Why Apple's Intrinsic Value Will Be $1000+ In 3 Years [View article]
Thank you for an unusually detailed and well-illustrated assessment. I hope that your careful, comprehensive methodology and unexaggerated conclusions will be widely appreciated.
I hope that you can push aside some of the criticism above. I thought that your article was well written, interesting, and very helpful in understanding some of the features and differences in the Microsoft technology and programming. Thanks for the posting.
Retirees Beware Of The Many Dangers Of Holding Overvalued Stocks [View article]
That's an excellent reply, Chuck. I appreciate the helpful reminders about what options I have on F.A.S.T Graphs and the good advice to consider the estimates as ranges rather than precise numbers. You are helping lots of people to discover resources and to assess their investment options patiently and thoughtfully. Many thanks --
I think that the heart of your comments lie in the following excerpt:
"For Apple specifically, I have warned about increased competition, the inability to continue to innovate, and future margin pressures. Today I have more to talk about, but the tail does not wag the dog. When major executives leave a Silicon Valley company they usually do it because they found a better opportunity somewhere else. Another way of looking at it is that the opportunities at Apple were no longer good enough. That means these executives see what I see. Apple had an amazing run, but Apple has made some bad decisions recently and they are losing traction."
Respectfully, I am not persuaded by any of your claims or characterizations:
1) Increased competition is not bad, it is the norm in a society that believes that competition tends to produce better things for the consumer. I believe that Apple will excel against heightened competition.
2) Apple innovates impressively and is likely to continue to do so. Perhaps you have seen the pre-trial, 52-page account of Samsung's hired consultants noting feature by feature and point by point (with photographs and illustrations) how the i Phone works better, feels more substantial, and captures a design flair that Samsung needs to emulate. You offer no substantiation in criticizing Apple's innovation, so let's move on.
3) As to Apple's possibly facing pressure on its margins, there is no imperative for a healthy and prosperous company that innovates for a competitive market to obsess over maintaining the level of its margin. As I understand it, though, Deutsche Bank noted recently that while Apple's margins dropped after the introduction of i Phone 4, they returned to their previous level four quarters later -- thus the change seemed cyclical and less concerning.
4) Your final point about executive departures is one of the lamest syllogisms I have ever read -- claiming that a) because most Silicon Valley executives leave because of a better job offer elsewhere; then b) their departure must have been because the opportunities at Apple were no longer good enough; therefore c) they agree with you.
Scott Forstall was "let go" (a euphemism for being fired) for cause, and apparently employees at Apple are delighted that he is departing.
You have put together what I think is a ludicrous collection of unsubstantiated claims. The Seeking Alpha community deserves better.
Chinese Telecoms Begin Climbing The 3G Hill [View article]
Thanks for a detailed commentary on China's telecom options and potential access for Apple's i Phone. This topic has tended to evoke a less-than-helpful sequence of "he said, she said" postings.
Retirees Beware Of The Many Dangers Of Holding Overvalued Stocks [View article]
As always, your posting is helpful and worth reading, and I am enjoying and benefitting from my new F.A.S.T. Graphs membership. Can you comment on the foundation for and potential reliability of analysts' projections of future earnings that seem to be at the core of the assessment of proper valuation?
Thoughts On Apple's Ousting Of Forstall And Browett: Asserting Cook's Authority, Solidifying Jobs' Vision [View article]
Thanks for a very interesting account. I share your sense that the leadership transition can be very good for Apple. Every company has personnel and personality issues. I think that it is healthy for Cook to take a stand that will help key people work successfully and collaboratively.
Thanks for a thoughtful and, I think, prudent perspective. While some of AAPL's price drop comes from somewhat self-inflicted wounds, the market seems driven by fear, inability to comprehend so large and prosperous a corporation, and unrealistic expectations for Apple and virtually all other corporations whose slight drops in earnings or revenues are labeled as disappointments when they could as reasonably be viewed as commendable performances in unusually tumultuous international business conditions.
Thanks for a good posting, Dana, that offers helpful background on new techniques and provokes thought about the prospects for new technologies that may flow from the continuing miniaturization and increasing power of chips.
4 Stocks To Trade, What's Next For The Market [View article]
If you have changed your mind about the company's earnings, revenue, debt, business prospects, etc., then selling makes sense. All stocks go through difficult periods. Bailing out when a stock you like dips below its 50-day moving average and then shorting the stock makes you part of the problem that other misguided and fearful investors started. If you stick with things you believe in and write about them, others may admire and follow your lead.
6 Business Friendly Features In iOS 6 And What They Say About The New 'Surface' Threat [View article]
The part about what Apple has built into its IOS 6 technology for better administrator controls in corporate use is quite interesting. The piece gets weaker when you load it with your slant -- based on what "one source" allegedly told "two customers."
The Upcoming Microsoft Train Wreck [View article]
Why Apple's Intrinsic Value Will Be $1000+ In 3 Years [View article]
The Upcoming Microsoft Train Wreck [View article]
Retirees Beware Of The Many Dangers Of Holding Overvalued Stocks [View article]
investment options patiently and thoughtfully. Many thanks --
IT Earnings: A Rocky Road Ahead [View article]
"For Apple specifically, I have warned about increased competition, the inability to continue to innovate, and future margin pressures. Today I have more to talk about, but the tail does not wag the dog. When major executives leave a Silicon Valley company they usually do it because they found a better opportunity somewhere else. Another way of looking at it is that the opportunities at Apple were no longer good enough. That means these executives see what I see. Apple had an amazing run, but Apple has made some bad decisions recently and they are losing traction."
Respectfully, I am not persuaded by any of your claims or characterizations:
1) Increased competition is not bad, it is the norm in a society that believes that competition tends to produce better things for the consumer. I believe that Apple will excel against heightened competition.
2) Apple innovates impressively and is likely to continue to do so. Perhaps you have seen the pre-trial, 52-page account of Samsung's hired consultants noting feature by feature and point by point (with photographs and illustrations) how the i Phone works better, feels more substantial, and captures a design flair that Samsung needs to emulate. You offer no substantiation in criticizing Apple's innovation, so let's move on.
3) As to Apple's possibly facing pressure on its margins, there is no imperative for a healthy and prosperous company that innovates for a competitive market to obsess over maintaining the level of its margin. As I understand it, though, Deutsche Bank noted recently that while Apple's margins dropped after the introduction of i Phone 4, they returned to their previous level four quarters later -- thus the change seemed cyclical and less concerning.
4) Your final point about executive departures is one of the lamest syllogisms I have ever read -- claiming that a) because most Silicon Valley executives leave because of a better job offer elsewhere; then b) their departure must have been because the opportunities at Apple were no longer good enough; therefore c) they agree with you.
Scott Forstall was "let go" (a euphemism for being fired) for cause, and apparently employees at Apple are delighted that he is departing.
You have put together what I think is a ludicrous collection of unsubstantiated claims. The Seeking Alpha community deserves better.
Chinese Telecoms Begin Climbing The 3G Hill [View article]
Retirees Beware Of The Many Dangers Of Holding Overvalued Stocks [View article]
Thoughts On Apple's Ousting Of Forstall And Browett: Asserting Cook's Authority, Solidifying Jobs' Vision [View article]
Apple's Earnings Miss: Deja Vu All Over Again, Or, What Lies Under The Surface? [View article]
Where Is The Upside In Apple? [View article]
IBM Shows That Moore's Law Lives [View article]
4 Stocks To Trade, What's Next For The Market [View article]
4 Stocks To Trade, What's Next For The Market [View article]
4 Stocks To Trade, What's Next For The Market [View article]
6 Business Friendly Features In iOS 6 And What They Say About The New 'Surface' Threat [View article]