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  • Carl Icahn looks to be out for blood, disclosing late today that he's bought 14M shares, representing a 13% stake in battered Herbalife (HLF). According to the SEC filing, Icahn claims to "have conducted significant analysis," and "concluded that the company has a legitimate business model, with favorable long-term opportunities for growth." The disclosure further adds that he intends to have discussions with management regarding the business and strategic alternatives to enhance shareholder value, such as a recapitalization or going-private. Shares +20% AH.  [View news story]
    stock manipulation? inside info?

    A little refresher...
    When Einhorn asked his 2cent Q's in HLF' earning call, his intention to be there was leaked to major media a few hours before the Call, and the stock crashed before he asked his non-questions.
    Actually the stock crashed before it went on CNBC !!!!
    The rumor, or should we say insider info was circling already.

    Ackman actually built his short around this time.
    Einhorn made waves for his friends surfing the short ??? maybe ?
    Did Ackman short HLF BEFORE it was common knowledge that Einhorn will attend HLF meetings?
    I wonder... SEC should too.

    There is more, but I am sure SEC and others have more info, more ideas and more access to what they need.

    Massive shorts should automatically be investigated, just like every touch-down in football.

    I actually think that shorts should be banned on real assets (non-synthetic).
    Can you short your home, a car....
    you like Honda, better than Car-B... so you buy Honda. You don't go to the dealer and short Car-B because their electrical is bad. You just don't buy Car-B and let the free market work.

    the short is one of the tools invented by Wall St greed. It has no role is anything to do with raising capital, job creation, retirement security, or any other reason for having a stock market...
    and while having no benefit
    it is a hotbed for corruption, inside info, stock manipulation etc.
    Everything that sucks in today's market

    And yes, all the Wall St people here want to catch me in a dark alley. How dare I take their corruption-advantage.
    Hey guys, don't worry, you have all of Congress in your back pocket
    The Tea Party will destroy Amerika before banning shorts

    Free market does NOT include shorting as a balancing mechanism. Free market is based on competition - NOT of shorts. Competition among LONGs. In every industry, in every sector... except Wall St.

    And why allow shorts on Synthetic? because the CDS and similar stuff... might require hedging by nature.
    Forex hedging for exporters importers... this I can see as well.
    It's real and needed. Minimizing forex effects is totally good business.

    But shorting HLF ? why? you have beef with their marketing?
    you want to Save Amerika? write a letter to the SEC/FTC...
    Feb 15, 2013. 06:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Big Market - CDC Says 78 Million Obese  [View article]
    game over

    investors should really re-consider placing their money in Ackman's hands.
    The guy cannot separate his ego from your money
    Even if we believe every word he says - well, he made his point, the HLF marketing system has full flood lights on it for whomever wants to investigate.
    So Ackman's "patriotic activism" has long done it's job.

    So now, Mr Ackman, why did you stay invested so heavily after you have done your "service to society"... with investors money !!!!
    1 answer - big ego.

    Loves his 2 minutes on CNBC, Bloomberg
    Well... with the money you lost you could buy every single slot in the Superball, that's more than 2 minutes with much bigger ratings...?

    Not to mention his investments in Borders and JCP... these are very poor calls. not a 50-50 call by any stretch of the imagination (says the market).

    And last but not least - I am under the impression that Ackman thinks he is the only smartest guy around. very dangerous for his investors...
    Feb 15, 2013. 05:21 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Costco: Greatly Overvaluved  [View article]
    Buffet recommends investing in businesses you understand.

    I go to Costco for most of my overall shopping, and it just takes over.
    Since being a member they Always have 20+ cashiers open with long (and quick) lines, each with carts with at least $500 in them... ringing them every 2 minutes...
    Is the business structure sound? well I would trust whoever put Costco together much more than some shmanalyst

    medium quality company??? are you guys for real ???
    We are talking about the WHOLE market disagreeing with you, including 1000's of investors not less smarter than you
    This is NOT a speculative ticker. this a ticker where you store your profit-taking (like PG KO).

    This is NOT DDD/SODA !!! (great companies but the proof is still on them). this is a steady stock with brilliant management.
    where does this factor in your analysis? or anyone's analysis
    You guys related to anything non-numerical as if it doesn't exist
    Management counts more than any of your metrics.
    But if you admitted that you'd be out of business, yes?
    Actually, your report should look like
    "COST management is top tier, one of the very best (alongside AMZN, AAPL, BRK) they have done miracles since inception. who are we to judge them, history to-date is proof enough to trust them more than any of us"

    large cap with very low Beta.
    Where did you price this in? Sharpe ratios do.
    Did you price in their potential in Gas Stations? expansion? growing market share in the biggest sector in the economy...
    The MOAT !!! never heard of a COST outlet closing !!!!

