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OpusNephilim

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  • Five energy stocks liked by billionaires that could stage a comeback [View news story]
    I hope your TLM average-down went well wecap: yesterday's news was about as high as its going to get. I hope that damn near doubled your money.
    Dec 16, 2014. 11:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PBR - Close Your Eyes And Buy [View instapost]
    Why? They still haven't published their quarterly report, and have stated they will not until 31 JAN 15. That's the unaudited one, wherein they'll discuss write-down values of over stated assets. Between then and the audited report would likely be one's best buy-in value. IMHO. It has a ways to go down yet.
    Dec 16, 2014. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petrobras: Trust The Valuations And Fundamentals [View article]
    caret311, I don't know if you're long PBR or not, but I ran over some numbers and press releases with some friends over the weekend. We help each other with contrarian plays. One is amassing a position now, so either he's drinking my kool-aid or it just made sense to him. Either way, we've detirmined the following major factors that will compound to make the coming weeks the worst yet, then some rebound:

    Petrobras delayed twice in one weekend to report write down values. Bad news for this week.

    Petrobras reiterated a 31 Jan 15 timeline for the first time in a while, and that's not good news. No stability can come without that report, so the longer they take, the worse. PBR will take a beating perhaps until then.

    Petrobras has responded to all civil suits: thats kind of good news, as it shows a slight change in pace. They've historically been mum on all court issues until they're ordered to compensate (if civil) or indicted/subpeoned (criminal/inquiry).

    Petrobras production is at all time peaks. Refining as well. Pretty good news.

    Petrobras has not released any information on debt coverage that they state secures them from the market for the next year (which implies they either have enough debt coverage to pay back all investors they'd have to if they break a debt covenant or they are VERY confident they shan't have need to AND they have enough coverage to run expansion plans.

    There has been mention of slowing growth, but no dialogue on metrics: how will they slow, what will they slow, etc.

    The board discussed, additionally, an increase to the government regulated price of refined product sales: no discussion at all by how much, when, and which products (jet fuel for example has been pretty much left alone for a very long time).

    Finally, ms. Foster suggested firing the entire board to Ms. Rousseff, and two economic ministers (state level) wrote articles in Brazilian publications on why privatizing is likely the best play. No follow up or comments from PBR or Ms. Rousseff on either.
    Dec 15, 2014. 10:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Petrobras: Trust The Valuations And Fundamentals [View article]
    Caret: I have a fairly large position, (in relation to my whole portfolio) of roughly 17000 shares. I'm in the red roughly 40k at the moment, unrealized loss. I'll hold on for two more quarters, perhaps longer depending on what happens in the coming months (leadership changes, price adjustments on the Brasilian market) etc.

    It is painful to watch an investment plunge so far into the depths. I expanded my position around the 9 USD level, and have increased holdings on the way down to lower my average cost per share. I am with you on this ride. I understand I may well be entirely wrong in this, the following, which is why I am calm and holding on:

    Suits from the US class action side will not affect a large portion of outstanding shares, so the costs will be relative to those who sold at a loss just before the oil price drop.

    ELECTROBRAS and PETROBRAS working together to use the recent contract of petrol for electric plants as a debt collateral will lower borrowing requirements and keep the debt in reals.

    The Board of Petrobras has already found ways to avoid accessing the debt market for the next 12 months; this provides time to balance the books.

    The increase of petrol prices (retail) on 27 November currently has refined products selling at a 20% premium to any other market in the world: an insulated market for the PBR low-cost import mechanisms.

    The Graft and Corruption estimates include the entire asset if a part of an asset was aquired thus: those numbers regulate next quarter.

    The massive investigation against PBR and the related lawsuits will not exceed the asssets recovered under the investigation.

    The current prodcution numbers of PBR are an all time high, again selling in an insulated market.

    Upon conculsion of all investigations, the firm will be the most transparent multinat around. The Justice Department, the SEC, Brasilian Federal and State courts are all investigating.

    This will get worse before it gets better. 5 USD will hurt... but provide a good way for those of us who think similar to myself to add to our position and hold for the next 8-12 months.
    Dec 14, 2014. 02:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Petrobras: Trust The Valuations And Fundamentals [View article]
    GrowthGeek:

    It seems that many writers and readers alike do not understand that the price of petrol products in Brasil are not reactionary to the market price of crude. PBR sells 98% of all petrol products in Brasil. They do not presently produce that much, that's how much they sell. They import and sell what they can't produce on their own. Over the past four years that was quite a bad deal for them as the government regulated price of patrol was below that of crude+shipping+refining. Over the past few years there had been some increases to that price, though never enough to fully cover costs... the last increase was two days before the collapse of oil last month. There has been no decrease. PetroBras can now import and sell 100% of national demand at a profit without touching their own expensive to exploit reserves. They can even buy and hold in reserve excess.

