Why I Wouldn't Trade Apple Right Now [View article]
"What do we know now that we didn't know a month ago?" Nothing if you've been following aapl for years. But the rest of the world is waking up to fact of aapl. That it's iphone sales passed all expectations, that aapl will continue it's winning streak didn't end with steve jobs passing, that company has a loyal fan base that will continue to buy new iterations of product, that aapl is fun to use, that it's forward p/e ratio is a bargan relative to pears, that growth is not baked in, that the scale of large numbers doesn't apply, that the emerging asian markets crave apple, that there is no recession in high end consumers, that if you're a fund manager and you don't hold aapl you're being left in the dust. Nope no new news. Just a bunch of sleeping bears waking up to what's been in front of their face for years.
Sirius XM Satellite Radio Beats Pandora Internet Radio [View article]
Yeah, I like XM in my car. I listen to CNBC all day. I also get XM through my smart phone for when I cannot get a satilite signal with verizon I have never had a problem getting internet - and it's free. I too thought Sirius has a monopoly, however in their last earnings report, membership growth was disappointing. ONe problem I have with XM is that while they have all sorts of sports channels, you can't get many playoff games. I think both P and XM have risks - internet radio have a lot of potential, and P and XM have to pay to much for content. When I listen to XM music stations, I was excited for about one week - then I realized I was hearing the same content over and over. I can get Bloomberg free over the net, and as CNBC gets progressively worse with its' political content and oversized personalities, I may soon find there is no need for me to keep XM.
Cisco: Huge Challenges Lie Ahead In 2012 [View article]
This article cites John Chamber's comments "Bottom line, we have lost some of the credibility that is foundational to Cisco’s success – and we must earn it back" as proof that positive analyst sentiment is hype. My conclusion from this frank honesty is the opposite. If management is being this open, it indicates that they are addressing their problems and returning to their knitting. I don't know where Cisco is going, but the openess with which Chamber's is addressing the problem is a positive in my view. I wish we had a more factual analysis of the drivers that will put CIsco back on track. I don't own the stock, but I see continued bandwidth usage and cloud plays as positive for all network companies and would like to be able to better pick the winners.
Consider Total S.A. While It's Still Cheap [View article]
Beware, the places we used to think as high risk for protecting drillers are now easier to do business in. In those place that we would like to raise children - some of them don't want drillers around! The world is inverted. Also while TOT has a nice dividend, since is a foreign company they with-hold 20% of any dividend. This is ok for my taxable account where I can take a credit on my tax return, on my IRA rollover it's money I lose.
Did Buffett Buy IBM Because Of The Economy? [View article]
Buffet went on CNBC two months ago and said he bought IBM because it was getting double digit growth in all the countries it was doing business with increasing margins. It's a smart play on worldwide growth not tied to any country or region. Even in recessionary times people go to IBM to help implement lower cost systems. It also pays a dividend. I take Warren at face value. It's an investment that makes a lot of sense for all the reasons he said. Given that IBM has run up, I thought ACN would be a good investment. It has many similar qualities, but has yet to really move.
Shun Google Until Management Is Replaced [View article]
However GOOG demonstrates all the symptoms of a company out-of-control. There have been 1) to many problems related to monopolistic practices that will get the company in trouble, 2) to many privacy misteps, 3) mishandling of China, 4) lack of clear control of the Android platform, 4) lack of clear direction for mobile advertising, 5) confusing and perhaps ill-fated steps in hardware, and 6) out of control payroll costs. In a nutshell GOOG is running off in all directions without a clear focus. Stay away.
Apple's Slowdown Offers A Nice Short Term Options Play For January 2012 [View article]
I own AAPL and GOOG. Both are down. Yes Droid's growth is more than iPhone - that's not new. Fact is AAPL's growth continues to accelerate and it's more profitable than Droid. The fact that Droid is taking more market share is no sweat off AAPL's back. JPM projects smartphone sales of 1 billion units in 2014. Apple will continue to take is share. There is no evidence it's growth trajectory is in jeopardy. AAPL's next report and guidance are due to be off the chart just look that sales rate of iPhone and MacAir.
Yes, the growth in aapl's price is unsustainable. Your analysis will be correct, maybe sometime in the next 10 years. Meanwhile until it is proven that aapl can no longer generate a foward p/e of 10 sans cash, it will leave you in the dust. Fundamentals beat technicals every time.
As long as aapl keeps generating new products that people want it will grow. Millions of consumers are willing spend beaucoup bucks for a new device every two years for a new aapl product, and the markets for these devices keeps growing. When they don't and that time will come, the price will fall, and some nerds will claim - "see the price is unsustainable". Of course.
How Serious Is Google's Legal Jeopardy? [View article]
ONly two big legal problems? What about anticompetitive behavior in the ECB, Africa, and the US. But it's not so much the legal risks that bother me - it's that the company seems out-of-control. They're going off in too many directions and have too many compliance issues. I have no investment in GOOG, and I am not short.
5 Stocks Seeing Big Analyst Downgrades [View article]
A possible Euro recession has been baked into GOOG for a long time. This isn't new news is it. Advertising is someone resistant to recession, since vendors are encouraged to both cut more expensive traditional advertising and drum up more business. In the US the presidential election will increase ad spending this year dramatically. Goog+'s numbers will surprise and Goog docs will continue to steal market share, Droid numbers continue to increase and steal market share. I did not see the Benchmark report but old news about Europe has been baked in. Buy on this dip.
Ho, ho, ho, ha, ha, ha - this is something that should be sent on April Fools day, not Christmas. iphone sales off the wall. MacAir sales up 17%, Smartphone sales projected to skyrocket across the board. Ho, ho, ho. Ha, ha, ha.
Why I Now Dislike Apple [View article]
Why I Now Dislike Apple [View article]
Why I Wouldn't Trade Apple Right Now [View article]
Sirius XM Satellite Radio Beats Pandora Internet Radio [View article]
Cisco: Huge Challenges Lie Ahead In 2012 [View article]
Consider Total S.A. While It's Still Cheap [View article]
Did Buffett Buy IBM Because Of The Economy? [View article]
Shun Google Until Management Is Replaced [View article]
However GOOG demonstrates all the symptoms of a company out-of-control. There have been 1) to many problems related to monopolistic practices that will get the company in trouble, 2) to many privacy misteps, 3) mishandling of China, 4) lack of clear control of the Android platform, 4) lack of clear direction for mobile advertising, 5) confusing and perhaps ill-fated steps in hardware, and 6) out of control payroll costs. In a nutshell GOOG is running off in all directions without a clear focus. Stay away.
Apple's Slowdown Offers A Nice Short Term Options Play For January 2012 [View article]
Why Cliffs Natural Resources Is A Buy [View article]
Why The New iPhone 5 Is So Important To Apple [View article]
An Apple Bubble Is Forming [View article]
As long as aapl keeps generating new products that people want it will grow. Millions of consumers are willing spend beaucoup bucks for a new device every two years for a new aapl product, and the markets for these devices keeps growing. When they don't and that time will come, the price will fall, and some nerds will claim - "see the price is unsustainable". Of course.
How Serious Is Google's Legal Jeopardy? [View article]
5 Stocks Seeing Big Analyst Downgrades [View article]
Apple Is Ripe For Another Sell-Off [View article]