flashrob

OceanFreight: Risky, But Deserving of Consideration

Geez, they're diluting the stock, BUT WHY IT'S GOOD!

...here's a simple point... one of the main criticisms of "shorts" is stock dilution...

...my point is that...IT DEPENDS...on why a company is doing this...so

a VERY GOOD use of share-dilution is to RAISE CAPITAL... so you can grow the company... often in liew of BORROWING AT HIGH INTEREST RATES from commercial lenders...who are obviously demanding "high rates" in these "worldwide economic downturn times" ...and also because of the "uncertainty of the global econ future (MAINLY IN THE WEST)...where most of these lenders are...and because they set rates mainly in accordance with how they expect the U.S. AND EUROPEAN economies to perform...well, interest rates are LIKELY to remain very high for the foreseeable future.

So, SHARE DILUTION is being used by MANY COMPANIES to RAISE CAPITAL TO GROW...especially when THEY HAVE GOOD REASON to KNOW they have a MARKET which WILL SUPPORT SUCH GROWTH.

Many U.S. AND EUROPEAN COMPANIES ...are facing CONTINUING DECLINES with respect to "such growing mkts" and they have LITTLE JUSTIFICATION TO EXPAND...

Now, the DRY BULK SECTOR has great reason to EXPAND...

the RAPID AND STEADY GROWTH OF THE EMERGING MKTS...gives them a very good reason to ramp up expansion... because they will have "increasing customers" for their services...DESPITE DECLINES IN U.S. AND EUROPEAN MKTS...

so, here's an example of DRYS doing a "share dilution" in line with the model of financing growth that I have indicated.

www.streetinsider.com/...

old news you might say, but my point is "view it in light of my post...."

good move by those in the sector LIKE DRYS AND OCNF!

also, cheaper to finance expansion/growth than paying down and having "high-interest" loans from western-centric commercial lenders.

regards,

flashrob

OceanFreight: Risky, But Deserving of Consideration

ocean frt OCNF on the move...up 18% over last week...

finance.yahoo.com/news...

just moving on UP...

AND WE STILL HAVE EARNINGS ON 5AUG....

flashrob

OceanFreight: Risky, But Deserving of Consideration

I didn't get into OCNF and sector, because I thought they were going to have blow-out earnings when I came in a few weeks ago...

I'm more interested in the BIG PICTURE!

and that is:

this U.S. EURO RALLY is "just gravy!

without it, even if the U.S. rally stalls, even if China stocks go down (you don't think the new middle class in China is heavily invested there, do you?)
most of the investment in China is in funds bought/sold by foreigners like in ETFS ...like fxi (bullish)...fxp (bearish) on China stocks...

but the real for sure gain is in COMMODITIES...oil, iron ore, etc. these will INCREASE regardless of foreigners dumping China stocks if a U.S. RALLY stalls because they are still "western centric" in their thinking that CHINA will slow without western consumer purchases....

China WILL CONTINUE AND EVEN RAMP-UP MORE to make use of their "huge dollar holdings" before the dollar starts a decline...TO BUY UP USE/STORE ALL THE COMMODITIES (hard-assets, not declining paper U.S. dollars) AS QUICKLY AS THEY CAN!

...they see the writing on the wall...and its "use dollars while they still have significant value, etc.

so, a RALLY STALL OR REVERSAL...WILL NOT MUCH EFFECT OCNF and sector for any great length of time...pull backs in rally might drop stocks/sector for a brief time (that's if the rally fizzles...and it don't look like that right now.)

but, my point: Ocnf and sector WILL MAKE GREAT REVS GOING FORWARD because of the China move with the dollar and replacing it with "hard commodities" using some, stockpiling some, etc.

So, that's why Ocnf and sector HAVE SOME OF THE BEST PROSPECTS GOING FORWARD...

they do not NEED A SUSTAINED U.S. RALLY TO RECOVER AND GROW...

