jswede's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/106643/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/165679-sirius-xm-radio-attacked-unfairly-by-media?source=feed#comment-710328 710328
Simply put: BRANDON MATTHEWS IS LYING TO YOU.

Sirius makes ZERO money, yet has the following debt obligations (principal+interest) BEFORE 2013:

$371mil in Dec 2009
$398mil in 2010
$691mil in 2011
$518mil in 2012

all this BEFORE the $2bil bomb in 2013....]]> Fri, 09 Oct 2009 10:43:09 -0400
Simply put: BRANDON MATTHEWS IS LYING TO YOU.

Sirius makes ZERO money, yet has the following debt obligations (principal+interest) BEFORE 2013:

$371mil in Dec 2009
$398mil in 2010
$691mil in 2011
$518mil in 2012

all this BEFORE the $2bil bomb in 2013....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165206-sirius-can-avoid-bankruptcy?source=feed#comment-707560 707560
On Oct 07 04:14 PM between the hedges_ wrote:

> Alcoa crushes estimates and reports surprise profit. Short this 3q
> at your own peril!!! No one will be able to say that I didn't warn
> you. Cash about to pour pour in from sidelines.]]> Wed, 07 Oct 2009 16:34:48 -0400
On Oct 07 04:14 PM between the hedges_ wrote:

> Alcoa crushes estimates and reports surprise profit. Short this 3q
> at your own peril!!! No one will be able to say that I didn't warn
> you. Cash about to pour pour in from sidelines.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164217-sirius-xm-finds-new-ways-to-fill-its-proverbial-bucket?source=feed#comment-700050 700050
NET INCOME:

Q2 09: -$157mil
Q1 09: -$50mil
Q4 08: -$245mil
Q3 08: we'll skip this b/c it involved a $4.8bil 'one-time' loss
Q2 08: -$259mil
Q1 08: -$287mil
Q4 07: -$166mil
Q3 07: -$120mil
Q2 07: -$134mil
Q1 07: -$144mil
Q4 06: -$245mil

they've just doubled the debt and increased the yearly interest cost by more than 3x in the last year.... ]]> Fri, 02 Oct 2009 11:28:45 -0400
NET INCOME:

Q2 09: -$157mil
Q1 09: -$50mil
Q4 08: -$245mil
Q3 08: we'll skip this b/c it involved a $4.8bil 'one-time' loss
Q2 08: -$259mil
Q1 08: -$287mil
Q4 07: -$166mil
Q3 07: -$120mil
Q2 07: -$134mil
Q1 07: -$144mil
Q4 06: -$245mil

they've just doubled the debt and increased the yearly interest cost by more than 3x in the last year.... ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164217-sirius-xm-finds-new-ways-to-fill-its-proverbial-bucket?source=feed#comment-699932 699932
$354mil for 2009? That would be $227,515,000 principal of the 10%cpn of 12/1/09 convertible (CUSIP 983759AC5), $33,249,080 principal of the 10%cpn of 12/1/09 (CUSIP 983759AB7), and another $90mil in interest.

yea, I'm aware of "mm" terminology. use it every day.


On Oct 02 10:00 AM Pell wrote:

> Hmmmmm jswede where did you get that info.

And if you know anything about finance use
> the big boy way to reflect a number $354MM etc.]]> Fri, 02 Oct 2009 10:49:17 -0400
$354mil for 2009? That would be $227,515,000 principal of the 10%cpn of 12/1/09 convertible (CUSIP 983759AC5), $33,249,080 principal of the 10%cpn of 12/1/09 (CUSIP 983759AB7), and another $90mil in interest.

yea, I'm aware of "mm" terminology. use it every day.


On Oct 02 10:00 AM Pell wrote:

> Hmmmmm jswede where did you get that info.

