The Australian Dollar Breaks Out And Regains Correlation With The S&P 500 [View article]
i've been building up shorts over the last week which is why i'm now long the ozzy (nerves).
looking at the gbp/eur sat at 1.17 this morning with the rising trend line approaching. been a real sell-off and i think almost certain to bounce. i'll have my eye on it over the coming days thats for sure.
1st of jan? you mean the day gold crashed and stocks where at a high. try finding alpha in the other 364 days. my guess is that its in under 64 of them.
nervous just about sums up my personal sentiment as well.
i sold up(90% cash) at the september high as the 02 and 07 lows are in a channel with the 07 and september highs and am waiting for a break-out of this channel. the sp is knocking on the door as i type and the dj is a few points shy. the ftse has made multi year highs this morning and looks to be on its way to 6600.
i have a couple of shorts with tight stops but with little/negative real return on cash/bonds, the price of gold and the strength of the ozzy i'm inclined to think that the markets can soak up some more cash.
the money supply is + as is inflation but i'm still nervous.
could well be a very interesting week and i think the vix would be a good bet.
Larger Trade Defict To Weigh On Q4 GDP Estimates [View article]
i'm thinking the gdp release may be the turn in the market as the indexes in canada, japan, australia all hit multi year resistance and germany looks to hit its all time high for the third time which will look a very nice short with a lofty euro.
whilst i agree with most of the article, few westerners have seen the true night sky due to light pollution, a sight much more inspiring and romantic than even paris could ever hope to be.
its not too bad walking out of a shop with a $500 iphone a it instantly turning into a $400 iphone but try that tith a $250,000 house and you will quickly find that nobody wants to buy/invest/restore/mod... try that with your 401k and you will quickly find that it is in cash killing the markets and industry,(see japan). most people moaning about monetary policy forget they generally own more property than anything else and it is their properties value that the policy is aimed at.
as regards ben devaluing the $ now with QE, this is a myth. the $ was devalued during the credit expansion of the last decade and ben is just trying to hold of the correction that would kill the price of everything in $ terms. it was up to 2008 that prices rose globally and have collapsed since even given the negative real returns on cash and bonds.
the problem is that the currencies are TOO "alive and well".
throw the printer out and put interest rates up to 5% and we'll be able to get a barrel of oil for about $20 but unfortunatly you house's value will also collapse 75% as will all the coal, gas, steel and everything else that people(banks/corporates) have paid for.
it's 10 years of killing the dollar till assets catch up through inflation or a very painful correction for the owners(the western elites) of all this stuff.
The Australian Dollar Breaks Out And Regains Correlation With The S&P 500 [View article]
looking at the gbp/eur sat at 1.17 this morning with the rising trend line approaching. been a real sell-off and i think almost certain to bounce. i'll have my eye on it over the coming days thats for sure.
Gold And U.S. Government Debt: Highly Correlated [View article]
The Australian Dollar Breaks Out And Regains Correlation With The S&P 500 [View article]
i've just gone long aud/usd (1.04215)as i managed to totally convince myself that it would form a double top at some point.
not been long on these 2 for a while.
Gold Mean Reversion For Alpha [View article]
good luck.
Big Tests For Stocks [View article]
i sold up(90% cash) at the september high as the 02 and 07 lows are in a channel with the 07 and september highs and am waiting for a break-out of this channel. the sp is knocking on the door as i type and the dj is a few points shy. the ftse has made multi year highs this morning and looks to be on its way to 6600.
i have a couple of shorts with tight stops but with little/negative real return on cash/bonds, the price of gold and the strength of the ozzy i'm inclined to think that the markets can soak up some more cash.
the money supply is + as is inflation but i'm still nervous.
could well be a very interesting week and i think the vix would be a good bet.
thanks i always enjoy your articles.
Larger Trade Defict To Weigh On Q4 GDP Estimates [View article]
thanks for the article and good luck.
The Australian Dollar Breaks Out And Regains Correlation With The S&P 500 [View article]
had a good run shorting the ozzy but all good things come to an end.
will have another go at the september high (assuming it gets there).
i still believe the rba will win the war(3 more bullets) after another battle or two.
good luck
8 Reasons To Buy Gold And Other Inflation Protection Now [View article]
Prepare To Short Gold [View article]
property, oil, gold, property, oil, gold.....
human beings.
Lights Out In Paris [View article]
Commodity Chart Of The Day: Euro Currency [View article]
Car Sales Surge [View article]
Gold Looks Expensive [View article]
poor us.
Gold Looks Expensive [View article]
most people moaning about monetary policy forget they generally own more property than anything else and it is their properties value that the policy is aimed at.
as regards ben devaluing the $ now with QE, this is a myth. the $ was devalued during the credit expansion of the last decade and ben is just trying to hold of the correction that would kill the price of everything in $ terms. it was up to 2008 that prices rose globally and have collapsed since even given the negative real returns on cash and bonds.
Gold Looks Expensive [View article]
the problem is that the currencies are TOO "alive and well".
throw the printer out and put interest rates up to 5% and we'll be able to get a barrel of oil for about $20 but unfortunatly you house's value will also collapse 75% as will all the coal, gas, steel and everything else that people(banks/corporates) have paid for.
it's 10 years of killing the dollar till assets catch up through inflation or a very painful correction for the owners(the western elites) of all this stuff.