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edelsteijn

edelsteijn
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  • TomTom: Investors Are Misguided [View article]
    Fully agree with General Housing. The HERE Maps and TomTom Maps are pretty much the same seize; almost worldwide coverage. See Q1-transcript or listen to Q1-webcast.

    http://bit.ly/1GesTNq

    TomTom Divisions 2015:
    -Telematics growth
    -Consumer growth (PND slightly down but Sports will double so in total growth)
    -Licensing growth
    -Automotive decline will stop in Q4

    2016
    Growth in all 4 Divisions
    TomTom Automotive will growth in 2016 (sunstantially higher!!) and gain marketshare.
    Orderintake Automotive 2014 was 220 million and that will be even higher in 2015.


    Conclusion: this article is misleading!
    Apr 21, 2015. 09:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TomTom: Investors Are Misguided [View article]
    Gartner foresees 250M connected vehicles on the road by 2020

    http://bit.ly/1FGGakv


    A big part of them will have TomTom Maps inside (offline maps needed because of quality, safety and reliability) and use TomTom real-time Services (Traffic etc.).
    Subscription based business model (12 euro a year? margin 80%?)
    Apr 16, 2015. 04:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TomTom: Investors Are Misguided [View article]
    SNS securities (a conservative but serious analist) current sum-of-the-parts valuation TomTom is EUR 14.4 per share:


    "In FY15, the Telematics unit is expected to generate sales of EUR 146m and an EBITDA of EUR 64m. Fleetmatics is currently valued at an FY15 EV/EBITDA of 16.7 giving Telematics an implied valuation of EUR 1.07bn. Let's deduct 15% because of the difference between US and EU multiples, which gives TomTom Telematics an implied enterprise value of EUR 0.9bn.
    Having taken out Telematics leaves TomTom with an FY15 EBITDA of EUR 85m. We then use the implied EV/EBITDA multiple from Nokia to calculate the value of the remaining business, which gives it an enterprise value of EUR 2.23bn (25x EUR 85m). We realize we are using an FY14 multiple on a FY15 forecast EBITDA but we do not have estimates for Nokia Here EBITDA available. The total enterprise value would then be EUR 3.13bn or an equity value (TomTom is net cash EUR 103m) of EUR 3.23bn. This translates into EUR 14.4 per share."
    Apr 16, 2015. 04:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TomTom: Investors Are Misguided [View article]
    The anonymous author of the article doesn't understand the very positive developments at TomTom:

    The 4 TomTom Divisions in a nutshell:
    1. Telematics
    -500K subscribers
    -25% growth YoY

    2. Consumer
    - PND shifts tot connected PND; still declining but slowing down
    - Sports growing fast (innovative and dedicated sportswatches TomTom very sucessful in golf and running/biking)
    - New products will be introduced 29th April

    3. Automotive
    - leading real time Maps and real-time Traffic technology (last year all deals worldwide to TomTom)
    - real-time is needed for car navigation and available today for ADAS + HAD (=evolution)
    - offline maps build inside combined with car sensors is future
    (Google and Apple have only online maps and no automotive grade maps)
    - market will be booming coming 5-10 years (take-rate growth from 25% to 99%)
    - TomTom market share rising (now 20% to 50%? and up coming years)
    (deals with Renault, Fiat Chrysler, Toyota, Peugeot Citroen, Mercedes, Nissan, Mazda, Ford etc. and recently Volkswagen Audi Gruppe and Bosch)

    4. Licensing
    - Apple Maps is using TomTom-inside and they need TomTom for their CarPlay

    It's stupid to look at the financials of the past. TomTom was in a successful transition from hardware to scalable and more profitable software & services. Better valuate the assets and markets.
    Last 5 years TomTom heavily invested in new technology and new products and profits were limited (also because of deferred revenues).
    Harvesting is just starting up (it takes time before new car models come to the market) and 2016-2026 will be a golden decade for TomTom.

    Current under valuation of TomTom assets is around 30 euro.
    (Maps 5.8 + Traffic 1 + Consumer 1 + Telematics 1 = 8.8 billion euro)
    TomTom Maps are more future proof then HERE but if HERE is sold for less then 5.8 this will have it's impact at TomTom current valuation. Nevertheless TomTom will sky rocket coming decade because of their unique real-time technology that is needed in Automotive for the future of ADAS/HAD (nobody else has).
    Apr 15, 2015. 05:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TomTom: Investors Are Misguided [View article]
    Navigation in Automotive has to be reliable and build inside the car. Mobile data connection is way too fragile and dangerous (especially for ADAS/HAD where sensors are combined).
    No way that the trend for navigation will be the cloud in this market; offine navigation is key (Google and Apple don't offer this; only TomTom and HERE).
    Apr 15, 2015. 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TomTom: Investors Are Misguided [View article]
    TomTom covers the world. Just check ww.tomtom.com.

    Already in 2013 all developed countries were available in Multinet (114 countries covering 4 billion people). In China they have a joint-venture with Autonavi (now Alibaba).
    Apr 15, 2015. 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TomTom: Investors Are Misguided [View article]
    TomTom is leading in the new real-time technology (maps + traffic). This is needed for ADAS/HAD and is going to change the landscape coming years.

