jswede

Sirius XM Radio Attacked Unfairly by Media

speaking of misleading..... "There is absolutely no chance that Sirius XM will file for bankruptcy in the next 12 months...Simply put, Sirius XM has absolutely no debt issues prior to the year 2013 that could cause such an event to occur."

Simply put: BRANDON MATTHEWS IS LYING TO YOU.

Sirius makes ZERO money, yet has the following debt obligations (principal+interest) BEFORE 2013:

$371mil in Dec 2009
$398mil in 2010
$691mil in 2011
$518mil in 2012

all this BEFORE the $2bil bomb in 2013....

Sirius Can Avoid Bankruptcy

AA "crushes" on net income down 76% from year earlier.... just crushing... lol

On Oct 07 04:14 PM between the hedges_ wrote:

> Alcoa crushes estimates and reports surprise profit. Short this 3q
> at your own peril!!! No one will be able to say that I didn't warn
> you. Cash about to pour pour in from sidelines.

Sirius XM Finds New Ways to Fill Its Proverbial Bucket

I'm looking at the debt only b/c it's bad enough.... if you want to bring in the income statement, let's look at what matters: not Revenue, but NET INCOME.... (you see, there's a cost to achieve that revenue...)

NET INCOME:

Q2 09: -$157mil
Q1 09: -$50mil
Q4 08: -$245mil
Q3 08: we'll skip this b/c it involved a $4.8bil 'one-time' loss
Q2 08: -$259mil
Q1 08: -$287mil
Q4 07: -$166mil
Q3 07: -$120mil
Q2 07: -$134mil
Q1 07: -$144mil
Q4 06: -$245mil

they've just doubled the debt and increased the yearly interest cost by more than 3x in the last year....

Sirius XM Finds New Ways to Fill Its Proverbial Bucket

that's straight off my Bloomberg terminal. up to the minute. shocking you guys aren't aware of this... just shocking.

$354mil for 2009? That would be $227,515,000 principal of the 10%cpn of 12/1/09 convertible (CUSIP 983759AC5), $33,249,080 principal of the 10%cpn of 12/1/09 (CUSIP 983759AB7), and another $90mil in interest.

yea, I'm aware of "mm" terminology. use it every day.


On Oct 02 10:00 AM Pell wrote:

> Hmmmmm jswede where did you get that info.

And if you know anything about finance use
> the big boy way to reflect a number $354MM etc.

Sirius XM Finds New Ways to Fill Its Proverbial Bucket

Sirius bonds/loans principal and interest due:

2009 $354mil
2010 $398mil
2011 $691mil
2012 $518mil
2013 $2.047bil
2014 $619mil
2015 $282mil

this company has never made money and is now losing subscribers. how do they pay for this again?

they won't -- this is a deaad company walking.

Negative Media Attacks Plague Sirius XM Radio

"Despite it being a mathematical impossibility that Sirius XM Radio will file for bankruptcy in the next year".....

it's good you're lining up your 'manipulation' and 'media attack' excuses... you'll need them.

as an aside, I find it funny you say "mathmatical impossibility" when you have never done the actual math on the debt side. niever. ever. I've searched -- NONE of you bulls have ever done the math.

bankruptcy is not only possible, it's very likely. This company cannot afford $500mil/yr in debt service, nor can they afford the $billions in debt maturities coming in the next years...

If any poster thinks that Siri CAN, in fact, cover the debt service and debt maturities, I'd love to see the analysis... I've asked so many times and had to response that this is no doubt a lost cause, but hey, maybe I've just asked the wrong people...

Sat Waves doesn't even understand debt offerings, debt service, interest rates, or the current debt market... yet somehow they feel you can speak on these topics freely, passing along inaccuracies to retail investors who then put their hard-earned money at risk on their word... I have no stake in Siri anymore, but I have a real problem with that.

The latest sideline cash report: American investors have $3.5T in cash - equal to 73% of the S&P 500's net assets - even after reducing money-market accounts by 11%, according to a new study. At the peak of the bull market in 2007, the figure was 62% of S&P assets.

'cash on the sidelines' fallacy:

www.hussman.net/wmc/wm...

A study shows massive pay differences among banking CEOs, with U.S. pay towering over the rest of the world. Jiang Jianqing, chairman of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China - the world's largest bank - made $234,700 last year, less than 2% of the $19.6M for Jamie Dimon, CEO of fourth-largest JPMorgan Chase (JPM).

it's a communist country - what do you expect

It's Hard to Be Sirius

perhaps not a great article, but taking the article+comments together is a concise microcosm of this stock:

most people (ie author) don't "get" why anyone would spend $10-15/mo on a Sirius subscription, while the 7-8% of Americans who do have a subscription (ie Siri forum posters) don't "get" why anyone would NOT get one -- they think the whole world will have a subscription, if not several, in the next few years...

fact is that the fanatical Sirius base ALREADY HAS their subscription, and there's not a significant pool of potential subscribers left.... nearly 20 millions subs and declining...

maybe Sirius will push 20 mil again, who knows - the problem is that Sirius would have to increase their base by 50%+ (and quickly) to make out from their pile of debt... and that's not going to come close to happening. As we all know it's declining right now...

Cable/Sat TV has ~65mil subscriptions.... Sirius isn't going to ever approach half of that.

Is the FHA a Bailout Waiting to Happen?

check Denninger's Market Ticket today -- latest data:

22.9% of all FHA loans are either delinquent or in foreclosure....

incredible considering that they used to have VERY conservative lending standards, as noted above....

Is the FHA a Bailout Waiting to Happen?

they USED to. not anymore. they don't even publish the FICO scores of their borrowers anymore....

consider that and the fact that they are doing 95%+ (going to 125% ?) ltv loans, they bumped their 'max' loan size up by nearly 3x to ~$720k, and you have yourself a subprime shop at the expense of the American Taxpayer.


On Sep 21 11:45 AM KingGeithner wrote:

> This article propagates a lot of the incorrect criticism about FHA
> loans. FHA purchases actually have substantially more red tape to
> clear than other mortgages, more documentation requirements on personal
> finances, and higher credit scores requirements.

Is the FHA a Bailout Waiting to Happen?

the quality is CRAP. see my post above. it's crap - they are taking all the 'problem loans' and making 'mod' loans to somehow save these bad apples.... that and 1st time buyers is 95% of the FHA volume.... 95% loan-to-value and up.

FHA is NOT doing higher quality -- FHA is the administrations last gasp 'solution' to falling home prices - they are taking most ANY borrower.... their old, conservative lending guidelines are LONG gone...

On Sep 21 11:36 AM Kansas City Shuffle wrote:

> Don't get me wrong, I love quoting the cheesy Green Street Hooligans/West
> Ham song as much as the next guy (Roger Knights)...but this article
> has nothing to it. There is some good data available on this and
> there is nothing data-wise in this article. Although FHA has jumped
> from nothing to a huge part of the market, in complete antithesis
> to your argument, the credit scores of their borrowers are actually
> vastly improving because you are getting the higher quality that
> usually could get private insurance. So saying they are screwed based
> on large volume ignores the quality of the volume.

Is the FHA a Bailout Waiting to Happen?

here's a look at a random Aug 2008 GNMA security -- $417 million original size; 465 loans in the pool. Loans made at 92% Loan-to-value.

Delinquency Status #Loans Percent Loan Amount
30 days Delinq Loans 41 8.48 20,473,322
60 days Delinq Loans 26 5.23 12,626,825
90+ days Delinq Loans 81 17.41 42,033,082

reminder, this is 1yr later. 30% delinquent. This is typical. losses will be paid entirely by the taxpayer.

20 Companies Most Likely to Go Bankrupt in Next Year

wow RAF - that's a new one: the number of shares sold short vs shares available to cover with means nothing.... ok.

I suppose 124 million shares sold short has the same relevance whether the float is 125million or 125 billion.... ok.

you should not be managing anyone's money - not even your own.


On Sep 18 08:38 AM R A F wrote:

> jswede - I would suggest you pay close close attention to all data
> and commentary released in November and February with regard to your
> debt service concerns mentioned above. This topic will surely be
> thoroughly addressed at that time, both in the formal comments as
> well as the Q & A that will follow. As far as your thoughts
> about the exceptionally high level of short interest are concerned
> - please keep your eye on the ball, which is the absolute number
> - 124.7 million shares - not some absolute version of percentages,
> float, etc. The pain to holders of short positions is solely related
> to the number of shares they must cover in a rising market - not
> some "hypothetical" number such as # of days to cover, etc. Have
> a good day, jswede, and keep trying to cover your position on pullbacks,
> if you get a chance.

20 Companies Most Likely to Go Bankrupt in Next Year

is that right? "extremely high"? Your expert opinion?

Short interest is at 124mil shares - excluding last month's 119mil, that's the LOWEST it's been sine March '08. It's 64% lower than just 2 months ago (194mil on 6/30). It was at 270mil shares in Jan, and averaged 275mil all of last fall.

3.3% of the the SIRI float is sold short. (124mil out of 3.77bil float) By comparison to any other media stock out there, that's TINY. For comparison, Charter Comm is at 5.6%, Liberty is at 4.8% and DTV is over 19%.

SIRI Short Interest Ratio (shares short / volume) is also at one of the lowest levels all year, at 1.48x -- it was 7.36x in June and over 11x in January.

More 'hope' and half-truths on your part, RAF. Actually no, that was a flat out lie.

Why don't you tell me RAF, year by year, how they will be able to pay interest of $400mil/yr for the next 3 years (plus $400mil in principal in '11, and a $246mil loan in '12), then another $2.2bil in interest and principal in '13? That's over $4 billion.

They need to make about a BILLION per year for the next 4yrs just to break even. Lay it out for me smart guy - how are they going to do that?


On Sep 17 11:53 PM R A F wrote:

> With short interest still running extremely high - 124,769,789
> shares as of 8/31 - it's not surprising we are seeing some of the
> comments above. The continuing strength of SIRI has done major damage
> to these shorts and threatens to do substantially more in coming
> weeks and months.