Jon Crowley's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/1069212/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1135561/comments?source=feed#comment-14808311 14808311 Sun, 10 Feb 2013 10:26:45 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1161411/comments?source=feed#comment-14699031 14699031 So are you saying it is impossible for a generic version of Acthar to be produced?]]> Thu, 07 Feb 2013 11:20:19 -0500 So are you saying it is impossible for a generic version of Acthar to be produced?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1161411/comments?source=feed#comment-14690671 14690671 -Your third point, I don't really care if my reputation took a hit. Nothing in my article is incorrect factually.
-Orphan drug prices. I'm well aware of what orphan drugs cost, thats why I didn't bring it up, I have no problem with the price they charge for Acthar. When I brought up the large margins I meant that in a positive note.
-Lastly my opinion was based on research. My opinion is that a decade ago Acthar had basically a few million in sales and no generic company cared about it. Now Questcor has a drug that could approach a billion in sales in a few years if growth continues and that generic companies will start to take notice. It is a fact that that Questcor has no pipeline what so ever and it is a fact that they rely 100% on Acthar for their revenues, so if a generic does get approved Questcor would take a hit. I'm just urging people to be cautious and to take this into consideration. I don't see why this is causing such uproar. ]]> Thu, 07 Feb 2013 09:00:59 -0500 -Your third point, I don't really care if my reputation took a hit. Nothing in my article is incorrect factually.
-Orphan drug prices. I'm well aware of what orphan drugs cost, thats why I didn't bring it up, I have no problem with the price they charge for Acthar. When I brought up the large margins I meant that in a positive note.
-Lastly my opinion was based on research. My opinion is that a decade ago Acthar had basically a few million in sales and no generic company cared about it. Now Questcor has a drug that could approach a billion in sales in a few years if growth continues and that generic companies will start to take notice. It is a fact that that Questcor has no pipeline what so ever and it is a fact that they rely 100% on Acthar for their revenues, so if a generic does get approved Questcor would take a hit. I'm just urging people to be cautious and to take this into consideration. I don't see why this is causing such uproar. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1161411/comments?source=feed#comment-14673931 14673931 -I agree the article title was a bit sensationalist I appologize
-I also agree my writing can be disorganized, I just do this for a hobby
-pharmaman I agree with you that many biotech companies only have one drug in their pipeline but those biotech companies also have patent protection
-Drdon I never said I was a Questcor expert, you say I am rehashing the Citron report. The Citron report said Questcor was partaking in questionable marketing and a generic could be produced rather easily. I said neither of these so I'm not sure where you are coming from.
-All I was trying to say with this article is that as Questcor continues to grow its sales it becomes more likely that a company might attempt to manufacture a generic, however I think it will be very hard and expensive to do this.
-I think you all can agree that if a generic is approved it would be devastating to Questcors stock price
-If no one ever comes out with a generic you will all make a lot of money]]> Wed, 06 Feb 2013 21:31:46 -0500 -I agree the article title was a bit sensationalist I appologize
-I also agree my writing can be disorganized, I just do this for a hobby
-pharmaman I agree with you that many biotech companies only have one drug in their pipeline but those biotech companies also have patent protection
-Drdon I never said I was a Questcor expert, you say I am rehashing the Citron report. The Citron report said Questcor was partaking in questionable marketing and a generic could be produced rather easily. I said neither of these so I'm not sure where you are coming from.
-All I was trying to say with this article is that as Questcor continues to grow its sales it becomes more likely that a company might attempt to manufacture a generic, however I think it will be very hard and expensive to do this.
-I think you all can agree that if a generic is approved it would be devastating to Questcors stock price
-If no one ever comes out with a generic you will all make a lot of money]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1135561/comments?source=feed#comment-14252841 14252841
This is what I wrote a few months ago about ABT-450 in another article.

Hepatitis C has become a hot disease state in the last few years for drug manufactures. With a projected market of 12 billion by 2015, many pharma companies are coming out with their own treatments to capture a piece of the pie. This means ABT-450 will be entering a crowded and competitive market place. What makes ABT-450 special is that it is taken orally while many of the new Hepatitis C drugs are given as injectables. This will lead to ease of administration for patients and possibly decreased manufacturing costs for AbbVie.

