mpkirby's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/106351/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/82268-is-peak-oil-already-affecting-the-stock-market?source=feed#comment-190701 190701
When the amount of energy being discussed is measured in "qudrillions of BTU's", nothing happens very quickly.

We currently need about 6 quads for transportation. It's about 28% of our total energy use. WE currently generate about 8.4 quads of electricity.

Don't delude yourself into believing that anything happens quickly with this infrastructure.

WE need:
- More technology development for electric transportation (5 to 15 years)
- More conventional electric generation (5 to 20 years)
- More alternative energy generation (2 to 20 years)
- Better urban planning to avoid sprawl that requires large numbers of miles driven (20 to 100 years).

What this means is that your children will likely not have the same lifestyle that you have. Your grand children (if you are lucky will be back to parity with what we enjoy today. Your great-grandchildren may (if something else doesn't peak) actually start to grow again.

Mike
]]> Mon, 23 Jun 2008 07:19:49 -0400
When the amount of energy being discussed is measured in "qudrillions of BTU's", nothing happens very quickly.

We currently need about 6 quads for transportation. It's about 28% of our total energy use. WE currently generate about 8.4 quads of electricity.

Don't delude yourself into believing that anything happens quickly with this infrastructure.

WE need:
- More technology development for electric transportation (5 to 15 years)
- More conventional electric generation (5 to 20 years)
- More alternative energy generation (2 to 20 years)
- Better urban planning to avoid sprawl that requires large numbers of miles driven (20 to 100 years).

What this means is that your children will likely not have the same lifestyle that you have. Your grand children (if you are lucky will be back to parity with what we enjoy today. Your great-grandchildren may (if something else doesn't peak) actually start to grow again.

Mike
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81397-the-great-oil-deception-part-two?source=feed#comment-185832 185832
If we divide the oil in the world into two camps. Oil discovered before 1990, and oil discovered after, the decline in production from established fields isn't being made up from the discovery of new fields AT ANY COST.

In other words, in the past it took 1 single rig X weeks to find significant oil in off-shore drilling.

Now it takes multiple rigs much longer.

Perhaps we just need more rigs. But I suspect the horizon is receding into the distance. And we can't build rigs fast enough to offset decline.

There can still be made an arguement for above-ground reasons driving the problem.

Off-limits drilling in the U.S., combined with nationalized oil companies that under-invest in established fields.

But even if that were resolved today, the resultant increase in production would only stave off the issue for a few decades at most.

Think of it as an insurance policy. We need to invest in reducing our use of oil "just in case" there turns out to be a long-term decline in production. If we are wrong. Oh well. I'll go buy another SUV.

Mike
]]> Sun, 15 Jun 2008 10:04:06 -0400
If we divide the oil in the world into two camps. Oil discovered before 1990, and oil discovered after, the decline in production from established fields isn't being made up from the discovery of new fields AT ANY COST.

In other words, in the past it took 1 single rig X weeks to find significant oil in off-shore drilling.

Now it takes multiple rigs much longer.

Perhaps we just need more rigs. But I suspect the horizon is receding into the distance. And we can't build rigs fast enough to offset decline.

There can still be made an arguement for above-ground reasons driving the problem.

Off-limits drilling in the U.S., combined with nationalized oil companies that under-invest in established fields.

But even if that were resolved today, the resultant increase in production would only stave off the issue for a few decades at most.

Think of it as an insurance policy. We need to invest in reducing our use of oil "just in case" there turns out to be a long-term decline in production. If we are wrong. Oh well. I'll go buy another SUV.

Mike
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80507-is-oil-a-bubble-part-3?source=feed#comment-181414 181414
It isn't "Greens' versus "Hummer-driving, anorexic soccer mom's"

The reason we have no reasonable energy policy is because no one is able to be reasonable.

We need:

- More drilling
- More conservation
- More nuclear
- Higher CAFE standards
- Tax structures that encourage investment and conservation.

We don't need:
- Whining conservatives bemoaning the environment for preventing them from driving their SUV's to Starbucks to get a latte.
- Whining liberals complaining that Oil kills otters, Nuclear radiates all, coal dirties snow, wind kills birds, solar ruins their "view of the valley".

Get over your pathetic selves, and sit down and negotiate!

Mike
]]> Sun, 08 Jun 2008 14:46:10 -0400
It isn't "Greens' versus "Hummer-driving, anorexic soccer mom's"

The reason we have no reasonable energy policy is because no one is able to be reasonable.

We need:

- More drilling
- More conservation
- More nuclear
- Higher CAFE standards
- Tax structures that encourage investment and conservation.

We don't need:
- Whining conservatives bemoaning the environment for preventing them from driving their SUV's to Starbucks to get a latte.
- Whining liberals complaining that Oil kills otters, Nuclear radiates all, coal dirties snow, wind kills birds, solar ruins their "view of the valley".

Get over your pathetic selves, and sit down and negotiate!

Mike
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80514-oil-will-peak-at-150-200-barron-s-interview?source=feed#comment-181410 181410
Although there is tremendous investment underway now, much of the early news is that there isn't going to be a lot of new flow (key word there is flow).

Declining fields are consuming most of the new production, and new production is not "easy" oil.

So while the conditions around investment and consumption are similar to the 1980's, the flow rate on existing and new fields are not. Consequently unless demand drops more than 4% per year, I don't see a let-up in price pressure.

Mike
]]> Sun, 08 Jun 2008 14:40:19 -0400
Although there is tremendous investment underway now, much of the early news is that there isn't going to be a lot of new flow (key word there is flow).

Declining fields are consuming most of the new production, and new production is not "easy" oil.

So while the conditions around investment and consumption are similar to the 1980's, the flow rate on existing and new fields are not. Consequently unless demand drops more than 4% per year, I don't see a let-up in price pressure.

Mike
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79609-peak-oil-crude-price-and-equity-correlation?source=feed#comment-177697 177697
He's also saying that crude oil inventories are going down at the same time as refined product inventories, so that's real bad.

Mike
]]> Sun, 01 Jun 2008 22:41:02 -0400
He's also saying that crude oil inventories are going down at the same time as refined product inventories, so that's real bad.

Mike
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79522-is-oil-a-bubble-part-two?source=feed#comment-177193 177193
While the "future" price of oil might be high due to speculation, ultimately when the speculators roll the contracts forward, they sell their soon to expire contracts to someone that actually wants to get the oil.

If it is a speculative bubble, that oil ends up being purchased at a loss to the speculator. Or a speculator actually takes delivery of the oil and stores it, pushing up oil inventories.

Inventories are not up, and there isn't a significant loss being taken by speculators.

Therefore, we can assume the demand is real at this price.

Mike
]]> Sat, 31 May 2008 08:34:58 -0400
While the "future" price of oil might be high due to speculation, ultimately when the speculators roll the contracts forward, they sell their soon to expire contracts to someone that actually wants to get the oil.

If it is a speculative bubble, that oil ends up being purchased at a loss to the speculator. Or a speculator actually takes delivery of the oil and stores it, pushing up oil inventories.

Inventories are not up, and there isn't a significant loss being taken by speculators.

Therefore, we can assume the demand is real at this price.

Mike
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78451-iea-warns-of-potential-supply-shortage?source=feed#comment-173333 173333 Sat, 24 May 2008 22:04:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78616-is-oil-a-bubble-part-one?source=feed#comment-173329 173329
Peak oil is about production curves, not price. It is totally reasonable to go through peak oil with very high prices, followed by crashes, followed by a resumption of high prices.

Peak oil says nothing about price. It only speaks to production.

Mike
]]> Sat, 24 May 2008 21:50:02 -0400
Peak oil is about production curves, not price. It is totally reasonable to go through peak oil with very high prices, followed by crashes, followed by a resumption of high prices.

Peak oil says nothing about price. It only speaks to production.

Mike
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77816-peak-oil-and-climate-change-re-tooling-transportation?source=feed#comment-171423 171423
And is there a difference between political peak oil and geological peak oil? What does it matter if I can't get it out of the ground?

So instead of declaring that the world is over (peak oilers), and that it's a gigantic hoax (plenti-oilers?)

Let's at least contemplate that (1) conditions could exist that would limit further production of oil (geological, political, whatever).

and (2) Should the conditions work out that further increases in oil production come, and we aren't at peak oil, does this mean that the principles of peak oil aren't good principles anyway?

Consider steps taken to prevent peak oil an insurance policy. We should spend a small percentage of our income to purchase insurance in the event that peak oil turn out to be true.

So what would that insurance look like?

Mike
]]> Wed, 21 May 2008 21:54:31 -0400
And is there a difference between political peak oil and geological peak oil? What does it matter if I can't get it out of the ground?

So instead of declaring that the world is over (peak oilers), and that it's a gigantic hoax (plenti-oilers?)

Let's at least contemplate that (1) conditions could exist that would limit further production of oil (geological, political, whatever).

and (2) Should the conditions work out that further increases in oil production come, and we aren't at peak oil, does this mean that the principles of peak oil aren't good principles anyway?

Consider steps taken to prevent peak oil an insurance policy. We should spend a small percentage of our income to purchase insurance in the event that peak oil turn out to be true.

So what would that insurance look like?

Mike
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77700-searching-oil-inventories-for-a-bubble?source=feed#comment-169591 169591
Since the spot price isn't heavily discounted relative to futures, I suspect the smart money (that is the money that actually wants to purchase the product) believes the price is relatively fair.

Regarding oil shale. the old $80 figure was based on energy costs during $30 dollar oil being used to extract $80 dollar or higher shale oil.

Now that energy prices are $130, the break-even point isn't $80, it's considerably higher.

Further it is a very water intensive process.

And finally, the kind of oil it produces is difficult to process. There aren't a lot of refineries that can process that kind of oil. If we produce it in large numbers it isn't clear that we could do much with it.

Mike]]> Sun, 18 May 2008 09:15:14 -0400
Since the spot price isn't heavily discounted relative to futures, I suspect the smart money (that is the money that actually wants to purchase the product) believes the price is relatively fair.

Regarding oil shale. the old $80 figure was based on energy costs during $30 dollar oil being used to extract $80 dollar or higher shale oil.

Now that energy prices are $130, the break-even point isn't $80, it's considerably higher.

Further it is a very water intensive process.

And finally, the kind of oil it produces is difficult to process. There aren't a lot of refineries that can process that kind of oil. If we produce it in large numbers it isn't clear that we could do much with it.

Mike]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/46613-putting-apple-headphones-through-the-wash-another-great-customer-experience?source=feed#comment-95664 95664
The same thing will happen.]]> Mon, 10 Sep 2007 20:20:21 -0400
The same thing will happen.]]>