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Pinocchio1

Pinocchio1
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  • Cramer's Mad Money - Apple's Arrogance (1/24/13) [View article]
    AAPL truly does not owe anything and certainly no justifications to the shmanalysts.
    They do owe us, the owners, a slice of the cash though.
    Maybe a $10B special dividend + $10B buy-back...
    something of this order. per year.
    Jan 25, 2013. 07:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Molycorp's $1 Billion Intangible Assets Impaired? [View article]
    My total holdings in the Mining sector = 0, after selling my last MCP.

    RIO and others are great companies, making tons of money.
    But are they making more than last year? will they next year?

    I think that when the developing nations are rising, there is no more rip-off of their natural resources and no more slave-labor.
    Mining will never be as profitable as it used to

    I know this is not directly related to MCP. In MCP I would say it's mostly incompetent management, plus possibly some stuff which will come out in the ongoing investigations. People underestimate management quality.

    and if I miss some profits in this sector, so be it
    there are better opportunities out there, yes, AAPL @ 460, why not
    Jan 24, 2013. 06:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Investing, Cod, Sharks, Seaweed And A Cold Second Half Of Winter [View article]
    buddmann,
    NG/UNG might have backwardation, true
    And yes, in the short term there is a strong correlation.
    Contango is a long-term grind, it's effects are hardly noticed over a "week", but in the long term a very reliable and strong, as is shown in my Jan 2012 to Jan 2013 example.

    I doubt you can find examples to the contrary. I looked for these situations before shorting UNG... no "luck"

    My point to Tom was that the UNG backwardation is shown to be rare, short term, minimal in gap-size, and thus less risky compared to the VXX backwardations

    I respect your opinion and wish you best of luck
    Jan 21, 2013. 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Investing, Cod, Sharks, Seaweed And A Cold Second Half Of Winter [View article]
    VXX too has a contango... most of the time
    If you look at the history of VXX there are occasional huge jumps up. If you are short VXX this could be painful.
    The volatility of Vix can get much much higher than the volatility of NG. VXX can go into strong backwardation which will erase your profits and more (from shorting VXX) real fast and take very long to recover.
    NG has no backwardation by it's nature (NG storage costs etc, it's a real commodity unlike the Vix)
    So if you measure Sharpe Ratio, and if your invested money is not "bank money" I like the relatively safer play of NG

    If shorting VXX, you need to place stops (very tricky to ignore head-fakes and still have effective stops)
    and watch a whole bunch of parameters daily. Watch the futures curve, read Bill Luby, EZX index, Tom Demark... if you do all these and read the situation correctly, than Shorting VXX is a wonderful idea
    Cannot short VXX and go to a Vipassana retreat
    Jan 20, 2013. 05:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Investing, Cod, Sharks, Seaweed And A Cold Second Half Of Winter [View article]
    I am not talking about the commodity. I am talking about the ETF !!!

    The NG prices face much fundamental resistance above $3.5
    Competition from coal
    Increased supply/production
    and yes it could go up to $4 in the short term, or even higher.
    Not gonna stop me.

    Long term, short UNG will always win.
    If you shorted now, unless NG > $6 by the end of 2013, you'll be ahead by year end. Just need patience.

    Jan 22, 2012 (1 year ago):
    NG $2.32 (that's 2.32 NOT 3.32)
    UNG 20.20

    Jan 18, 2013
    NG $3.57
    UNG 20.11 (without contango, say, like GLD, UNG should have been 31.08).

    Important note
    It's the same season, meaning comm price trends and contango are similar. This is a legitimate reflection on UNG.

    There is a catch that one should be aware of
    Contango is strongest in Fall, but NG prices tend to go up
    Contango is weakest in Spring and NG prices go down.
    Hard to enjoy both effects at once.
    In the long run - contango will always win

    If you want to dig deeper
    http://bit.ly/HQcgeJ
    Take a look at ave performance: -0.16% DAILY !!!
    life time performance ave. over 7 years !!!