    And "smart money" like Ackman invest in Borders and JCP...
    Obviously he's never been to one. Very few people have.

    Maybe "smart money" should get out more, mingle among people and understand lives of ordinary people. Where they shop, where they hang out, what they love (AAPL/AMZN/COST is what they love)

    Once "smart money" catches up with reality...
    Feb 15, 2013. 04:12 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn looks to be out for blood, disclosing late today that he's bought 14M shares, representing a 13% stake in battered Herbalife (HLF). According to the SEC filing, Icahn claims to "have conducted significant analysis," and "concluded that the company has a legitimate business model, with favorable long-term opportunities for growth." The disclosure further adds that he intends to have discussions with management regarding the business and strategic alternatives to enhance shareholder value, such as a recapitalization or going-private. Shares +20% AH.  [View news story]
    I think an investigation of Ackman's short is more fitting and more likey than an investigation of HLF

    I Love this squeeze
    Feb 14, 2013. 06:41 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Buy China - FXI  [View article]
    I must admit there is truth in many of your claims about the US.
    and... you have no idea how corrupt and bent the Chinese system is.

    I am talking not only as an investor, but as a witness the Chinese way of doing "business". For them cheating white people is a religion.

    I don't blame anyone who will never invest in the US markets.
    What I am saying is "DO NOT INVEST IN CHINA"
    I am not saying "invest in the US".
    I do...
    And I believe you do too, or why would be reading this?

    and I did get burned by interviews of MCP and ZAGG on Bloomberg...
    Yes, they do lie on Amerikan TV. and yes most congressmen are "legal" inside traders. and yes, I too, am part of the 99%
    Feb 8, 2013. 07:26 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Buy China - FXI  [View article]
    was talked into Chinese dreams once... which was one too many

    There are so many good investments around, why go there?
    the land of fiction accounting, phony corp's, corruption, lies, and a tilted legal system
    Chinese stocks are ALWAYS at a "discount". or is it?
    Feb 8, 2013. 06:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strong Job Growth And Upward Revisions Contrast Sharply With Reported GDP Decrease  [View article]
    GDP is a a strange measure, stated mildly
    Israel had some very good "growth" years.
    The banks ganged on the people and charged the private checking accounts $3B/year in fees on checking accounts. per year, for the last few years
    In the US they would be sitting in Jail for the rest of their lives.
    In Israel it "added" 1% to the GDP ("financial services" sector, how does anything they do eneter the GDP, they don't create anything...)
    Just as an example
    Israel's Productive Sectors have actually decreased 20% over the last decade
    and around the world people are hailing the sturdy Israeli economy, "growing at 5%/yr"
    How is it good for anyone if the Insurance industry is ripping off the population? it's good only for the "GDP" whatever that is

    These measures are old time, pre-computers era
    We need to focus on PMI, Balance Sheet, wealth creation

    another example?
    In today's measurement we are so concerned about the 2% higher employment tax, while ignoring that our houses gained the equivalent of 50% of our salary during the last year
    You don't buy a new car from the 2% salary, you buy it based on your home equity, for over 50% of the cars purchased. And THAT'S GDP.

    Take out defense from the GDP
    Count only private sector jobs and if at all SUBTRACT govt jobs.
    Use other measurements for Govt Services. Use quality measurements there.

    Economists are very mediocre compared to other sciences.
    And their numbers? give me a break.
    Adjustment of 30% on Dec employment?
    adjustment is 2%.
    30% is "you have no clue what you are talking about"
    In any business a miss of 30% would cause immediate re-evaluation of the whole system, scrap everything we do, start over, re-think, people would be fired
    There is no other industry that will allow such errors and survive.
    If a farmer misses his estimates by 30% he'll lose the farm real fast
    Not to mention more complicated businesses with inventory, production pipe-line, complex deliveries.

    Economists couldn't run a SevenEleven

    why do you even publish the Jan numbers. It's hallucinations based on nothing. This is heavy smoking...
    and now come the "real" analysts and start building more theories based on these faulty theories, measuring the wrong things, and cannot get the numbers correctly to save their lives.
    and now build a whole "proof" of where the economy is headed...

    The economy is headed where production, exports, private sector employment and house values are headed,
    and everything else... stop scrambling our brains.
    Feb 3, 2013. 04:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Even though stock indexes are climbing, don't look for a "great rotation" out of fixed income into equities anytime soon, say bond fund managers. Why? Because economic growth remains anemic and interest rates remain low as Federal Reserve continues to print money. "Fixed-income investors are not happy with their returns," says RidgeWorth Capital's Alan Gayle. But on the flipside, they're also "happy they're not losing money."  [View news story]
    RidgeWorth Capital
    Remember that name.
    Remember what they said here
    It's time we the financial consumers extract the price for such "advice".

