Seeking Alpha

Pinocchio1

Pinocchio1
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Pinocchio1's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • House Republicans won't bring their "Plan B" tax-cut proposal to a vote tonight, as Speaker John Boehner says he doesn't have the votes; the House will recess until after Christmas. DJIA futures slip 0.2%. Boehner: "Now it is up to the president to work with Senator Reid on legislation to avert the fiscal cliff." Updated: S&P 500 e-Mini futures dive, limit down. [View news story]
    I don't find it funny at all
    It will take the markets another 3 years to recover from this Black Christmas.
    Can't wait to kick all these idiots out of congress to try to get a real job.

    Watch the futures... it's NOT funny
    Dec 20, 2012. 08:23 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife(HLF) responds in a company e-mail to Ackman's presentation earlier today, calling it distorted and inaccurate, and “yet another attempt to illegally manipulate the market by overzealous short-sellers.” HLF notes that it hires outside experts to ensure it complies with law. [View news story]
    I would prefer seeing the SEC jump on their financial-buddy Ackman.
    Wouldn't that be nice...

    HLF has been around when Ackman was in dipers. No publicly traded "pyramid" can last this long.
    I would also like to see HLF sue Ackman and drag him through hell

    Wall St sucks
    Dec 20, 2012. 07:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pershing Square's Bill Ackman gives his presentation on Herbalife (HLF -4.2%) this morning, and Barron's Brandon Conway was there to take notes. Ackman kicks it all off by saying he is in fact short the stock, but refutes the accusation that he's pushing the shares down because he owns puts due to expire at the end of the week. He focuses instead on what he sees as HLF's questionable R&D, phony reliance on PhD credentials, and flashy sales promotions as demonstrable proof of the classic pyramid scheme. Take a look: Barron's HLF presentation notes[View news story]
    Time for the SEC to earn it's salary (paid by us) and put market manipulators behind bars.
    Dec 20, 2012. 01:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife CEO Says U.S. 'Will Be Better When Bill Ackman Is Gone' [View article]
    look at the multipliers...
    Dec 20, 2012. 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife CEO Says U.S. 'Will Be Better When Bill Ackman Is Gone' [View article]
    A great opportunity to squeeze this guy out of business.
    Buy HLF today and bye bye to another market manipulator
    Dec 20, 2012. 10:26 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Surprising Truth Behind Herbalife Put Volume [View article]
    Must outlaw shorts
    It goes against the purpose of having a stock market.
    Instead of Capital raising we got Capital destruction by financial-organized-crime
    Dec 1, 2012. 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP may have risen 2.7% in Q3, but well over three years after the official end of the last recession, only three out of 76 major metropolitan economies - Knoxville, Dallas and Pittsburgh - are enjoying an economic recovery, the Brookings Institution says. Still, that's better than last year, "when the U.S. had no metro recoveries." [View news story]
    What is this nonsense
    +2.7 GDP and only 3 out of 76 met's "recovering"?
    Did someone miss the class on Averages in 3rd grade?
    Did someone just invented a new meaning for "recovery"?
    Is someone taking the real-estate bubble as a healthy norm to recover to?

    Read the original article, looks to me like a 12 year-old paper done for homework with 1 eye on Beevis-n-Butthead
    --------------
    SA has no filters. became a platform for weak-brained shmanalysts getting their 2 minutes of glory by predicting economic disaster every day. Why not do a REAL-research on how much these idiots cost the investors who sat out some major bull-markets because some idiot said the Sun will not rise tomorrow.
    ---------------
    and.. along-side them a bunch of criminal-shortists ganging on small-cap stocks. I was just watching some which had 1 day of 10x sellers to buyers. and the next day everything is balanced... no news in any search which will justify this, except some "primium" newsletter which puts on these attacks (for those who pay $1000/yr to be a part of these criminal circles)
    where is the SEC?
    Do you still wonder why the volumes are under 20% of what they used to be 5 years ago?
    Do you wonder how come the financial sector is losing ten of thousands of jobs? and tghis is just the beginning.

    Nov 30, 2012. 05:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NatGas Inventories Begin Falling Fast; Cold Snap May Send Prices Surging Above $4 [View article]
    Price movement is effected more by mathematicians with a X100 leverage than any fundamental discussion.

    The more relevant discussion would be a research on HFT %
    Nov 26, 2012. 07:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The selloff in Apple (AAPL) has reached the point of "insanely insane," says Topeka's Brain White, arguably the Street's biggest bull on the stock. Uber-bull or not, maybe he's got a point. Those selling Apple at a sub-10 PE while holding onto or buying Company X - with no earnings growth, selling at a 20 PE, but yielding 5% - may look back one day and wonder what they were thinking. [View news story]
    Deepv - About your calculation....
    Making 50B a year for 10 yrs would actually pay us back ALL our investment AND still leave us with all our holdings.
    That's NOT breaking even. That's a very attractive deal
    Also, nobody forces anybody to hold anything for 10 years.
    Would you commit to holding MSFT, IBM, INTC, ORCL for 10 years? and people still trade these stocks
    For me once AAPL's expected cap growth levels at 15%/year, I sell.
    Certainly not now
    Selling now is panic.
    That's not what Buffet recommends "when everyone is fearful..." well everyone has been fearful for the last 8 weeks
    BTW, in recent years ir was AAPL who made others look like toasters. WHo make make AAPL look toaster?
    MSFT with it's wheel chair?
    Nov 19, 2012. 08:22 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mellanox On The Road To Technological Obsolescence [View article]
    I am back...
    The earnings beat estimates by 20%, over +400% Y/Y
    MLNX fwd P/E assuming holding steady (0% growth) for 3 Q's is now at 15.
    Since the earnings drop, exactly 1 month, MLNX is +7% (even with a war in Gaza which cost them ~5%), S&P is -6%.
    Are you still short from here out? and if not, how come?
    If you are short MLNX now, I would get out before a Gaza cease-fire.

