the market to push LNKD to such valuation levels.
    Aug 1, 2013. 03:32 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Tesla Reach 500,000 In Vehicle Sales Or Is Dougherty & Co. Overly Optimistic? [View article]
    Um ya 35k is well above what the average person spends on a car.

    Look at the list of cars sold by volume, and you'll see base price under 20k for almost all of them. Even the Camry and Accord base about 22k. Those people are not buying Tesla's.

    Market of 10m people in the US ? So 1 out of 30 people can afford a Tesla ? Let me tell you something - I sold cars in my youth, and I can assure you that those figures are whacked.
    Aug 1, 2013. 12:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Tesla Reach 500,000 In Vehicle Sales Or Is Dougherty & Co. Overly Optimistic? [View article]
    With your average two car home - how many people are willing to have a Tesla as one of their two cars ? Or are Tesla's going to be third cars used as a weekend car ?

    WSJ says 1st half of 2013 about 560k luxury cars were sold -

    http://bit.ly/18SwKSZ

    How does TSLA plan on selling 200k of the ~1.2m luxury cars sold annually ? Seems kind of a stretch to me.

    Cars/trucks/SUV's are about 1/3 of the market each, but that 1/3 cars sold are almost all 25k and under - how are those people going to be spending 50k & up on a Tesla ?

    Huge sales projections seem to be coming from people who can actually afford the car without realizing most people can't afford a Tesla.
    Jul 31, 2013. 05:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preferred Stocks End July Favoring Buyers - Higher Reward For Lower Risk At Sub-$25 Prices [View article]
    It's much easier for your average retail investor to buy preferreds than regular bonds.

    Go ahead and try to buy 3 bonds with par of 100 at Fidelity or any online broker, and you'll find that the spread can be over 2%, and you're not going to get filled in the middle.

    Buy a relatively active preferred and you'll find the spread is a few cents at most, and sometimes just .01 cent.

    Your average retailer has a ~50k account, but even if you move up towards a 7 digit account how much of any one company is too much to stay diversified ?

    Now if you're buying 100k worth at a pop then 100$ par bonds are fine cause you won't get killed by the spread.
    Jul 31, 2013. 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GreenHunter: Better Short Selling Opportunity Than Trading Against SAC [View article]
    CNBC's list of % owned/outstanding - sure SAC is well diversified, but they do have 5% + stakes in some companies:

    http://cnb.cx/133oOq2

    Why not bet against some like CLW with low volume ? SAC owns like 10x average daily volume
    Jul 31, 2013. 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivendi (VIVHY.PK) has agreed to sell 85% of its stake in Activision Blizzard (ATVI) to the computer-games company and its management for $8.2B. Activision will buy back 429M shares from Vivendi for $5.83B, using $1.2B of cash and debt of $4.6B, while a consortium led by Activision CEO Bobby Kotick and co-Chairman Brian Kelly will acquire 172M shares for $2.34B. The value of the deal is $13.60 a share, or a 10% discount to Activision's close on Thursday of $15.18. Vivendi, which also plans to sell its holding in Maroc Telecom, will retain a stake of 12% in Activision after the deal is closed. (PR[View news story]
    SA article predicting this - deserves some kudos:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 26, 2013. 06:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Major Cash Return Scenarios For Activision Blizzard Shareholders [View article]
    Good call ! I hope your call options will skyrocket tomorrow!
    Jul 26, 2013. 06:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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