    You're entirely right that the PwC financials issue is a headwind we will see hinder price until PetroBras publishes audited financials, and that the corruption scandal will hinder until shortly after the exact write-down numbers are published. The falling Real is an issue, at present, but as the board of PetroBras has stated, they might not seek external debt this year, which would be a massive financial improvement, and as discussed above, the falling oil price is a good thing for PetroBras. Considering market emotions and financials, next quarterly report (February) should see some stability in PBR, and the one thereafter (May) should see a fine rebound.
    Dec 13, 2014. 12:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Petrobras: Trust The Valuations And Fundamentals [View article]
    Well said, my good sir.
    Dec 6, 2014. 03:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petrobras: Trust The Valuations And Fundamentals [View article]
    I see a lot of comments stating this is a speculative stock. I'd personally disagree. Its quite contrarian. We have seen that the price of this stock trades off of emotions more than facts time and time again. This time around, however, that negative emotion is masking something much bigger: We know that PBR sells refined products at a regulated state price, generally a discount, to control inflation. The price of gasoline was raised by the government of Brasil just prior to the collapse of ppb of crude. This means PBR is turning a profit on each gallon for the first time in a long time. Furthermore, PBRs new projects are coming on line, one of which came on line the same day legal teams released notes that they would not sign off on quarterlies. Furthermore, we all know that there could be a massive asset adjustment that would devalue the company's holdings... couple this with debt downgrades, and we see only two options: A government bailout or an issue of stock (devaluing stock price). Either way, this is a win. The government of Brasil is hugely invested in this company now, charges against sitting senators, potential the president herself, and a plan to recoup losses of overbilling are in place... a stock issuance of the mark down of assets to fund debt would be greater than the stake difference of the government and the private sector, thus potentially privatizing the company... furthermore, the investigation into state control just concluded that the state is exercising more control than their shares allow, the union of PBR workers the same. This gives slightly more power to shareholders, and also sets a precedent, legally, for shareholder recourse. I'm into PBR agian. The short term is negative. Buying at the greatest discount will be a test of timing... but the mid and long term is positive. Give it two quarters and we should see PBR recover to 13-15 USD/ADR and in four it might well be one of the top five it dreams of being.
    Dec 5, 2014. 01:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras' (PBR) CEO Maria das Gra├žas Foster on Q3 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    I agree entirely. Considering what we see here as a price manipulation and graft to support the ruling political party, the concurrent use of the company for currency and price index manipulation becomes more important. To scale back the latter and prevent the former shall make for a much stronger PetroBras.
    Nov 18, 2014. 08:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Slumbering Oil Giant Is About To Awaken [View article]
    Did you mean PBR?
    Jul 21, 2013. 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Oil Company Is The Cheapest? [View article]
    Does anyone track EOG? Or am I alone here on that one?
    Jul 10, 2013. 09:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Oil Company Is The Cheapest? [View article]
    Thank you for the thoughtful and insightful presentation/article.
    Jul 10, 2013. 07:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What iPhone 5 Discounts Could Mean [View article]
    The best line in the article, to me, is when discussion picks up at an analyst stating inventories run at 10 weeks, currently, which is "far bellow three months" I feel like two weeks, directly prior to release, is not "far" by any measure... but apparently some disagree?

    Well written article... just not a useful one. Seems to be looking for issues where there are none. I feel AAPL has plenty of issues to focus on, this isn't one of them.
    Jun 26, 2013. 02:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Truth About Apple [View article]
    Keep It Simple... you do well at keeping to your name's principle. Well done, sir.
    Jun 19, 2013. 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Truth About Apple [View article]
    Effectively, one who works for a company is given stock option to purchase shares in the company's program as an employment benefit (effectively a writ, or legal ground to purchase shares at the current market price)... thus some folks at AAPL might have writs to purchase shares at dirt cheap from a long time ago... then either after a certain date or a certain share price is struck, as filed with the SEC by the company, the employee may purchase the shares for the price at the time of the writ/stock option, and sell them on the market at their current value, potentially making massive gains.

    That said, those shares, often times, did not exist at the time of the writ, and have to be created by the company at the time of the date/strike price OR upon option exercise.

    In any case, AAPL is well aware of how many stock options its employees have at all times, which is why that first buy-back is wonderful... prettty much negating float growth from options.... especially in conjunction with the bigger, bad-er second buy back plan which reduces the float size.
    Jun 19, 2013. 09:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Truth About Apple [View article]
    That's not really true darturtle. The first buy back of AAPL stock was to stem the increase in the float, as it had risen over the past few years especially, and the number of potential options to be cashed was high. This first buy back thus caps the float to roughly the same as it was in 2010.

    The second, much larger, buy back that is ongoing reduces the float. Thus your observation is incorrect in the idea of providing short term support. Rather, the float decreases, EPS increases (provided AAPL earnings grow, stay flat, or shrink less than the float by percentage).

    The second axiom of your thesis DOES make sense, buy backs are diminished if AAPL staff exercise their options, however, that is figured in with the first buy back.
    Jun 19, 2013. 08:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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