    So the drop was way over-done, maybe fueled by some shortists' articles? maybe, dont know. Also there was a ~50% gap waiting to be filled, technically. It did.
    We'll meet here again Dec 30th or March 31th

    I don't work in MLNX never did never will.
    I worked for DOX for a few years as a computer room architect... Specializing in Disaster Recovery, I understand "fairly well" every piece which goes into/outside every server.
    Met the analysts covering DOX at the time. They had no clue, we never spent the time to educate them either. Guys from Gartner who recently recommended Better Place (Israeli electric cars company which are powered on LSD, the management, not the cars)

    articles and ratings do effect stocks, temporarily, but eventually fundamentals win.
    I do stand by my opinion that your understanding of their technology and their future prospects in their current and future products is weak, and not only you - 99% of technology-specialized analysts as well, let alone wide-market analysts.

    You got the stock movement right, although the earnings pointed 20% higher
    Look carefully at this
    http://bit.ly/S4PTCs
    Look at what the earnings graph tells you
    and see where the analysts projections are - past and future...
    Look at their past misses. totally clueless.

    Another reminder of a point you seem to ignore - there are much better shorts than Israel's hitek.
    Once they root, they take off, often become world leaders in their niche. And when shorting, your losses can be very large. Shortists do hit calls, but can throw away all their gains on multiple good calls, on 1 bad call, or 1 badly timed call.
    I think you were very lucky here, the next few months will tell.
    Nov 18, 2012. 07:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fiscal Cliff: How Bad Would It Be? [View article]
    If Uncle Ben did 1 thing right, it's operation twist which locked the debt to long-term negative real interest rates.
    If interest rates - and inflation - go up, it will actually reduce the burden... 10 years down the road, 30 years... negative real rates.
    You balance the budget from here onwards - and the deficit goes away on its own.
    The "cliff" is actually a flowery meadow
    Japan lives with double the debt/GDP for decades. and the media is all hyped, but the regular person in Tokyo couldn't care less.

    and last but not least - the Fed can print as much money as it wants. always had always will.

    The only "problem" is that financial media needs drama and we get bombarded with gloom-n-doom articles every day.
    Sane realistic views are no news.
    Same with politicians - they like the TV, and this "fiscal cliff" gives them air time they could only dream off, and this includes Uncle Ben. He just loves the stage.
    Nov 12, 2012. 09:05 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • France's GDP will slide 0.1% in Q4, the country's central banks predicts. With the bank also estimating that Q3 GDP fell 0.1%, that would put France in recession. Economist say the news shows the government's forecast for 0.8% GDP growth next year is optimistic, especially with all those cutbacks it plans. No wonder Germany is worried[View news story]
    Ohhhh.... again, binary thinking supports the doom-prophets
    A couple of Q's below 0 => recession
    If for example you have
    Q1 +0.1%
    Q2 -0.6%
    Q3 +0.1%
    Q4 -0.6%

    No recession...
    I know economists are not the sharpest, especially the financial sector.
    But even they heard in College about trailing ave, weighted trailing ave... use whatever method, but SOMETHING WHICH MAKES SENSE !!!!

    An example that these guys are not the sharpest?
    Take your ave bear for example - since the media loves negative news, the Bears get the headlines
    Well... the S&P trading volumes are about a 1/4 of what they were a few years ago.
    The bears are pumping their headlines, and the private investor says - "see you later"
    and... the bear loses his job !!! there are no commission to sustain his outrageous salary
    and this I call - not the sharpest

    I have no beef with people stating their honest opinion.
    But Last Summer there were over 50% of the shmanalysts promising a recession ("100% chance"... they missed the lesson on percentages) hoping for a national TV exposure. They got it. Good job. The shmanalysts and the media
    Nov 9, 2012. 07:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Cliffs are in fashion this fall," economist Ed Yardeni writes. Not only is there the fiscal cliff, there's the political cliff and the revenue cliff. “If they fall off of it,” says Yardeni, "so will the profit margin." Which makes for an earnings cliff too. Then there's the "capital strike," described by Barclays' Barry Knapp as industry's reluctance to invest until we know the election result and whether the fiscal cliff will be averted. [View news story]
    How many doom-prophets have we heard while the markets went up 12%

    The shmanalysts need to change the pills
    Or maybe it's the media
    Oct 28, 2012. 07:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Making A Case For U.S. Treasuries [View article]
    As soon as operation twist ends TLT will crash
    the trading range of the 10-year has higher lows and higher highs -> clear trending to higher yields.
    Uncle B can manipulate bonds only for so long

    The recent 7-year drew the lowest bidding ever. Meaning very few are left that think that being committed to long-term negative real yield is a good deal.
    I'd rather be in cash

    I just got a truck-load of DTYS (short the 7-10 yr) and expecting to make a bundle within 12 months
    Oct 28, 2012. 08:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The fiscal cliff could knock a lot more out of GDP than the 3% being bandied about, says Jamie Dimon, because the analysis doesn't take into account people's reaction. CEOs he's talking to are clearly delaying investment decisions and hiring plans. [View news story]
    I can't believe Dimon is being quoted. anywhere and anything

    The hair is no indication of what's underneath
    Oct 26, 2012. 07:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
206 Comments
300 Likes