    If you check you'll see that the fund actually rolls under 1/2 of it's holdings as actual NG futures. the other 1/2+ is maybe more of an ETN structure, meaning that these guys are pocketing >1/2 of the contango they designed.
    Well, I want my slice of this pie, out of the teeth of the owners of this broken fund.
    They are making billions

    and, you'll not hear about all this on Bloomberg.

    Of course... one should never believe such opinions, you don't even know my name... do your own research, look at history, and take full responsibility for your transactions.
    Beware - shorts have unlimited potential loss. Keep your margins at a safe distance.
    Jan 19, 2013. 09:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Ackman's Herbalife Game? [View article]
    You are confusing futures with short selling.
    You are confusing paying up front for large orders with short-selling
    You are confusing a middle-man with short-selling.
    different things.
    None of your examples is relevant

    You are caught up in a loop trying to prove everything I say is wrong.
    Get over it.
    It's time for you to move on. I am a red flag to your brain.
    you see my name and your brain goes to la-la-land.
    Do yourself a favor - don't read me ever again.
    Jan 19, 2013. 05:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More details on Caterpillar (CAT): The company says the long-running accounting scheme was run by several senior managers, and was deliberate and well coordinated. It involved inflating profits at a unit of ERA Mining Machinery Ltd., a mining equipment company in China that it purchased last year. CAT paid ERA as much as $734M last June. It's removed those involved and installed a new leadership team there. Responsibilities for Siwei's manufacturing operations have been moved to CAT's China operations division, while its sales and support team will report to its global mining general manager for China and Korea. [View news story]
    Anyone who relies on Chinese books, law, data should be fired.
    You should know better.
    It's the #1 lying-culture in the World
    Jan 19, 2013. 04:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Investing, Cod, Sharks, Seaweed And A Cold Second Half Of Winter [View article]
    I don't understand how or why people recommend UNG?
    UNG is a Highway to 0
    Regardless of weather, supply-n-demand. It's a broken tool.
    And as long as it exists, I am short UNG
    (and while i am long LNG, CLNE, EPD...)
    Jan 18, 2013. 08:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Ackman's Herbalife Game? [View article]
    Better late than never...
    Sally, is there anywhere else in the economy the concept of "short selling"?
    Can you borrow someone's real-estate and sell it?
    Or car? or jewelry? art? drugs? anything?...

    nope. only on Wall St, you borrow someone else's property and sell it. and give it back sometime later. It's a whole set of transactions which result in nil economic activity except a 0-game gambling involving 3 parties.

    And why is it only on Wall St? this goes back to my greed theory. People in the financial sector always need the next invention to open more avenues for gambling or worse - manipulation.
    and preferably where size/information/wolf-... is an advantage.

    Some say "shorts regulate the market"
    Well, what regulates the car market? competition, old style capitalism at it's best.
    Is there anything missing in the car market? no.
    If Dodge Dart is worse than Honda Civic, it will disappear.

    Just like if HLF stock is not supported by fundamentals and/or legal status, it will disappear, without shorts. without Hackman being so patriotic (how many tours did this guy do in Iraq? how many hours volunteered in a free-kitchen... just wondering).

    The only reason this weird animal (back to shorts) exist is the power of Wall St over FTC SEC and Congress. It's a hot bed for corruption, and the strongest manipulation tool there is.
    And why downside manipulation is stronger than upside?
    because fear/panic in the market rules over any other trend.
    Look at the Vix behavior on S&P up-swings and down-swings.
    Up ticks reduce volatility, down ticks push volatility. In a world without fear, volatility would be symmetric to both sides.

    and so.. was invented the concept of shorts. The recognition of the un-symmetry of volatility and creating a whole mechanism to cash on it.
    "Supports competition and market mechanics"?
    these arguments make me sick. and I don't blame you for buying into these justifications. It's the Tea Party prof's in your university who are to blame and Wall St greed.

    BAN SHORTS !!!
    Jan 18, 2013. 08:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Shorting Apple And Going Long Natural Gas A Winning Trade Again In 2013? [View article]
    UNG?... you have to have NG go up by ~5% a month just to cover the contango...
    UNG is the surest short on the market, and of course guessing right the NG price direction can boost profits. UNG long for longer terms is the dumbest investment.