And if you know anything about finance use
> the big boy way to reflect a number $354MM etc.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164217-sirius-xm-finds-new-ways-to-fill-its-proverbial-bucket?source=feed#comment-699813 699813
2009 $354mil
2010 $398mil
2011 $691mil
2012 $518mil
2013 $2.047bil
2014 $619mil
2015 $282mil

this company has never made money and is now losing subscribers. how do they pay for this again?

they won't -- this is a deaad company walking.]]> Fri, 02 Oct 2009 09:46:24 -0400
2009 $354mil
2010 $398mil
2011 $691mil
2012 $518mil
2013 $2.047bil
2014 $619mil
2015 $282mil

this company has never made money and is now losing subscribers. how do they pay for this again?

they won't -- this is a deaad company walking.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163848-negative-media-attacks-plague-sirius-xm-radio?source=feed#comment-695197 695197
it's good you're lining up your 'manipulation' and 'media attack' excuses... you'll need them.

as an aside, I find it funny you say "mathmatical impossibility" when you have never done the actual math on the debt side. niever. ever. I've searched -- NONE of you bulls have ever done the math.

bankruptcy is not only possible, it's very likely. This company cannot afford $500mil/yr in debt service, nor can they afford the $billions in debt maturities coming in the next years...

If any poster thinks that Siri CAN, in fact, cover the debt service and debt maturities, I'd love to see the analysis... I've asked so many times and had to response that this is no doubt a lost cause, but hey, maybe I've just asked the wrong people...

Sat Waves doesn't even understand debt offerings, debt service, interest rates, or the current debt market... yet somehow they feel you can speak on these topics freely, passing along inaccuracies to retail investors who then put their hard-earned money at risk on their word... I have no stake in Siri anymore, but I have a real problem with that.]]> Tue, 29 Sep 2009 10:16:57 -0400
it's good you're lining up your 'manipulation' and 'media attack' excuses... you'll need them.

as an aside, I find it funny you say "mathmatical impossibility" when you have never done the actual math on the debt side. niever. ever. I've searched -- NONE of you bulls have ever done the math.

bankruptcy is not only possible, it's very likely. This company cannot afford $500mil/yr in debt service, nor can they afford the $billions in debt maturities coming in the next years...

If any poster thinks that Siri CAN, in fact, cover the debt service and debt maturities, I'd love to see the analysis... I've asked so many times and had to response that this is no doubt a lost cause, but hey, maybe I've just asked the wrong people...

Sat Waves doesn't even understand debt offerings, debt service, interest rates, or the current debt market... yet somehow they feel you can speak on these topics freely, passing along inaccuracies to retail investors who then put their hard-earned money at risk on their word... I have no stake in Siri anymore, but I have a real problem with that.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/33225?source=feed#comment-693998 693998
www.hussman.net/wmc/wm...]]> Mon, 28 Sep 2009 11:53:18 -0400
www.hussman.net/wmc/wm...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/32991?source=feed#comment-687610 687610 Wed, 23 Sep 2009 10:53:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/162590-it-s-hard-to-be-sirius?source=feed#comment-685325 685325
most people (ie author) don't "get" why anyone would spend $10-15/mo on a Sirius subscription, while the 7-8% of Americans who do have a subscription (ie Siri forum posters) don't "get" why anyone would NOT get one -- they think the whole world will have a subscription, if not several, in the next few years...

fact is that the fanatical Sirius base ALREADY HAS their subscription, and there's not a significant pool of potential subscribers left.... nearly 20 millions subs and declining...

maybe Sirius will push 20 mil again, who knows - the problem is that Sirius would have to increase their base by 50%+ (and quickly) to make out from their pile of debt... and that's not going to come close to happening. As we all know it's declining right now...

Cable/Sat TV has ~65mil subscriptions.... Sirius isn't going to ever approach half of that.]]> Mon, 21 Sep 2009 17:07:53 -0400
most people (ie author) don't "get" why anyone would spend $10-15/mo on a Sirius subscription, while the 7-8% of Americans who do have a subscription (ie Siri forum posters) don't "get" why anyone would NOT get one -- they think the whole world will have a subscription, if not several, in the next few years...

fact is that the fanatical Sirius base ALREADY HAS their subscription, and there's not a significant pool of potential subscribers left.... nearly 20 millions subs and declining...

maybe Sirius will push 20 mil again, who knows - the problem is that Sirius would have to increase their base by 50%+ (and quickly) to make out from their pile of debt... and that's not going to come close to happening. As we all know it's declining right now...

Cable/Sat TV has ~65mil subscriptions.... Sirius isn't going to ever approach half of that.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162481-is-the-fha-a-bailout-waiting-to-happen?source=feed#comment-684977 684977
22.9% of all FHA loans are either delinquent or in foreclosure....

incredible considering that they used to have VERY conservative lending standards, as noted above....]]> Mon, 21 Sep 2009 12:03:38 -0400
22.9% of all FHA loans are either delinquent or in foreclosure....

incredible considering that they used to have VERY conservative lending standards, as noted above....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162481-is-the-fha-a-bailout-waiting-to-happen?source=feed#comment-684970 684970
consider that and the fact that they are doing 95%+ (going to 125% ?) ltv loans, they bumped their 'max' loan size up by nearly 3x to ~$720k, and you have yourself a subprime shop at the expense of the American Taxpayer.


On Sep 21 11:45 AM KingGeithner wrote:

> This article propagates a lot of the incorrect criticism about FHA
> loans. FHA purchases actually have substantially more red tape to
> clear than other mortgages, more documentation requirements on personal
> finances, and higher credit scores requirements.]]> Mon, 21 Sep 2009 12:00:16 -0400
consider that and the fact that they are doing 95%+ (going to 125% ?) ltv loans, they bumped their 'max' loan size up by nearly 3x to ~$720k, and you have yourself a subprime shop at the expense of the American Taxpayer.


On Sep 21 11:45 AM KingGeithner wrote:

> This article propagates a lot of the incorrect criticism about FHA
> loans. FHA purchases actually have substantially more red tape to
> clear than other mortgages, more documentation requirements on personal
> finances, and higher credit scores requirements.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162481-is-the-fha-a-bailout-waiting-to-happen?source=feed#comment-684961 684961
FHA is NOT doing higher quality -- FHA is the administrations last gasp 'solution' to falling home prices - they are taking most ANY borrower.... their old, conservative lending guidelines are LONG gone...

On Sep 21 11:36 AM Kansas City Shuffle wrote:

> Don't get me wrong, I love quoting the cheesy Green Street Hooligans/West
> Ham song as much as the next guy (Roger Knights)...but this article
> has nothing to it. There is some good data available on this and
> there is nothing data-wise in this article. Although FHA has jumped
> from nothing to a huge part of the market, in complete antithesis
> to your argument, the credit scores of their borrowers are actually
> vastly improving because you are getting the higher quality that
> usually could get private insurance. So saying they are screwed based
> on large volume ignores the quality of the volume.]]> Mon, 21 Sep 2009 11:55:33 -0400
FHA is NOT doing higher quality -- FHA is the administrations last gasp 'solution' to falling home prices - they are taking most ANY borrower.... their old, conservative lending guidelines are LONG gone...

On Sep 21 11:36 AM Kansas City Shuffle wrote:

> Don't get me wrong, I love quoting the cheesy Green Street Hooligans/West
> Ham song as much as the next guy (Roger Knights)...but this article
> has nothing to it. There is some good data available on this and
> there is nothing data-wise in this article. Although FHA has jumped
> from nothing to a huge part of the market, in complete antithesis
> to your argument, the credit scores of their borrowers are actually
> vastly improving because you are getting the higher quality that
> usually could get private insurance. So saying they are screwed based
> on large volume ignores the quality of the volume.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162481-is-the-fha-a-bailout-waiting-to-happen?source=feed#comment-684922 684922
Delinquency Status #Loans Percent Loan Amount
30 days Delinq Loans 41 8.48 20,473,322
60 days Delinq Loans 26 5.23 12,626,825
90+ days Delinq Loans 81 17.41 42,033,082

reminder, this is 1yr later. 30% delinquent. This is typical. losses will be paid entirely by the taxpayer.]]> Mon, 21 Sep 2009 11:24:15 -0400
Delinquency Status #Loans Percent Loan Amount
30 days Delinq Loans 41 8.48 20,473,322
60 days Delinq Loans 26 5.23 12,626,825
90+ days Delinq Loans 81 17.41 42,033,082

reminder, this is 1yr later. 30% delinquent. This is typical. losses will be paid entirely by the taxpayer.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162021-20-companies-most-likely-to-go-bankrupt-in-next-year?source=feed#comment-682340 682340
I suppose 124 million shares sold short has the same relevance whether the float is 125million or 125 billion.... ok.

you should not be managing anyone's money - not even your own.


On Sep 18 08:38 AM R A F wrote:

> jswede - I would suggest you pay close close attention to all data
> and commentary released in November and February with regard to your
> debt service concerns mentioned above. This topic will surely be
> thoroughly addressed at that time, both in the formal comments as
> well as the Q & A that will follow. As far as your thoughts
> about the exceptionally high level of short interest are concerned
> - please keep your eye on the ball, which is the absolute number
> - 124.7 million shares - not some absolute version of percentages,
> float, etc. The pain to holders of short positions is solely related
> to the number of shares they must cover in a rising market - not
> some "hypothetical" number such as # of days to cover, etc. Have
> a good day, jswede, and keep trying to cover your position on pullbacks,
> if you get a chance.]]> Fri, 18 Sep 2009 09:35:39 -0400
I suppose 124 million shares sold short has the same relevance whether the float is 125million or 125 billion.... ok.

you should not be managing anyone's money - not even your own.


On Sep 18 08:38 AM R A F wrote:

> jswede - I would suggest you pay close close attention to all data
> and commentary released in November and February with regard to your
> debt service concerns mentioned above. This topic will surely be
> thoroughly addressed at that time, both in the formal comments as
> well as the Q & A that will follow. As far as your thoughts
> about the exceptionally high level of short interest are concerned
> - please keep your eye on the ball, which is the absolute number
> - 124.7 million shares - not some absolute version of percentages,
> float, etc. The pain to holders of short positions is solely related
> to the number of shares they must cover in a rising market - not
> some "hypothetical" number such as # of days to cover, etc. Have
> a good day, jswede, and keep trying to cover your position on pullbacks,
> if you get a chance.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162021-20-companies-most-likely-to-go-bankrupt-in-next-year?source=feed#comment-681973 681973
Short interest is at 124mil shares - excluding last month's 119mil, that's the LOWEST it's been sine March '08. It's 64% lower than just 2 months ago (194mil on 6/30). It was at 270mil shares in Jan, and averaged 275mil all of last fall.

3.3% of the the SIRI float is sold short. (124mil out of 3.77bil float) By comparison to any other media stock out there, that's TINY. For comparison, Charter Comm is at 5.6%, Liberty is at 4.8% and DTV is over 19%.

SIRI Short Interest Ratio (shares short / volume) is also at one of the lowest levels all year, at 1.48x -- it was 7.36x in June and over 11x in January.

More 'hope' and half-truths on your part, RAF. Actually no, that was a flat out lie.

Why don't you tell me RAF, year by year, how they will be able to pay interest of $400mil/yr for the next 3 years (plus $400mil in principal in '11, and a $246mil loan in '12), then another $2.2bil in interest and principal in '13? That's over $4 billion.

They need to make about a BILLION per year for the next 4yrs just to break even. Lay it out for me smart guy - how are they going to do that?


On Sep 17 11:53 PM R A F wrote:

> With short interest still running extremely high - 124,769,789
> shares as of 8/31 - it's not surprising we are seeing some of the
> comments above. The continuing strength of SIRI has done major damage
> to these shorts and threatens to do substantially more in coming
> weeks and months.]]> Fri, 18 Sep 2009 00:28:00 -0400
Short interest is at 124mil shares - excluding last month's 119mil, that's the LOWEST it's been sine March '08. It's 64% lower than just 2 months ago (194mil on 6/30). It was at 270mil shares in Jan, and averaged 275mil all of last fall.

3.3% of the the SIRI float is sold short. (124mil out of 3.77bil float) By comparison to any other media stock out there, that's TINY. For comparison, Charter Comm is at 5.6%, Liberty is at 4.8% and DTV is over 19%.

SIRI Short Interest Ratio (shares short / volume) is also at one of the lowest levels all year, at 1.48x -- it was 7.36x in June and over 11x in January.

More 'hope' and half-truths on your part, RAF. Actually no, that was a flat out lie.

