flashrob

PPIF: A Step in the Right Direction - But Not a Cure-All

the assets ARE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE... I agree...

problem is: they are going to continue to GO DOWN...with more high-paying job losses, more foreclosures as "mainstream mortgage payers" lose their jobs...

the future is "no recovery FOR MANY YEARS" FOR "big financials!"

the market is in denial listening to "recovery hoopla!"

what we need is REALITY to even have a chance at weathering this catastrophic economic storm.

MAIN ST. needs to be bailed out with a "huge and immediate" tax refund to GET THE CONSUMER ECONOMY jumpstarted...

forget the bondholders at the "big financials" ...they and friends are trying to "rally mkt up" so they can UNLOAD THEIR DECLINING ASSETS TO suckers...WHO THINK THESE PHONY STOCK MKT RALLIES will continue...

underlying fundamentals SPELL no "quick fix" to the world wide economy ...LIKE THOSE by Whitney/Roubini...who are giving
us the "unpleasant but real numbers and forecasts!"

flashrob

PPIF: A Step in the Right Direction - But Not a Cure-All

were we FOOLED AGAIN, BY "BIG MONEY!" have they INSTALLED "ANOTHER PUPPET!" beginning to look like THEY FOOLED US AGAIN...as usual!!!

Now, if Mr. Obama, wants TO PROVE OTHERWISE... here's a JUMPSTART THE ECONOMY CLUE FOR HIM!

HELP "main st" instead of "wall st."

illusion NUMBER ONE: you keep hearing that we have to prevent the "big investment type banks and financials" from failing TO PREVENT A WORLDWIDE LIQUIDITY CRISIS.

THIS IS FALSE because PUMPING THOSE BANKS FULL OF LIQUIDITY WILL NOT "GET THEM LENDING!" It only "bails out formerly rich investors!"

Think: Who is going to be borrowing IF YOU FLOOD THE BANKS WITH MONEY ...that could be used BETTER ELSEWHERE!

We are in a "global recession" and STILL GOING DOWN with continued FURTHER JOB CUTS. WORLDWIDE BIZ is CONTRACTING, DELEVERAGING, AND LAYING OFF PEOPLE.

BIZ NEEDS LARGE AMOUNTS OF LIQUIDITY AND FREE FLOWING CREDIT when THEY ARE EXPANDING "NOT CONTRACTING."

using the "trillion bailout" IS LIKE PUSHING A STRING...

those that NEED CREDIT, like the consumer WILL NOT GET IT, AND "big biz" does not need it IN CONTRACTION.

they are just BAILING OUT WALL ST. "AS USUAL!"

I voted for O'bama thinking CHANGE... but it appears the FOXES have surrounded him... and are taking care of "foxes" and not "us chickens!"

SOLUTION: we have 600 or so regional and local banks and SOME BIG ONES that are not using "mark to mkt" accounting and are in relatively GOOD FINANCIAL SHAPE.

LET THE BIG INVESTMENT BANKS GO DOWN...flooding them with credit that few need is WASTING TAXPAYER DOLLARS!

while there is STILL TIME... give the CONSUMER (who won't qualify for the credit reliquification anyway) A
HUGE IMMEDIATE TAX REFUND for last year.

the "individual" consumer could be given a "treasury refund coupon book"
with options to spend the tax refund in "certain timeframes" and on certain biz and sector purchases. This way he can't "salt away the money, etc."

say: one coupon of 20% could be used to purchase a "new or used car" or make a mortgage or credit card payment" but not pay off all credit card debt in one shot...like make double the minimum payment, etc. ...get the idea!

Congress would have to work out the specifics of the plan, but the effect WOULD BE TO IMMEDIATELY PUMP "HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS" OF DOLLARS into ALL SECTORS OF BIZ AND THE ECONOMY (instead of wasting this money to liquefy credit in world banks...where it will help few who "need and quality" for that type of credit).

JUMPSTARTING the "consumer sector" of the economy is WHAT IS NEEDED IMMEDIATELY...not bailing out Wall St. fiascos...

if you don't jumpstart the "consumer economy" immediately...more jobs WILL BE LOST, MORE PEOPLE WILL BE FORECLOSED AND LOSE THEIR HOUSES. These jobs will not return easily or quickly once they are lost.

Get with it Obama. Forget Wall St. ...BACK "MAINSTREET!"

