jswede

20 Companies Most Likely to Go Bankrupt in Next Year

wow RAF - that's a new one: the number of shares sold short vs shares available to cover with means nothing.... ok.

I suppose 124 million shares sold short has the same relevance whether the float is 125million or 125 billion.... ok.

you should not be managing anyone's money - not even your own.


On Sep 18 08:38 AM R A F wrote:

> jswede - I would suggest you pay close close attention to all data
> and commentary released in November and February with regard to your
> debt service concerns mentioned above. This topic will surely be
> thoroughly addressed at that time, both in the formal comments as
> well as the Q & A that will follow. As far as your thoughts
> about the exceptionally high level of short interest are concerned
> - please keep your eye on the ball, which is the absolute number
> - 124.7 million shares - not some absolute version of percentages,
> float, etc. The pain to holders of short positions is solely related
> to the number of shares they must cover in a rising market - not
> some "hypothetical" number such as # of days to cover, etc. Have
> a good day, jswede, and keep trying to cover your position on pullbacks,
> if you get a chance.

20 Companies Most Likely to Go Bankrupt in Next Year

is that right? "extremely high"? Your expert opinion?

Short interest is at 124mil shares - excluding last month's 119mil, that's the LOWEST it's been sine March '08. It's 64% lower than just 2 months ago (194mil on 6/30). It was at 270mil shares in Jan, and averaged 275mil all of last fall.

3.3% of the the SIRI float is sold short. (124mil out of 3.77bil float) By comparison to any other media stock out there, that's TINY. For comparison, Charter Comm is at 5.6%, Liberty is at 4.8% and DTV is over 19%.

SIRI Short Interest Ratio (shares short / volume) is also at one of the lowest levels all year, at 1.48x -- it was 7.36x in June and over 11x in January.

More 'hope' and half-truths on your part, RAF. Actually no, that was a flat out lie.

Why don't you tell me RAF, year by year, how they will be able to pay interest of $400mil/yr for the next 3 years (plus $400mil in principal in '11, and a $246mil loan in '12), then another $2.2bil in interest and principal in '13? That's over $4 billion.

They need to make about a BILLION per year for the next 4yrs just to break even. Lay it out for me smart guy - how are they going to do that?


On Sep 17 11:53 PM R A F wrote:

> With short interest still running extremely high - 124,769,789
> shares as of 8/31 - it's not surprising we are seeing some of the
> comments above. The continuing strength of SIRI has done major damage
> to these shorts and threatens to do substantially more in coming
> weeks and months.

20 Companies Most Likely to Go Bankrupt in Next Year

I counted that. The revenues are part of the income statement.

I don't care if they have $100billion in annual revenue, it's their net income that matters. and it's negative.

If I pay $3k/mo in mortgage for a rental property and rent it out for $2800/mo, by your logic I should be bragging about the $2800 I'm pulling in and just forget that it's actually a loss overall?

The 'synergies' you speak of are in the numbers already -- they are not separate so you can't count them again. (nevermind that to achieve those 'synergies' the company went so deep into debt that they'll never get out.... 'synergies'... sounds really good though, huh? )

On Sep 17 09:40 PM connorport wrote:

> You left
> out one thing. The $2.7 billion in annual revenue. Also the $500
> million in so far created synergies of the combined two companies.
> But who counts that?

20 Companies Most Likely to Go Bankrupt in Next Year

it's called deflation. the assets deflate and the debt stays the same.

Since AIV is right now losing money each quarter, they will not be able to keep up debt service, which will mean they will have to sell assets at a loss. True the lender eats the loss on each project/property, but this operation depends on the (formerly) positive cashflows from those properties. With negative cashflow, then losing the properties, the remaining cash on the balance sheet (which isn't much) withers and the company runs out of money.

If 85% of your assets are real estate / property / plants, and any hope of going cashflow positive again is reliant on those assets performing, deflation will kill you. I don't know the company, but after spending 3 minutes with AIV's balance sheet and income statement and this seems entirely plausible.


On Sep 17 06:31 PM zorro6204 wrote:

> What nonsense! Obviously this was based on some kind of stupid ratio
> analysis, because if you know anything at all about AIV's debt, then
> you would realize they are probably the LEAST likely company to go
> bankrupt, at least of those corporations that have any debt at all.
> In fact, given that virtually all of their debt is nonrecourse tied
> to projects, it's difficult to see how it's even possible!

20 Companies Most Likely to Go Bankrupt in Next Year

'collective judgement of the market'..!??!?! were you born yesterday? this is the same market that was valued ~35% less 6mos ago? when was it correct - 6mos ago or today? you are apparently saying today? any reason other than that it suits your long position?

I'd rather look at the real data, the real financial statements - in this case you have a dead company walking. No way around it - dead and buried in debt (and 'debt service', something you guys think doesn't exist). All you have is hope to hang onto with this one. 'Hope' that they can turn around the subscriber trend and add another 30 million subscribers, or 150% growth, by 2012.... lol. that's absurd, but believe it if you wish.

I'm not the same poster as doom -- check my history - I've been around much longer, and I was in fact a SIRI bull til early 2008. shocking you would come up with a conspiracy theory... shocking.

On Sep 17 05:24 PM R A F wrote:

> The collective judgment of the market - as seen in the impressive
> recovery from the February lows - is that Sirius XM's business
> plan and potential going forward will more than cover the concerns
> noted by jswede in comments above. As I mentioned a few days ago
> - we now have two posters on these pages who write virtually the
> same, in terms of style and agenda, as our old friend SIRI-Doom.
> Could we be seeing one person writing under multiple ID's?

20 Companies Most Likely to Go Bankrupt in Next Year

yea - I've done the research.

$7.5bil in assets includes $2bil in licenses, $650mil in "intangibles" and $1.8bil in "goodwill". That's $4.5bil of made-up value just to keep the balance sheet 'balanced'.

The $3.2bil in satellites are specialized so they would be worth very little as well -- even DTV can't use them.

Stockholders' equity is at $143mil.... take away just the 'goodwill' and you're in a hole you'll never get out of -- now add in the other worthless assets and tell me where you're at.

Point is they are not making money and the interest is far outpacing the cashflow -- and in the eventual restructuring the common is worth $0.00... the debt may be worth 50-75 cents on the dollar.

20 Companies Most Likely to Go Bankrupt in Next Year

is it a pre-requisite to be clueless about debt to invest in Sirius?

they're paying $400mil/yr in interest -- that ALONE will sink them. not to mention the nearly $4 bil in principal to pay back.

you guys talk about how they are nearly making money EXCLUDING interest.... guess what? that won't save you from bankruptcy. including interest they are losing money hand over fist and it's getting worse every quarter as they issue more debt to buy more time.... (only reason they want more time is for management to pay themselves their ridiculous salaries)

the debt holders own this company - it's just a matter of time... the common is worthless.

one of you SIRI bulls show me - in numbers - how they will come out of this please.