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Lucas_Wyrsch

Lucas_Wyrsch
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  • Russia's Gazprom, European Energy And U.S. Oil And Shale Gas: Shorting Russia? [View article]
    Here's What Ukraine's Poroshenko Should Offer Vladimir Putin Next Week In Minsk http://onforb.es/1ppncpj

    Here's How Obama's Russia Sanctions Will Destroy Vladimir Putin: http://onforb.es/1rEUPCx
    Aug 23 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia's Gazprom, European Energy And U.S. Oil And Shale Gas: Shorting Russia? [View article]
    It can also go down to $0! Why? Because the West can push Gaszprom to bankruptcy through steadily increased sanctions!

    We're the first time in a nuclear power plant in a war zone situation where two nuclear power plant countries, Russia and Ukraine, are at war!

    What do we really know from Fukushima?

    "Only luck and real courage at 14 nuclear reactors on ‪Japan‬’s Pacific coast overcame the ‪‎technical‬ ‪‎failures‬ of nuclear power and prevented the ‪#‎nation‬ from being ‪destroyed‬ by ‪radiation‬" wrote Arnie Gundersen, a former nuclear industry senior vice president and licensed reactor operator here: http://bit.ly/1tvs8ZU

    And former Japanese PM Naoto Kan urges Australia to wean world off uranium, focus on renewables: http://ab.co/1tvsbou

    Coming back to Russian Federation where the main problem is that almost all Russian exports consists of four main components:

    1. nuclear power plants,
    2. nuclear fuel,
    3. fossil fuels like oil, gas and coal and
    4. weapons and ammunition

    In other words, Russian Federation doesn't innovate, its entire exports are focused on fossil and nuclear energy, war and destruction!
    Aug 23 09:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting USA Trust I - 35%-Plus Arbitrage Profit Opportunity [View article]
    Dear All,

    How can we know if WHX is extremely overvalued in the context of a continuous worsening of the geopolitical situation in Russia that may invade Eastern Ukraine and create reciprocal embargo on oil, gas and nuclear fuel?

    Imagine the gold price in 2001 at around $250 and ten years later on September at over $1,900 and you get the picture!
    http://bit.ly/1oURKdp

    If the geopolitical crisis between Russia and Ukraine is worsening, the price of shale oil and shale gas could go much higher, twice, three times or even more the actual price and this within days, weeks and months!

    Don't think such statical financial data make really sense in a time when for the first time in human history we have nuclear power plants in a war zone!

    Keep in mind that Ukraine generates 47% of its electricity through nuclear power plants and Russian Federation 17%

    The MH17 Crash showed us the irrational behavior of wars!

    If Russian start to bomb Ukraine's infrastructure and hit one or even more Ukrainian nuclear power plants by accident, we might have in Europe a nuclear winter!

    Think and grow rich!

    Have fun and take care!

    Best,

    Lucas

    PS: When I first mentioned the geopolitical risk one year age, Russian hasn't even invaded Crimea and the world still seemed very peaceful compared to now!
    Aug 18 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia's Gazprom, European Energy And U.S. Oil And Shale Gas: Shorting Russia? [View article]
    Thank you PSalerno for your comment and for sharing!

    The Russian natural gas can be compensated through other sources of energy easily!

    Rosneft asks Putin for $42bn loan < http://bbc.in/1qcs9Om >

    Sanctions won't certainly continue and amplify as "Heavy Russian Military Equipment Is Joining The 'Aid' Convoy To Eastern Ukraine" < http://read.bi/1qcsbWj >

    Cannot see a reduction of sanctions coming anytime soon!
    Aug 15 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia's Gazprom, European Energy And U.S. Oil And Shale Gas: Shorting Russia? [View article]
    Wrong PSalerno

    It's good for EU as EU closes a trade deficit with Russia of $74.8 billion!

    It's certainly bad for Russia but this is the real intent!
    Aug 14 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia's Gazprom, European Energy And U.S. Oil And Shale Gas: Shorting Russia? [View article]
    Thank you Mr Cliff Fiscal for your message and for sharing Zoltan Ban's article "Ukraine Crisis: The Beginning Of The EU-Russia Economic War" with me!

    I totally disagree with his article because we really don't need to import anything from Russian Federation, whatsoever, that would be of vital interest to us!

    Having a closer look to Russian exports < http://bit.ly/1pPCbHQ > what do we find?

    Russian Federation exported in 2012 goods for a total of $542.5 billion

    1. Netherlands 14.6% or $79.2 billion
    2. People's Republic of China 6.8%
    3. Germany 6.8% or $33.9 billion
    4. Italy 6.2% or 33.6 billion
    5. Turkey 5.2%
    6. Ukraine 5.2%
    7. Belarus 4.7%

    and it imported in 2012 goods for a total of $358.1 billion

    1. People's Republic of China 16.6%
    2. Germany 12.2% or $43.7 billion
    3. Ukraine 5.7%
    4. Japan 5%
    5. United States 4.9%
    6. France 4.4% or $15.8 billion
    7. Italy 4.3% or $15.4 billion

    In other words EU (Netherlands, Germany and Italy) imported from Russian Federation goods for $149.7 billion and exportet to Russian Federation for $74.9 billion!

    A total embargo against Russian Federation would create a loss for Russian Federation of $74.8 billion and a plus for European Union as it would have finished its trade deficit with Russia!

    The EU would be a winner in total sanction against Russian Federation, while Russia would be losing $149.7 billion!

    Russian imports of $149.7 billion, measured to EU's GDP of $15.83 trillion in PPP would be 0.95% while on the other hand these exports of $149.7 billion measured to Russia's GDP of $$2.52 trillion in PPP represent a loss of 5.9% and will very seriously hit Russian Federation but only slightly hit Itay, Germany and France!

    EU has to stop to subsidize an aggressive country that doesn't respect international law and that's what is happening actually!

    Wish you a great and happy Thursday!

    Best,

    Lucas
    Aug 14 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Do Western Sanctions On Russia Mean For Russian Companies? [View article]
    Dear xtian13, Italy just entered into recession and its market, its GDP is the same size as Russian Federation!

    Have read an amazing article from Forbes yesterday regarding the gas reservoir in Ukraine by Loren Thompson "New Energy Sources: How To Make Ukraine More Secure Without Using U.S. Military Forces" < http://onforb.es/1AebscC > that really attracted my attention because of its Shale gas.

    I copy: "You’d think a country that depends on imports for 39% of its energy needs must have limited indigenous reserves, but in Ukraine’s case the opposite is true. The country already produces a significant amount of natural gas and oil domestically using conventional means, and its reserves of recoverable shale gas — gas that must be extracted using newer technology such as fracking — are estimated at 42 trillion cubic feet. That’s over 500 times the country’s current annual rate of consumption. Two major basins where shale gas is known to exist in quantity stretch across the country’s northeastern and southwestern expanses, making it one of Europe’s most promising prospects for new gas exploration."

    Now just imagine the Americans would assist the Ukrainians in how to exploit shale gas, confiscate Russian pipeline as Russian Federation has invaded Crimea, and sell Ukrainian shale gas to the European Union, at lower price, obviously!

    It would be beneficial for both, Ukraine and the EU!

    And I've also read another article from Forbes, I like to share with you, written by Paul Roderick Gregory "Ukraine Officials: Rebels Were Trying To Down A Russian Passenger Plane, To Create Pretext For Invading Ukraine" < http://onforb.es/1Aebu4b >

    And guess why I posted this second article too?

    I think that the EU needs national security, energy security, economic security and environmental security and this is simply impossible from Russian Federation whose new hobby is to accuse all NATO states as NAZIs!

    NO MORE RUSSIAN GOODS IN EU, TOTAL EMBARGO WOULD BE MY SUGGESTION!

    Have fun and take care!

    Best,

    Lucas
    Aug 13 01:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia's Gazprom, European Energy And U.S. Oil And Shale Gas: Shorting Russia? [View article]
    Thank you PSalerno for your great comment!

    Have read an amazing article from Forbes yesterday regarding gas reservoir in Ukraine by Loren Thompson "New Energy Sources: How To Make Ukraine More Secure Without Using U.S. Military Forces" < http://onforb.es/1AebscC > that really attracted my attention because of its Shale gas.

    I copy: "You’d think a country that depends on imports for 39% of its energy needs must have limited indigenous reserves, but in Ukraine’s case the opposite is true. The country already produces a significant amount of natural gas and oil domestically using conventional means, and its reserves of recoverable shale gas — gas that must be extracted using newer technology such as fracking — are estimated at 42 trillion cubic feet. That’s over 500 times the country’s current annual rate of consumption. Two major basins where shale gas is known to exist in quantity stretch across the country’s northeastern and southwestern expanses, making it one of Europe’s most promising prospects for new gas exploration."

    Now just imagine the Americans would assist the Ukrainians in how to exploit shale gas, confiscate Russian pipeline as Russian Federation has invaded Crimea, and sell Ukrainian shale gas to the European Union, at lower price, obviously!

    It would be beneficial for both, Ukraine and the EU!

    And I've also read another article from Forbes, I like to share with you, written by Paul Roderick Gregory "Ukraine Officials: Rebels Were Trying To Down A Russian Passenger Plane, To Create Pretext For Invading Ukraine" < http://onforb.es/1Aebu4b >

    And guess why I posted this second article too?

    I think that the EU needs national security, energy security, economic security and environmental security and this is simply impossible from Russian Federation whose new hobby is to accuse all NATO states as NAZIs!

    NO MORE RUSSIAN GOODS IN EU, TOTAL EMBARGO WOULD BE MY SUGGESTION!

    Have fun and take care!

    Best,

    Lucas
    Aug 13 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia's Gazprom, European Energy And U.S. Oil And Shale Gas: Shorting Russia? [View article]
    Dear PSalerno

    No matter how much gas European Union imports from Russian Federation, fact is that the price of gas actually is $10.52 per Million Metric British Thermal Unit < http://bit.ly/AgahCP > while a US competitor like Whiting sells shale gas for only $5.67 < http://seekingalpha.co... >

    Coming to the point!

    Why should EU's importer pay $10.52 for Russian gas if they can buy American shale gas for only $5.67 or 54% lower?

    Do you have any Cartesian explanation or are you simply trying to protect your own interests in Gazprom?

    Gazprom sells 86% higher than Whiting!!!!!

    Your reasoning about "why the European people should take the burden of sanctions" is simply the most absurd and cynical reasoning, I've ever read!

    EU, I repeat it once again, wins the more it stops imports from Russian Federation in any possible optics!

    Have fun and take care!

    Best,

    Lucas
    Aug 12 08:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Do Western Sanctions On Russia Mean For Russian Companies? [View article]
    To make you and all readers understand how dangerous all energy imports from Russia really are, I would like to introduce to you an article of the Time "China’s Smog Is So Bad They’re Now Calling It a ‘Nuclear Winter’" < http://ti.me/1pAxuRZ > that shows you where more imports of fossil energy can lead the European Union as well!

    But this isn't enough!

    Did you know that Beijing's air pollution is so bad that Beijing's government has decided to ban the use of coal < http://ab.co/1sMBgrL >

    A total stop of all Russian sources of energy imports would only have a very positive impact on the European Union in terms of national security, energy security, economic security and environmental security!

    It also would strengthen the position of Russian's EU neighbor countries like Poland, the Baltic countries, Finland and of course Ukraine!
    Aug 12 07:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Do Western Sanctions On Russia Mean For Russian Companies? [View article]
    Thank you xtian13 for your message and for sharing!

    I'm really convinced that there is no need to import any gas, oil or nuclear fuel from the Russian Federation to guarantee our national security in the European Union!

    I would even go much further with this video "Renewable Energy: Technology, Trends, and Economics" < http://bit.ly/1sMygM7 > and pretend that any energy imports from the Russian Federation into the EU threatens the EU's national security, economic security, energy security and environmental security as it avoids the EU from taking a more innovative policy, create more jobs, more economic growth and a cleaner environment!

    In other words, a total stop of all energy imports from Russia would be the best thing the EU could wish to improve its national security, its energy security, its economic security and its environmental security!

    Have fun and take care!

    Best,

    Lucas
    Aug 12 07:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia's Gazprom, European Energy And U.S. Oil And Shale Gas: Shorting Russia? [View article]
    Right PSalerno: Now we can debate: as you can see the imports and consumption are 4.5 times higher than exports and production.

    We are often told by the pro-gas people that we are dependent on Russia for our gas and are therefore in a precarious position.

    How true is this?

    It warrants a look at DECC statistics.

    In 2012 imports of gas accounted for 47% of supply.

    The majority of the imported gas, 55%, came from Norway.

    Imports of LNG, from a variety of sources, eg Qatar, Australia, Algeria, and also USA, from where we expect to import significantly more in the near future accounted for a further 28% of imports.

    The remainder came from Europe via the Netherlands and Belgium. 17% of imports.

    If we assume that a quarter of the European supply comes from Russia, "Russian gas" imports therefore account for around 4% of our gas imports, and around 2% of our gas demand.

    This is hardly a proportion making us as dependent on Russian gas as the energy security scaremongers would have us believe.

    Add to this the fact that in 2012 we exported gas to continental Europe and to Ireland an amount equal to 24% of our imports and MORE THAN our imports from Europe, and it becomes very hard to see how we are in any way dependent on Russian gas.

    The claim that we are in thrall to Russia is scaremongering.

    EU's dependence on Russian gas could be reduced to ZERO almost instantly thanks to two main drivers:

    Shale gas and renewable sources of energy!

    http://huff.to/1oXHaGZ

    No need to import any gas, oil or nuclear fuel to guarantee our national security in the European Union!

    I would even go much further with this video "Renewable Energy: Technology, Trends, and Economics" < http://bit.ly/1sMygM7 > and pretend that any energy imports of Russian Federation into the EU threatens EU's national security, economic security, energy security and environmental security as it avoids the EU from taking a more innovative policy, create more jobs, more economic growth and a cleaner environment!

    In other words, a total stop of all energy imports from Russia would be the best thing the EU could wish to improve its national security, its energy security, its economic security and its environmental security!

    Have fun and take care!

    Best,

    Lucas
    Aug 12 07:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman Sachs: The 3 Biggest Stock Market Risks [View article]
    Great article Cullen Roche!

    Regarding the geopolitical risk, I think that it's too early to consider that the likelihood of a broader market impact is low.

    Why?

    There is a major risk component in Ukraine that I would call nuclear power plants in a war zone!

    If Russian rebels or troops from Russian Federation start to bomb Ukraine's infrastructure, there would be a high risk that one or even more nuclear power plants would be hit, would explode and would radioactively contaminate at least large parts of Europe!

    The consequence could be that we slowly shift into a nuclear winter!

    On the other hand, I don't consider the China risk as very important, at least not actually!

    And the same for interest rates where any move to higher interest rates would lead to other sovereign debt defaults than what just happened with Argentine!

    Chinese real estate bubble is certainly important but will remain local with little impact on the global financial system because Chinese mortgage lending was mainly organized by Chinese banks, not foreign banks!

    Wish you a great and happy day!

    Best,

    Lucas
    Aug 12 07:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Do Western Sanctions On Russia Mean For Russian Companies? [View article]
    Yes, we can live without any energy supply from Russian Federation!
    Aug 11 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Do Western Sanctions On Russia Mean For Russian Companies? [View article]
    But EU's dependence on Russian gas could be reduced to ZERO almost instantly thanks to two main drivers:

    Shale gas and renewable sources of energy!

    http://huff.to/1oXHaGZ

    No need to import any gas, oil or nuclear fuel to guarantee our national security in the European Union!
    Aug 11 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
411 Comments
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