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  • Praise rolls in for LinkedIn's Q2 results, long-term opportunities [View news story]
    I bought LNKD puts today as a more fair value is $170 and this move only makes the forward earnings expectations a 70x price at $170 and this seems bubbly enough considering their are always risks pricing a stock out a year when we don't know who is coming up with competitive products next. Considering, it is just a website that most anyone can create.
    Aug 1 06:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Amazon's Cash Machine Faltering? [View article]
    did you short when you sold at the all time high? where will you cover and go long again?
    Aug 1 05:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Amazon's Cash Machine Faltering? [View article]
    Woo hoot. the 290AUG puts I got at $324.50 are up over 100% today and I took some off the table and re-entered them at $317.50 and look at the shares afterhours ... this thing is going down below $300 for sure in the short term and money to be made.
    Aug 1 05:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Earnings Estimates Revisions [View article]
    Plus, where will AMZN get the money to fund expansion into this poor country? They already have $5,000,000,000 in debt ... sell more notes? This is insanity and it feels more and more like disaster is around the corner.
    Aug 1 12:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Earnings Estimates Revisions [View article]
    I'm already up on my puts bought at $324.50 ... thanks for the great articles. Most importantly and simple to see for everyone... EARNINGS or lack thereof. AMZN has not beat earnings for over a year now. One time they met the expectations and the rest missed ... clearly they are ignoring the markets expectations and marching to own drum. This is not the way to behave unless you are a private company. Institutions are selling every morning as you can see from the chart action. They pain the tape early and then give up as there are simply not enough retail buyers to pick up the enormous positions they wish to unload. How they all unwind orderly is beyond me. They know that AMZN is a liquidity risk that could implode on itself... interesting to watch.

    Good luck trading! Thanks a million times over for your insight Paulo. HAVE followed your analysis for some time. Eventually the truth is reflected in the stock and you only hope that you have timed things right and profit.

    I'm short AMZN BKS FUN BIO DAVE ... all are beating the market lower.
    Put all my retirement to cash weeks ago... bit early but I felt right about it.
    Aug 1 12:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Bought After It Dropped 10% [View article]
    Next support is $308 and then $285 and then $250 ... good luck trading. I have the $290 puts. This will go lower. The weekly move to $360 was an ABC corrective on the weekly. First drop was $404 to $284 ... $120 .. expect a similar drop from $360 ... target $240 to $260. This company makes no money, makes no plans to make profits. Is in love with debt and expansion and is a liquidity risk.
    Aug 1 12:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barnes & Noble's Split Doesn't Fix Underlying Problem [View article]
    I'm short AMZN and BKS and up on both. AMZN is hungry for market share but is ignorant to its failing balance sheet. BKS is in a losing business that will continue to shrink as families have tighter budgets. Our family has not bought a book in years and uses the public library. Energy and Food costs are simply too high for us to spend on stuff to fill our tiny house. We are net sellers of things in our house and net buyers of fun that does not fill our home with clutter.

    BKS will be in the teens again soon and as the business continues to do worse and worse ... the large foot print stores will be a hindrance.

    AMZN will suffer an illiquid situation should any minor interruption in the business occurs or lenders stop lending them cheap cash. This company has increased the debt on the books 10 fold in 5 years. Now has $5,000,0000,0000 in debt as per the latest filings. This is insane. They use the excuse that the company is growing. However, many growing profitable companies don't need to debt to grow as they have something every business should strive for... PROFITS!

    Short AMZN , BKS and sit back and wait for them to find their true value. It will come to those who are patient. Stocks to buy are those that grow and profit. BKS and AMZN do not fit this rule.

    Good luck trading/investing.
    Jul 31 10:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Thursday's Sell-Off Matters [View article]
    see my comment below. See if $COMPQ hits 4250 and holds in the next month or so. this should clean out traders with monster margin debt.
    Jul 31 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Thursday's Sell-Off Matters [View article]
    Why not put the 100 200 300 400 500 day moving averages and note the market is above all those too .... lol. But seriously. IF $COMPQ breaches the recent supports of 4365, which is extremely likely based on the fundamentals of many company balance sheets getting debt heavy and dangerous. All I really watch is the 13sma and the 26,2 BB ... I have puts that i've been buying over the past weeks out to AUG SEP and OCT expiries.

