jswede

jswede
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  • First Republic Bank: Stay Away From Its New Preferred  [View article]
    yes Chuck. Meant for the author, who describes himself as working for a "Fortune 500" investment company.
    May 29, 2015. 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Republic Bank: Stay Away From Its New Preferred  [View article]
    you must be an intern at this "Fortune 500" company.... FRC is best in class, trades at 2.1x book and 4.6x sales, vs 0.77x/1.9x and 1.14x/2.4x, for BAC and JPM, respectively.

    If you think these should be trading in line, then your best is to be long the common of JPM (10.7x P/E) and BAC (11.9x P/E), vs shorting FRC's 20x P/E.

    apparently anyone can post here?
    May 28, 2015. 10:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Blackstone slows home-buying binge  [View news story]
    AH4R was 56% rented out in August, and at that point had 20,000 homes ($3.4bil) and was still buying at a $100mil/mo clip.... since then they've cut a lot of staff and the CFO resigned in Feb.
    Mar 14, 2014. 03:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GE Takes a Big Stake in Sirius XM  [View article]
    "While a 2 million dollar investment by a company the size of GE may seem paltry, the initial stake in Sirius XM is larger than 50% of GE's reported holdings, including such names as Clorox (CLX), Disney (DIS), Verizon (VZ) & Apple (AAPL)!"

    nevermind the facts: GE's AAPL stake is $463mil, VZ is $59mil, CLX is $118mil, and DIS is $73mil.
    Nov 15, 2010. 04:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Debt Upgraded to 'B With Positive Implications'  [View article]
    I don't think the company will fail. I never did - check my many many posts. As long as you don't count the $3.1bil in debt, it's a great company.

    The common stock, as we know it today, is going to be worth zero after the inevitable restructuring. It's always been a debt and balance sheet issue with me.

    I am impressed with some of the debt refinancing (and common share dilution done seemingly without shareholders noticing or caring) over the last year+. It took the greatest high yield debt rally and general market optimism of all time to do it, but they made some progress... not nearly enough to change the inevitable, but they certainly took advantage.

    now only $530mil in p&i for 2011, $294mil in 2012, $1.6bil in 2013, and $1.8 in 14/15...... $4.2bil. what's Siri's FCF again? Again, excluding debt service costs, everything looks rosy.

    The common shares getting out from under this debt has always has been, and will continue to be, an impossibility. I laid the math out a long time ago, and it was irrefutable. I was "proven" wrong however, as consensus on this message board was that SiriXM would have over 30mil subscribers (on their way to 50mil) by now...

    in simple terms, they were 'too early' to offer something like this - Siri made fixed investments back when the price was incredibly high. they are paying for that now -- that price is debt, and it does not go away when you're barely paying the bills to begin with, it just gets extended. the barrier to entry for competition is so low these days, they'll never grab the market share they need to get out.

    according to discussions from 2yrs ago, Pandora and lastFM were to be ancient history by now, and ubiquitous WiFi was a pipe dream -- a memorable post was mentioning a few years back that WiFi was coming to the car in the near future... I was called a nut for even thinking it. Now it's an option, on its way to being standard.

    but wait, it's all about 'content' - I forgot. except now I read that keeping the talent isn't as important anymore...

    good luck trading everyone. and RAF, you keep believing in your conspiracies - it's always someone else's fault...
    Oct 4, 2010. 01:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Debt Upgraded to 'B With Positive Implications'  [View article]
    a "B" rating is the 15th lowest (out of 21) S&P ratings.

    a "B" rating assumes approximately a 20% chance of default within 3 years, 30% within 5yrs, and nearly 50% within 10 years.

    (gee, I wonder how many 'thumbs down' I will get for stating some facts...?)
    Oct 4, 2010. 11:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Capital and Worldspace Revisited  [View article]
    I bet the new Audi A8 with full wifi won't have Sirius.... bye bye high end.
    Aug 31, 2010. 03:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Doesn't Sirius React to Positive News?  [View article]
    the stock is trading close to zero bc the bondholders will own this company in 2013
    Aug 27, 2010. 01:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hugh Hendry's Eclectica Fund Likes Annaly Capital Management  [View article]
    looks to me like a nice play if you believe in low short term rates going forward. credit quality of assets is not an issue.

    I recommend following Hugh as much as you can, after losing 8% in 2009, he's still 50% ahead of the market since 1/1/08.
    Mar 25, 2010. 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hugh Hendry's Eclectica Fund Likes Annaly Capital Management  [View article]
    what Hugh Hendry thinks of NLY "now" b/c of a Sterne Agee downgrade...???

    he's buying more I guarantee -- Sterne is just another lemming.
    Mar 25, 2010. 11:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look at Sirius XM Radio‚Äôs Debt Refinancing: Part II  [View article]
    SIRI just added $250mil in net debt. why, if business is so good?

    'extend and pretend' -- thi scompany will never get out from under its debt.
    Mar 15, 2010. 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts on the 0.00% Yield  [View article]
    "And then wait for rates to rise. Because I am certain they will. "

    you'll be waiting a long, long time. rates are not going up for a long time...

    but say they do, the 'cost of waiting' will still be incredibly high. grabbing 3.50% on the 10 year means you are earning 3.50% more per year than in money market. if rates stay low, after 2yrs, you're 7% behind, 3yrs, over 10% behind.... if short term rates then finally rise, they'd need to average ~5% for the next 7 years for you to just *break even* over those 10yrs. now THAT is taking a risk.

    you'd better be right that short-term rates not only rise, but that they will rise high and quick. likley you'll be in hole that you'll never fully climb out of - that is, grabbing 3.50% TODAY would have been the right call.
    Mar 15, 2010. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Debt Picture Set to Improve Substantially  [View article]
    that debt matured on 12/1/09
    Mar 8, 2010. 08:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Starts vs. Skeptics  [View article]
    with the NAHB (SA) at 15 and dropping since September, now back to June levels, chances are beyond slim that you are correct.
    Jan 20, 2010. 01:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Has Over 35 Million Smart, Rich Listeners - Arbitron Study  [View article]
    that's just brutal news.... 35million subscribers and still losing money... wow. the pool of potential subscribers is not nearly large enough to turn this around. restructuring coming -- today's common is toast.
    Jan 15, 2010. 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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