Why don't you tell me RAF, year by year, how they will be able to pay interest of $400mil/yr for the next 3 years (plus $400mil in principal in '11, and a $246mil loan in '12), then another $2.2bil in interest and principal in '13? That's over $4 billion.

They need to make about a BILLION per year for the next 4yrs just to break even. Lay it out for me smart guy - how are they going to do that?


On Sep 17 11:53 PM R A F wrote:

> With short interest still running extremely high - 124,769,789
> shares as of 8/31 - it's not surprising we are seeing some of the
> comments above. The continuing strength of SIRI has done major damage
> to these shorts and threatens to do substantially more in coming
> weeks and months.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162021-20-companies-most-likely-to-go-bankrupt-in-next-year?source=feed#comment-681875 681875
I don't care if they have $100billion in annual revenue, it's their net income that matters. and it's negative.

If I pay $3k/mo in mortgage for a rental property and rent it out for $2800/mo, by your logic I should be bragging about the $2800 I'm pulling in and just forget that it's actually a loss overall?

The 'synergies' you speak of are in the numbers already -- they are not separate so you can't count them again. (nevermind that to achieve those 'synergies' the company went so deep into debt that they'll never get out.... 'synergies'... sounds really good though, huh? )

On Sep 17 09:40 PM connorport wrote:

> You left
> out one thing. The $2.7 billion in annual revenue. Also the $500
> million in so far created synergies of the combined two companies.
> But who counts that?]]> Thu, 17 Sep 2009 22:02:08 -0400
I don't care if they have $100billion in annual revenue, it's their net income that matters. and it's negative.

If I pay $3k/mo in mortgage for a rental property and rent it out for $2800/mo, by your logic I should be bragging about the $2800 I'm pulling in and just forget that it's actually a loss overall?

The 'synergies' you speak of are in the numbers already -- they are not separate so you can't count them again. (nevermind that to achieve those 'synergies' the company went so deep into debt that they'll never get out.... 'synergies'... sounds really good though, huh? )

On Sep 17 09:40 PM connorport wrote:

> You left
> out one thing. The $2.7 billion in annual revenue. Also the $500
> million in so far created synergies of the combined two companies.
> But who counts that?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162021-20-companies-most-likely-to-go-bankrupt-in-next-year?source=feed#comment-681862 681862
Since AIV is right now losing money each quarter, they will not be able to keep up debt service, which will mean they will have to sell assets at a loss. True the lender eats the loss on each project/property, but this operation depends on the (formerly) positive cashflows from those properties. With negative cashflow, then losing the properties, the remaining cash on the balance sheet (which isn't much) withers and the company runs out of money.

If 85% of your assets are real estate / property / plants, and any hope of going cashflow positive again is reliant on those assets performing, deflation will kill you. I don't know the company, but after spending 3 minutes with AIV's balance sheet and income statement and this seems entirely plausible.


On Sep 17 06:31 PM zorro6204 wrote:

> What nonsense! Obviously this was based on some kind of stupid ratio
> analysis, because if you know anything at all about AIV's debt, then
> you would realize they are probably the LEAST likely company to go
> bankrupt, at least of those corporations that have any debt at all.
> In fact, given that virtually all of their debt is nonrecourse tied
> to projects, it's difficult to see how it's even possible!]]> Thu, 17 Sep 2009 21:48:22 -0400
Since AIV is right now losing money each quarter, they will not be able to keep up debt service, which will mean they will have to sell assets at a loss. True the lender eats the loss on each project/property, but this operation depends on the (formerly) positive cashflows from those properties. With negative cashflow, then losing the properties, the remaining cash on the balance sheet (which isn't much) withers and the company runs out of money.

If 85% of your assets are real estate / property / plants, and any hope of going cashflow positive again is reliant on those assets performing, deflation will kill you. I don't know the company, but after spending 3 minutes with AIV's balance sheet and income statement and this seems entirely plausible.


On Sep 17 06:31 PM zorro6204 wrote:

> What nonsense! Obviously this was based on some kind of stupid ratio
> analysis, because if you know anything at all about AIV's debt, then
> you would realize they are probably the LEAST likely company to go
> bankrupt, at least of those corporations that have any debt at all.
> In fact, given that virtually all of their debt is nonrecourse tied
> to projects, it's difficult to see how it's even possible!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162021-20-companies-most-likely-to-go-bankrupt-in-next-year?source=feed#comment-681433 681433
I'd rather look at the real data, the real financial statements - in this case you have a dead company walking. No way around it - dead and buried in debt (and 'debt service', something you guys think doesn't exist). All you have is hope to hang onto with this one. 'Hope' that they can turn around the subscriber trend and add another 30 million subscribers, or 150% growth, by 2012.... lol. that's absurd, but believe it if you wish.

I'm not the same poster as doom -- check my history - I've been around much longer, and I was in fact a SIRI bull til early 2008. shocking you would come up with a conspiracy theory... shocking.

On Sep 17 05:24 PM R A F wrote:

> The collective judgment of the market - as seen in the impressive
> recovery from the February lows - is that Sirius XM's business
> plan and potential going forward will more than cover the concerns
> noted by jswede in comments above. As I mentioned a few days ago
> - we now have two posters on these pages who write virtually the
> same, in terms of style and agenda, as our old friend SIRI-Doom.
> Could we be seeing one person writing under multiple ID's?]]> Thu, 17 Sep 2009 18:20:33 -0400
I'd rather look at the real data, the real financial statements - in this case you have a dead company walking. No way around it - dead and buried in debt (and 'debt service', something you guys think doesn't exist). All you have is hope to hang onto with this one. 'Hope' that they can turn around the subscriber trend and add another 30 million subscribers, or 150% growth, by 2012.... lol. that's absurd, but believe it if you wish.

I'm not the same poster as doom -- check my history - I've been around much longer, and I was in fact a SIRI bull til early 2008. shocking you would come up with a conspiracy theory... shocking.

On Sep 17 05:24 PM R A F wrote:

> The collective judgment of the market - as seen in the impressive
> recovery from the February lows - is that Sirius XM's business
> plan and potential going forward will more than cover the concerns
> noted by jswede in comments above. As I mentioned a few days ago
> - we now have two posters on these pages who write virtually the
> same, in terms of style and agenda, as our old friend SIRI-Doom.
> Could we be seeing one person writing under multiple ID's?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162021-20-companies-most-likely-to-go-bankrupt-in-next-year?source=feed#comment-681395 681395
$7.5bil in assets includes $2bil in licenses, $650mil in "intangibles" and $1.8bil in "goodwill". That's $4.5bil of made-up value just to keep the balance sheet 'balanced'.

The $3.2bil in satellites are specialized so they would be worth very little as well -- even DTV can't use them.

Stockholders' equity is at $143mil.... take away just the 'goodwill' and you're in a hole you'll never get out of -- now add in the other worthless assets and tell me where you're at.

Point is they are not making money and the interest is far outpacing the cashflow -- and in the eventual restructuring the common is worth $0.00... the debt may be worth 50-75 cents on the dollar.]]> Thu, 17 Sep 2009 18:07:17 -0400
$7.5bil in assets includes $2bil in licenses, $650mil in "intangibles" and $1.8bil in "goodwill". That's $4.5bil of made-up value just to keep the balance sheet 'balanced'.

The $3.2bil in satellites are specialized so they would be worth very little as well -- even DTV can't use them.

Stockholders' equity is at $143mil.... take away just the 'goodwill' and you're in a hole you'll never get out of -- now add in the other worthless assets and tell me where you're at.

Point is they are not making money and the interest is far outpacing the cashflow -- and in the eventual restructuring the common is worth $0.00... the debt may be worth 50-75 cents on the dollar.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162021-20-companies-most-likely-to-go-bankrupt-in-next-year?source=feed#comment-681319 681319
they're paying $400mil/yr in interest -- that ALONE will sink them. not to mention the nearly $4 bil in principal to pay back.

you guys talk about how they are nearly making money EXCLUDING interest.... guess what? that won't save you from bankruptcy. including interest they are losing money hand over fist and it's getting worse every quarter as they issue more debt to buy more time.... (only reason they want more time is for management to pay themselves their ridiculous salaries)

the debt holders own this company - it's just a matter of time... the common is worthless.

one of you SIRI bulls show me - in numbers - how they will come out of this please.]]> Thu, 17 Sep 2009 16:41:19 -0400
they're paying $400mil/yr in interest -- that ALONE will sink them. not to mention the nearly $4 bil in principal to pay back.

you guys talk about how they are nearly making money EXCLUDING interest.... guess what? that won't save you from bankruptcy. including interest they are losing money hand over fist and it's getting worse every quarter as they issue more debt to buy more time.... (only reason they want more time is for management to pay themselves their ridiculous salaries)

the debt holders own this company - it's just a matter of time... the common is worthless.

one of you SIRI bulls show me - in numbers - how they will come out of this please.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161711-is-bond-market-betting-rising-oil-prices-will-check-inflation?source=feed#comment-679715 679715

On Sep 16 10:05 AM Ferdinand E. Banks wrote:

> Interesting and useful analysis except for one point: this Swedish
> model thing.
>
> I read a Swedish newspaper every morning, and I have never read anything
> about a Swedish model, In fact those ignoramuses who handle the economics
> in the Swedish government and Central Bank proabably can't spell
> model.
>
> If you want a model, go to Switzerland. They know how to take care
> of business. They don't belong to the (parisitic) EU, don't send
> soldiers to Eye-rak or Afghanistan, and they have at least a modest
> interest in keeping their large cities in a civilized state, even
> though there are many immigrants in the country.
>
> "Swedish Model". What will it be next? .]]> Wed, 16 Sep 2009 16:26:33 -0400

On Sep 16 10:05 AM Ferdinand E. Banks wrote:

> Interesting and useful analysis except for one point: this Swedish
> model thing.
>
> I read a Swedish newspaper every morning, and I have never read anything
> about a Swedish model, In fact those ignoramuses who handle the economics
> in the Swedish government and Central Bank proabably can't spell
> model.
>
> If you want a model, go to Switzerland. They know how to take care
> of business. They don't belong to the (parisitic) EU, don't send
> soldiers to Eye-rak or Afghanistan, and they have at least a modest
> interest in keeping their large cities in a civilized state, even
> though there are many immigrants in the country.
>
> "Swedish Model". What will it be next? .]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161501-sirius-xm-continues-to-deliver-on-q1-promise-of-expanded-programming-lineup?source=feed#comment-678141 678141 Tue, 15 Sep 2009 16:57:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/159939-is-sirius-on-the-road-to-profits?source=feed#comment-663367 663367 Sat, 05 Sep 2009 16:47:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/159261-what-are-sirius-xm-shares-really-worth?source=feed#comment-660402 660402
too bad when you add in the "I" (running at ~$400mil/yr) you're way in the red.

this company has never made money. ever. $3.8bil in debt is far too much. the common stock is done.]]> Thu, 03 Sep 2009 11:56:58 -0400
too bad when you add in the "I" (running at ~$400mil/yr) you're way in the red.

this company has never made money. ever. $3.8bil in debt is far too much. the common stock is done.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159061-sirius-xm-a-more-than-viable-stock?source=feed#comment-655211 655211 Mon, 31 Aug 2009 15:22:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/159061-sirius-xm-a-more-than-viable-stock?source=feed#comment-655143 655143
seriously next to criminal that the debt maturities and debt service are dismissed like this... that people follow this guy's advice without checking the balance sheet is sad.

what Sat Waves won't tell you: obligations due BEFORE 2013:

$263mil in 2009 (convert)
$100mil in 2010 (revolver)
$552mil in 2011 (loan/bond)
$496mil in 2012 (term loan)

and debt isn't free: currently SIRI has $400mil+ per year in debt service.... to Sat Waves it doesn't exist.

by my count that's about $2.5bil in obligations to meet before 2013. no big deal, right Sat Waves?

(then in 2013 there's $1.8 bil due plus interest...)

remind me again how much money SIRI has made / is making? should be no problem to meet these obligations, right?

even if SIRI somehow lives on, there's no way the common stock gets out of this alive. it's done.]]> Mon, 31 Aug 2009 14:38:45 -0400
seriously next to criminal that the debt maturities and debt service are dismissed like this... that people follow this guy's advice without checking the balance sheet is sad.

what Sat Waves won't tell you: obligations due BEFORE 2013:

$263mil in 2009 (convert)
$100mil in 2010 (revolver)
$552mil in 2011 (loan/bond)
$496mil in 2012 (term loan)

and debt isn't free: currently SIRI has $400mil+ per year in debt service.... to Sat Waves it doesn't exist.

by my count that's about $2.5bil in obligations to meet before 2013. no big deal, right Sat Waves?

