Frederic1974

Why a Million iPhone Sales In 74 Days Is Better Than You Think

I hate to disagree with you all, but I think Dan did a pretty good analysis. He did leave out a few major points though, such as the number of overseas sales that haven't even begun accruing. This alone could tilt his analysis in favor of meeting 10 million sales. However, I'd like to analyze Carl's three points.

First, Dan did indeed neglect holiday sales. This could be significant, especially considering the new lower price.

Second, carrier lockups are a non-issue. Before you flame me, let me explain. All the statistics gathered by Dan were subject to the fact that some people did not have contracts, some were willing to break them, and some expired during this 74 days. This will not change over the next 15+ months. I have not bought an iPhone yet, but I will when my contract runs out. This will happen December 2008. Just in time.

Third, availability was a non-issue. Everyone who wanted an iPhone could get one. Apple did a very good job meeting demand. If you wanted one during those 21 days and couldn't get one (I haven't heard of this happening), then you certainly could get one after the 21 days were over.

Now let's talk about some real issues that were not discussed.

1. Most of the statistics Dan collected before the 33% price cut. Anybody who knows anything about economics knows that demand will go up. The rate of sales cannot be extrapolated for this reason alone. You have to collect more data at the current price. Some are saying that demand has tripled since the price cut. I think these people are optimistic.

2. The biggest complaint I hear about the iPhone (besides the price) is that EDGE is slow. I'd bet money that Apple will release a 3G iPhone with more storage (16 - 32 GB) by the next holiday season. This should have a huge impact on demand.

Apple will sell more than 10 million iPods. My prediction is for 15 million iPods.