flashrob

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    • Mon Jul 28th 10:11 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Congress' Housing Rescue Act: What's the Hurry?
      let's say you put 20% down on a 500,000 house...(you're in for 100,000)...you did this because the marketeers (didn't realize that the chain-letter was about to run out of buyers) told you that your property would appreciate 20% in one year and your house would be worth 600,000, giving you a "theoretical"... profit of 100%. (you invested 100k of your own and your property appreciated 100k). That WAS THE PLAN, however the Ponzi scheme ran out of new buyers...and your house dropped 30% from the 500k original price...Now, your house is only worth 350k...meaning you LOST YOUR WHOLE 100K downpayment (all your money) AND 50K OF THE BANKS MONEY...

      the above is a rough but reasonable example of what's happening to MANY across the country.

      Now, here's the RUB...with the Proposed Housing Package...

      1. It will give you "renegotiated&quo... lower payments...SO YOU DON'T GO INTO FORECLOSURE...

      2. BUT THE PROBLEM IS: THOSE NEW LOWER MORTGAGE PAYMENTS ARE STILL BASED ON A "500K" HOUSE...that is NOW WORTH ONLY 350K (and headed LOWER)...

      3. So, you'll take THE NEW LOWER MORTGAGE PAYMENTS...so you don't have to move ahead of time...but what is the "investment incentive" in this for you...

      your house WILL NOT RECOVER your 100K LOSS...THE BANK is just FORESTALLING ITS 50K LOSS...which will keep INCREASING...

      4. So, you are in a NO RECOVERY situation...AND SO IS THE BANK (fnm, fre, or OTHER).

      5. This is JUST A STALL...not a REAL SOLUTION...

      6. You, will move and DEFAULT when it's convenient OR YOU HAVE TO (job transfer/loss, etc.) ...BECAUSE YOU'LL WILL NEVER RECOVER YOUR 100K LOSS...

      SO, THERE IS "NO REAL INCENTIVE FOR YOU TO STAY" IN A HOUSE that
      you will NEVER MAKE A PROFIT ON.

      7. REAL ESTATE has to TANK TERRIFICALLY to LEVELS probably well more than 50% to even have a chance of garnering a SIGNIFICANT NUMBER NEW BUYERS to turn the recovery tide.

      ...and this HOUSING SUPPORT BILL ...trys TO ONCE AGAIN FORESTALL ...

      EVERYONE "TAKING THEIR MEDICINE!"

      "SIGNIFICANT LOSSES FOR BOTH BORROWERS AND LENDERS...all those who were

      part of the REAL ESTATE RUNUP PONZI (CHAIN LETTER) GAME...

      all this scheme did was PUT THE ENTIRE ECONOMY AT RISK...and in disruption...

      screwing up the "rest of the population" who were NOT MUCH INVOLVED or aware

      of THE BANKS GAMBLE...on what looked like "EASY MONEY" instead of Old BANK style CONSERVATIVE MODEST REVENUE STREAM!

      HOUSING HAS TO "TANK" REALLY BIG TIME ...LIKE OVER 50% for a chance of recovery...(to garner a sufficient number of buyers).

      both homeowners and LENDERS are in DENIAL about this AND PUSHING GOV TO SAVE THEM AND THEIR PONZI SCHEME FAST EAST MONEY...

      AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN...

      we go DOWN...you already know "your" house did...BUT THE "LENDERS" (BANKS) ARE STILL SCRAMBLING FOR A "MAGIC BULLET!"

      there ain't one...so the gov is doing the "get ready" to take MANY OVER...

      FINANCIAL SECTOR...pretty much TOAST...for most!

      flashrob
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 23rd 13:23 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Financials Future Still Uncertain
      some backup on this from Congress...

      www.infowars.net/artic...

      flashrob
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 23rd 12:20 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      General Discussion on SKF
      here's the link for last post:

      biz.yahoo.com/rb/08072...

      flashrob


      On Jul 23 12:18 PM flashrob wrote:

      > EXPECT THE MANY OF THE "REST" to be similar.
      >
      > biz.yahoo.com/rb/08072......
      >
      > flashrob
      View forum topic »
    • Wed Jul 23rd 12:18 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      General Discussion on SKF
      EXPECT THE MANY OF THE "REST" to be similar.

      biz.yahoo.com/rb/08072......

      flashrob


      On Jul 23 10:09 AM flashrob wrote:

      > NOW, that the SO-CALLED FINANCIAL RALLY IS FLAT...and forthcoming
      > Bank writedowns will lower the financials..
      >
      > watch AS "BIG MONEY" INSURE THEMSELVES by LOADING UP ON SKF...<br/>
      >
      > just a matter of time...AFTER-all:
      >
      > IT WAS BIG MONEY WHO "DROVE SKF" OVER 200 OVER LAST MONTH...they
      > didn't think the financial earnings THAT WERE ABOUT TO BE ANNOUNCED...were
      >
      >
      > going to be positive...WITH HELP FROM THE FED...THINGS GOT SWITCHED
      > AROUND...
      >
      > and the HEAD-FAKE RALLY...well THEY GOT "ANOTHER CHANCE" TO SELL
      > INTO
      >
      > A WAVE OF "NOVICE HERD BUYERS"...
      >
      > now THEY'LL BE BACK TO BUYING "SKF" as BANK STOCK PUMP MONEY seeks
      > out
      > other more LESS RISKY AND MORE STABLE INVESTMENTS...
      >
      > FLASHROB
      View forum topic »
    • Wed Jul 23rd 10:09 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      General Discussion on SKF
      NOW, that the SO-CALLED FINANCIAL RALLY IS FLAT...and forthcoming Bank writedowns will lower the financials..

      watch AS "BIG MONEY" INSURE THEMSELVES by LOADING UP ON SKF...

      just a matter of time...AFTER-all:

      IT WAS BIG MONEY WHO "DROVE SKF" OVER 200 OVER LAST MONTH...they didn't think the financial earnings THAT WERE ABOUT TO BE ANNOUNCED...were

      going to be positive...WITH HELP FROM THE FED...THINGS GOT SWITCHED AROUND...

      and the HEAD-FAKE RALLY...well THEY GOT "ANOTHER CHANCE" TO SELL INTO

      A WAVE OF "NOVICE HERD BUYERS"...

      now THEY'LL BE BACK TO BUYING "SKF" as BANK STOCK PUMP MONEY seeks out
      other more LESS RISKY AND MORE STABLE INVESTMENTS...

      FLASHROB
      View forum topic »
    • Wed Jul 23rd 10:00 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      General Discussion on SKF
      EITHER THE WAY THE BANKS LOSE: LENDERS "TO EAT LOSSES!"

      Not enough FED backing: AND THEY EXPERIENCE COSTLY COURT FORECLOSURES...which just STEMS the TIDE of DECLINE in Real Estate...while these FUTURE EMPTY HOUSES are TIED UP IN COURT.

      Plenty of Fed Backing: AND THEY "EAT" THE WRITEDOWNS...more DEBT TO COME on Banks Books AS THEY SELL THEIR LOSSES...

      LOSE LOSE SITUATION FOR "BANKS AND FINANCIALS"

      flashrob
      View forum topic »
    • Sun Jul 20th 15:03 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why I'm Committed to the UltraShort Financials ETF
      add this from CBS over the weekend...

      www.cbsnews.com/storie...

      flashrob


      On Jul 20 12:11 PM flashrob wrote:

      > ...notice SKF on the chart...last two days...
      >
      > The only reason for the "financial sector" being UP this week is
      > due to the SEC interfering WHILE THE GAME WAS IN PLAY...with THE
      > SHORTS...
      >
      > ESSENTIALLY FORCING THEM TO BUY STOCK AND PROTECT AND DRIVE UP THE
      > FINANCIAL SECTOR...
      >
      > this is SETTLING DOWN NOW...as EVIDENCED BY SKF hovering near 135-140
      > the LAST TWO DAYS...
      >
      > AS THE "SHORT COVERING BASED RALLY OF THE FINANANCIAL SECTOR" PETERS
      > OUT...and the Pros and Big Money ARE NOT STUPID ENOUGH TO THINK<br/>
      >
      > THE FINANCIALS HAVE GOOD INVESTMENT POTENTIAL...
      >
      > SKF will RECOVER and GO EVEN HIGHER!!!
      >
      > looks like we HIT BOTTOM...unless the Fed/Sec or someone CAN PULL
      > ANOTHER RABBIT OUT OF THE HAT.
      >
      > SKF should start GOING BACK UP!
      >
      > finance.yahoo.com/q/bc...=
      >
      > flashrob
      View article »
    • Sun Jul 20th 12:11 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why I'm Committed to the UltraShort Financials ETF
      ...notice SKF on the chart...last two days...

      The only reason for the "financial sector" being UP this week is due to the SEC interfering WHILE THE GAME WAS IN PLAY...with THE SHORTS...

      ESSENTIALLY FORCING THEM TO BUY STOCK AND PROTECT AND DRIVE UP THE FINANCIAL SECTOR...

      this is SETTLING DOWN NOW...as EVIDENCED BY SKF hovering near 135-140 the LAST TWO DAYS...

      AS THE "SHORT COVERING BASED RALLY OF THE FINANANCIAL SECTOR" PETERS OUT...and the Pros and Big Money ARE NOT STUPID ENOUGH TO THINK

      THE FINANCIALS HAVE GOOD INVESTMENT POTENTIAL...

      SKF will RECOVER and GO EVEN HIGHER!!!

      looks like we HIT BOTTOM...unless the Fed/Sec or someone CAN PULL ANOTHER RABBIT OUT OF THE HAT.

      SKF should start GOING BACK UP!

      finance.yahoo.com/q/bc...=

      flashrob
      View article »
    • Sun Jul 20th 10:27 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Selling the Short Sellers Short: Another Sign of Trouble
      why MOST banks WILL FAIL...

      and they ARE "no LONGER" A GOOD INVESTMENT...


      ...unless we withdraw from WTO and Nafta, to MAINTAIN A LOCAL HIGH-PAYING JOB BASE, drop Real Estate across the board to about 50% of what it is now, cut government spending drastically...AND EVEN IF WE DID ALL THESE THINGS the transition would still be tough...

      WELL MOST OF THAT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN...so MANY BANKS WILL FAIL (sustained in appearance by the Fed...but they won't have much investment potential).

      Consumers will get laid off IN GREATER NUMBERS AS BUSINESS'S CUT BACK...so they can show less than analyst's expected losses (mostly due to lay offs...who are also those people who will not now be shopping at Target, etc.)

      Get the picture...WE'RE GOING DOWN...and the BANKING SECTOR is "LEADING THE CHARGE" FOR THE MOST PART.

      Now maybe Obama has a solution, BUT I DON'T THINK SO.

      So, IT'S RIDICULOUS TO ME TO WATCH THE "FINANCIAL SECTOR" RALLYING when

      THERE IS NO REAL CHANCE FOR IT'S RECOVERY!

      there's a lot more I could say, on fundamental economic issues...BUT THIS IS PRETTY MUCH OUR FUTURE.

      NO REAL-ESTATE RECOVERY

      NO BANKING RECOVERY

      MORE TAXES

      CONSUMER SPENDING CONTINUING TO DECLINE

      MORE JOB LOSSES TO OVERSEAS

      OIL continuing to be the new BLACK GOLD...WHICH MEANS AFTER A SHORT HIATUS ...PRICES WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO CLIMB...

      all in all, not a good picture. THESE ARE THE UNDERLYING PROBLEMS...

      SO MOST RALLIES ON THE MKT...LIKE THE ONE ON THE FINANCIAL SECTOR of the last few days...

      ARE BASED ON ILLUSION.

      So, my take is SKF looking real good going forward because MOST BANKS ARE HEADED FURTHER IN LOSS TERRITORY.

      FLASHROB
      View article »
    • Fri Jul 18th 18:58 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Selling the Short Sellers Short: Another Sign of Trouble
      I could agree, about the speculators taking advantage of naked shorting...BUT THE TIMING OF THIS SMACKS OF SEC MEDDLING IN THE MKTS...

      THEY SHOULD HAVE ANNOUNCE A FUTURE DATE FOR THIS RULE TO BE APPLIED ...not suddenly SPRUNG ON US
      IN THE MIDDLE OF A PLAY...

      LIKE CHANGING THE RULES IN A FOOTBALL GAME WHEN THE GUY IS RUNNING WITH THE BALL AND ABOUT TO SCORE A TOUCHDOWN...

      DO YOU CHANGE THE RULES TO INVALIDATE THE PLAY IN PROGRESS...

      I DON'T THINK SO...YOU WAIT 'TIL THE GAME IS FINISHED ...THEN CHANGE THE RULES...TO BE FAIR TO ALL...

      FLASHROB
      View article »
    • Sun Apr 27th 15:57 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Market Domino Effect: Staying Ahead of the Curve
      it's very difficult to "change someone's mind" when they want to believe what they want to believe, despite all your best arguments.

      Knowing that "you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink,"

      doesn't absolve me from, at least in my estimation, from making sure that threre's water in the place I'm leading him to....

      regards,

      flashrob
      View article »
    • Sun Apr 27th 14:49 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Market Domino Effect: Staying Ahead of the Curve
      give you guys a break...from me...not my stance!

      check this out!

      www.nytimes.com/2008/0...

      regards,

      flashrob
      View article »
    • Sun Apr 27th 14:12 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Market Domino Effect: Staying Ahead of the Curve
      ...sorry, I meant to be clearer in that last...

      many of those promised "hi-tech" jobs that were supposed to replace the "mfr jobs" (so called lower level jobs) that were lost due to us jumping onboard the WTO/NAFTA express...

      Well, many of those jobs are, SURPRISE, SURPRISE, finally, now, SURFACING...ONLY THEY ARE SURFACING IN "INDIA," for example.

      My point being, WHO AND WHAT are going to SHORE-UP and recover the U.S. Real Estate mkt - foreigners "on the cheap, YA THINK!"

      Also, one LITTLE CAVEAT ON THE FINANCIALS...

      who in their "right mind" thinks the financials are A BUY AT THESE LEVELS???

      Did you SOMEHOW OVERLOOK the FACT that:

      1. Future Earnings Prospects are bad FOR MANY!!!

      a. Credit Qualifications HAVE TIGHTENED...no cyclical bounceback on "loose ARMs" ...gone, gone, never to be repeated...so less profitable loans made to fewer. How does that look for earnings, and beating comparable quarters last year...NOT FOR YEARS, IF EVER, I THINK!

      b. FEWER LOANS, because the "pink slips" HAVEN'T BEEN DELIVERED YET...so the consumer is still BREATHIN' HIS LAST...until many get their pink slips, STARTING THIS SUMMER, I figure...

      c. HIGHER ENERGY COSTS...FUNNY HOW OIL KEEPS ON GOING UP when reserves are in better and better shape each month...

      Maybe that's because THE REST OF THE WORLD is not paying THAT MUCH MORE FOR OIL...IT'S ONLY US!

      THE PRICE OF OIL (in U.S. dollars) IS ONLY GOING UP SKY HIGH IN THE U.S....this is due to the "dollar's" decline, because of Bush's War and the gov PRINTING MONEY like it's Monopoly were playing at.

      (Oil is going up in other countries in Europe, Asia, etc. BUT MORE REASONABLY for them... because of China's increased growth, etc. BUT, IT IS FLYING UP IN THE U.S. ...not becuase of lower supplies and competition over it...BUT MOSTLY BECAUSE OF THE "ever weakening dollar," BECAUSE WE ARE PRINTING TOO MUCH MONEY!!!

      and the MOST IMPORTANT POINT ABOUT THE "FINANCIALS!"...

      They HAVE REDUCED PROSPECTS, going forward for PROFITS...

      a. lets not forget THAT THEY WOULD HAVE A TOUGH TIME going forward because of less customers (due layoffs of GOOD JOBS, etc...the kind of people who even get mortages, etc.)

      b. tighter LENDING STANDARDS...

      c. but, the BIGGEST REASON ...they won't be doing well for years LET ALONE surpassing LAST YEARS QTRS...IS:

      they (MOST) are CARRYING (and paying premium interest on) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF DEBT...

      do you think that MULTI-BILLION DOLLAR DEBT of MANY is going to quietly DISAPPEAR...well the
      marketeer "spin doctors" ARE PROBABLY HOPING that YOU BEING THE "HERD," won't NOTICE A LITTLE THING LIKE THAT...

      Afterall, we have REACHED BOTTOM, HAVEN'T WE (maybe), and the

      FINANCIALS HAVE NO WAY TO GO...BUT UP...FROM HERE...(bout how the spin goes, doesn't it?)

      Like the emphasis will be on NEW PROSPECTS AND REVS, etc...

      BUT GUESS WHAT...there are still BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF BAD DEBT (with interest)...

      So, in REALITY, will someone tell me WHY FINANCIALS ARE CONSIDERED

      positions TO START ACCUMULATING...

      IS EVERYONE THAT DUMB???

      Apple is bounding up, Nvda should pretty soon (two of my favorites)...AND I THINK THEY HAVE A TOUGH TIME GOING FORWARD IN THIS RECESSION...but the

      main thing they have going for them...IS NOT HAVING BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF SUB-PRIME LOSSES TO "PAY BACK," in ADDITION to a "weak economy" going forward...in order to make decent earnings.

      I just can't believe the NETWORKS talking UP the FINANCIALS...


      most are going to be WEAK for YEARS before they get out from under that bad debt, EVEN WHEN THE RECESSION IS OVER...(not anytime soon, I suspect....) they'll STILL BE PAYING OFF THAT BAD DEBT FOR YEARS....

      i'd SHORT financials HEAVILY (most of those with lots of sub-prime, etc...especially AS HOUSING PRICES CONTINUE TO FALL, there will likely be MORE WRITEDOWNS....)...only reason I don't TOO MUCH is there ARE A LOT OF IDIOTS who "buy the spin" and drive them up...

      eventually they'll tank, but I don't want to get "run down in the stampede" EVEN WHEN IT APPEARS the HERD is "heading for the cliff" and NOT THE RIVER.

      REGARDS,

      flashrob
      View article »
    • Sun Apr 27th 13:09 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Market Domino Effect: Staying Ahead of the Curve
      ...by the way, I don't think the mkts will collapse (thanks to at least one good move by Bernanke with Bear Stearns, that one I agree with, but he should have been RAISING INTEREST RATES not lowering them...another time....)

      ...but believe there ain't NO UP for the 2nd half of the year. That nonsense is what MANY OF THE HERD ARE BETTIN' ON!

      When, your neighbors start losing their jobs and houses, then that "2nd half" recovery WILL BE MOVED "FORWARD," and probably indefinitely (the marketeers are probably working on the "spin" for that, right now and "frantically"... ...LIKE KEEP THE LID ON TIL' THE ELECTION IS OVER...Bush can't "take any more!")

      Like when the "financials" are laying off "thousands" of high-paying jobs (which ain't the same as "Walmart" jobs...ya know...the ones the gov all links together in the "labor statistics" ...like were supposed to believe there's not much difference). Not just the financials, but those "high-tech" jobs that were supposed to replace our "lost mfr" jobs, with Nafta and the WTO. Well, bottom line:

      Whose going to RECOVER REAL-ESTATE for us...

      maybe, "hi-techies" from India, China, etc. will MOVE HERE and buy up those empty houses...like they don't get paid as much by the "new MULTINATIONALS pay scales..." but heck, WITH THE DOLLAR dropping (like 50% against the Brazilian Real, no less in seven years or so) hey THEIR LOWER SALARIES (paid by the multinationals who, at least many of them, still keep their Headquarters here in the U.S.) WILL DO JUST FINE WITH THE "higher standard credit checks" of U.S.
      lenders.

      So, it ain't ALL BAD NOW...IS it....

      regards,

      flashrob
      View article »
    • Sun Apr 27th 12:46 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Market Domino Effect: Staying Ahead of the Curve
      I pretty much agree with the main forecast. The MARKET is either in "denial," or trying to manipulate the average guy on the "way down!" Probably, some of both!

      Remember HOW MANY TIMES since "last summer" the financials had to take ADDITIONAL WRITE-DOWNS....

      Do, you really think you can trust the "positive spin doctors" over the UNIVERSITY ECONOMISTS vs. the economists who are BEHOLDEN TO THE SYSTEM...(gov, big biz, etc.)

      I trust the academics on THIS ONE...like the "marketeer spin-doctors" DIDN'T SEE THE "DOT-COM" debacle...then, they didn't see the "sub-prime" fiasco (and I don't think the financials HAVE "FULLY" COME CLEAN YET!). So, yeah I've been going "LONG" lately on these "phony polyanna bear rallies" - if the idiots want to "drive the mkt up" in denial...hey, "up is up," so I ONLY DAYTRADE THE SHORTERM AND "OUT BY END OF DAY!"

      best, I can see...these days....

      regards,

      Flashrob
      View article »
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