So far ABT-450 has completed 2 small phase II trials. The first trial, called Co-Pilot, treated 50 patients with a cocktail of medications that included ABT-450. Cure rates were over 90% for patients with no previous treatment and cure rates approached 50% for patients that had failed previous treatments. Although no serious side effects were reported, this was an extremely small trial so it is difficult to determine how ABT-450 will be tolerated in the long run. The second study was even smaller, testing only 11 patients that had not been treated before. These patients had a specific type of Hepatitis C that responds well to Interferon. Once again ABT-450 was given as a cocktail and 10 of the 11 patients were cured. If phase III trials are successful, a cocktail including ABT-450 could be on the market by 2014. What percentage of the 12 billion dollar Hepatitis C market ABT-450 will capture it difficult to estimate. However given that ABT-450 is given orally and Abbott has a couple other Hepatitis C compounds in its pipeline that could be included in part of a cocktail, sales approaching a billion are certainly achievable.

Since I wrote that article Abbvie has started phase III trials. Like I mentioned above there will be lots of competition but since ABT-450 is orally taken it will set it apart from the competition. Here are some links for trials that are ongoing or starting soon. The second one I have listed is a phase III trial. I hope that answered your question.
1. http://1.usa.gov/VKMT2W
2. http://1.usa.gov/Yzgy3A
3. http://1.usa.gov/VKMRbi
4. http://1.usa.gov/YzgAsl]]> Mon, 28 Jan 2013 09:44:25 -0500
This is what I wrote a few months ago about ABT-450 in another article.

Hepatitis C has become a hot disease state in the last few years for drug manufactures. With a projected market of 12 billion by 2015, many pharma companies are coming out with their own treatments to capture a piece of the pie. This means ABT-450 will be entering a crowded and competitive market place. What makes ABT-450 special is that it is taken orally while many of the new Hepatitis C drugs are given as injectables. This will lead to ease of administration for patients and possibly decreased manufacturing costs for AbbVie.

So far ABT-450 has completed 2 small phase II trials. The first trial, called Co-Pilot, treated 50 patients with a cocktail of medications that included ABT-450. Cure rates were over 90% for patients with no previous treatment and cure rates approached 50% for patients that had failed previous treatments. Although no serious side effects were reported, this was an extremely small trial so it is difficult to determine how ABT-450 will be tolerated in the long run. The second study was even smaller, testing only 11 patients that had not been treated before. These patients had a specific type of Hepatitis C that responds well to Interferon. Once again ABT-450 was given as a cocktail and 10 of the 11 patients were cured. If phase III trials are successful, a cocktail including ABT-450 could be on the market by 2014. What percentage of the 12 billion dollar Hepatitis C market ABT-450 will capture it difficult to estimate. However given that ABT-450 is given orally and Abbott has a couple other Hepatitis C compounds in its pipeline that could be included in part of a cocktail, sales approaching a billion are certainly achievable.

Since I wrote that article Abbvie has started phase III trials. Like I mentioned above there will be lots of competition but since ABT-450 is orally taken it will set it apart from the competition. Here are some links for trials that are ongoing or starting soon. The second one I have listed is a phase III trial. I hope that answered your question.
1. http://1.usa.gov/VKMT2W
2. http://1.usa.gov/Yzgy3A
3. http://1.usa.gov/VKMRbi
4. http://1.usa.gov/YzgAsl]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1135561/comments?source=feed#comment-14235221 14235221 Sun, 27 Jan 2013 20:56:45 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1088591/comments?source=feed#comment-13169991 13169991 Mon, 31 Dec 2012 20:03:11 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/821641/comments?source=feed#comment-8657361 8657361 1. Peak sales of 12 billion for Bydureon seems out of reach considering the market leader Victoza only had 700 million in sales
2. Also Victoza is still capturing 60% of the new scripts while Bydureon is getting a little less than 40%]]> Wed, 22 Aug 2012 12:55:52 -0400 1. Peak sales of 12 billion for Bydureon seems out of reach considering the market leader Victoza only had 700 million in sales
2. Also Victoza is still capturing 60% of the new scripts while Bydureon is getting a little less than 40%]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/729391/comments?source=feed#comment-7513651 7513651 You are correct, thanks for the correction. When I first looked up Vivitrol I wrote down Naloxone instead of Naltrexone and went from there. I will edit the article, thanks for the catch. ]]> Wed, 18 Jul 2012 13:45:31 -0400 You are correct, thanks for the correction. When I first looked up Vivitrol I wrote down Naloxone instead of Naltrexone and went from there. I will edit the article, thanks for the catch. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/660981/comments?source=feed#comment-7028971 7028971
Regarding Abbott's claim of having greater than 20 compounds in Phase II or Phase III, you are correct they don't have nearly that many novel compounds. All drug companies do this and it is frustrating. As far as Abbott's pipeline it is really tilted towards Phase 1 and II development, which makes it really difficult to determine how much potential they have. It will be interesting to see what AbbVie P/E will be when it becomes a standalone company. ]]> Tue, 03 Jul 2012 10:18:24 -0400
Regarding Abbott's claim of having greater than 20 compounds in Phase II or Phase III, you are correct they don't have nearly that many novel compounds. All drug companies do this and it is frustrating. As far as Abbott's pipeline it is really tilted towards Phase 1 and II development, which makes it really difficult to determine how much potential they have. It will be interesting to see what AbbVie P/E will be when it becomes a standalone company. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/660981/comments?source=feed#comment-7028731 7028731 Regarding bardoxolone's GFR I did link some letters to the editor in the NEJM that discusses this. In case you didn't see it here is the link again, http://bit.ly/LMYH1m. As you said if it can be shown to delay and/or prevent people going on dialysis it will be a big seller. Everything pretty much hinges on the phase III trial. ]]> Tue, 03 Jul 2012 10:13:18 -0400 Regarding bardoxolone's GFR I did link some letters to the editor in the NEJM that discusses this. In case you didn't see it here is the link again, http://bit.ly/LMYH1m. As you said if it can be shown to delay and/or prevent people going on dialysis it will be a big seller. Everything pretty much hinges on the phase III trial. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/660981/comments?source=feed#comment-6541601 6541601
Regarding Bardoxolone I think you are right that it isn't another Humira, but not many companies have a Humira in their pipelines. There is no magic bullet to replace Humira, AbbVie is going to have to multiple successful new compounds. About future competition, I think this is a good thing as it signifies that other companies see a large market to profit from. Look how many ACE inhibitors and ARB's are on the market, that hasn't stopped Novartis from raking in Billions in sales with Diovan.

Your concerns about Elotuzumab are warranted. While I agree that it probably won't become a first line agent, it could still generate significant sales if phase III data is positive. Oncologist's love to have as many tools as possible so there will most likely be a place for Elotuzumab.

Of the compounds in development you mentioned I really like GLPG0634, it has potential to have less side effects then Tofacitinib and is only taken once a day compared to twice daily for Tofacitinib. Of course Tofacitinib will have the advantage of being on the market first.

If I were to guess what AbbVie will look like in 2018. I would say Humira would still have 15-20 percent market share. If Bardoxolone has good phase III data it would have blockbuster like sales. And I think 2 or 3 of the compounds I listed above will have sales in the hundreds of millions, approaching a billion. The thing about AbbVie is that their pipeline is so loaded toward Phase I and II trails so it makes it difficult to project how much potential they have. ]]> Mon, 18 Jun 2012 16:02:15 -0400
Regarding Bardoxolone I think you are right that it isn't another Humira, but not many companies have a Humira in their pipelines. There is no magic bullet to replace Humira, AbbVie is going to have to multiple successful new compounds. About future competition, I think this is a good thing as it signifies that other companies see a large market to profit from. Look how many ACE inhibitors and ARB's are on the market, that hasn't stopped Novartis from raking in Billions in sales with Diovan.

Your concerns about Elotuzumab are warranted. While I agree that it probably won't become a first line agent, it could still generate significant sales if phase III data is positive. Oncologist's love to have as many tools as possible so there will most likely be a place for Elotuzumab.

Of the compounds in development you mentioned I really like GLPG0634, it has potential to have less side effects then Tofacitinib and is only taken once a day compared to twice daily for Tofacitinib. Of course Tofacitinib will have the advantage of being on the market first.

If I were to guess what AbbVie will look like in 2018. I would say Humira would still have 15-20 percent market share. If Bardoxolone has good phase III data it would have blockbuster like sales. And I think 2 or 3 of the compounds I listed above will have sales in the hundreds of millions, approaching a billion. The thing about AbbVie is that their pipeline is so loaded toward Phase I and II trails so it makes it difficult to project how much potential they have. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/660981/comments?source=feed#comment-6460591 6460591
Thanks for the kind comments! I'm glad you found the article(s) helpful. ]]> Fri, 15 Jun 2012 11:11:42 -0400
Thanks for the kind comments! I'm glad you found the article(s) helpful. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/660981/comments?source=feed#comment-6452551 6452551 Fri, 15 Jun 2012 08:34:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/660981/comments?source=feed#comment-6452531 6452531
If Bardoxolone actually increases kidney function like the phase II trail indicated then the benefits absolutely outweigh the risks. Hypomagnesemia is just low magnesium levels, which might be the cause of the spasms. GFR stands for Glomerular filtration rate and it is a tool physicians use to estimate kidney function. ]]> Fri, 15 Jun 2012 08:34:06 -0400
If Bardoxolone actually increases kidney function like the phase II trail indicated then the benefits absolutely outweigh the risks. Hypomagnesemia is just low magnesium levels, which might be the cause of the spasms. GFR stands for Glomerular filtration rate and it is a tool physicians use to estimate kidney function. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/628221/comments?source=feed#comment-6014771 6014771 Fri, 01 Jun 2012 12:46:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/577981/comments?source=feed#comment-5344791 5344791
Thanks for the compliment. More good news should be on the way. On June 28th the FDA will decide on apixaban's new drug application. Apixaban has true blockbuster potential, I wrote an article about its potential if you would like to read it.
http://seekingalpha.co...]]> Fri, 11 May 2012 12:48:26 -0400
Thanks for the compliment. More good news should be on the way. On June 28th the FDA will decide on apixaban's new drug application. Apixaban has true blockbuster potential, I wrote an article about its potential if you would like to read it.
http://seekingalpha.co...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/568971/comments?source=feed#comment-5310581 5310581 Thu, 10 May 2012 15:26:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/509501/comments?source=feed#comment-4709511 4709511
Yeah I have seen numerous analysts estimates from 1.5 billion to 3 billion so its quite a range. I agree that with you that this isn't a major blow to Novartis they have a good pipeline and are well diversified. As far as other drugs that have been stymied by side effects there are a ton. A few that are well known Cellebrex (HF), Januvia (pancreatitis), Avandia (HF). As far as how it effects sales a lot of it has to do with if there is another drug out there that works in a similar fashion but without the risk (see Avandia being replaced by Actos) and is the risk worth the benefit (see Tysarbi)]]> Mon, 23 Apr 2012 21:18:09 -0400
Yeah I have seen numerous analysts estimates from 1.5 billion to 3 billion so its quite a range. I agree that with you that this isn't a major blow to Novartis they have a good pipeline and are well diversified. As far as other drugs that have been stymied by side effects there are a ton. A few that are well known Cellebrex (HF), Januvia (pancreatitis), Avandia (HF). As far as how it effects sales a lot of it has to do with if there is another drug out there that works in a similar fashion but without the risk (see Avandia being replaced by Actos) and is the risk worth the benefit (see Tysarbi)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/481971/comments?source=feed#comment-4221101 4221101 I think your right about people underestimating Bydureon. Considering how quickly Victoza overtook Byetta based on its once daily administration its not far fetched to think Bydureon could surpass Victoza rather quickly. 2 things that Victoza does have in its favor are that it doesn't require reconstitution before administration, also Bydureon didn't show non inferiority in lowering A1C compared to Victoza in the DURATION-6 trial.

As far as the mixed results in treating weight loss, you might be on to something. Amylin still hasn't initiated a weight loss trial with Exenatide which surprises me. ]]> Sat, 07 Apr 2012 07:21:50 -0400 I think your right about people underestimating Bydureon. Considering how quickly Victoza overtook Byetta based on its once daily administration its not far fetched to think Bydureon could surpass Victoza rather quickly. 2 things that Victoza does have in its favor are that it doesn't require reconstitution before administration, also Bydureon didn't show non inferiority in lowering A1C compared to Victoza in the DURATION-6 trial.

