mpkirby

Is 'Peak Oil' Already Affecting the Stock Market?

"With battery technology and nuclear power, we could remove ourselves from oil dependency very quickly. "

When the amount of energy being discussed is measured in "qudrillions of BTU's", nothing happens very quickly.

We currently need about 6 quads for transportation. It's about 28% of our total energy use. WE currently generate about 8.4 quads of electricity.

Don't delude yourself into believing that anything happens quickly with this infrastructure.

WE need:
- More technology development for electric transportation (5 to 15 years)
- More conventional electric generation (5 to 20 years)
- More alternative energy generation (2 to 20 years)
- Better urban planning to avoid sprawl that requires large numbers of miles driven (20 to 100 years).

What this means is that your children will likely not have the same lifestyle that you have. Your grand children (if you are lucky will be back to parity with what we enjoy today. Your great-grandchildren may (if something else doesn't peak) actually start to grow again.

Mike

Peak Oil, Crude Price and Equity Correlation

He's saying that unless oil gets down to 50 dollars, people still can't afford it, and there will continue to be a move towards conservation, and a drag on the economy. At 25-50, it's a stimulus.

He's also saying that crude oil inventories are going down at the same time as refined product inventories, so that's real bad.

Mike

IEA Warns of Potential Supply Shortage

Followed by a recovery, and then another spike.