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  • Is This Bull Market Fundamentally Driven? A Look At P/E Expansion [View article]
    While that is the argument Jeremy Siegel tries to make to downplay a high Shiller PE (which also existed before the fall in 08--so what was the reason then before the 57% fall?)...I don't see it's validity. What he "conveniently" forgets is that the reduction in earnings in 2008 was just a reversal of artificially high earnings the banks/homebuilders and others booked in the years following up to it -- thus the magic of averaging!! The reality is the fall of earnings really only messes up the traditional PE ratio--making it artificially high at bottoms.....yet that's the one Siegel likes to point at--of course only when it proves his point (when it is artificially suppressed at the peak of a cycle). Siegel likes to think drops in earnings should be disregarded but all gains in earnings are legit. Does he not understand the point of Cyclically adjusted earnings?
    Mar 20, 2013. 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This Bull Market Fundamentally Driven? A Look At P/E Expansion [View article]
    cstauffer, I'm not so sure low interest rates necessarily justify high PE ratios, even more so cyclically inflation-adjusted PEs as used here (essentially what the Fed Model dire results) however, even if you do think that then look at the 2nd best bull market listed on there..1949-1956 (please note I have corrected the chart on my site and Doug's but not here yet. the starting PE is a much lower 8.8 but it is still the 2nd ranked)...Anyway, the interest rate environment during that whole bull market was not too different from today. In fact the 10yr was at 2.32 at the start of that and was essentially below 3 for almost the entire period. So despite low interest rates of 2.3% -- the Shiller PE managed single digits. In fact, interest rates were basically below 3% during the whole 20 year period of 1935-1955 and the average Shiller PE was 13....Below Average! Evidence does not support the assertion of the Fed Model.
    Mar 19, 2013. 09:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Airlines Is Ridiculously Expensive [View article]
    Would be interested in seeing where these price targets are coming current price $4.15 it represents a market cap of 1.39B. At $6-$7 that would be like 2-2.35B market cap -- Assuming a generous 13B Market Cap of the merged company that means AAMRQ shareholders are getting 15-18% of merged company....a laughable proposition considering they are only getting 3.5% + some "possible" additional shares.
    Mar 15, 2013. 02:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Airlines Is Ridiculously Expensive [View article]
    On what alternative universe are you seeing $19/sh for AAMRQ?? How are you coming to that? AAMRQ does not represent 85% of anything. AMR CREDITORS own the majority of the merged company. AAMRQ shareholders only gets 3.5% of the merged company shares plus some oddball "possible" extra shares...even if you double their shares (I don't see that happening...and actually bet they get nothing extra)..their gonna be at $2.50/sh.
    Mar 15, 2013. 02:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Asset Allocation And 'Real' Career Risk [View article]
    Only problem with this commentary is Bill Smead is trying to pretend that his strategy is more rare than grantham's benchmark free-strategy. Despite the growth in these strategies....they are nowhere near as common as "long-only large-cap" still is.
    Apr 28, 2012. 11:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Japan Falls, We Will Feel It [View article]
    Yet Buffet and the rest only want to tell everyone how bad of an investment US treasuries are. Markets will not turn on US treasuries until they turn on the Japanese market (or at the same time).
    Feb 15, 2012. 04:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Equal Weighted Over Value Weighted: RSP Vs. SPY [View article]
    Equal weighted indexes have proved they are better, yes there will be shorter time frames when people question whether it is, but how can anyone not see the logical flaw of cap weighting methodology 2020 the superior methodology of the RAFI method over cap weighting (and I will bet equal weighting) will also be documented (to a degree it already has). This will also be proven in the bond arena.

    I find it humorous people still pile into SPY......
    Jan 27, 2012. 11:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Alternative and Non-Traditional Investments in an Uncertain World [View article]
    A book by Dr. Bob? Beware.

    When Should Wall Street 'Investment Strategists' Be Fired? Calling Out "Dr. Bob" Froehlich
    Jan 13, 2012. 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debunking The Chinese 'Soft Economic Landing' Myth: Short The Bubble [View article]
    Dominos..........Real Estate in China is a disaster......Australia and Canada will Fall with it. Correct Acronym for Real Estate in Canada, China and Australia = CaCA
    Dec 19, 2011. 10:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Morningstar Introduces Forward-Looking Morningstar Analyst Rating™ for Funds and Global Fund Reports [View article]
    I also think it was interesting they came out with the rating system. However, what's more interesting is that they have ratings for FAR MORE then the 350 or so they claim. In fact there are already ratings on 1683. Actually about 83 are "under review". I posted them here . They clearly didn't hide these very well, as of my posting they were available to the public.
    Nov 15, 2011. 08:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment