1. China gets to spend some of "their dollar holdings" ...lots of that...and they "don't want to buy much more of u.s. treasuries...that pay a "lower interest rate" then Europe...so THEY HEAVILY invest in Europe (u.s. consumer mkt is weak...so they move from supporting u.s. to supporting Europe).
2. Europeans then can "heavily purchase" Chinese Exports.
3. Europe currency "is supported" don't have to "just print" as they are getting "existing money" from China....
4. Dollar "tanks" as Euro value rises...makes Ben happy...because u.s. exports become cheaper AS DOLLAR DECLINES...
5. World stock mkts HAVE "SANTA CLAUS" RALLY...
6. GOLD flys up too...lots of "still increasing worldwide inflation" and still have lots of "weak paper in Western banks"...so the play is still to have "Gold as a hefty percentage of investor portfolios...
oh, CHINA could demand "some BACKUP" for their INVESTMENTS IN Europe ...BACKED BY GOLD to some extent...
maybe China will help Europe...I'm thinkin' and WHY...
...included in the linked article...is the Chinese dilemma...
China would like to unleash up to 16 trillion juan (2 trillion plus in dollars) to help their stalling economy...
however, they are worried about inflation...
so, here's my thinking... they could supply "huge support" for Europe...thereby not "saturating" their local economy with these funds (raising domestic inflation)... instead if they "back Europe" with this money (bond purchases/loans)...they keep this money from causing inflation in their local economy...but at the same time use it to "support one of their largest trading partners"...who then, in turn CAN PURCHASE THEIR EXPORTS...
several problems solved:
1. using and getting a return on their money.
2. increasing the "health" of the the largest potential market they need to export to and depend on...
The Likely Outcome If The ECB Buys Unlimited Sovereign Bonds [View article]
why the ECB "has" to "massively" purchase weak sovereign debt...and "QUICKLY!"
using a "medical analogy" ...
I agree, that in "the unprecedented global recessionary times we are in" ... that the "great semi-socialist support model" of most of the countries in the EU...do need some "austerity cut reality measures." And, a great deal of this austerity has been done....
But, as in the case of Greece...things are "at the breaking point" economically...any further "austerity measures" are likely to precipitate "really huge rioting" and "not only in Greece...but the rest of the weaker players...Italy, Spain, etc.
Though, Greece "may not have quite reached" the "austerity goals" proposed, in general, by the EU...they HAVE CUT SPENDING DRASTICALLY...many gov jobs, etc. have been cut, etc. - and I think this is "about as good as it gets" with respect to "Austerity Measures."
Now, any further demands or "brinksmanship" (mainly by Merkel/Germany) for "more Austerity" IS LIKELY TO "SPIN OUT OF CONTROL" and RISK collapse of the European Union...and "huge financial degradation" throughout the "global economy."
So - using a medical analogy - IF THE CURE IS "turning out to be" WORSE THAN THE DISEASE...AND WILL RESULT IN GREATER INJURY/DEATH TO THE PATIENTS...THEN "YOU STOP APPLYING IT ...ANY FURTHER...(I'M REFERRING HERE TO "FURTHER AUSTERITY MEASURES!"). Further moves in that direction - as a primary remedy - have to be, for the most part, ABANDONED...
Now - using another analogy -
I once - HAD HUGE LEVELS OF CREDIT - but LOST MY HIGH-PAYING JOB (which paid those large credit card levels of debt that I had become "complacent" about... poor planning on my part...didn't figure on "what would happen" if I LOST MY JOB...and the rev stream to maintain all that stopped...)
Anyway, It "looked like bankruptcy" was going to be the result... but BEING SMART...THIS WAS "HOW I GOT OUT OF THIS DEBACLE "WITHOUT THE LONG-TERM NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF "DECLARING BANKRUPTCY!"
I (having HUGE credit card debt levels...but ALSO HUGE LEVELS OF REMAINING CREDIT...merely starting USING EXISTING CREDIT CARDS to "keep making the monthly payments" on the OTHER CREDIT CARDS...ETC.
Now, Yes...I was going INTO EVEN "DEEPER DEBT" ...BUT I WAS "AVOIDING THE PERSONAL FINANCIAL COLLAPSE" of IMMEDIATELY FILING FOR BANKRUPTCY!!!"
Now, what I DID (and I was unemployed for nearly a year) IS:
I RETRAINED...and eventually GOT A "MUCH HIGHER PAYING JOB" and therefore GOT BACK TO MY "HIGH-END LIFESTYLE" without CRASHING!
...and THEN...managed to PAY-DOWN "ALL" MY CREDIT DEBT...without going into "bankruptcy..."
So, now I lead a much more "frugal" lifestyle (no more multiple new cars, etc., eating out regularly at "expensive restaurants"...partying 5 nights a week...etc....)
Now, I have "huge credit" again...(but no debts...I pay off everything "each month" completely...)
So, that's why I AM ADVOCATING "massive ECB intervention and "backing up" of weak "sovereign debt"...YES, "AUSTERITY MEASURES ARE NECESSARY" ...BUT DON'T "COLLAPSE THE WHOLE THING (EU) in "a panic."
USE MY "CC JOB" ANALOGY...keep things ALIVE AND SEMI-STABLE...and
YOU WILL GET A "NEW HIGHER PAYING JOB" in reality...NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN TECHNOLOGY...are on the "horizon," for example (like the Internet did in the nineties)...
but YOU HAVE TO "AVOID HUGE ECONOMIC DISRUPTION AND COLLAPSE, now...'til this "new stuff" (like me getting a "higher paying job" in my analogy, and not giving up and collapsing into bankruptcy, etc.) HAPPENS...
you can DEFINITELY LOSE NOW ...if you panic and collapse...
BUT THE BETTER WAY: GAMBLE ON THE FUTURE presenting a "solution... unexpected RECOVERY METHOD" that "you haven't ANTICIPATED as part of your thinking!
1. just a temp selldown to "cover margin calls on stock losses, etc..."
2. will be bought back UP as things settle down.
3. Europe will not let "whole system" go down...
4. Probably give the "bad news" to the banksters that hold Italian debt...THAT THEY TOO WILL HAVE TO TAKE A "HAIRCUT" ...like the Greeks...probably not as big though....
5. Dollar WILL GO DOWN TOO...cause our "treasury holders" ARE GONNA HAVE TO TAKE A "HAIRCUT, TOO!"
...just the "top of the mountain" THAT THE FLOOD "WILL COVER, TOO!"
only thing that will survive is "GOLD" ...unlike "increasingly worthless paper" ...it can GET WET and still retain IT'S LUSTER AND VALUE...unlike "wet paper" which gradually dissolves...
the PRECEDENT was set in the RECENT EU negotiations with Greece...
the Greek Gov AGREED THAT THE "BONDHOLDERS" (READ BANKS) WHO WERE INVESTED IN GREEK SOVEREIGN debt...would TAKE A 50% HAIRCUT...(meaning lose 50% of their investment in Greece).
Now, the AUSTERITY MEASURES would be MORE PALATABLE to the Greek Citizenry IF THEY KNEW that those "BANKSTERS" WOULD "SUFFER...TOO!"
So, THE SAME MEDICINE ...WILL BE PRESCRIBED FOR THE "ITALY," ETC....
THE SOVEREIGN DEBT INVESTORS IN ITALY ...have TO TAKE THE SAME MEDICINE...
then AT LEAST when you DICTATE AUSTERITY (necessary) to the Italian People...THEY CAN ACCEPT IT...KNOWING THAT "THEIR BANKSTERS" ARE EATING SOME OF THE LOSS...that they were partly responsible for ...BECAUSE OF THEIR DEALS WITH THE RESPECTIVE POLITICIANS OF THE PIIGS GOVERNMENTS...
that's it...bondholders everywhere...BETTER GET INTO "GOLD!" ...even the dollar won't save you....
the PRECEDENT was set in the RECENT EU negotiations with Greece...
the Greek Gov AGREED THAT THE "BONDHOLDERS" (READ BANKS) WHO WERE INVESTED IN GREEK SOVEREIGN debt...would TAKE A 50% HAIRCUT...(meaning lose 50% of their investment in Greece).
Now, the AUSTERITY MEASURES would be MORE PALATABLE to the Greek Citizenry IF THEY KNEW that those "BANKSTERS" WOULD "SUFFER...TOO!"
So, THE SAME MEDICINE ...WILL BE PRESCRIBED FOR THE "ITALY," ETC....
THE SOVEREIGN DEBT INVESTORS IN ITALY ...have TO TAKE THE SAME MEDICINE...
then AT LEAST when you DICTATE AUSTERITY (necessary) to the Italian People...THEY CAN ACCEPT IT...KNOWING THAT "THEIR BANKSTERS" ARE EATING SOME OF THE LOSS...that they were partly responsible for ...BECAUSE OF THEIR DEALS WITH THE RESPECTIVE POLITICIANS OF THE PIIGS GOVERNMENTS...
that's it...bondholders everywhere...BETTER GET INTO "GOLD!" ...even the dollar won't save you....
The Fed Steers Clear Of Quantitative Easing [View article]
just listened to the "Bernank!"
he pretty much indicated to me - without doubt to me -
that the next QE-stimulus can be implemented at "a moments notice." (specifically, he indicated: the mortgage buyback...which would be huge and "super gov-spending (money printing) inflationary.
So, basically HE SIGNALLED A "BACKSTOP SUPPORT" OF THE MKTS (obviously Gold too in that case).
So, with a "somewhat improvment in earnings" and THAT KIND OF BACKSTOP-UP...
well, we should, with allowing for the usual volatility...doing the old "one step back- TWO STEPS UP...routine...do well.
so, looking good for the MKTS and Gold...going forward...
FOMC Preview: Bernanke's Third Press Conference [View article]
there WILL BE THE EQUIVALENT OF A QE3...
1. Did you really think Bernanke was gonna make something like that public....with O'b trying to distance himself from Wall St....to WIN his election bid...
O'b don't want Ben to "make waves" by announcing GOV INFLATIONARY SPENDING...BUT IN REALITY...
2. Since the CASH-RICH PRIVATE SECTOR won't SPEND to jump-start the economy...THE GOV "HAS TO DO IT." ...you should understand that the MAJOR REASON the ECONOMY is WHERE IT IS RIGHT NOW is due to PAST GOV SPENDING QE PROGRAMS...
the Repubs keep touting that QE DIDN'T WORK..."BUT IT DID" ...we would REALLY BE UP THE CREEK IF THEY HADN'T DONE THE QE GOV SPENDING...it's not about WHERE WE ARE NOW...but the DEEP SH-T WE WOULD HAVE BEEN IN...without ALL THAT GOV SPENDING between Lehman and Jun 2011,
here's the INFLATIONARY SPENDING "HAPPENING AND PLANNED TO HAPPEN ...going forward...
1. The essentially QE program to "backstop" Europe...ya know "overnight bank rates" in dollars backed by the 4 central banks...GB, Swiss, Japan, and of course the Fed....
2. Fed purchase of mortgages...to help jumpstart Real Estate
3. Student Loans ...(one Trillion dollars) ... Fed to absorb differencial so students stop defaulting...
4. Fema budget... Irene...this past "freak storm" MILLLIONS WITHOUT POWER...strapped state budgets... Conn didn't pay Irene contractors - 600,000 STILL WITHOUT POWER....
5. Damage from Irene...did you forget the roads in Vermont and elsewhere...FED going to have to PRINT/SPEND...
6. OB'S JOBS PROGRAM...if "private sector won't spend" ...OB will get it done somehow...hire teachers, firemen, police...THAT WERE LAID OFF...
good to put some money in some consumer's pockets to SUPPORT CONSUMER RETAIL ECONOMY...
BOTTOM LINE: GOV "WILL PRINT" AND LOTS...
to PAY FOR ALL THIS STUFF...NOBODY ELSE OUT THERE TO DO IT....
flashrob
Ps. So, AS I SAID...YOU'RE ARE GOING TO GET THE "BIGGEST QE PROGRAMS" OF THEM ALL...
Ben just GOT TO DO THE "PRINTING AND INFLATIONARY SPENDING" quietly...so Tea-Party types CAN'T BLAST OB'S ELECTION BID...
THAT'S THE REALITY...
TIME FOR A RALLY "WALL ST."...QE "IS ON THE WAY!!!"
here's a start ON HOW TO GET THE ECONOMY MOVING FOR REAL... including WORLD FINANCIAL MKTS!
my only taxes are "Real Estate", Sales Taxes, gas, don't use much, don't work, live in big house, no cc debts, spend 2-3 k a month...investments in IRA's ... big gains in mkt are tax free... often "thousands a day."
So...THE ONLY WAY YOU "TAX PEOPLE LIKE ME" is ****** SALES (CONSUMPTION TAX)!
and "I WOULDN'T MIND THIS" because I AM NOT SELFISH!
BUT YOUR POLITICIANS are now advocating "flat tax"!
FLAT TAX is SCAM, but LIKE IN MY CASE, I WILL STILL NOT BE PAYING "MORE!"
neither will DRUG DEALERS, multinationals)...ALL PEOPLE AND BIZ who declare LOW REVS...from working or sales...
so...DEMAND A "CONSUMPTION TAX" SO NO ONE CAN EVADE TAXES...gov THE TAX THEY PAY (weapons, medicare...) WILL JUST BE PAYING ITSELF...
DON'T LET THEM "SCAM YOU" WITH "FLAT TAX NONSENSE"...which POLS TALK UP! JUST A SCAM...
NOBODY "BEATS THE CONSUMPTION TAX"... the ONE THING I have not figured HOW TO BEAT IN THE "TAX GAME!"
GE PAID VERY LITTLE TAXES... in a down economy MOST PEOPLE AND BIZ PAY "MUCH LESS TAXES"
...BUT ALL WOULD PAY...AND GET THE ECONOMY ROLLING AGAIN... if ALL PAID CONSUMPTION TAXES...
NO BIG CORPS NOT PAYING TAXES...because "their books" show THEY HAD NO REVS...
IF THEY PAY "CONSUMPTION TAXES" ...THEY "CAN'T EVADE PAYING THEIR FAIR SHARE" ...etc.
I was greatly shocked some months ago, when listening to one of Ben Bernanke”s Fed testimonials…in which he stated that INFLATION was “not a problem,” and that “core inflation” – that’s what the Fed uses to measure inflation – was only up .1%. (core inflation, as opposed to “real inflation,” excludes food, energy…all the real stuff that much of the average consumer’s income is spent on…)
What the hell, I thought… has this guy filled his gas-tank lately? The price of gasoline had risen .97 cents from this time last year. Being a comparison shopper, I had also estimated that the the average prices in Target had increased about 25% in that same one year. (I shop in Target a lot (and buy a wide variety of items, so it’s a good indicator to me of “real inflation”). The .97 cent increase in the price of gasoline, over the course of a year, is actually about 25%, also. So, there’s verification: cost of food, and cost of gasoline. So, REAL INFLATION has increased about 25% in “just one year!” But, I think you know this, and if you don’t, then someone else must be paying “all your bills.”
Here’s an actual example of an “inflation price increase” at Target.
Yesterday, while shopping, I went to pick up some paper towels (I use a lot of those…dispensers in bath, garage, basement, kitchen.) I always buy several “two packs” of Viva, and the price is 1.48 for each “two roll pack” of quality paper towels. The reason I buy this way: it’s actually “cheaper than the bulk 8-12 packs” …get it: it’s about $9.00 when you buy it this way…as opposed to a 12-pack, for example, which is way more expensive…like 11-12.99…tricky stuff this shopping…but I pay attention to “unit pricing” - which, by-the-way...”most people DON’T SEEM TO NOTICE this kind of “trickery!”
Back to my “real inflation example…” so, I go to get my “2 rolls of deluxe Viva for $1.48 a pack,” and guess what… they are “not there anymore.” What is there, is “2 slightly bigger roll pack of Viva with a PRICE OF $4.99!” Now, at first, I thought “it was a mistake”…the price couldn’t have INFLATION INCREASED…”THAT MUCH!” But it had… I used the “price checker scanner,” and $4.99 was the correct price for the new “two pack of Viva paper towels.” Now, I understand that Target/Viva, maybe hadn’t raised “that price” since last year, and so were “just catching up,” But still…that’s a “huge jump in price!”
So, that’s some about pricing with respect to “REAL INFLATION!”
Now… on credit cards.
One of my “major credit cards (and I rarely use major credit cards, except for big ticket purchases online or eating out, etc…), and I ALWAYS PAY OFF THE BALANCE IN FULL EACH MONTH, so that I don’t have to pay any “interest charges.”
Essentially, I “never cared about “interest rate charges” on credit cards…since I rarely ever pay any - have, like an 850 rating, or should, etc. - I never really looked at the statements in detail…just pay off the full balance online, or by mail. Anyway, I got behind in opening my mail, and opened this cc bill, and noticed it was “just about due.” Well, I didn’t want to screw up my perfect credit record, etc., so I proceed to pay off the whole balance…but as I was doing this – and I was glad I noticed this – IF I HAD BEEN “ONE DAY LATE” in making my payment… “MY INTEREST RATE WOULD HAVE GONE FROM ABOUT 14% TO 29%...just for being “one day late!”
So, it occurred to me: HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE PROBABLY “ONE DAY LATE” …for whatever reason…mail delay, misplaced mail at home…there are lots of reasons you could be late with a payment…even if “you have, or make a lot of money.” AND ONCE YOU HAVE “SLIPPED UP,” for whatever reason…THEY HAVE YOU AT THAT NEW “SUPER HIGH RATE.” Now, in my case that wouldn’t have “made much difference.” My recent charges about 2500. since the last billing…I just paid off in full…so a huge increase in the “interest rate” just makes my credit rating shaky…but is of no real consequence to me…other than that, because I always pay off the balance in full.
I could easily get along with just debit cards…but then you have to “keep checking the cash balance in your accounts, etc.” so you don’t overdraw your account, etc…and I don’t want to pay for overdraft, so I keep a few major cc cards… is the easier way to go for me.
So, in conclusion: I’m estimating that A MAJORITY OF CONSUMERS are paying “on average” OVER 20% and maybe even 29%...”UNBELIEVEABLE!” …because as the months go by…you’re “bound to slip up and be late” …and it “only takes one time…” and they got you!
So, “THAT’S YOUR REAL INFLATION METER” along with the one, I previously mentioned: your local service-station pump price for a gallon of gas!”
Two of the greatest “non-bull-spin” meter-type indicators of REAL INFLATION…the inflation that AFFECTS YOU!
Not some “phony government statistic” you heard in the media, like Ben’s “core-inflation” hype nonsense.
Note: a couple other points…
The Federal Reserve and Credit Card agencies…publish statistics on “interest rate statistics.” I’m not trusting those… kind of like the misleading “unemployment statistics” they give you: they “don’t include people” WHO ARE NO LONGER ELIGIBLE TO COLLECT BENEFITS…BUT ARE “STILL UNEMPLOYED!” “getting the picture here” …it’s called: “making sh_tty numbers” LOOK GOOD, OR NOT AS BAD AS THEY REALLY ARE!!!
So, when the “CREDIT CARD INTEREST RATES” start to “go the other way” …then I’ll maybe start to believe INFLATION is diminishing…until then … I KNOW THAT PRO-FINANCIAL PEOPLE aren’t stupid…THEY ARE PRICING IN “REAL INFLATION” INTO THOSE CREDIT-CARD REVENUES TO “OFFSET REAL INFLATION!” …and so that is the pro-financial people INDICATING TO YOU THAT WE HAVE “REAL INFLATION” and those rates are expected to KEEP ON INCREASING…which means the Pro-financial people: DON’T REALLY BELIEVE WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A “FINANCIAL RECOVERY!... bad days now and “to continue” is their message, etc.
Also, watch, the “price of gasoline, too” …though the gov can “influence that more.” But “credit cards” is “private financials” so THAT’S EVEN A BETTER MEASURE OF “REAL INFLATION.”
Europe's Disastrous Summit [View article]
http://reut.rs/vsHFRk
Europe's Disastrous Summit [View article]
1. China gets to spend some of "their dollar holdings" ...lots of that...and they "don't want to buy much more of u.s. treasuries...that pay a "lower interest rate" then Europe...so THEY HEAVILY invest in Europe (u.s. consumer mkt is weak...so they move from supporting u.s. to supporting Europe).
2. Europeans then can "heavily purchase" Chinese Exports.
3. Europe currency "is supported" don't have to "just print" as they are getting "existing money" from China....
4. Dollar "tanks" as Euro value rises...makes Ben happy...because u.s. exports become cheaper AS DOLLAR DECLINES...
5. World stock mkts HAVE "SANTA CLAUS" RALLY...
6. GOLD flys up too...lots of "still increasing worldwide inflation" and still have lots of "weak paper in Western banks"...so the play is still to have "Gold as a hefty percentage of investor portfolios...
oh, CHINA could demand "some BACKUP" for their INVESTMENTS IN Europe ...BACKED BY GOLD to some extent...
that's how to "make most happy" in the world...
flashrob
Europe's Disastrous Summit [View article]
...included in the linked article...is the Chinese dilemma...
China would like to unleash up to 16 trillion juan (2 trillion plus in dollars) to help their stalling economy...
however, they are worried about inflation...
so, here's my thinking... they could supply "huge support" for Europe...thereby not "saturating" their local economy with these funds (raising domestic inflation)... instead if they "back Europe" with this money (bond purchases/loans)...they keep this money from causing inflation in their local economy...but at the same time use it to "support one of their largest trading partners"...who then, in turn CAN PURCHASE THEIR EXPORTS...
several problems solved:
1. using and getting a return on their money.
2. increasing the "health" of the the largest potential market they need to export to and depend on...
3. not flooding/inflating their local economy...
looks good to me...
here's the link with the referenced data...
http://reut.rs/uuzR7Y
The Likely Outcome If The ECB Buys Unlimited Sovereign Bonds [View article]
The Likely Outcome If The ECB Buys Unlimited Sovereign Bonds [View article]
using a "medical analogy" ...
I agree, that in "the unprecedented global recessionary times we are in" ... that the "great semi-socialist support model" of most of the countries in the EU...do need some "austerity cut reality measures." And, a great deal of this austerity has been done....
But, as in the case of Greece...things are "at the breaking point" economically...any further "austerity measures" are likely to precipitate "really huge rioting" and "not only in Greece...but the rest of the weaker players...Italy, Spain, etc.
Though, Greece "may not have quite reached" the "austerity goals" proposed, in general, by the EU...they HAVE CUT SPENDING DRASTICALLY...many gov jobs, etc. have been cut, etc. - and I think this is "about as good as it gets" with respect to "Austerity Measures."
Now, any further demands or "brinksmanship" (mainly by Merkel/Germany) for "more Austerity" IS LIKELY TO "SPIN OUT OF CONTROL" and RISK collapse of the European Union...and "huge financial degradation" throughout the "global economy."
So - using a medical analogy - IF THE CURE IS "turning out to be" WORSE THAN THE DISEASE...AND WILL RESULT IN GREATER INJURY/DEATH TO THE PATIENTS...THEN "YOU STOP APPLYING IT ...ANY FURTHER...(I'M REFERRING HERE TO "FURTHER AUSTERITY MEASURES!"). Further moves in that direction - as a primary remedy - have to be, for the most part, ABANDONED...
Now - using another analogy -
I once - HAD HUGE LEVELS OF CREDIT - but LOST MY HIGH-PAYING JOB (which paid those large credit card levels of debt that I had become "complacent" about... poor planning on my part...didn't figure on "what would happen" if I LOST MY JOB...and the rev stream to maintain all that stopped...)
Anyway, It "looked like bankruptcy" was going to be the result... but BEING SMART...THIS WAS "HOW I GOT OUT OF THIS DEBACLE "WITHOUT THE LONG-TERM NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF "DECLARING BANKRUPTCY!"
I (having HUGE credit card debt levels...but ALSO HUGE LEVELS OF REMAINING CREDIT...merely starting USING EXISTING CREDIT CARDS to "keep making the monthly payments" on the OTHER CREDIT CARDS...ETC.
Now, Yes...I was going INTO EVEN "DEEPER DEBT" ...BUT I WAS "AVOIDING THE PERSONAL FINANCIAL COLLAPSE" of IMMEDIATELY FILING FOR BANKRUPTCY!!!"
Now, what I DID (and I was unemployed for nearly a year) IS:
I RETRAINED...and eventually GOT A "MUCH HIGHER PAYING JOB" and therefore GOT BACK TO MY "HIGH-END LIFESTYLE" without CRASHING!
...and THEN...managed to PAY-DOWN "ALL" MY CREDIT DEBT...without going into "bankruptcy..."
So, now I lead a much more "frugal" lifestyle (no more multiple new cars, etc., eating out regularly at "expensive restaurants"...partying 5 nights a week...etc....)
Now, I have "huge credit" again...(but no debts...I pay off everything "each month" completely...)
So, that's why I AM ADVOCATING "massive ECB intervention and "backing up" of weak "sovereign debt"...YES, "AUSTERITY MEASURES ARE NECESSARY" ...BUT DON'T "COLLAPSE THE WHOLE THING (EU) in "a panic."
USE MY "CC JOB" ANALOGY...keep things ALIVE AND SEMI-STABLE...and
YOU WILL GET A "NEW HIGHER PAYING JOB" in reality...NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN TECHNOLOGY...are on the "horizon," for example (like the Internet did in the nineties)...
but YOU HAVE TO "AVOID HUGE ECONOMIC DISRUPTION AND COLLAPSE, now...'til this "new stuff" (like me getting a "higher paying job" in my analogy, and not giving up and collapsing into bankruptcy, etc.) HAPPENS...
you can DEFINITELY LOSE NOW ...if you panic and collapse...
BUT THE BETTER WAY: GAMBLE ON THE FUTURE presenting a "solution... unexpected RECOVERY METHOD" that "you haven't ANTICIPATED as part of your thinking!
FLASHROB
Gold Is Now A Strong Buy [View article]
1. just a temp selldown to "cover margin calls on stock losses, etc..."
2. will be bought back UP as things settle down.
3. Europe will not let "whole system" go down...
4. Probably give the "bad news" to the banksters that hold Italian debt...THAT THEY TOO WILL HAVE TO TAKE A "HAIRCUT" ...like the Greeks...probably not as big though....
5. Dollar WILL GO DOWN TOO...cause our "treasury holders" ARE GONNA HAVE TO TAKE A "HAIRCUT, TOO!"
...just the "top of the mountain" THAT THE FLOOD "WILL COVER, TOO!"
only thing that will survive is "GOLD" ...unlike "increasingly worthless paper" ...it can GET WET and still retain IT'S LUSTER AND VALUE...unlike "wet paper" which gradually dissolves...
so, in the days ahead...GOLD BACK UP...
paper...IT'S ALL WET!
flashrob
Gold Is Now A Strong Buy [View article]
the PRECEDENT was set in the RECENT EU negotiations with Greece...
the Greek Gov AGREED THAT THE "BONDHOLDERS" (READ BANKS) WHO WERE INVESTED IN GREEK SOVEREIGN debt...would TAKE A 50% HAIRCUT...(meaning lose 50% of their investment in Greece).
Now, the AUSTERITY MEASURES would be MORE PALATABLE to the Greek Citizenry IF THEY KNEW that those "BANKSTERS" WOULD "SUFFER...TOO!"
So, THE SAME MEDICINE ...WILL BE PRESCRIBED FOR THE "ITALY," ETC....
THE SOVEREIGN DEBT INVESTORS IN ITALY ...have TO TAKE THE SAME MEDICINE...
then AT LEAST when you DICTATE AUSTERITY (necessary) to the Italian People...THEY CAN ACCEPT IT...KNOWING THAT "THEIR BANKSTERS" ARE EATING SOME OF THE LOSS...that they were partly responsible for ...BECAUSE OF THEIR DEALS WITH THE RESPECTIVE POLITICIANS OF THE PIIGS GOVERNMENTS...
that's it...bondholders everywhere...BETTER GET INTO "GOLD!" ...even the dollar won't save you....
flashrob
Europe's Leadership Deficit [View article]
the PRECEDENT was set in the RECENT EU negotiations with Greece...
the Greek Gov AGREED THAT THE "BONDHOLDERS" (READ BANKS) WHO WERE INVESTED IN GREEK SOVEREIGN debt...would TAKE A 50% HAIRCUT...(meaning lose 50% of their investment in Greece).
Now, the AUSTERITY MEASURES would be MORE PALATABLE to the Greek Citizenry IF THEY KNEW that those "BANKSTERS" WOULD "SUFFER...TOO!"
So, THE SAME MEDICINE ...WILL BE PRESCRIBED FOR THE "ITALY," ETC....
THE SOVEREIGN DEBT INVESTORS IN ITALY ...have TO TAKE THE SAME MEDICINE...
then AT LEAST when you DICTATE AUSTERITY (necessary) to the Italian People...THEY CAN ACCEPT IT...KNOWING THAT "THEIR BANKSTERS" ARE EATING SOME OF THE LOSS...that they were partly responsible for ...BECAUSE OF THEIR DEALS WITH THE RESPECTIVE POLITICIANS OF THE PIIGS GOVERNMENTS...
that's it...bondholders everywhere...BETTER GET INTO "GOLD!" ...even the dollar won't save you....
flashrob
The Fed Steers Clear Of Quantitative Easing [View article]
he pretty much indicated to me - without doubt to me -
that the next QE-stimulus can be implemented at "a moments notice."
(specifically, he indicated: the mortgage buyback...which would be huge and "super gov-spending (money printing) inflationary.
So, basically HE SIGNALLED A "BACKSTOP SUPPORT" OF THE MKTS (obviously Gold too in that case).
So, with a "somewhat improvment in earnings" and THAT KIND OF BACKSTOP-UP...
well, we should, with allowing for the usual volatility...doing the old "one step back- TWO STEPS UP...routine...do well.
so, looking good for the MKTS and Gold...going forward...
flashrob
FOMC Preview: Bernanke's Third Press Conference [View article]
the "super committee" WILL FAIL...expect no "spending cuts" with any "real teeth" there...
O'b don't need "Congressional approval" to HAVE BEN PRINT...
getting the picture here:
gonna be THE MOTHER OF ALL QE's GOING FORWARD!!!
flashrob
Ps. great for GOLD and the Stock Mkt!
FOMC Preview: Bernanke's Third Press Conference [View article]
1. Did you really think Bernanke was gonna make something like that public....with O'b trying to distance himself from Wall St....to WIN his election bid...
O'b don't want Ben to "make waves" by announcing GOV INFLATIONARY SPENDING...BUT IN REALITY...
2. Since the CASH-RICH PRIVATE SECTOR won't SPEND to jump-start the economy...THE GOV "HAS TO DO IT." ...you should understand that the MAJOR REASON the ECONOMY is WHERE IT IS RIGHT NOW is due to PAST GOV SPENDING QE PROGRAMS...
the Repubs keep touting that QE DIDN'T WORK..."BUT IT DID" ...we would REALLY BE UP THE CREEK IF THEY HADN'T DONE THE QE GOV SPENDING...it's not about WHERE WE ARE NOW...but the DEEP SH-T WE WOULD HAVE BEEN IN...without ALL THAT GOV SPENDING between Lehman and Jun 2011,
here's the INFLATIONARY SPENDING "HAPPENING AND PLANNED TO HAPPEN ...going forward...
1. The essentially QE program to "backstop" Europe...ya know "overnight bank rates" in dollars backed by the 4 central banks...GB, Swiss, Japan, and of course the Fed....
2. Fed purchase of mortgages...to help jumpstart Real Estate
3. Student Loans ...(one Trillion dollars) ... Fed to absorb differencial so students stop defaulting...
4. Fema budget... Irene...this past "freak storm" MILLLIONS WITHOUT POWER...strapped state budgets...
Conn didn't pay Irene contractors - 600,000 STILL WITHOUT POWER....
5. Damage from Irene...did you forget the roads in Vermont and elsewhere...FED going to have to PRINT/SPEND...
6. OB'S JOBS PROGRAM...if "private sector won't spend" ...OB will get it done somehow...hire teachers, firemen, police...THAT WERE LAID OFF...
good to put some money in some consumer's pockets to SUPPORT CONSUMER RETAIL ECONOMY...
BOTTOM LINE: GOV "WILL PRINT" AND LOTS...
to PAY FOR ALL THIS STUFF...NOBODY ELSE OUT THERE TO DO IT....
flashrob
Ps. So, AS I SAID...YOU'RE ARE GOING TO GET THE "BIGGEST QE PROGRAMS" OF THEM ALL...
Ben just GOT TO DO THE "PRINTING AND INFLATIONARY SPENDING" quietly...so Tea-Party types CAN'T BLAST OB'S ELECTION BID...
THAT'S THE REALITY...
TIME FOR A RALLY "WALL ST."...QE "IS ON THE WAY!!!"
Can The Hope Rally Continue? [View article]
my only taxes are "Real Estate", Sales Taxes, gas, don't use much, don't work, live in big house, no cc debts, spend 2-3 k a month...investments in IRA's ... big gains in mkt are tax free... often "thousands a day."
So...THE ONLY WAY YOU "TAX PEOPLE LIKE ME" is ****** SALES (CONSUMPTION TAX)!
and "I WOULDN'T MIND THIS" because I AM NOT SELFISH!
BUT YOUR POLITICIANS are now advocating "flat tax"!
FLAT TAX is SCAM, but LIKE IN MY CASE, I WILL STILL NOT BE PAYING "MORE!"
neither will DRUG DEALERS, multinationals)...ALL PEOPLE AND BIZ who declare LOW REVS...from working or sales...
so...DEMAND A "CONSUMPTION TAX" SO NO ONE CAN EVADE TAXES...gov THE TAX THEY PAY (weapons, medicare...) WILL JUST BE PAYING ITSELF...
DON'T LET THEM "SCAM YOU" WITH "FLAT TAX NONSENSE"...which POLS TALK UP! JUST A SCAM...
NOBODY "BEATS THE CONSUMPTION TAX"... the ONE THING I have not figured HOW TO BEAT IN THE "TAX GAME!"
GE PAID VERY LITTLE TAXES... in a down economy MOST PEOPLE AND BIZ PAY "MUCH LESS TAXES"
...BUT ALL WOULD PAY...AND GET THE ECONOMY ROLLING AGAIN... if ALL PAID CONSUMPTION TAXES...
NO BIG CORPS NOT PAYING TAXES...because "their books" show THEY HAD NO REVS...
IF THEY PAY "CONSUMPTION TAXES" ...THEY "CAN'T EVADE PAYING THEIR FAIR SHARE" ...etc.
flashrob
Stock Markets Advance On QE3 Hopes [View instapost]
I was greatly shocked some months ago, when listening to one of Ben Bernanke”s Fed testimonials…in which he stated that INFLATION was “not a problem,” and that “core inflation” – that’s what the Fed uses to measure inflation – was only up .1%. (core inflation, as opposed to “real inflation,” excludes food, energy…all the real stuff that much of the average consumer’s income is spent on…)
What the hell, I thought… has this guy filled his gas-tank lately? The price of gasoline had risen .97 cents from this time last year. Being a comparison shopper, I had also estimated that the the average prices in Target had increased about 25% in that same one year. (I shop in Target a lot (and buy a wide variety of items, so it’s a good indicator to me of “real inflation”). The .97 cent increase in the price of gasoline, over the course of a year, is actually about 25%, also. So, there’s verification: cost of food, and cost of gasoline. So, REAL INFLATION has increased about 25% in “just one year!” But, I think you know this, and if you don’t, then someone else must be paying “all your bills.”
Here’s an actual example of an “inflation price increase” at Target.
Yesterday, while shopping, I went to pick up some paper towels (I use a lot of those…dispensers in bath, garage, basement, kitchen.) I always buy several “two packs” of Viva, and the price is 1.48 for each “two roll pack” of quality paper towels. The reason I buy this way: it’s actually “cheaper than the bulk 8-12 packs” …get it: it’s about $9.00 when you buy it this way…as opposed to a 12-pack, for example, which is way more expensive…like 11-12.99…tricky stuff this shopping…but I pay attention to “unit pricing” - which, by-the-way...”most people DON’T SEEM TO NOTICE this kind of “trickery!”
Back to my “real inflation example…” so, I go to get my “2 rolls of deluxe Viva for $1.48 a pack,” and guess what… they are “not there anymore.” What is there, is “2 slightly bigger roll pack of Viva with a PRICE OF $4.99!” Now, at first, I thought “it was a mistake”…the price couldn’t have INFLATION INCREASED…”THAT MUCH!” But it had… I used the “price checker scanner,” and $4.99 was the correct price for the new “two pack of Viva paper towels.” Now, I understand that Target/Viva, maybe hadn’t raised “that price” since last year, and so were “just catching up,” But still…that’s a “huge jump in price!”
So, that’s some about pricing with respect to “REAL INFLATION!”
Now… on credit cards.
One of my “major credit cards (and I rarely use major credit cards, except for big ticket purchases online or eating out, etc…), and I ALWAYS PAY OFF THE BALANCE IN FULL EACH MONTH, so that I don’t have to pay any “interest charges.”
Essentially, I “never cared about “interest rate charges” on credit cards…since I rarely ever pay any - have, like an 850 rating, or should, etc. - I never really looked at the statements in detail…just pay off the full balance online, or by mail. Anyway, I got behind in opening my mail, and opened this cc bill, and noticed it was “just about due.” Well, I didn’t want to screw up my perfect credit record, etc., so I proceed to pay off the whole balance…but as I was doing this – and I was glad I noticed this – IF I HAD BEEN “ONE DAY LATE” in making my payment… “MY INTEREST RATE WOULD HAVE GONE FROM ABOUT 14% TO 29%...just for being “one day late!”
So, it occurred to me: HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE PROBABLY “ONE DAY LATE” …for whatever reason…mail delay, misplaced mail at home…there are lots of reasons you could be late with a payment…even if “you have, or make a lot of money.” AND ONCE YOU HAVE “SLIPPED UP,” for whatever reason…THEY HAVE YOU AT THAT NEW “SUPER HIGH RATE.” Now, in my case that wouldn’t have “made much difference.” My recent charges about 2500. since the last billing…I just paid off in full…so a huge increase in the “interest rate” just makes my credit rating shaky…but is of no real consequence to me…other than that, because I always pay off the balance in full.
I could easily get along with just debit cards…but then you have to “keep checking the cash balance in your accounts, etc.” so you don’t overdraw your account, etc…and I don’t want to pay for overdraft, so I keep a few major cc cards… is the easier way to go for me.
So, in conclusion: I’m estimating that A MAJORITY OF CONSUMERS are paying “on average” OVER 20% and maybe even 29%...”UNBELIEVEABLE!” …because as the months go by…you’re “bound to slip up and be late” …and it “only takes one time…” and they got you!
So, “THAT’S YOUR REAL INFLATION METER” along with the one, I previously mentioned: your local service-station pump price for a gallon of gas!”
Two of the greatest “non-bull-spin” meter-type indicators of REAL INFLATION…the inflation that AFFECTS YOU!
Not some “phony government statistic” you heard in the media, like Ben’s “core-inflation” hype nonsense.
Note: a couple other points…
The Federal Reserve and Credit Card agencies…publish statistics on “interest rate statistics.” I’m not trusting those… kind of like the misleading “unemployment statistics” they give you: they “don’t include people” WHO ARE NO LONGER ELIGIBLE TO COLLECT BENEFITS…BUT ARE “STILL UNEMPLOYED!” “getting the picture here” …it’s called: “making sh_tty numbers” LOOK GOOD, OR NOT AS BAD AS THEY REALLY ARE!!!
So, when the “CREDIT CARD INTEREST RATES” start to “go the other way” …then I’ll maybe start to believe INFLATION is diminishing…until then … I KNOW THAT PRO-FINANCIAL PEOPLE aren’t stupid…THEY ARE PRICING IN “REAL INFLATION” INTO THOSE CREDIT-CARD REVENUES TO “OFFSET REAL INFLATION!” …and so that is the pro-financial people INDICATING TO YOU THAT WE HAVE “REAL INFLATION” and those rates are expected to KEEP ON INCREASING…which means the Pro-financial people: DON’T REALLY BELIEVE WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A “FINANCIAL RECOVERY!... bad days now and “to continue” is their message, etc.
Also, watch, the “price of gasoline, too” …though the gov can “influence that more.” But “credit cards” is “private financials” so THAT’S EVEN A BETTER MEASURE OF “REAL INFLATION.”
flashrob
GLD
Shades Of 2008 All Over Again (Though This Time In Europe) [View article]
DONALD TRUMP ACCEPTS GOLD AS COLLATERAL ON A REAL-ESTATE DEAL!
finance.yahoo.com/news...
flashrob
Shades Of 2008 All Over Again (Though This Time In Europe) [View article]
dollar/euro/gold comparison...and the "big winner"...GOLD...
finance.yahoo.com/q/ta...
flashrob