    Tom Demark said on tuesday, AAPL's downtrend is done. For those not familiar with Demark, besides being one of the best technicians, Wall St institutions listen to him, and make sure his predictions become reality. (costs $500/mo to "listen" top him)

    like they say, do your own research
    Jan 18, 2013. 06:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife's Lieberman Report: Smoke And Mirrors [View article]
    The shorts here are getting nasty...
    Time to face reality. you followed an idiot who invested in Borders and JC Penny.
    There are so many better sources for investment ideas.
    That would actually go themselves to a couple of Borders/JCP before spending $B's of investors money on finished businesses

    time to cut your losses and stop this hopeless nagging over here.
    The real squeeze is still ahead. When Hackman gets squeezed is when it will get really ugly... a rush to cover 30+% of the float... yaicks

    I know I will not be selling my long position for at least 6 months, OK maybe sell @ $70
    Jan 17, 2013. 06:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Lightning Round - I'm No Longer Fighting American Capital Agency (1/15/13) [View article]
    I enjoyed AGNC very much for a couple of years
    As soon as MORL was launched I switched over... yield over 20%
    Jan 17, 2013. 06:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's (AAPL) shares are -3.4% premarket following reports that the company has cut iPhone 5 component orders for calendar Q1 due to weaker-than-expected demand. That's possibly helping to depress sentiment on the stock-futures market, with the Nasdaq benchmark -0.4%. The Dow is flat and the S&P is +0.1%, while Europe remains mostly in the green. [View news story]
    Bear
    Anyone who can count would not be an analyst. they could get a real job
    Jan 14, 2013. 08:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The budget deficit shrank to $260M in December from $86B in the same month a year earlier and came in well below consensus of $1B. The numbers were helped by tax payments being shifted to December to avoid higher rates in 2013, says Jefferies economist Thomas Simons. "We are still going to run fairly substantial deficits this year and in coming years," he adds. [View news story]
    Facts - the deficit shrank
    Theory - "helped by tax payments being shifted"
    Really? which tax payments shifted and how? Has anyone paid the 2012 capital gains/dividends during December already? yeah? or got Jan salary early?

    WSJ for example has a different theory. more jobs, more income per hours more hours worked => more taxes

    What annoys me is that these vain Wall St types think that what happens between their ears is "facts". and in their writing there is no distinction between facts and their personal clueless opinions.
    Jan 13, 2013. 07:06 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Ackman's Herbalife Game? [View article]
    Some of your statements are not so clear to me... Fixed supply in real-estate? yes the earth is a certain size, but we build higher and wider all the time. real-estate is very similar to cars. The one difference is that cars depreciate and real-estate appreciates - and I agree that this prompts bubbles (there is no greed as a driving force in real depreciation)
    I am not sure where you live and work, but if greed is the driver in your realms, then you should get out and experience some other realities.
    In and around Wall St it might seem like greed is the main and almost only driver.
    I pity those people. and they are the exception not the rule.

    Disclosure... I have everything I need for me and my family 2 generations forward.
    At this stage I "lend" money to people in need, mostly in their 50's and 10 years away from poverty. The loans carry no interest and no inflation adjustment, and I manage their loan-investments. no 2/20 - it's 0/0.
    The profits are theirs, AND the losses on me (subtracted from the loan).
    Just to see these people see a light at the end of the hopeless tunnel they are in, is enough for me
    Why lend and not just give them money? because of taxes, my rates are high, theirs are 0.
    (I'm not against taxes, but against $700B of killing machines with absolutely no military threats to the US. terrorism yes, but you don't fight terrorism with F-35's or carriers)
    I am not alone in this. Gates, Buffet.... of course I am much smaller than them.
    People go to work in Elderly home, work with junkies, or fight fires, or plant trees, or watch the 49er's, or sex... there is a whole world out there
    Which has nothing all at in common with Ackman/Einhorn/TeaParty and the other ultra-yuppies. the world would not survive if this desease grows beyond some critical mass of society. it would turn real ugly real fast.
    Jan 13, 2013. 05:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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