flashrob

Subprime, Alt-A Mortgage Performance Continues To Decline [Housing Tracker]

a "simple proposal" to alleviate much of the "sub-prime" crisis...

I have noticed that "much of the problem" for the financial institutions is:

1. Real-Estate writedowns sometimes as much as .10 cents on the dollar. This is in turn lowers the bank reserve rates ... resulting in severe financial distress for the institution.

2. This is all based on the "so-called marketable value" of the underlying "assets" (mortgage, etc.)

3. ...and WHO IS WILLING TO PAY "WHAT" ON THE WORLDWIDE MKTS.

4. Now, in our present circumstances THIS LINE OF THINKING IS CLEARLY WRONG!!!

5. My Solution: Screw the "so-called mkt value" of mortgages, cdo's, etc.

I don't know of ANY REAL ESTATE THAT HAS DROPPED MORE THAN 50% during the last few years ... SO WHY ARE BANKS BEING FORCED TO VALUE THEM in some cases at .10 cents on the dollar ... only because their are no BUYERS ON THE OPEN MKTS???

This is STUPID ... if I have a million dollar house (estimate 5 years ago) and IT'S NOW WORTH 500k ... and I could get 500k ...why then is the bank or banks that have traded the "my original mortgage rights" being forced to "asset value it" at 100k ... because NO ONE IN THE WORLD FINANCIAL PAPER MKTS WANTS TO BUY IT ...

SCREW 'EM ... THE VALUE SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ON THE BANK'S BOOKS AT 500K (it's actual marketable resale value) AND NOT 100K because EVERYBODY IN THE "PHONY FINANCIAL PAPER MKT" in a "ILL-LIQUIDITY FEAR PANIC!"

... just because "the only prospective buyers of my house in a given week" only OFFER ME 100K ...

screw 'em ... I'll just wait TO GET MY 500K PRICE ...

and since IT REALLY IS WORTH 500K ... I'LL GET IT ...maybe I just have to wait a few weeks ... TIL "SERIOUS BUYERS" COME IN...

bottom line: ALL BANK REAL-ESTATE MORTAGES SHOULD BE BASED AS ASSET VALUES more in line with their true worth ... like say 50% ... look at the mkt prices on housing that is being sold ... it's even "better than that in most cases!"

Screw the "panicky financial paper SHUFFLERS!"

WHAT ARE THESE "REAL ESTATE MORTGAGE ASSETS REALLY WORTH???

FLASHROB

No Quick Recovery for Stock Markets

...the problem is:

unlike past "Real Estate cycles"...up/down/up/d... down...

there is a systemic economic problem

where... chunks of "high paying tech jobs" are going to place like India (where they do the same work...programming, etc...for about 1/10 the cost)

and this was supposed to be the "planned" cyclically counted on BASE for REVITALIZING the U.S. ECONOMY...housing, comsumer spending, etc....

the argument: we'll let the "low paying mfr jobs" go to places like China...

and under the new go-go WTO/Nafta...GLOBAL TRADE CONCEPT...that happened...

BUT UNFORTUNATELY...you don't "have to live here...TO DO COMPUTER HI-TECH!

you can DO EVERYTHING FROM A COMPUTER TERMINAL OVER THE "INTER-NETWORK" from a "3rd World Country!

Couple that WITH ALL THOSE HIGH-PAYING JOB LOSSES in the brokerage sector...

and you have a NEW GLOBAL RECIPE for NO REAL ESTATE RECOVERY IN THE U.S...

unless housing tanks way over 50% so THE FLOOD OF ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS can AFFORD ONE! (my view by-the-way...is that "illegal immigrants" are VERY HARD WORKING...AND ARE A NET GAIN ECONOMICALLY for our country...I'm "glad they're here," though I would like them to be legal!)

just so you know: Despite the negative USE of Social Svcs by illegals...the ADD FAR MORE TO GAINS by their "hard work."

there is a CONSIDERABLE NET GAIN ECONOMICALLY FOR OUR COUNTRY by the presence of the "illegals!" There illegality is just a dicey problem for the pols...I'll post the numbers sometime...but our net gain is BILLIONS more due to have the illegals, then the cost of schooling, health-care, etc.

so, until Real Estate REALLY TANKS (which it will) ...and this is also BAD FOR MOST FINANCIALS also...

it's a continued SLOW ECONOMIC CYCLE DOWN!

not a "collapse" ...just stead down...

flashrob

Financials Future Still Uncertain

some backup on this from Congress...

www.infowars.net/artic...

flashrob

Selling the Short Sellers Short: Another Sign of Trouble

why MOST banks WILL FAIL...

and they ARE "no LONGER" A GOOD INVESTMENT...


...unless we withdraw from WTO and Nafta, to MAINTAIN A LOCAL HIGH-PAYING JOB BASE, drop Real Estate across the board to about 50% of what it is now, cut government spending drastically...AND EVEN IF WE DID ALL THESE THINGS the transition would still be tough...

WELL MOST OF THAT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN...so MANY BANKS WILL FAIL (sustained in appearance by the Fed...but they won't have much investment potential).

Consumers will get laid off IN GREATER NUMBERS AS BUSINESS'S CUT BACK...so they can show less than analyst's expected losses (mostly due to lay offs...who are also those people who will not now be shopping at Target, etc.)

Get the picture...WE'RE GOING DOWN...and the BANKING SECTOR is "LEADING THE CHARGE" FOR THE MOST PART.

Now maybe Obama has a solution, BUT I DON'T THINK SO.

So, IT'S RIDICULOUS TO ME TO WATCH THE "FINANCIAL SECTOR" RALLYING when

THERE IS NO REAL CHANCE FOR IT'S RECOVERY!

there's a lot more I could say, on fundamental economic issues...BUT THIS IS PRETTY MUCH OUR FUTURE.

NO REAL-ESTATE RECOVERY

NO BANKING RECOVERY

MORE TAXES

CONSUMER SPENDING CONTINUING TO DECLINE

MORE JOB LOSSES TO OVERSEAS

OIL continuing to be the new BLACK GOLD...WHICH MEANS AFTER A SHORT HIATUS ...PRICES WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO CLIMB...

all in all, not a good picture. THESE ARE THE UNDERLYING PROBLEMS...

SO MOST RALLIES ON THE MKT...LIKE THE ONE ON THE FINANCIAL SECTOR of the last few days...

ARE BASED ON ILLUSION.

So, my take is SKF looking real good going forward because MOST BANKS ARE HEADED FURTHER IN LOSS TERRITORY.

FLASHROB

Selling the Short Sellers Short: Another Sign of Trouble

I could agree, about the speculators taking advantage of naked shorting...BUT THE TIMING OF THIS SMACKS OF SEC MEDDLING IN THE MKTS...

THEY SHOULD HAVE ANNOUNCE A FUTURE DATE FOR THIS RULE TO BE APPLIED ...not suddenly SPRUNG ON US
IN THE MIDDLE OF A PLAY...

LIKE CHANGING THE RULES IN A FOOTBALL GAME WHEN THE GUY IS RUNNING WITH THE BALL AND ABOUT TO SCORE A TOUCHDOWN...

DO YOU CHANGE THE RULES TO INVALIDATE THE PLAY IN PROGRESS...

I DON'T THINK SO...YOU WAIT 'TIL THE GAME IS FINISHED ...THEN CHANGE THE RULES...TO BE FAIR TO ALL...

FLASHROB