jswede

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156 Comments

    • Mon Sep 15th 16:29 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Sirius XM Headed the Way of Old Radio?
      I'm not saying "taking over", Relmor --- just saying that it's competition... however little bit it takes into Siri revenues, Siri cannot afford it...
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    • Mon Sep 15th 16:28 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Sirius XM Headed the Way of Old Radio?
      my point about internet radio is not specific to any one company - Pandora is just an example - if they go away, there will be more and more

      the point is that as the internet radio platform matures, there's no stopping anyone to step in and use the exact same subscription/content platform that SiriXM uses, only over internet radio. virtually no startup costs, no debt to deal with, and the hardware will be cheap.... with my laptop/iPhone, and soon standard in cars, I already have the "player"...
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 15th 15:41 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Sirius XM Headed the Way of Old Radio?
      "Hence proof of this Pantora, and the exact reason they gave for having to shut their doors. "

      >> just turned on Pandora on my iPhone. works just fine.
      View article »
    • Sat Sep 13th 20:13 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Sirius XM Should Handle Supply and Demand
      good points, as always, cos. they are not the same animal, but I point to the attempt to raise capital as a barometer of the credit market... CCC deals were not even double digits 18 mos ago.... now they can't be placed at 18%
      View article »
    • Sat Sep 13th 20:08 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Sirius XM Should Handle Supply and Demand
      Relmor sez.....***** "Like I said before, to finance the merger Mel got EXACTLY the financing he wanted." *****

      www.bloomberg.com/apps...

      excerpts from the story:

      Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Sirius XM Radio Inc. struck an ``ugly'' debt deal to close the merger of the only two U.S. satellite radio operators, Chief Executive Officer Mel Karmazin said....

      ....``I hated it,'' the 64-year-old CEO said in an interview yesterday in New York. ``It was unfortunate, but we did it.''....

      ....Karmazin didn't seek refinancing until he was sure U.S. regulators would approve the takeover.

      ``If the merger didn't happen, we didn't want to do anything in the market,'' Karmazin said.....

      ....``The market on Monday was very ugly,'' Karmazin said. ``The book was not looking good.'' He took the deal.....



      and the market is worse, much worse, and getting worse, since then...
      View article »
    • Sat Sep 13th 17:52 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Sirius XM Should Handle Supply and Demand
      "And like I said, they still almost pulled it off. "

      >>> selling $238mil out of $980mil is "almost pulling it off"??????
      View article »
    • Sat Sep 13th 17:49 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Sirius XM Should Handle Supply and Demand
      "And thanks for acknowledging your lie, that they are on credit watch, for a change, up or down, ok, like they would raise it then lower it a month later. You are so easy, please give me more lies. "

      very very telling that you hang your rebuttal on a "positive watch" or "neg watch" of their credit rating that is on rung 17 of a possible 20 before default... as I've mentioned before, the rating agencies' opinions are tantamount to nothing in the world of credit these days...

      you said before "it's not like they've defaulted before.... well they are 3 rungs from that dreaded "D" rating...

      killerkaul, the "TRIALIANS" relmor types I hope answers your question.......

      it's clear, to me, that relmor "knows" a lot if tidbits about the market... things he's learned over the course of time reading about finance... but it should be clear with anyone with any type of education in this area, that he's lacks fundamentals. the scatterbrain responses and swiftly moving the argument to areas he has anecdotes about should tell you that.

      I bet that his approach may well have made him money in his career (and kudos for many great points in the last months), but in this case he's grasping at straws, refusing to acknowledge the aforementioned 400lb gorilla...

      Said differently, this company is hitting a wall - the credit markets - and he has no idea.
      View article »
    • Sat Sep 13th 15:22 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Sirius XM Should Handle Supply and Demand
      correct: should say "North America has written down $260bil"... of course.
      View article »
    • Sat Sep 13th 15:14 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Sirius XM Should Handle Supply and Demand
      one more:

      "Geez , even a dog like Lehman Brothers will their toxic balance sheet ALMOST found a buyer from the Koreans. Ill bet those same Koreans would much rather throw money at Sirius than Lehman Brothers lol. "

      >>>> you'll see tomorrow when the terms come up for the Lehman deal -- pretend your Siri stock is LEH stock and see if you like the results. KDB wasn't trying to save any Lehman shareholders.. "lol". and they'll get no mercy tomorrow either.

      Further, KDB is trying to make a global presence in banking, their business. Not looking for stock investments.
      View article »
    • Sat Sep 13th 15:06 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Sirius XM Should Handle Supply and Demand
      I'll tackle a few:

      "1. "SiriXM has never made money; and projections are for ~$2bil+ next year and another loss of around $300mil EBITDA".....
      Thats a lie. The real figure is next year POSITIVE 300 million. This is such a low ball figure, its actually(technically) almost a lie. Its not only an understated amount, its bare bones. "

      >>> you are right Relmor - I meant for -$300mil for the year ending 2008 (that would be reported early next year). Of course, none of their figures for EBITDA take into account new debt service costs, which are ~$140mil on the new debt from July ALONE.


      "2."CCU is Caa1 / CCC+ rated
      * SIRI is Caa1(negative watch) / CCC rated
      * both are/were/will be trying to raise $1bil in this market"
      They were upgraded to this level, with a watch for an INCREASE. "

      >>>> according to bloomberg, they are still on NEG watch as of 7/23/08. That looks to be not up to date, as I checked other sources and they, in fact, are Caa1 without "watch". No "positive watch", either though, just straight Caa1.


      ""* SiriXM has Assets of $10.5bil and Liabilities of $6bil, for $4.5bil in shareholders equity."....
      Thats accurate. Goodwill? No sir, that was barebone estimating the value of XM. It really has more value combined with Sirius than solo(better management, better access to capital, synergies to come(do you really think the NFL, Howard, etc..."

      >>>> what you wrote above is pretty much the definition of goodwill. Point is that bond investors want hard assets to lay claim on.


      " How many companies going to borrow 1 billion dollars actually have 300 million in cash on hand? Id bet it will be more like 400 million by March. "

      >>> you can take any little piece of the balance sheet and pull it out to say whatever you want -- you know you have to look at the entire picture. you say they have "$300mil in cash"? ok, I'll point you to the $585mil in accounts payable. poof - cash gone.


      "AMD is LOSING MONEY, and still got a 300 million dollar loan. "

      >>> ok, I'll use your logic: AMD has $1.4bil in cash in its balance sheet.
      Further, they used to make money, up until 06, and whomever lent them the money likely sees a quick fix with a relatively small $300mil loan.


      and finally.... re-read the Clear Channel story I posted above. They tried to place close to $1bil at freaking 18%.... they got LESS that 1/4 of that. There IS NO MONEY. The fact that a "tiny" $1bil can't be placed at 18%+ is enough for me to see SiriXM won't be able to do traditional financing -- if they could get it, 18% would kill them anyway.

      The US banks and investors are not in a loaning mood. and Europe? North America has, so far, written down $260mil from bad loans. you think the money's coming from Europe? Europe wrote down $230bil. Relatively speaking they may be in worse shape.
      View article »
    • Sat Sep 13th 09:50 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Sirius XM Should Handle Supply and Demand
      cos, my comment was in response to the above comment that raising $1bil would be "easy", even for SiriXM - since $1bil is a "small amount".

      CCU and SiriXM are not identical, and it's more of a coincidence they are both broadcasters - I showed the story b/c I thought it relevant and timely.

      All companies and credits are different, but consider the similarities:

      * CCU is Caa1 / CCC+ rated
      * SIRI is Caa1(negative watch) / CCC rated
      * both are/were/will be trying to raise $1bil in this market

      Some differences:

      * CCU is/has been making money for a long time; averaging about $6bil+ in revenue and $2bil+ in EBITDA for the last 5 years.
      * CCU has Assets of of $18bil and Liabilities of $9bil for a total shareholders equity of ~$9bil

      * SiriXM has never made money; and projections are for ~$2bil+ next year and another loss of around $300mil EBITDA
      * SiriXM has Assets of $10.5bil and Liabilities of $6bil, for $4.5bil in shareholders equity.
      (*********IMPORTANT footnote: $5bil of those assets are "goodwill"..... so without some rosy estimates of value of the brand etc by Mel, SiriXM has negative shareholders equity - just like both Siri and XM were before the merger. Institutional bond investors know that their final recourse is claims on assets - they not fooled by goodwill -- they will give that a sizeable haircut....)

      So, again, I am trying to let some of you equity guys know that when you say "Mel has already worked out the financing" and "it won't be a problem" and "that's why the credit markets exist!".... you are both uninformed and dead wrong.

      I was on the fence before, but I'll now predict that they will not - no way no how - get the financing, even at 18%+.

      I think this company will survive though, by way of a capital infusion which gives away virtually all upside to the new investors. Common shareholders left with shares worth virtually nothing.
      View article »
    • Fri Sep 12th 21:51 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Sirius XM Should Handle Supply and Demand
      "P.S. in the big picture of financing, asking for a billion is not that much. in a credit market of this size."

      ....actually, it IS:

      Wall Street Journal 9/12:

      Clear Channel Bonds Attract Few Buyers
      By CYNTHIA KOONS
      September 12, 2008; Page C2
      Underwriters sold $228 million of Clear Channel Communications Inc.'s bonds, ******less than a quarter of the amount the banks hoped to offload when they brought the deal to the market last week.******

      The debt sold at 70 cents on the dollar, a steep discount for a bond sale even in this dismal environment for risky credit. The bonds were trading below that price, at around 68 cents on the dollar, after the sale, showing just how little appetite there is for risky bonds and leveraged-buyout debt more than one year into the credit crisis.

      Banks still are holding about $48 billion of LBO debt, according to Standard & Poor's Leveraged Commentary & Data unit. That backlog, down from around $325 billion at the height of the credit crunch, has been a headache for underwriters because much of that debt is for the LBOs that were done during the boom of 2006 and early 2007.

      The Clear Channel bonds, which converted from a bridge loan used to fund the radio company's $17.9 billion leveraged buyout, come with a coupon of 10.75%. ******The low selling price means the debt is yielding 18%.****** It also means, excluding fee income from the deal, a loss of around $68.4 million for the group of banks underwriting it.
      View article »
    • Thu Sep 11th 15:43 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Sirius XM Dips Beneath $1: Will the Street Give It Any More Time?
      anyway.... I believe GS owns about $3mil worth of SiriXM.... to put Relmor's conspiracy theory into perspective:

      Each year, GS's ~250-300 Managing Directors make $3-5mil in bonus each. This "conspiracy" is not even a topic of conversation.
      View article »
    • Thu Sep 11th 15:10 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Sirius XM Dips Beneath $1: Will the Street Give It Any More Time?
      relmor - how many shares does GS own?
      View article »
    • Thu Sep 11th 10:55 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Sirius XM Dips Beneath $1: Will the Street Give It Any More Time?
      if they traded the debt for stock (what cash?) the shares you own would be worth something on the order of 1/1000 of what they are now.
      View article »
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