FLASHROB

PPIF: A Step in the Right Direction - But Not a Cure-All

all this LIQUIDITY CRISIS talk...

all kinds of EFFORT TO IMPROVE LIQUIDITY IN THE CREDIT MARKETS...

the problem I have with this: "WHO THE HELL NEEDS TO BORROW ALL THIS MONEY?" which is supposed to return the finanacial sector to profitability....

THE ABOVE IS THE QUESTION THAT NEEDS TO BE ADDRESSED...I am still waiting for the Obama Administration which is "severely focused on restoring liquidity to big financials" TO TELL ME WHY THEY ARE "PUTTING SO MUCH EFFORT IN THIS ACTIVITY!

IF WE ARE IN A WORLD WIDE RECESSION AND WORLD ECONOMIES "ARE CONTINUING TO CONTRACT" ...

biz needs CREDIT/LIQUIDITY in an EXPANDING MARKET/ECONOMY...

PUMPING THE BANKS "FULL OF MONEY" IS LIKE "FILLING THE SHELVES OF A RETAIL STORE WITH GOODS"...

IF THE CONSUMER IS "OUT OF MONEY" and THESE BANKS have Obama "pumped in full money"...they still WILL NOT LEND TO THOSE WHO NEED CREDIT...BIZ DOESN'T...they are not EXPANDING...but the consumer needs "credit" to buy the stuff in our stores...

Obama and company...ARE MERELY "FILLING UP THE STORE SHELVES" (supply side economic theory)...BUT HE IS OVERLOOKING THE FACT THAT "A CONSUMER WHO LOST HIS JOB...even if he is "temporarily" subsidized by "unemployment...like at 60% of his former pay...and not even that if he was making big bucks...

WHERE IS THE "DEMAND" and the credit extended to those in THE POTENTIAL DEMAND "SIDE OF THE ECONOMY"...

will SOMEONE PLEASE "GRILL OBAMA ON "DEMAND" and how he will accomplish THAT!

everyone is IGNORING THAT FUNDAMENTAL ISSUE.

President Obama: ADDRESS "DEMAND"

no DEMAND, and banks "FULL OF LIQUIDITY" mean VIRTUALLY NOTHING TO RESTART ECONOMIC RECOVERY!

flashrob

This Bear Market Will End, Eventually

try this, especially if your "long" the financials...

messages.finance.yahoo...

read the post AND THE SINGLE REPLY

flashrob

This Bear Market Will End, Eventually

how 'bout trying some "common sense" based on what YOU SEE CURRENTLY instead of "INTERPRETATIONS ON PAST WORTHLESS STATISTICS" ...ya know, the one's the analyst USED IN 2007 to "so-accurately" predict 2008...THE ONES THAT COST INVESTOR'S "HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS" IN LOSSES...

TRY THIS...I DIDN'T LOOK UP ANY "REAL STATISTICS" just picked thru the news, looked around AND APPLIED A GREAT DEAL OF "COMMON SENSE!"

the FAKE BEAR RALLY TODAY ...excuse today for a rally (continuing last weeks fake financial rally) was driven by:

"new housing starts" increase by 6%

that's because BUILDERS BUILD...and now it's MOSTLY CHEAP condos (in those numbers).

The reality is: their smart... they know a lot of people WILL BE DOWNSIZING...losing that big McMansion (with the 3car garage) AND WANT SOMETHING CHEAP..."TO RENT!" ...while their foreclosed McMansion adds to the UNSOLD GLUT OF EMPTY HOUSES...

does that sound good for REAL ESTATE... sounds to be like "further deteriorating ASSET vals" for local/regional banks AND THE FURTHER WRITE-DOWNS for the "Real Estate derivatives" of the "BIG FINANCIAL INVESTMENT BANKS."

...EVEN "HOME DEPOT" had a "big rise!"

I guess all those people RENTING those NEW CONDOS...will be SPENDING LOTS at Home Depot...ya know...redoing their new "rental kitchen" or "bathroom" ...or buying a "lawn tractor" ...Oh, wait a minute the APARTMENT/CONDO OWNER will be buying "one new tractor" NOT 100 TENANTS who formerly had McMansions and bought "100 tractors" from Home Depot.

This FAKE RALLY was inspired by the above... SEE HOW MUCH YOU AND THE "HERD" can be driven BY THE SAME PEOPLE who TOLD YOU "BOTTOM" and buy in "while stocks are cheap" ...they have been piping you DOWN for the last two years... and you still run for the "quick (bear FAKE) RALLY" because YOU ARE IN DENIAL!!!

the ECONOMY IS HEADED LOWER AND SO IS THE STOCK MKT... there have been no REAL fundamental improvements to DRIVE A "REAL RALLY."

I personally, don't like what's happening, BUT I AM A REALIST...and as soon as I saw the "new housing starts" number, I SMELLED A FAKE RALLY and profited, by the way...I'm a daytrader afterall, but I'm already OUT.

...these MISLEADING NUMBERS...pumped up by the analysts and spread thru the financials, even OIL went up...

CRAMER, TONIGNT, even called "today's rally" a "cheap linoleum floor" under the mkt, after doing MUCH THE SAME ANALYSIS AS MYSELF... and he's a bull (I saw Stewart's roasting of him, and felt he was doing a little contrition... I did like the new CRAMER...I thought HE WAS DEAD RIGHT ON TONIGHT...and will now watch him to see if he sticks with REALITY!}

Serious, forecasters indicate we appear to be NEARER BOTTOM in the market. They also, warn that there is no reason for BUYING IN YET and "no good reasons" for a "sustainable real rally" driven by sound fundamental logic and numbers.

So, in reality...YES IT'S A FAKE RALLY!

I know some people lost a lot of money in many stocks/sectors on the way down over the past year.

But believing "waffling spin" by the Fed and the Administration, and "feel good" stuff like confidence numbers have slowed...

"consumer confidence" means crap these days, especially to those 600,000 or so people LOSING THEIR HIGH-PAYING JOBS...and the corresponding money THEY SPEND IN THE CONSUMER ECONOMY...

A Jeffries analyst on Bloomberg...was SOUNDING OFF UPBEAT
about the MANY STOCKS IN THE RETAIL SECTOR...

saying banks will loosen credit under Obama's stimulus plan, etc., etc., etc....

PROBLEM is the CONSUMER is maxed out on his credit cards,
(see Amex defaults increase yesterday)...

SO ALL THE INCREASING OF "EVEN CHEAPER CREDIT" is not going to help AN INCREASING NUMBER OF CONSUMERS WHO "DON'T QUALIFY FOR IT!'

if you read the above slowly AND THINK ABOUT IT...

you will realize that IT WAS JUST ANOTHER "FAKE RALLY!"

...based on denial, frustration, fantasy...ANYTHING BUT...

BASIC FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS...

flashrob

On a Disastrous Jobs Number, Recession is Obvious

REALITY OF GOV'S UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS!

www.nytimes.com/2008/0...

FLASHROB

On a Disastrous Jobs Number, Recession is Obvious

30 Jul 2008 Market Close...consisted of a Rally late in the day...attributed to "a positive report on unmemployment declines by ADP!"

Now here's my BEEF!

During stable economic periods, job statistics from private or government sources have, in my opinion some validity. However, with high-paying job losses going overseas due to WTO/Nafta - e.g. lots of IT to India - and domestic massive job layoffs in the brokerage sector, etc...

Kind of see my point. We no longer have a "stable economic period." So, it is my contention that most "unemployment/job" number statistics ARE VERY, AND PURPOSEFULLY MISLEADING. Consider the following example:

Citibank lays off 100 brokers at 100k each annual salary...net loss 10,000,000 dollars in Consumer Purchasing Power at Target, etc...

Walmart/McDonalds HIRES 200 clerks at 20k each annual salary...net gain 4,000,000 dollars in Consumer Purchasing Power at Target, etc...

The spin: jobs WENT UP 100%

The reality: "Real Aggregate Consumer Purchasing Power" went down OVER 50%! (6,000,000 dollars)

So you see that's how "bull-spin-doctors" make IT LOOK GOOD ...when in Reality...ITS GETTING WORSE!

Government UNEMPLOYMENT numbers are virtually worthless...JOB SALARY (X) EMPLOYEES (gain/loss) = Real gain/loss in Comsumer Purchasing Power...THIS IS "what they should be telling us".

so this is WHAT WE NEED FROM THE GOV... numbers THAT ACCURATELY REFLECT THE "REAL SITUATION!"

I mean, how is one expected to evaluate mkt data for investing, if you, or other investors are getting MISLEADING NUMBERS, and making "investment decisions" based on THAT MISLEADING DATA!

Given the current shaky climate, isn't it time to demand the gov's numbers really indicate something!!!

flashrob