jswede

135 Comments

    • Google Looks Too Cheap to Ignore [view article]
      "Let's see. Google is basically an advertising company with a P/E of 27 in a debt based economy that is collapsing. "

      whoa, whoa, whoa..... last I checked they were only 98.9% ad-based revenue... but seriously, you are spot on.       Oct 01 04:54 PM
    • Sirius XM On the Rise - Does Microsoft Want a Piece? [view article]
      "jswede, you are so full of blank, your eyes are brown. Where do you get this? You are just a fat bald man without a job, sitting behind a computer, knowing absolutely zero about this stock."

      I know a little about the stock - I used to own it and was quite the bull until about 9 mos ago.

      I've got a full head of hair and I sit behind a bloomberg, trading bonds. A little heavier than I'd like, I'll admit.

      and I don't post here everyday. not close.       Sep 26 02:15 PM
    • Sirius XM On the Rise - Does Microsoft Want a Piece? [view article]
      If MSFT, AAPL, GOOG or whomever come in with capital, exisiting shareholders are done. SIRI has zero leverage in a negotiation and WILL give away most all of its upside in a capital infusion.

      SIRI eventually making it is not tantamount to victory for current shareholders. The stock could go to $10 eventually, but existing shares will be worth on the order of 1/20 after the imminent dilution.       Sep 26 11:57 AM
    • Why It's Time for Muni Bonds [view article]
      stick with UTGO (unlimited tax general obligation) bonds issued by school districts -- perhaps stay out of FL, MI, OH, CA... the Texas school system uses a Fund to enhance the credit - the Permanent School Fund, or PSF - that's probabaly the best credit in the world - no exaggeration. The fund is bigger than the notional amount outstanding of bonds it "insures"... what's more, no TX schoold system has ever had to lean on the PSF for help... school bonds are about as safe as they come...

      By buying smaller school districts you are also staying away from larger issuers that have been implementing swaps and derivatives that are coming back to burn them (eg Orange Co CA in the 90s and Jefferson AL today)

      As far as imminent defaults per RJK's post, I agree that's an issue that should be addressed. However, Gen. Obl. and Essential Purpose Revenue bonds (ie Water/Sewer) are as safe as they get -- it's hardly a stretch to say that they never default. and if they do, they are usually eligible for aid to keep the cashflows coming while they righten themselves... a municipality can't just declare bankruptcy and close shop like a company can... they need the market for future borrowing so they will act accordingly.

      investinginbonds.com answers a lot of questions.       Sep 25 03:41 PM
    • Bill Gross on the Bailout Plan [view article]
      this COULD be a great investment for Paulsen's Hedge Fund, but last I heard from him, he was talking about buying at near-par "HTM" levels... that would be a disater. Sep 24 02:26 PM
    • Is Sirius XM Headed the Way of Old Radio? [view article]
      "LOL You messed. You should have stayed out of this one JSWEDE. You see now every knows your just a troll, and will never listen to you again. "

      >>> hilarious. anyway, just for the record, I've been talking about IR as potentially damaging competition for SR since the spring. Well before I heard any analysts talk about it. Ask Cos. Now several analysts, including permabull (since $8) Stifel are acknowledging it.       Sep 16 08:44 AM
    • Is Sirius XM Headed the Way of Old Radio? [view article]
      I really think you are too stuck in September 2008 in your analysis, 163888.... look forward... future.

      Anyway --- I hear you - your comments/thoughts are not without merit, imo. just a difference in opinion about where this is going.       Sep 15 05:03 PM
    • Is Sirius XM Headed the Way of Old Radio? [view article]
      I don't disagree with your last post all too much, 163888. That is pretty much the current state... but it's all evolving. Listening to IR away from the house was fantasy a few years ago -- as of this summer, I do it all the time.... and I'll say again:

      what's to stop anyone from creating an internet radio station and utilizing the exact same subscription/content platform as SiriXM?

      Much of Siri's problems are that they had to build the infrastructure themselves -- at prices they locked into years ago, when that cost was much higher, and they are still deep in debt from it. IR doesn't have that problem at all - the infrastructure is built - and delivery over wireless improving by the month.

      I am NOT saying IR is going to take over - certainly not anytime soon. I am NOT saying IR is a viable competitor as it stands TODAY.... I AM saying that Sat Radio will have competition going fwd from IR. and Sat Radio cannot afford even a little competition.

      I concur with the author that eventually, IR will win.       Sep 15 04:58 PM
    • Is Sirius XM Headed the Way of Old Radio? [view article]
      "No specialty shoes, live concerts, sports, howard, oprah, mad dog, and those funny guys. The content will win out. "

      >>> with no debt to deal with, why couldn't a competitor using internet radio pay for content?       Sep 15 04:31 PM
    • Is Sirius XM Headed the Way of Old Radio? [view article]
      I'm not saying "taking over", Relmor --- just saying that it's competition... however little bit it takes into Siri revenues, Siri cannot afford it... Sep 15 04:29 PM
    • Is Sirius XM Headed the Way of Old Radio? [view article]
      my point about internet radio is not specific to any one company - Pandora is just an example - if they go away, there will be more and more

      the point is that as the internet radio platform matures, there's no stopping anyone to step in and use the exact same subscription/content platform that SiriXM uses, only over internet radio. virtually no startup costs, no debt to deal with, and the hardware will be cheap.... with my laptop/iPhone, and soon standard in cars, I already have the "player"...       Sep 15 04:28 PM
    • Is Sirius XM Headed the Way of Old Radio? [view article]
      "Hence proof of this Pantora, and the exact reason they gave for having to shut their doors. "

      >> just turned on Pandora on my iPhone. works just fine.       Sep 15 03:41 PM
    • How Sirius XM Should Handle Supply and Demand [view article]
      good points, as always, cos. they are not the same animal, but I point to the attempt to raise capital as a barometer of the credit market... CCC deals were not even double digits 18 mos ago.... now they can't be placed at 18% Sep 13 08:13 PM
    • How Sirius XM Should Handle Supply and Demand [view article]
      Relmor sez.....***** "Like I said before, to finance the merger Mel got EXACTLY the financing he wanted." *****

      www.bloomberg.com/apps...

      excerpts from the story:

      Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Sirius XM Radio Inc. struck an ``ugly'' debt deal to close the merger of the only two U.S. satellite radio operators, Chief Executive Officer Mel Karmazin said....

      ....``I hated it,'' the 64-year-old CEO said in an interview yesterday in New York. ``It was unfortunate, but we did it.''....

      ....Karmazin didn't seek refinancing until he was sure U.S. regulators would approve the takeover.

      ``If the merger didn't happen, we didn't want to do anything in the market,'' Karmazin said.....

      ....``The market on Monday was very ugly,'' Karmazin said. ``The book was not looking good.'' He took the deal.....



      and the market is worse, much worse, and getting worse, since then...       Sep 13 08:08 PM
    • How Sirius XM Should Handle Supply and Demand [view article]
      "And like I said, they still almost pulled it off. "

      >>> selling $238mil out of $980mil is "almost pulling it off"??????       Sep 13 05:52 PM
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