    Put on a daily chart with the 13 and 26sma on this chart and you can see how the price action lately has killed the up trend.

    4,000 to 4488 is the latest move .... a 50% pull back in the COMPQ seems reasonable due to nosebleed valuations like TWTR at 500X ... see how FB pulled back after earnings ... same for TWTR once scared shorts are squeezed out.

    I say the NASDAQ $COMPQ heads back to 4250. The move up took from MID APRIL until JULY ... 2.5months. Since declines usually come faster as fear is stronger than greed and the market is held up on MARGIN debt that will be called and force more selling .... Say less than 2 months we see 4250 and then see how the market acts there.

    I'm short AMZN BKS EXPD FUN BIO ... AMZN BKS and FUN are longer term positions based on the stocks horrid balance sheets.

    Good luck trading!
    Jul 31 06:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Come To Jesus' Earnings Report [View article]
    And ... if you look at current liabilities to cash ... even worse. The balance sheet is also padded on the asset side. This helped my conviction to buy puts at $324.50 ... good luck trading!

    Long term debt for AMZN has grown 10x in 5 years I believe. The excuse.. growth. CMG debt has grown? CMG has grown ... no debt! You don't need debt to grow a good business that turns a profit like CMG. You do need it if you don't know how to make a profit .... AMZN stinks!
    Jul 31 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Come To Jesus' Earnings Report [View article]
    Good JOB , Paulo!

    We will have our day with this momo mess of a stock. Next stop is $308 and then maybe a day or two pause and then $285 and then .... ?? I have the $290 puts and up money despite waiting to buy them at $324.50 on earnings day. I'm surprised it held up this good to be honest. Though it would test the earnings lows yesterday lol.

    You can only go into so much debt and do so poorly for so long and not beat earnings so many times before the market for your stock loses dip buyers.

    FIVE(5) QUARTERS without beating lowered estimates... pathetic!

    I own AMZN BIO DAVE FUN BKS EXPD short ....
    mostly in puts. Good luck trading!
    Jul 31 05:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Bought After It Dropped 10% [View article]
    Why I have AMZN puts and why I went long AMZN today at $313.27 and sold a minute later at $313.94 ... because this is how long anyone should hold a stock that has missed earnings so many times and has not beat earnings estimates despite the low bar for 5 quarters straight. Stay away from investing in this stock as it now can be day traded only... who knows how low it will go as it is worth at best $100.
    Jul 31 05:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Expect $200, Not $400 [View article]
    Makes sense. My short term target is $250... in the next month or two. This stock should hold around here until the next earnings release imo. Unless of course we see this ugly balance sheet get worse. All I know is the uptrend is clearly over as the pull backs during the uptrend were at most $40 and now this stock has fallen $100 from the highs.

    The excuse the price is going up because AMZN is growing is ridiculous. AMZN is growing it's long term debt.

    Compare the debt AMZN has taken on to grow to that of CMG. Both growth stocks. CMG is growing using its profits. AMZN is growing using hype and debt. We all have seen this story before... and it does not end well ... ever. I love the chart for SHORT here... the fundamentals back the chart up which is nice.
    Jul 28 01:22 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Come To Jesus' Earnings Report [View article]
    YOU are full of good points Paulo and appreciate all you have done. LOOK at CMG ... here is a company growing quickly and .... has earnings! how novel. Don't be shorting CMG ... CMG is like most well run companies. They earn profits and invest them in new locations if a new location makes sense. AMZN takes on debt to grow because they don't know how to turn a profit. Profit is a basic need for any business. Profit is the goal.

    I'm short AMZN ...
    Jul 28 01:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Come To Jesus' Earnings Report [View article]
    My daughter ordered 3 books. 2 arrived. Email after email has come in stating the 3rd book will come.. be patient. Three months has passed and they still say the 3rd book will come. If it does, they will lose money on it. The shipping was free and they ate that on the 2 they sent and now they must eat the shipping on the 3rd book should they ship it. This is a zero profit game. Trying to simply do more than they can handle imo.

    On another note, I've seen post after post on line about AMZN giving customers $35 credits for their failures in service big and small. So, how many times do they ship orders in two packages instead of one? How many $35 credits do they hand out as apologies? This might explain further why they can't turn a profit.
    Jul 28 01:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment