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DSymons

DSymons
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  • Why I Am Buying More Baker Hughes [View article]
    Brian - most readers of this article understand the math, so I am sorry to labour the point. However, your reference to 34 per cent in the comment above can't go uncommented upon. On Friday bhi closed at 56.56. Under the terms of the deal shareholders receive $19 and 1.12 HAL shares. HAL shares closed on Friday at $39.13. Do the math on that and BHI shareholders are being offered consideration worth $62.83 for each BHI share held. That's an 11 per cent premium to the BHI price.
    Jan 17, 2015. 06:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Buying More Baker Hughes [View article]
    I feel compelled to repeat what the commentators above have noted.

    This article is so bad it should not have been published.

    Marking to market for the current price of HAL shares the arb in this deal is circa 10% - there is no basis at all on which to claim it is 40%.

    I haven't read Brian Nichols work before - so I don't know whether this article is representative of his general level of sophistication. However, the error is so basic and so glaring that this piece should be taken down forthwith.
    Jan 11, 2015. 02:39 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avita Medical: A Comprehensive Look At An Unknown Company With A Transcendent Technology [View article]
    1) the company was founded by Fiona wood - a former Australian of the year - based on research activity she undertook in Perth, Western Australia

    2) the company is an Australian entity and is listed on asx and not on a uk exchange (http://bit.ly/1yaEg79)

    3) the chairman lives in Melbourne, Australia.

    4) the registered address of the company is
    Level 9, The Quadrant
    1 William Street
    Perth, Western Australia 6000
    Oct 9, 2014. 06:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avita Medical: A Comprehensive Look At An Unknown Company With A Transcendent Technology [View article]
    Jason - do you not realise that this is an Australian company? Or do you think that Australia is part of the United Kingdom?

    Is the rest of your research and analysis more credible than your knowledge of geography?
    Oct 8, 2014. 05:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Disturbing Facts About Montage Technology [View article]
    Atlanta - I lost a little money on HRBN. The most credible explanation that I saw in the washup to how it came to be taken over despite the strong indicia of fraud related to land ownership - I'm sure that I recall reading was that they were big land owners which was shown on balance sheet at a deep discount to current market value.
    May 21, 2014. 08:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Veeva Systems Is Extremely Oversold [View article]
    And another thing......you might want to check how much of the recent secondary was primary issuance as opposed to secondary sell down?
    Apr 14, 2014. 04:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Veeva Systems Is Extremely Oversold [View article]
    Abba's Aces - when the history books are written on the pricking of the SAAS price bubble, Suhail Capital's incredibly impressive work on VEEVA is going to be front and centre.

    Seeking Alpha's part in spreading the word will be an important element of this tale.

    It seems incredible that you would write about this stock on the same platform - alongside one of the greats - and not even seek to distinguish your views from those of Suhail.

    Lockup expiry today! Tick tock. Let's see how your footnote reads in the history book.
    Apr 14, 2014. 04:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Veeva Systems: A Top 20 Competitive Displacement, Customer Dissatisfaction, DB Markets Research, And Strange Coincidences [View article]
    Can anyone confirm exactly how many shares come out of lockup on 14 April?
    Apr 12, 2014. 02:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Springleaf Holdings Is A Big Winner In A Post-Crisis Financial World [View article]
    Possibly a silly question. . .. . but I was reading the short case on World Acceptance the other day. Is Springleaf exposed to similar regulatory risk, or is it a materially more compliant business?
    Feb 12, 2014. 10:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Chuy's Is Not The Next Chipotle [View article]
    There is at least one arithmetic error in your analysis. You have understated the implied value of each CMG location by around 90%.

    If you had 1,500 restaurants each worth $1 million, then CMG would have a market cap of $1.5 billion. It is in fact 10x that.
    Jan 29, 2014. 07:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill Valued At Over $10 Million A Restaurant [View article]
    I don't purport to be expert in comparative restaurant valuation.

    However - to what extent do the different business models of these companies make the valuation metrics irrelevant? There are two key factors that spring to mind here:

    1) Whether the stores are company owned or franchise operated? (here in Australia I think the majority of McDonald's stores are franchises, while my understanding is that all CMG stores are company owned)

    2) Whether the company owns the real estate on which its stores sit? (I don't know whether any of these companies have significant property holdings? Maybe not?)

    Thoughts?
    Jan 21, 2014. 01:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Veeva's #1 Biopharma Customer CRM Contract Loss: A Red Flag Like No Other [View article]
    In the last few days we've seen Suhail's bona fides attacked by a number of relatively new faces - here, on yahoo, on twitter. Generally the haters are alleging that the whole Genentech thing is a storm in a tea cup because it doesn't affect the forward estimates. This is what's known as a straw man argument - they're attacking Suhail for something they never said.

    But then there are the subpoints that the supposed long investors are raising - like that Genentech wasn't really a customer loss, more like collateral damage from the Roche merger as Roche wanting to get the combined business onto the one platform.

    This too is totally flawed and wrong. A bit of google sleuthing throws up some interesting tidbits.

    http://bit.ly/1ePSwr8
    You can see in the link above that Genentech didn't get dragged kicking and screaming to a platform that their Roche overlords insisted on. Oh no - they pulled a team together to spend EIGHT MONTHS researching the absolute best CRM ipad app that money and ingenuity could build. It looks like they did the research in the spring, and development in the summer of 2013.

    And are they proud of the product? You bet they are. Check out the video:

    http://bit.ly/1ePSwra
    Jan 17, 2014. 05:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Veeva: 'Back To School' [View article]
    Good to see that VEEVA has now risen to the challenge and removed the word "Genentech" from the web site media summary of the CNBC yarn:

    http://bit.ly/1eOAFkq

    but they don't yet appear to have persuaded CNBC to doctor the original copy:

    http://cnb.cx/1eOAGEW__source=msn|money|hea...
    Jan 16, 2014. 06:30 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Veeva Systems: Digging Deeper Into The Madness [View article]
    leopardtrader - I'm quite a simple fellow, but I have read and critically analysed 50+ short theses over the last five years. The short case on VEEV is in the top 3 that I have read.

    You claim to bring a "commonsense approach by exploiting mis-pricing due to stupidity prevalent in the market." I agree that there is a mis-pricing prevalent in the pricing of VEEV securities, however I believe them to be grossly overpriced.

    I understand that you do not wish to become engaged in a "verbal bazaar", and I have no intention of leading you down this path. However, while you have asserted above that you believe the short case to have no merit, I would be interested in understanding the basis for your implied claim that the stock is priced at lower than fair value.

    Would you be kind enough to explain the basis on which you believe VEEV securities to be underpriced relative to fair value? Which metrics do you believe to be pertinent to this analysis?
    Jan 6, 2014. 05:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • STR Holdings - A 'Cigar Butt' Worth Several More Puffs [View article]
    Oops . . .. the math in your "negative enterprise value" example is wrong. The house in your example has an EV of $100k, NOT negative $100k.
    Jan 2, 2014. 05:02 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
31 Comments
41 Likes