THEY WIN EITHER WAY...U.S. EURO RALLY IS JUST XTRA GRAVY GOING FORWARD...

so, if rally in west falters, most u.s./stocks will again retreat...but after a brief time the mkt will get my points about OCNF and the drybulk sector BEING ABLE TO GROW/PROFIT BIG TIME...without much support from western mkts/rallies...

that's the BIG PICTURE!

FLASHROB

OceanFreight: Risky, But Deserving of Consideration

...this ISN'T A TEMP RALLY...this is the big "bounce off the bottom rally" ...and don't look back, etc.

despite, plenty of negative economic news, their are "increasing bright spots" and if you haven't noticed this is a "steady rally" already underway for a couple weeks...

we didn't give back the GAINS in the Mar09 rally more than 25% across the boards...DOW 6500 TO DOW 8000...(BALLPARK FIGS) and in the last 3 wks the DOW has picked up about another 1000pts...

GOT IT...IT'S THE 2ND LEG OF A RECOVERY TREND!!!

so, everybody but you "shorts" pretty much knows WHAT'S UNDERWAY...

Now, as the side money comes in... stocks which were justifiably sold down big-time...will start to go up STEADILY...

this is because the ANALYSTS were not EXPECTING SUCH STRENGTH in China (mainly) GOING ALL OUT TO REPLACE THE U.S. CONSUMER...as the main driver of their economy...

the dry-bulk carriers will HAVE INCREASING DEMAND from the "emerging mkt" players, like China, Brazil, India...who are preparing to INCREASINGLY DISENGAGE FROM DEPENDENCE ON WESTERN MKTS AND CONSUMERS...

this MEANS the dry bulk carriers WILL HAVE EVER INCREASING DEMAND FOR THEIR SHIPS...

now the CHINA RALLY...is not a "temp thing" and I'm gonna tell you WHY...

CHINA is sitting on "about a trillion" in U.S. DOLLARS via their history of funding our debt via the purchase of U.S. TREASURIES...

they're IN A BIND...because they know with the stimulus plans in THE U.S. AND EUROPE are increased deficit/borrowing AND FURTHER PUTS DOWNWARD pressure on the value of the dollar.

Now, the CHINESE have lots of dollars, so they don't want to see the DOLLAR DECLINE FURTHER...so they have to KEEP SUPPORTING THE DOLLAR...they can't suddenly stop...or THEIR OWN U.S. DOLLARS WILL DROP...

SO, they came up with a SMART PLAN...and here it is:

keep CURRENT LEVELS OF SUPPORT FOR THE DOLLAR...BUT: PRINT TONS OF "YUAN" their currency (and the difference they have plenty of reason to "print money" because a currency being printed should mainly be done because it "represents" growth/productivity in your economy (which is not the case in the West, we're devaluing the dollar by printing them too, but we're in DECLINE, so the value of our currency has downward pressure on it. (Euro, too)

So, here's what the Chinese are doing: PRINTING XTRA YUAN, BUYING DOLLARS WITH IT...THEN GOING TO AUSTRALIA, BRAZIL, INDIA, etc. and BUYING UP COMMODITIES "AS FAST AS THEY CAN!"

...this is to essentially DIMINISH THERE U.S. DOLLAR HOLDINGS...without DRIVING THE DOLLAR DOWN...which would also hurt them...

this is HOW THEY "GET SOME USE OUT OF THEIR DOLLAR SUPPORT STAKE" ...so their "printing presses are RUNNING FULL STEAM AHEAD...

get it IT'S A "SEA-CHANGE" MOVE by the Chinese to get the "millstone" of the U.S. dollar OFF THEIR BACK.

now this means that GROWTH in CHINA will KEEP INCREASING...so it's not a temp thing, because commodities and shipping were cheap...

this trend is reflected by the UNEXPECTED RISE IN THE BDI...and that will continue...because CHINA...IS JUST GETTING STARTED...they have to UNLOAD AN AWFUL LOAD OF U.S. DOLLARS...

so, regardless of DECLINES IN U.S./EUROPEAN mkts/stocks/currencies...

