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edelsteijn

edelsteijn
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  • Garmin: Strong Fitness Momentum Supports $67 Price Target [View article]
    I agree on Automotive Hardware margins but TomTom's core business in Automotive is Content & Software (real time Maps , real time Traffic, UI building blocks and Cloud Services). Margins here are much much higher and these revenues are scalable without extra costs so future margins of the connected car (including Highly Automated Driving technology) building blocks TomTom delivers will become even better and better while same time the market of HAD will sky rocket coming 10 years.
    Jan 19, 2015. 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Garmin: Strong Fitness Momentum Supports $67 Price Target [View article]
    In Fitness Garmin is leading.

    In Telematics TomTom is leading.

    In Licensing TomTom is leading (Apple, BlackBerry, AOL, Autonavi (Alibaba) etc.etc. all use TomTom content; Garmin has no maps and traffic itself)

    In Automotive TomTom is leading (it owns real-time Maps) and recently signed contracts for this innovative technology with Volkswagen Audi Group and Bosch for HAD. This is a new muti billion dollar market with high growth and very high margins, so far more interesting then Fitness.

    So where Garmin has growth potential in Fitness, TomTom can win the multi billion HAD-market in Automotive. In my opinion coming years TomTom-PPS will growth exponentially and this can bring the TomTom shareprice from 5 to 10, 20, 30 40 and even to 100 and higher!
    (the only competitor is Nokia Here but TomTom has won the recent deals with Volkswagen Audi Group and Bosch because of their leading real-time map technology that is needed for HAD; Google has no offline maps that are needed for Automotive and car manufacturers don't want Google and their technology inside the core of their cars, they prefer to be independent and have a far better evolutionary road map for HAD)
    Jan 14, 2015. 04:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Continuing Execution Will Lead To Large PPS Gains In The Short, Medium, And Long Term [View article]
    Of course you are right with the current marketshare of 80% Here and 20% TomTom.
    But what you see in todays cars isn't what you are going to see in tomorrows cars. Seen the current megadeals in Auomotive all won by TomTom (Volkswagen Group, Toyota, Fiat-Chrysler, Daimler-Benz ) the future will be 50%-50%.
    To my opinion all these lost megadeals for the future forced the Here CEO to leave the company.

    Within a couple of years TomTom wil beat Here as also main supplier to Automotive, Bosch, choosing for the leading real time Maps and Traffic technology of TomTom for HAD (highly automated driving).
    Oct 20, 2014. 05:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Convincing Reasons To Buy Nokia On The Pullback [View article]
    What happened since I've published my opinion 2 months ago?


    Here the shocking news for Nokia-Here coming from Paris last week:

    -Volkswagen Audi Group (biggest car manufactur in the word) selected TomTom for real time Maps and real time Traffic to be introduced in their HAD technology. So coming years Here will gradually loose this customer.

    -Toyota Europe selected TomTom

    -Daimler Benz selected TomTom for Smart (worldwide)

    -Bosch (one of the biggest suppliers to Automotive) selected TomTom real time Maps and real time Traffic for their HAD technology. That new technology is going to be used by many many car manufacturers coming 10 years.

    Conclusion: after Fiat-Chrysler, Renault, Peugeot Citroen PSA, now also the Germans and Japanese are switching from Here to TomTom
    Oct 8, 2014. 05:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Garmin, A Hapless Fellow Under Fire From 3 Giants In The Name Of Apple, Google And Samsung [View article]
    Garmin may have some software but car manufacturers and OEM want the complete software solution:

    real time Maps + real time Traffic + software

    As Garmin has NO Maps and NO Traffic themselves, they will loose the battle in Automotive (and they already did). See the recent deals coming from Paris last week:

    -Volkswagen Audi Group (biggest car manufacturer in the word) selected TomTom for real time Maps and real time Traffic to be introduced in their HAD technology. So coming years Here will gradually loose this customer.

    -Toyota Europe selected TomTom

    -Daimler Benz selected TomTom for Smart (worldwide)

    -Bosch (one of the biggest suppliers to Automotive) selected TomTom real time Maps and real time Traffic for their HAD technology. That new technology is going to be used by many many car manufacturers coming 10 years.

    Conclusion: after Fiat-Chrysler, Renault, Peugeot Citroen PSA, now also the Germans and Japanese are switching from Here to TomTom
    Oct 8, 2014. 05:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Continuing Execution Will Lead To Large PPS Gains In The Short, Medium, And Long Term [View article]
    The Here chairman suddenly left the company a short time ago. What do you think now after the shocking news for Here coming from Paris last week?

    -Volkswagen Audi Group (biggest car manufactur in the word) selected TomTom for real time Maps and real time Traffic to be introduced in their HAD technology. So coming years Here will gradually loose this customer.

    -Toyota Europe selected TomTom

    -Daimler Benz selected TomTom for Smart (worldwide)

    -Bosch (one of the biggest suppliers to Automotive) selected TomTom real time Maps and real time Traffic for their HAD technology. That new technology is going to be used by many many car manufacturers coming 10 years.


    Conclusion: after Fiat-Chrysler, Renault, Peugeot Citroen PSA, now also the Germans and Japanese are switching from Here to TomTom.
    Oct 8, 2014. 05:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GPS Firms On Track [View article]
    Garmin has NO content themselves. So NO Maps and NO real-time Traffic.
    Their marketshare in Automotive is very very limited. It's 80% Nokia-Here and 20% TomTom.


    TomTom has. Leading Maps+technology + leading real-time Traffic!

    So TomTom last weeks won mega deals:
    -Audi-China
    -Jeep
    -Bosch
    -Volkswagen Group
    -Daimler Smart
    -Toyota Europe

    (TomTom already has mega contracts with Fiat-Chrysler, Renault, Peugeot Citroen and many many other car manufacturers)

    Apple Maps =TomTom Maps + some Apple POI-databases (which caused the errors at introduction)
    BlackBerry Maps =TomTom Maps
    Oct 6, 2014. 04:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Continuing Execution Will Lead To Large PPS Gains In The Short, Medium, And Long Term [View article]
    The news from Paris is really shocking for Here:

    -mega deal Volkswagen Audi Group won by TomTom (highly automated driving); means that Here loses their biggest customerl VAG is the biggest carmanufacurer in the world

    -second biggest carmanufacturer Toyota closed a deal with TomTom for real-time Traffic in Europe

    -Daimler Benz worldwide contract for Smart is won by TomTom


    So now we understand the problem Here is facing; they will loose significant marketshare to TomTom because TomTom is delivering superiuor technology to carmanufacturers; HAD will be the dominant factor in Automotive for the coming 10 years and TomTom has won that battle.
    Oct 6, 2014. 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Continuing Execution Will Lead To Large PPS Gains In The Short, Medium, And Long Term [View article]
    Nothing serious; only the smartwatch.
    Oct 6, 2014. 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Garmin, A Hapless Fellow Under Fire From 3 Giants In The Name Of Apple, Google And Samsung [View article]
    Garmin has a very very limited position inside cars. Only some hardware and software but no Maps and no Traffic. There are hardly models of known carmanufacturers to find using this. Carmanufacturers buy their hardware from Harman and Continental. And their Maps/Traffic from Here and TomTom.
    Garmin mainly sells PND's (personal navigation devices) to the after market; together with TomTom they share the market.

    Gramin owns NO Maps itself (only 3 worldplayers ar: Google, Here, TomTom);
    Google is for internet/smartphones and doesn't have a marketshare in Automotive either. They only have online solutions and that is not what carmanufacturers need inside their cars (reliabe offline maps/navigation combined with online traffic).
    Marketshare in Automotive is 80% Here and 20% TomTom.

    Apple Maps = 98% TomTom Maps + some Apple software/data
    Apple CarPlay = 99,99% TomTom Maps and Traffic and software

    As Garmin has no content of its own and licences Here Maps, they will loose the car and smartphone battle. TomTom is winning the car battle with their innovative real time Maps and real time Traffic (they also offer this as Apple CarPlay and it is avaiable as app in Google's car solutions). This quality is what the connnected car needs and especially the highly automated driving cars of the future.
    Sep 26, 2014. 10:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Continuing Execution Will Lead To Large PPS Gains In The Short, Medium, And Long Term [View article]
    Excellent and compact article about EPS in coming quarters. When it comes to HERE I have my doubts.

    You write:
    "HERE holds 80 percent of pre-installed mapping solutions with carmakers, and is obviously looking to monetize on a large scale the way that all devices will use mapping in the future, as well as to have a hand in the progression of driverless vehicles."

    Google isn't a competitor in Automotive as they only offer online maps and those rely on expensive and non-reliable dataconnnections. The only competitor in Automotive is TomTom.
    Where Here only has very little marketshare in smartphones, Google and TomTom (Apple Maps = TomTom Maps + some Apple data) dominate. Nevertheless Here invested heavily in this segment and maybe they will growth from 3% to 4%-5% marketshare coming years. Not a big deal and their only chance is Windows Phone.
    Biggest problem of Here is that all those smartphone investments are not going to pay out. So better to sell this division to a large player like Microsoft (maybe they already have first rights) , Facebook, Yahoo, Samsung or Alibaba (they recently aready bought the China Maps of Autonavi for 1 billion; Here is worth at least 6 billion).

    The 80% marketshare in Automotive is under very heavy pressure of TomTom which is introducing real-time Maps in Automotive. Last year TomTom worldwide already won all deals in real-time Traffic. In the car nowadays it's about real-time Maps and real-time Traffic. So maybe within 5 years TomTom will gain 80% marketshare in Automotive.
    Recently the general manager of Here suddenly left the company. Not the best sign.
    Sep 26, 2014. 08:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Convincing Reasons To Buy Nokia On The Pullback [View article]
    In Automotive it's all about real-time Maps and real-time Traffic.
    You should read latest tests in the USA and Germany.

    My observation is that Nokia will be losing marketshare in this new world of (almost) real-time of Maps and Traffic which will be needed in Automotive.
    Nevertheless the Automotive market offers high growth opportunities for TomTom and Nokia-Here (take-rate of in dash systems will rise from now around 22% to 99.99 % in the coming 5-10 years).

    Last year worldwide 100% of the realtime-Traffic deals already were won by TomTom; including Mercedes-Benz, Toyota, Ford, Audi-China etc. plus AOL, Total Traffic & Wheater Network USA.

    Apple is using TomTom-inside
    BlackBerry is using TomTom-insiide
    Samsung Bada is using TomTom-inside

    But let's see what will happen coming 6-12 months with the new deals in Automotive.

    Currently the new real-time Platform of TomTom is tested by lots of carmanufacturers and being part of lots of research projects in the area of highly automoted driving cars. TomTom itself says that they never had as many new quotations i Automotive as ever before.
    Jul 25, 2014. 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Convincing Reasons To Buy Nokia On The Pullback [View article]
    It takes some time before new contracts in Automotive will change those numbers. Last year TomTom had 100% of the new contracts worldwide in real-time Traffic. In 2014 the numbers will change slightly but in 2015 this will speed up as TomTom has some big new contracts come (Peugeot-Citroen) into the market.

    My estimation is that within a couple of years these market shares in the connected-car market will be 50% Nokia-Here and 50% TomTom.

    There are serious rumours in the market that also Volkswagen Group will switch to TomTom. Recently Audi-China already did.

    Within the smartphone market TomTom is the supplier of Apple, BlackBerry, Samsung (Bada) and Nokia-Here is the supplier of Microsoft.
    Jul 22, 2014. 04:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Convincing Reasons To Buy Nokia On The Pullback [View article]
    In location based services and connected driving solutions Nokia will face stronger competetion from TomTom. Still marketgrowth will be gigantic as only 20-25% of the new cars are delivered with an in dash screen/solution. This will rise to almost 100% in the coming years. The number of drivers will rise from 1 billion in 2014 to 4 billion in 2050.
    TomTom real-time Maps and real-time Traffic are superior. Last year 100% of the traffic deals worldwide were gained by TomTom (Mercedes-Benz, Toyota, Ford, TTWN, AOL, Audi-China etc.etc.).
    Also Apple, BlackBerry and Samsung (Bada) are using TomTom-inside.

    Google has no offline maps so their online maps are depending on an expensive and a fragile mobile data connection, so not reliable enough to be used in automotive. Waze traffic sucks when compared to TomTom real-time Traffic.
    Jul 22, 2014. 04:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Google Is Easily 15% Undervalued [View article]
    Google has no monopoly on driverless cars, and will not have either. Carmanufacturers already are working in this area for a longer time and don't need Google.
    Besides that their customers won't like Big Brother Google to be inside their cars and handling the data. They'll trust on the advanced technology of BMW, Audi, Mercedes-Benz, GM, Ford, Toyota etc.etc. and their partners like Continental, Bosch, TomTom, Harman etc.etc..

    Advanced Maps inside cars have only 2 suppliers: Nokia-HERE and TomTom.
    (Here is also used by Microsoft, TomTom by Apple, BlackBerry, Samsung Bada, AOL, TTWN, etc.)
    TomTom is the only supplier of real-time Maps that are available in a car by an offline version where Google only offers online that is dependant of a fragile mobile data-connection. Good luck when this data connection fails.
    Jul 21, 2014. 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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