    Volkswagen Audi Gruppe (10 million cars a year) and Bosch already have started working with TomTom.

    Value is what you make out of an asset in the future and that is going to surprise you as ADAS/HAD is a new mass market.
    Apr 15, 2015. 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TomTom: Investors Are Misguided [View article]
    ADAS and HAD already are available and will step by step evolve into fully autonomous driving. Within 5 years every new car will have this new technology inside. Real-time maps are a key component and TomTom is leading (recent deals Volkswagen Audi Gruppe and Bosch).

    Coming 5 years TomTom marketshare and profit will sky rocket.
    Apr 15, 2015. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TomTom: Investors Are Misguided [View article]
    ADAS indeed is the first step to autonomous cars. ADAS (+ HAD) already is there and we will see fast growth coming years. In 2017 almost every new car will be equipped by this technology and for that will have the necessary real time maps for ADAS/HAD build inside.

    TomTom started delivering the real time maps and traffic to that new and booming market and is leading. The market will evolve step by step towards fully autonomous driving.
    The recent megadeals with Volkswagen Audi Gruppe and Bosch are the first proof of the success of TomTom real time map and traffic technology.

    TomTom also has won contracts with Renault, Fiat Chrysler, Peugeot Citroen, Toyota etc.etc.

    Volkswagen Audi itself already sells 10 million cars a year. Today only a small part has maps build inside. In 2017 most likely that will be almost all 10 million. And from there this will growth year on year (real time services is a subscription based model).
    If TomTom succeeds in HAD they can easily reach 50%-80% market share and this will sky rocket the profit and stock price. Then we will see 100 euro and much much higher.

    And don't forget that also AppleCarplay will depend on TomTom.
    Apr 14, 2015. 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TomTom: Investors Are Misguided [View article]
    Waze isn't bought by Facebook but by Google.
    Apr 14, 2015. 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TomTom: Investors Are Misguided [View article]
    Apple maps are TomTom maps but then used in an online version + Apple data.
    Google maps and Apple Maps are online maps.

    Online is fragile and uses expensive mobile data.

    HERE and TomTom are the only 2 suppliers of automotive grade maps (=offline).

    PND=offline
    PND=user friendly + robust large screen
    Apr 14, 2015. 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TomTom: Investors Are Misguided [View article]
    TomTom Maps (unique real time maps and real time traffic technology) are better then HERE Maps . Recently 2 megadeals were closed with Volkswagen Audi Gruppe and Bosch for HAD. TomTom is leading in the neccassary map technology for the self driving car.

    Marker rumours are that Uber will buy the Nokia HERE maps at 5.8 billion.
    That valuates the TomTom assets at 8.8 billion minimum (5.8 maps + 1 traffic + 1 telematics + 1 consumer )

    = 39 euro per share
    Apr 14, 2015. 09:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Garmin: Strong Fitness Momentum Supports $67 Price Target [View article]
    I agree on Automotive Hardware margins but TomTom's core business in Automotive is Content & Software (real time Maps , real time Traffic, UI building blocks and Cloud Services). Margins here are much much higher and these revenues are scalable without extra costs so future margins of the connected car (including Highly Automated Driving technology) building blocks TomTom delivers will become even better and better while same time the market of HAD will sky rocket coming 10 years.
    Jan 19, 2015. 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Garmin: Strong Fitness Momentum Supports $67 Price Target [View article]
    In Fitness Garmin is leading.

    In Telematics TomTom is leading.

    In Licensing TomTom is leading (Apple, BlackBerry, AOL, Autonavi (Alibaba) etc.etc. all use TomTom content; Garmin has no maps and traffic itself)

    In Automotive TomTom is leading (it owns real-time Maps) and recently signed contracts for this innovative technology with Volkswagen Audi Group and Bosch for HAD. This is a new muti billion dollar market with high growth and very high margins, so far more interesting then Fitness.

    So where Garmin has growth potential in Fitness, TomTom can win the multi billion HAD-market in Automotive. In my opinion coming years TomTom-PPS will growth exponentially and this can bring the TomTom shareprice from 5 to 10, 20, 30 40 and even to 100 and higher!
    (the only competitor is Nokia Here but TomTom has won the recent deals with Volkswagen Audi Group and Bosch because of their leading real-time map technology that is needed for HAD; Google has no offline maps that are needed for Automotive and car manufacturers don't want Google and their technology inside the core of their cars, they prefer to be independent and have a far better evolutionary road map for HAD)
    Jan 14, 2015. 04:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Continuing Execution Will Lead To Large PPS Gains In The Short, Medium, And Long Term [View article]
    Of course you are right with the current marketshare of 80% Here and 20% TomTom.
    But what you see in todays cars isn't what you are going to see in tomorrows cars. Seen the current megadeals in Auomotive all won by TomTom (Volkswagen Group, Toyota, Fiat-Chrysler, Daimler-Benz ) the future will be 50%-50%.
    To my opinion all these lost megadeals for the future forced the Here CEO to leave the company.

    Within a couple of years TomTom wil beat Here as also main supplier to Automotive, Bosch, choosing for the leading real time Maps and Traffic technology of TomTom for HAD (highly automated driving).
    Oct 20, 2014. 05:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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