(then in 2013 there's $1.8 bil due plus interest...)

remind me again how much money SIRI has made / is making? should be no problem to meet these obligations, right?

even if SIRI somehow lives on, there's no way the common stock gets out of this alive. it's done.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/31584?source=feed#comment-654963 654963 Mon, 31 Aug 2009 12:54:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/157358-analysts-proffer-stealth-upgrades-to-sirius-xm-radio-stock?source=feed#comment-639671 639671 SIRI) debt rating. "

funny Brandon doesn't mention that the very same day Moody's DOWNGRADED the rating from Caa1 to Caa2....

shocking really - I mean Brandon is always so fair and balanced, not to mention knowledgable about debt...]]> Fri, 21 Aug 2009 10:28:27 -0400 SIRI) debt rating. "

funny Brandon doesn't mention that the very same day Moody's DOWNGRADED the rating from Caa1 to Caa2....

shocking really - I mean Brandon is always so fair and balanced, not to mention knowledgable about debt...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156326-the-media-has-difficulty-realizing-the-liberty-deal-is-not-bad-for-sirius?source=feed#comment-633337 633337
the 9.75%coupon bonds were issued at a 10.375% YIELD
the 11.25%coupon bonds were issued at a 12.9% YIELD

the interest rate is not the cost of the funds, it is the interest on the PAR amount borrowed.

the 11.25% coupon bonds were issued at 95% of par, meaning SIRI raised $500mil, but are paying 11.25% interest per year on $525mil, and have to pay back $525mil at maturity. that's a 12.9% yield, or 'total cost on money borrowed'.

BOTH deals came EXACTLY where the market expected them to.

Sat Waves is doing no readers any favors by writing, and giving advice, on matters that they do not fully understand.]]> Mon, 17 Aug 2009 13:32:58 -0400
the 9.75%coupon bonds were issued at a 10.375% YIELD
the 11.25%coupon bonds were issued at a 12.9% YIELD

the interest rate is not the cost of the funds, it is the interest on the PAR amount borrowed.

the 11.25% coupon bonds were issued at 95% of par, meaning SIRI raised $500mil, but are paying 11.25% interest per year on $525mil, and have to pay back $525mil at maturity. that's a 12.9% yield, or 'total cost on money borrowed'.

BOTH deals came EXACTLY where the market expected them to.

Sat Waves is doing no readers any favors by writing, and giving advice, on matters that they do not fully understand.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156428-sirius-xm-and-mainstream-media-critiques?source=feed#comment-633335 633335
the 9.75%coupon bonds were issued at a 10.375% YIELD
the 11.25%coupon bonds were issued at a 12.9% YIELD

the interest rate is not the cost of the funds, it is the interest on the PAR amount borrowed.

the 11.25% coupon bonds were issued at 95% of par, meaning SIRI raised $500mil, but are paying 11.25% interest per year on $525mil, and have to pay back $525mil at maturity. that's a 12.9% yield, or 'total cost on money borrowed'.

BOTH deals came EXACTLY where the market expected them to.

Sat Waves is doing no readers any favors by writing, and giving advice, on matters that they do not fully understand.]]> Mon, 17 Aug 2009 13:31:31 -0400
the 9.75%coupon bonds were issued at a 10.375% YIELD
the 11.25%coupon bonds were issued at a 12.9% YIELD

the interest rate is not the cost of the funds, it is the interest on the PAR amount borrowed.

the 11.25% coupon bonds were issued at 95% of par, meaning SIRI raised $500mil, but are paying 11.25% interest per year on $525mil, and have to pay back $525mil at maturity. that's a 12.9% yield, or 'total cost on money borrowed'.

BOTH deals came EXACTLY where the market expected them to.

Sat Waves is doing no readers any favors by writing, and giving advice, on matters that they do not fully understand.]]>