...OCNF and the other dry bulks will HAVE EVER INCREASING DEMAND/REVS GOING FORWARD...

see, how IT IS...AND WILL CONTINUE!

that's why I'm in this stock/sector. This is one of the best potential plays for REAL RECOVERY based on REVS INCREASING.

We, are on the "comeback trail" and it's not due to bull-spin driving up many other stocks with less potential for recovery...which are being touted by the media...as have "less losses than expected."

Ocnf and the sector HAVE REAL POTENTIAL REVS COMING IN to justify the stock price recovering.

that's the general picture...

flashrob

OceanFreight: Risky, But Deserving of Consideration

I don't expect OCNF to have a great year...this year...but I do expect them to turn a profit...which is more than many companies will be doing for this year. LIKE THERE'S A WORLDWIDE ECON DOWNTURN and Ocnf is weathering it, AND HAS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAN MOST COMPANIES IN ADAPTING TO THE "SEA-CHANGES" THAT ARE OCCURRING IN THE GLOBAL ECON, ETC....

they got pretty good OPERATING REV and so with the EMERGING MKT DEMAND...which the few analysts anticipated...they will be back on track...already turned a profit in 1st qtr...which is better than many companies...BUT THE BIG THING IS...they have
GREAT POTENTIAL GOING FORWARD...due to China and the rest of the emerging mkts REPLACING DECLINES IN THE U.S., AND EUROPEAN MKTS.

most U.S. AND EUROPEAN COMPANIES are not gonna crack the Chinese mkt...THE CHINESE CAN DO ALMOST EVERYTHING THEMSELVES...

BUT THEY DO NEED "LOTS OF RAW MATERIALS" FROM OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD...they may be able to overcome the loss of the U.S. consumer...BUT THEY STILL NEED RAW MATERIALS...

and that's what OCNF does transports those raw materials...

so, the U.S. AND EUROPEAN ECONOMIES CAN TANK...become like ARGENTINA...

but OCNF and many of the other carriers WILL STILL HAVE LOTS OF BIZ AND ROOM TO GROW...

something you can't see in that logic...you're not only "short" the stock... you're SHORT on vision.


flashrob

OceanFreight: Risky, But Deserving of Consideration

...the simple facts of the matter are:

in 2008 Ocnf had annual earning in excess of 2.00
and that was including a losing 4th qtr

in 2009 they already had a positive 1st qtr...YES THE EARNINGS WERE ONLY .13 ...BUT CONSIDERING THE SEVERITY OF THE WORLD WIDE DOWNTURN...IT WAS PREDICTABLE

so, going forward in 2009...I'M NEGATIVE ON A "WORLDWIDE ECONOMIC REBOUND...media, pundits, etc. are FAR TOO OPTIMISTIC...but I do believe we are COMING OFF THE BOTTOM...

NOW, the problem is NOT ALL STOCKS OR ECONOMIES WILL RECOVER...

BUT THE "EMERGING MKTS" LED BY CHINA will be THE BIG REPLACEMENT IN OCEAN FREIGHT DEMAND AND REVENUE...

so, it's should be obvious TO ANYONE WHO THINKS THEY KNOW SOMETHING ABOUT GLOBAL ECONOMICS ON DOWN TO THE INDIVIDUAL COMPANY LEVELS...not only what sectors will SURVIVE AND PROSPER...BUT ALSO WHAT COMPANIES...

THIS MIGHT NOT BE A BANNER YEAR FOR OCNF...but with the BDI indicating things are moving back to normal (at least for drybulk...and based, must I say it again, THE EMERGING MKTS LED BY CHINA REPLACING (and than some) the DECLINES IN OCEAN TRANSPORT DEMAND FOR THE U.S. AND EUROPEAN economies, countries, sectors, and individual companies)

what is so hard for you to see...

Ocnf and the rest of dry bulk ARE ALREADY RAPIDLY RECOVERING...as evidenced by the BDI...while the U.S. AND EUROPE, JAPAN, ETC....
LANGUISH...and only some parts of which will recover...

Ocnf will be back with more 2.00 plus earnings years...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THIS YEAR...in which they are staging a MUCH BETTER RECOVERY...than most other segments/sectors/compa... have a chance to do, GIVEN THAT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SHAKE-OUT in these other sectors/companies...(not the emerging mkts, by the way) in BANKING, RETAIL, AUTOS, and the other consumer based enterprises that WERE THE FORMER BASE OF MOST OF OCEAN FRT CARRIAGE.

we're looking to 2010 and beyond...and OCNF won't have a great 2009...but it won't be a company touting that "WE LOST LESS THAN EXPECTED"...which is what your getting from most other sectors/stocks based in U.S., Europe, Japan...

something that's OVER YOUR HEAD HERE??? looks simple enough to me...

Ocnf gonna grow BIG TIME in the future...thats why YA global WANTED IN...

flashrob

OceanFreight: Risky, But Deserving of Consideration

on SHARE DILUTION ...here's the skinny!

most people think of share-dilution as a NEGATIVE...and with good reason...

we've all seen instances of SOME COMPANIES in effect: "diluting their stock"... some examples: issuing "employee stock options," in lieu of pay raises, comes to mind. They also might just put more stock in the float, etc. Now, these moves depend on "what the company is TRYING TO DO, AND WHY!"

...if they are doing this just to "funnel money" to insiders...then that's not a good thing...and the are plenty of cases of that!

However, let's look at Ocnf...

1. first of all, they have secured the right (approved by shareholders) to issue up to a billion shares of stock.
Now, first of all, that DOES NOT MEAN they will, and secondly, WHY WOULD THEY DO THIS and "why do they want this option!"

here's a different take, than just "funneling money to insiders" and screwing the "outside shareholders in the float (stock on the open mkt).

let's look at recent Ocnf activities:

let's use the recent YA Global purchase issue of 300 million shares at about 1.30...(this is just an example...I don't know all the details yet).

Now, the first thing I notice IS THAT YA IS NOT GETTING THE SHARES "like cheap options issues"...but ARE PAYING 1.30 X 300 MILLION...about 430 million dollars...AND THIS MONEY GOES INTO OCNF...

...WHY ARE THEY DOING THIS!!!

answer: SO THEY CAN BUY MORE SHIPS...you can buy about 7-8-9 ships (based on Ocnf purchases of used ships recently).

1. you don't have to BORROW THE MONEY at "high interest rates" from one of the big "credit is tight now" lending institutions.

2. you can move quickly... not have the loan negotiations turn sour...you got the money...a seller has a ship ready to go...you BUY IT! ...not a maybe...you get that ship PRODUCING REVS QUICKLY.

3. remember the money...the 430 million...it is REAL MONEY ...so those diluted shares brought in REAL MONEY into Ocnf ...they didn't just dilute the stock price at pennies on the dollar for profit.

4. the money is being used, BASED ON OCNF's recent "purchase history," TO GROW THE COMPANY BY INCREASING THE FLEET SIZE.

in summary: It appears to me, and I think the evidence supports the above position, that this is what OCNF IS DOING AND WHY!

...this is the ethical way to GROW A COMPANY...

1. this share dilution IS FOR A GOOD REASON...THE FUNDS MADE ARE BEING USED TO BUY MORE SHIPS and grow the company.

2. this share dilution WHEN ISSUED, like in this case, is NOT BEING DONE FOR PENNIES on the DOLLAR...like in the "employee option example" I used above...but the BIG-LOT BUYER IS PAYING pretty close to mkt val for the stock...so he's not really DILUTING THE STOCK PRICE...he's taking the same risk AS THOSE OUT IN THE FLOAT...

so, as long as OCNF continues to restrict share issues for good reasons ONLY (to raise capital to buy more ships and grow the fleet)...and also gets REALISTIC SHARE PRICES for the additional shares issues...

THEN I DON'T SEE A PROBLEM WITH THIS...in fact, it looks from a financial standpoint... like this is a much better way to raise needed capital for expansion...then BORROWING THE MONEY at "high-interest" rates.

...that's my rough take...and why I'm not concerned about the "bogeyman" of SHARE-DILUTION that some people hype....

Ocnf to GROW BIG TIME...with FULL SHIPS...making great profits...

regards,

flashrob

OceanFreight: Risky, But Deserving of Consideration

OCNF FLEET REVENUES

as you read this remember the "rough operating cost" of running a "capesize"...the largest ship...is about $6500. PER DAY...

...now notice on these Ocnf contract day rates that Ocnf has COMMITTED DAY revenues ...THAT RUN ABOUT 4-5 TIMES THE OPERATING COSTS...

in other words: Operating profit appears to be about 75%...
THAT'S A REAL GOOD NUMBER...and it's locked in...

Now, as contracts expire...if the BDI is high or going up...THEN NEW CONTRACTS will be based on these rates...meaning, even "bigger dollars."

SO IT'S LOOKING GREAT FOR OCNF TO GROW AND PROSPER...and is a great STOCK compared to many who are just "losing less than expected" or buying gov bonds...when all the govs are "printing money."

here's the numbers:

Drybulk Carriers

M/V Trenton

April 2010 to August 2010
$ 26,000
M/V Pierre

June 2010 to October 2010
$ 23,000
M/V Austin

April 2010 to August 2010
$ 26,000
M/V Juneau (1)

September 2009 to November 2009
$ 48,700
M/V Helena

May 2012 to January 2013
$ 32,000
M/V Topeka (2)

January 2011 to March 2011
$ 18,000
M/V Richmond (3)

July 2010 to October 2010
$ 18,100
M/V Augusta (4)

November 2011 to March 2012
$ 16,000
Tanker Vessels

M/T Pink Sands

October 2010 to January 2011
$ 27,450
M/T Olinda (5)

Spot Pool - October 2009
—
M/T Tigani

September 2009 to November 2009
$ 29,800
M/T Tamara (6)

November 2010 to March 2011
$ 27,000

Now, with the growth of the emerging mkt demand, plus some bounceback in U.S., Europe, Japan...

IT WILL JUST KEEP GETTING BETTER FOR OCNF and most other "dry bulk" carriers...

and anyone buying share issues in "big lots" isn't gonna BE IN A HURRY TO SELL THEM...this is "too good" of an investment...compared to most other alternatives...

and the DEMAND for dry bulk JUST KEEPS GROWING...
regardless of the pullback in U.S. and Europe, which helps BUT IS NOT NECESSARY.

DEMAND FROM EMERGING MKTS will be the BIG FUTURE FOR OCNF and the other ocean frt carriers.

it's a "no-brainer!" Ocnf, one of the best investment plays currently out there.

flashrob

OceanFreight: Risky, But Deserving of Consideration

...this is floating around... from a poster on aol...

ya global to purchase 300,000,000 shares or more of OCNF...

...just a little add to my prev...

anyone who buys 300million shares...is NOT GOING TO DUMP...there not enough vol in the mkt to handle...

big sign of CONFIDENCE in OCNF to buy that MUCH...
guess they got a pretty good idea of the future...and I don't think they're thinking BACK DOWN BELOW 1.30...like a lot of shorts are counting on...

no, I think them (YA) and FRIENDS are gonna be financing OCNF thru THE ROOF...to make sure they can BUY LOTS OF SHIPS...to REALLY EXPAND...in the NEW EMERGING MKT GLOBAL ECONOMY BIG GROWTH...

yes, I think OCNF is "gettin' ready to REALLY TAKE OFF..."

flashrob

OceanFreight: Risky, But Deserving of Consideration

well, WHAT A DAY (27JUL09)...VOL OVER 9MILLION, AVG is usually just about 3million...guess some "fence-sitters" came in strongly...short is about 4million...and that's no where near enough to account for the big-vol increase... looking good ...guess "some people must be pretty sure of good-earnings numbers" (about 3aug)...must of told some friends...


also, this is about a month back...but you may not have seen this...it's the CHINA thing...

www.cnbc.com/id/313108a72/


also for twitter fans:

stocktwits.com/t/OCNF

also, we're on the map... and have the attention as one of the "best performing" sectors...should be on a lot of media tonight...so, should continue UP tommorow!

flashrob

OceanFreight: Risky, But Deserving of Consideration

HERE'S FORBES MAGAZINES ANALYSIS... DTD 21JUL09

MANY DRY BULK STOCKS "UNDERVALUED" BY 70-80%...AND IN THAT LIST IS: OCNF...

...just a matter of time before the ANALYST'S UPGRADES...AND UP, UP...WE GO!

www.forbes.com/2009/07...

...better start covering shorts...WHEN IT'S IN FORBES...IT WON'T BE LONG BEFORE "BIG SIDELINE MONEY STARTS TO POUR IN ...and drive the stock up...

...have a nice day, and keep your finger on the "cover" button...when it happens I suggest a "mkt order" or it will fly right UP past you...

flashrob

OceanFreight: Risky, But Deserving of Consideration

LET'S START OUT WITH MANY FORECASTERS...be they media pundits, analysts, whatever....

1. they predicted a "summer in doldrums" for the mkts...WRONG...WRONG..... THE DOW FOR THE LAST WEEK AND TODAY!

we are having a "2nd leg" rally in the mkts, following the Mar09 rally...like up 25% for many stocks and more in Mar09...THE FORECASTERS BLEW THAT CALL TOO!

2. THE BDI ...geez, below 700 in Dec08...ocean shipping rates collapse...doom and gloom...with no end in site..."the BDI will be down bouncing off the bottom for a long time....

WRONG...WRONG...WRONG.... THE BDI is up about 500% since Dec08.

now the dry bulk carrier's stocks, like drys and ocnf all tanked...BASED ON DEC08 analysis and projected forward...but SURPRISE...things changed, and the mkts are recovering much bigger and faster than the forecasters dreamed of

and the analysts ARE SLOW TO FORECAST BIG TIME RECOVERY FOR THE WHOLE SECTOR...guess they get tired of "looking like dunces'!

China: the forecasters: China will see "recession big-time too" ...they will get creamed with the LOSS OF THE U.S. CONSUMER MKT...

WRONG AGAIN... these forecasters CAN ONLY TELL YOU WHAT THEY EXPECT in the future...based on the NOW...

and they are SLOW TO RESPOND TO THE NOW...which is CHINA and other emerging mkts growth going BIG-TIME...hardly at "a lull"...replacing the U.S. CONSUMER MKT with their own DOMESTIC CONSUMERS...

So, many of these same forecasters, etc. WHO DIDN'T SEE THE ECONOMIC DOWNTURN in the first place KEEP GETTING IT "WRONG!"

...on "Armchair quarterbacks!"

I notice most of the negative comments (probably by shorts, or work for short interests) ARE ABOUT MGMT HANDLING OF OCNF...

many of you remind me of A BUNCH OF GUYS watching a football game together on the big-screen. Full of "chips" and "buzzed on beer!"

Now, with every losing play... you're screaming what a dumb so-and-so, this player or the coach is...

if you were down on the field...you'd see it A BIT DIFFERENTLY...you'd get creamed in the first play, and it would be "stretcher time!"

Notice, I rarely post "about mgmt decisions" ...I DON'T HAVE ACCESS TO ENOUGH INFO... you have to be PRO ANALYST OR IN MGMT IN THE COMPANY ITSELF to UNDERSTAND or even legitimately criticize "mgmt decisions" in my opinion. There is just too much involved in running a "giant operation!"

Now, what I do post about...are trends, news, etc.
where the INFORMATION is readily available...like gdp, employment, other mkt info that is readily available and not "behind closed doors!"

and in the case of OCNF for a relatively recent startup...MGMT HAS MY CONFIDENCE...
as they DEMONSTRATED by a 247% earnings gain in year 2008 over 2007.

so, I WOULD BE VERY RELUCTANT to think I can figure out BETTER THAN OCNF MGMT what is the BEST MOVE FOR STRATEGIC LONG TERM GROWTH AND PROFITABILITY!

so most of the negative criticism involves OCNF mgmt decisions... AND AREA THAT BOTH YOU AND I HAVE LIMITED ACCESS TOO!

the area I post about IS AVAILABLE TO BOTH OF US...

but I don't see you making NEGATIVE points about CHINA and the other emerging mkts, THE RALLY IN U.S. MKTS IN MAR, THE BDI...the current move up in the dow for the last week and today...

...all indicators that SHOW OCEAN FREIGHT CARRIERS WILL HAVE A RESOUNDING "RECOVERY!"

so instead of endless speculation and criticism about OCNF mgmt decisions... (anyone can criticize the "bad play" on the football field... specially guys with beer guts and full of "chips!")

let's hear your analysis of GLOBAL ISSUES which impact OCNF and the rest of the carriers...

problem for you...THE NEWS IS MOSTLY SUPPORTIVE of an "analyst/forecaster UNANTICPATED change in econ fundamentals"

that WILL RESULT IN A BIG-TIME RECOVERY IN THE OCEAN CARRIER SECTOR AND THEIR RESPECTIVE STOCK PRICES!

the mkt keeps going UP, etc.

bad play for shorts with the MOMEMTUM of the mkts and the economies of the world spelling big-time recovery for the ocean frt industry.

flashrob

OceanFreight: Risky, But Deserving of Consideration

let's not forget ANALYSTS crunch existing numbers and don't have a crystal ball.

Like many of their FORECASTS ON MANY STOCKS...were based on a LONG TERM RECESSION MODEL...

they were CAUGHT WITH THEIR PANTS DOWN, AGAIN...

THE RALLY IN THE MKTS IN MAR09...AND NOW A 2ND LEG RALLY FOR THE PAST WEEK ...probably more UP today...

so, look for BETTER PROJECTIONS on the MANY STOCKS...and particularly the OCEAN FRT CARRIER SECTOR...

THE BDI IS UP 500% SINCE DEC08... when many of those forecasts were being compiled in the first qtr...they WERE BASED ON THE "WORSE RECESSION SCENARIOS!"

the DOW picked up about 2000 points since then, and appears were about to GO OVER 9000.

this mean THE FUTURE FOR OCNF is full ships...NOT JUST IN THE EMERGING MKTS as I previously posted extensively about...BUT ADD TO THAT
TONNAGE INCREASES FOR U.S. AND EUROPE...

it's going to be better than ever GOING FORWARD FOR OCNF and many other dry-bulk carriers...

THE DUMB SHORTS bought into the analyst's forecast... reality is MKTS ARE RECOVERING IN U.S. AND EUROPE... AND CHINA is ramping up bigger than ever...full ships and competition for them...

plus all kinds of problems/delays in shipyards...

and new ships have capital outlays that have to be paid off... so used ships are better deal...

some companies defaulting on new purchases throwing shipyards into further turmoil when the can't meet payrolls... so I wouldn't count on new ships flooding the mkt as an impact issue....

looking real good for BETTER FORECAST FOR DRYBULK ...the BDI proves it... and when the analysts REVISIT...

UPGRADES for OCNF and the other drybulks...

flashrob

OceanFreight: Risky, But Deserving of Consideration

THE BILLION SHARE DILUTION..."NONSENSE!"

what isn't being told...you'll be waiting a long time if you expect a company to reveal it's "strategic game plan."

but, I promised I'd get a "little financial" ...this by the way IS NOT MY BIG SECRET of why OCNF stock will go UP...this is just a "minor factor" in that...so I'll tell you what OCNF IS DOING...by issuing a billion shares...THEY ARE NOT HIDING ANYTHING ...THE REASON IS RIGHT THERE IN FRONT OF YOU...if you KNOW WHAT TO LOOK FOR.

OK, here's what they are doing:

1. you should know that MARKET CAP is the "price per share" x "the outstanding shares." (now this is not the true value of the company...but just what the mkt currently values the company at...the true value is known as the "book value") SO MOST COMPANIES STOCK PRICES ARE MUCH MORE THAN THEIR BOOK VALUE...one measure is P/E = STOCK PRICE divided by EARNINGS...

2. Now, go into Yahoo on the OCNF QUOTE and click on "competitors." (I'm just making this easy...there are a LOT MORE SHIPPING COMPANIES, etc. like, DRYS is not even on this list...but just to make it easy...you can get a rough idea of my point by looking at these numbers, etc...)

3. NOTICE THE "P/E's" ...Genco is like 13.79...

now, the average ballpark p/e figure for the shipping companies other than ocnf is about 7.

notice: ocnf is like .90 ...way below the average and significantly below genco.

now divide the average p/e...about 7 by .90 (ocnf p/e) and

YOU GET 7.77

NOW MULTIPLY 7.77 TIME OCNF old share number of about 137million...

AND LO AND BEHOLD, YOU GET 1.5 BILLION shares

So, NOW YOU KNOW WHY they issued 1 BILLION shares of stock, and WHY THE STOCK DIDN'T TANK...

BECAUSE OCNF was just bringing themselves UP TO THE AVERAGE P/E of the other shipping stocks...

that's how much it's undervalued...

so, the company figured if the "dumb mkt" doesn't raise the stock price to "comparable levels" based on EARNINGS with the other shipping companies...So, Ocnf JUST DID IT without the "dumb mkt."

now, the stock didn't and WON'T TANK WITH THIS DILUTION because the PROS know that ALL THAT WAS DONE WAS BRING UP OCNF into RELATIVE VALUE PARITY with the "current prices" of the OTHER "ocean frt carrier's stocks."

see, how simple this is...but you have been speculating about this for weeks...and all along it WAS RIGHT THERE IN FRONT OF YOU!!!


...also THERE ARE ALL KINDS OF RULES ABOUT how insiders handle PLANNED PURCHASES AND SALES, ETC. (I'll go into that in another post...suffice it to say...there will BE NO MASSIVE "ISSUING AND SELLING OF STOCK"...)

so, I hope with this clarity, will stop HEARING ABOUT HOW THE "BILLION SHARE DILUTION" will ruin this company...BY OUR "SHORT FRIENDS" OUT THERE!

the shorts like to "make mountains out of molehills"...because they HAVE LITTLE ELSE TO SUPPORT THEIR "NEGATIVE POSITION" going forward...

anyway, lol JUST KEEP HOLDING AND ACCUMULATING OCNF...and you won''t "need luck" to WIN!

flashrob

OceanFreight: Risky, But Deserving of Consideration

...looks like another UP day for the DOW...

notice OCNF rises with the Dow intraday, etc....

suspect the INCREASE IN DAILY VOL(over a million in the first hour)

indicates: shorts are starting to cover ...what with the u.s. and europe mkts rising... then ocean carrier transport have a demand increase...that's plus the fantastic China growth...

also: general accumulation by savvy investors at OCNF's current low price...

either or both...WITH THE TREND UP IN BOTH THE U.S. AND EUROPE...we should start going higher over the next couple weeks...

as more shorts get "more nervous" ...because recovery in U.S. and Europe ...spells more demand for U.S. AND Europe transport...AND NOW they are gonna demand compete with China (who been taking up the slack...why the BDI has been rocketing the last few months...)

so, it's looking "real promising for OCNF to make a move pretty soon...

analysts will be looking for "low-price bargain stocks"
with promising potential profits...and OCNF will be making those lists...

lol

flashrob