As far as the mixed results in treating weight loss, you might be on to something. Amylin still hasn't initiated a weight loss trial with Exenatide which surprises me. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/473251/comments?source=feed#comment-4109831 4109831 I agree completely, I recently wrote an article about Pfizer selling off their divisions left and right. They better hope their R and D is significantly more successful then it has been in the past]]> Tue, 03 Apr 2012 16:01:47 -0400 I agree completely, I recently wrote an article about Pfizer selling off their divisions left and right. They better hope their R and D is significantly more successful then it has been in the past]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/473251/comments?source=feed#comment-4109451 4109451 I do agree Novo Nordisk is a great company, they concern me though because 1. as you mentioned they have a low dividend 2. their P/E is high compared to other drug companies 3. Almost all their products have to do with diabetes so they are not as diversified as I would like]]> Tue, 03 Apr 2012 15:56:21 -0400 I do agree Novo Nordisk is a great company, they concern me though because 1. as you mentioned they have a low dividend 2. their P/E is high compared to other drug companies 3. Almost all their products have to do with diabetes so they are not as diversified as I would like]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/473251/comments?source=feed#comment-4090641 4090641
Pfizer-had over 2 billion in sales with Prevnar 13 and it grew its sales by over 50% compared to last year. Prevnar also was just approved for prevention of pneumococcal pneumonia for patients over 50 late last year also. They also have PF-06290510(Staph), ACC-001(Alzheimer's), MnB rLP2086 (Meningitis) all in Phase II trials.

Merck- has Gardasil and Zostavax which are decent sellers, they have V419(Bordetella, Polio, H.Flu) in Phase III as well as a Vaccine for Pnuemonia in Phase II


]]> Tue, 03 Apr 2012 09:19:00 -0400
Pfizer-had over 2 billion in sales with Prevnar 13 and it grew its sales by over 50% compared to last year. Prevnar also was just approved for prevention of pneumococcal pneumonia for patients over 50 late last year also. They also have PF-06290510(Staph), ACC-001(Alzheimer's), MnB rLP2086 (Meningitis) all in Phase II trials.

Merck- has Gardasil and Zostavax which are decent sellers, they have V419(Bordetella, Polio, H.Flu) in Phase III as well as a Vaccine for Pnuemonia in Phase II


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/473251/comments?source=feed#comment-4080281 4080281 Thanks for the comment, your right i forgot to include it Novartis' vaccines and diagnostics business. Last year it was over 3 billion and growing, the only negative is that there will be lots of competition as lots of drug companies are investing heavily in the vaccine business. ]]> Mon, 02 Apr 2012 22:09:27 -0400 Thanks for the comment, your right i forgot to include it Novartis' vaccines and diagnostics business. Last year it was over 3 billion and growing, the only negative is that there will be lots of competition as lots of drug companies are investing heavily in the vaccine business. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/473251/comments?source=feed#comment-4080151 4080151 Unless Google finance is wrong their last five years of dividends have been 1.54, 1.72, 1.95, 2.36, and 2.48 so they have been steadily increasing the dividend the last few years. ]]> Mon, 02 Apr 2012 22:03:32 -0400 Unless Google finance is wrong their last five years of dividends have been 1.54, 1.72, 1.95, 2.36, and 2.48 so they have been steadily increasing the dividend the last few years. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/443071/comments?source=feed#comment-3640131 3640131 Tue, 20 Mar 2012 09:10:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/443071/comments?source=feed#comment-3639811 3639811 Tue, 20 Mar 2012 09:03:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/443071/comments?source=feed#comment-3639691 3639691 Tue, 20 Mar 2012 08:59:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/414781/comments?source=feed#comment-3244821 3244821
Don't forget Novartis' generic unit Sandoz though, they already have a few biosimilar's available in Europe and one here in the US

http://bit.ly/yZ18i3]]> Wed, 07 Mar 2012 08:26:20 -0500
Don't forget Novartis' generic unit Sandoz though, they already have a few biosimilar's available in Europe and one here in the US

http://bit.ly/yZ18i3]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/362051/comments?source=feed#comment-2634831 2634831 http://bit.ly/zyDoTf]]> Tue, 14 Feb 2012 12:36:41 -0500 http://bit.ly/zyDoTf]]>