    Mr. Gayle - do you put your own money in bonds these days?
    Feb 2, 2013. 08:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 15 Bank Preferred Stocks That Offer Solid Returns With Minimal Risk  [View article]
    PFF gives you liquidity, simple, and the safety of lower beta without a sacrifice of yield
    Jan 31, 2013. 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celebrating Negative Growth  [View article]
    Sorry, you miss some points
    Not all govt spending is equal (as a Greek(?) you should know this...)
    Defense spending is destruction of wealth, economically equivalent to a Hurricane.
    The "growth" generated by such economic events is a statistical falsity. Destruction of wealth is a contraction.
    When we talk about "growth" - growth of what? of wealth !!!

    A bomb is produced and delivered through taxes which are taken out of the consumer's pocket and thrown on Afganistan. and yet the Fed/Washington counts it as a positive GDP number.
    Govt spending can actually be done in infra-structure/education - which promotes productivity per hour and directly adds to the GDP.

    Kudlow actually understands what I wish they understood in Washington, or the statistics office of the Fed.

    With all respect to GDP... the real-estate recovery has added to the consumers' wealth $1.5T in the last year. It's not in the GDP !!!
    It's way more important than the 2% middle class taxes, incl all the sequester and it's media hype

    Same arguments should be extended to the labor market. Not all jobs are created equal, and when we reduce our military force, of fire paper-shufflers, it looks like higher-unemployment, but it's good for the economy. It reduces taxes used for wealth destruction.
    The work force trend has been a strong reduction in govt positions and a larger growth in private sector than what the Fed's bottom line is showing. The labor force is in much better condition than the headline numbers show (and Bush destroyed the economy a lot more than people give him credit for)

    Wall St doesn't understand which numbers are important, nor which are are truly positive. and... Wall St thrives on bad news. How else will they find what to talk about 24x7 in 3 business networks...

    I didn't read any further.
    Jan 31, 2013. 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Investing, Cod, Sharks, Seaweed And A Cold Second Half Of Winter  [View article]


    Only on April 19 2012
    NG = 1.909 (up 81% since)
    UNG = 14.25 (up 37% since)

    I am just trying to save some people here from making a mistake.
    Do yourself a favor and don't fight it.
    Good luck
    Jan 28, 2013. 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Falling: Why You Shouldn't Buy The Stock In A Hurry  [View article]
    CEDUP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Do you think shouting will make people listen?
    Or make what you say seem smarter?
    Jan 28, 2013. 07:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks (SBUX) reportedly will hold back $158M pegged for investments in the U.K. after comments from Prime Minister David Cameron rubbed the company the wrong way. Mr. Cameron claimed the coffee giant must "wake up and smell the coffee" on the issue of tax avoidance. Starbucks had said it will review its tax payment policy, but is feeling a bit singled out in the region.  [View news story]
    You are assuming govt will make good use of these taxes
    In reality much of these funds are used to buy special-interests behind the votes needed to maintain their coalition.
    I am not sure anymore which is worse
    Jan 28, 2013. 06:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ZIV Starting To Gain Momentum  [View article]
    Totally agree with your ZIV/AAPL view
    and... I have a better idea for you for when Vix = 80
    keep your house, and finance your ZIV buying through shorting TVIX
    You get to stay in your house AND make 3x the money.
    I made 40% on shorting TVIX in less than a week in late Dec 2012,
    and... thanks to Boehner.
    Hope for the same in late March, and then in May. I Love congress.

    In October 2012
    I loaded up ZIV @ 20.94 with Vix = 14.5
    My brother is still waiting for Vix = 30
    Meanwhile ZIV is up 40%

    BTW - after the S&P 8.5% pull back in June 2012, ZIV took 1 month to recover. after S&P 7.5% pull back in Nov 2012, ZIV took 4 days to recover.
    Which raises an interesting point. I do not even try to do "risk-off-trade" on ZIV. Even if I timed it perfectly, the fact that I get taxed for realized gains will hurt more than avoiding the draw-downs(!!!).
    Better to keep these 25% tax-money riding into the sunset... It is that good.

    With XIV I do mostly week/day-trades. just watch the intra-day behavior, it's quiet predictable, and liquid enough

    Thanks Bill, really... many thanks
    Jan 25, 2013. 08:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Things are all topsy-turvy in the mattress sector. Though both Tempur-Pedic (TPX) and Select Comfort (SCSS) reported weak sales trends (I, II), TPX is up 16.5% premarket while SCSS is off 15.6% as the former company beat estimates and the latter one lagged. The most important message flowing out from the sector is that both sales and margins fell during Q4. Mattress Firm (MFRM) is up 1.1% premarket, while Sealy (ZZ) is inactive, but both look set for some volatility of their own.  [View news story]
    TPX up15%
    AAPL down 12%

    Good job Wall St. You guys are good.
    Jan 25, 2013. 08:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment