flashrob

The Market Domino Effect: Staying Ahead of the Curve

yeah, but the "things in my mind" are based on REALITY not fantasy, denial, optimism or pessimism...REALITY...and it's blatantly obvious even in the "gov's phony jobs numbers," for example, which are highly "understated!" THAT THE ECONOMY IS "STILL" HEADED "DOWN" with NO BOTTOM IN SIGHT!

reality...TRY SOME!

flashrob



On Apr 28 12:18 AM Manifestor wrote:

> Flashrob said: "it's very difficult to "change someone's mind" when
> they want to believe what they want to believe, despite all your
> best arguments."
>
> That would apply to Flashrob too, right!

The Market Domino Effect: Staying Ahead of the Curve

it's very difficult to "change someone's mind" when they want to believe what they want to believe, despite all your best arguments.

Knowing that "you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink,"

doesn't absolve me from, at least in my estimation, from making sure that threre's water in the place I'm leading him to....

regards,

flashrob

The Market Domino Effect: Staying Ahead of the Curve

give you guys a break...from me...not my stance!

check this out!

www.nytimes.com/2008/0...

regards,

flashrob

The Market Domino Effect: Staying Ahead of the Curve

...sorry, I meant to be clearer in that last...

many of those promised "hi-tech" jobs that were supposed to replace the "mfr jobs" (so called lower level jobs) that were lost due to us jumping onboard the WTO/NAFTA express...

Well, many of those jobs are, SURPRISE, SURPRISE, finally, now, SURFACING...ONLY THEY ARE SURFACING IN "INDIA," for example.

My point being, WHO AND WHAT are going to SHORE-UP and recover the U.S. Real Estate mkt - foreigners "on the cheap, YA THINK!"

Also, one LITTLE CAVEAT ON THE FINANCIALS...

who in their "right mind" thinks the financials are A BUY AT THESE LEVELS???

Did you SOMEHOW OVERLOOK the FACT that:

1. Future Earnings Prospects are bad FOR MANY!!!

a. Credit Qualifications HAVE TIGHTENED...no cyclical bounceback on "loose ARMs" ...gone, gone, never to be repeated...so less profitable loans made to fewer. How does that look for earnings, and beating comparable quarters last year...NOT FOR YEARS, IF EVER, I THINK!

b. FEWER LOANS, because the "pink slips" HAVEN'T BEEN DELIVERED YET...so the consumer is still BREATHIN' HIS LAST...until many get their pink slips, STARTING THIS SUMMER, I figure...

c. HIGHER ENERGY COSTS...FUNNY HOW OIL KEEPS ON GOING UP when reserves are in better and better shape each month...

Maybe that's because THE REST OF THE WORLD is not paying THAT MUCH MORE FOR OIL...IT'S ONLY US!

THE PRICE OF OIL (in U.S. dollars) IS ONLY GOING UP SKY HIGH IN THE U.S....this is due to the "dollar's" decline, because of Bush's War and the gov PRINTING MONEY like it's Monopoly were playing at.

(Oil is going up in other countries in Europe, Asia, etc. BUT MORE REASONABLY for them... because of China's increased growth, etc. BUT, IT IS FLYING UP IN THE U.S. ...not becuase of lower supplies and competition over it...BUT MOSTLY BECAUSE OF THE "ever weakening dollar," BECAUSE WE ARE PRINTING TOO MUCH MONEY!!!

and the MOST IMPORTANT POINT ABOUT THE "FINANCIALS!"

They HAVE REDUCED PROSPECTS, going forward for PROFITS...

a. lets not forget THAT THEY WOULD HAVE A TOUGH TIME going forward because of less customers (due layoffs of GOOD JOBS, etc...the kind of people who even get mortages, etc.)

b. tighter LENDING STANDARDS...

c. but, the BIGGEST REASON ...they won't be doing well for years LET ALONE surpassing LAST YEARS QTRS...IS:

they (MOST) are CARRYING (and paying premium interest on) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF DEBT...

do you think that MULTI-BILLION DOLLAR DEBT of MANY is going to quietly DISAPPEAR...well the
marketeer "spin doctors" ARE PROBABLY HOPING that YOU BEING THE "HERD," won't NOTICE A LITTLE THING LIKE THAT...

Afterall, we have REACHED BOTTOM, HAVEN'T WE (maybe), and the

FINANCIALS HAVE NO WAY TO GO...BUT UP...FROM HERE...(bout how the spin goes, doesn't it?)

Like the emphasis will be on NEW PROSPECTS AND REVS, etc...

BUT GUESS WHAT...there are still BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF BAD DEBT (with interest)...

So, in REALITY, will someone tell me WHY FINANCIALS ARE CONSIDERED

positions TO START ACCUMULATING...

IS EVERYONE THAT DUMB???

Apple is bounding up, Nvda should pretty soon (two of my favorites)...AND I THINK THEY HAVE A TOUGH TIME GOING FORWARD IN THIS RECESSION...but the

main thing they have going for them...IS NOT HAVING BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF SUB-PRIME LOSSES TO "PAY BACK," in ADDITION to a "weak economy" going forward...in order to make decent earnings.

I just can't believe the NETWORKS talking UP the FINANCIALS...


most are going to be WEAK for YEARS before they get out from under that bad debt, EVEN WHEN THE RECESSION IS OVER...(not anytime soon, I suspect....) they'll STILL BE PAYING OFF THAT BAD DEBT FOR YEARS....

i'd SHORT financials HEAVILY (most of those with lots of sub-prime, etc...especially AS HOUSING PRICES CONTINUE TO FALL, there will likely be MORE WRITEDOWNS....)...only reason I don't TOO MUCH is there ARE A LOT OF IDIOTS who "buy the spin" and drive them up...

eventually they'll tank, but I don't want to get "run down in the stampede" EVEN WHEN IT APPEARS the HERD is "heading for the cliff" and NOT THE RIVER.

REGARDS,

flashrob

The Market Domino Effect: Staying Ahead of the Curve

...by the way, I don't think the mkts will collapse (thanks to at least one good move by Bernanke with Bear Stearns, that one I agree with, but he should have been RAISING INTEREST RATES not lowering them...another time....)

...but believe there ain't NO UP for the 2nd half of the year. That nonsense is what MANY OF THE HERD ARE BETTIN' ON!

When, your neighbors start losing their jobs and houses, then that "2nd half" recovery WILL BE MOVED "FORWARD," and probably indefinitely (the marketeers are probably working on the "spin" for that, right now and "frantically" ...LIKE KEEP THE LID ON TIL' THE ELECTION IS OVER...Bush can't "take any more!")

Like when the "financials" are laying off "thousands" of high-paying jobs (which ain't the same as "Walmart" jobs...ya know...the ones the gov all links together in the "labor statistics" ...like were supposed to believe there's not much difference). Not just the financials, but those "high-tech" jobs that were supposed to replace our "lost mfr" jobs, with Nafta and the WTO. Well, bottom line:

Whose going to RECOVER REAL-ESTATE for us...

maybe, "hi-techies" from India, China, etc. will MOVE HERE and buy up those empty houses...like they don't get paid as much by the "new MULTINATIONALS pay scales..." but heck, WITH THE DOLLAR dropping (like 50% against the Brazilian Real, no less in seven years or so) hey THEIR LOWER SALARIES (paid by the multinationals who, at least many of them, still keep their Headquarters here in the U.S.) WILL DO JUST FINE WITH THE "higher standard credit checks" of U.S.
lenders.

So, it ain't ALL BAD NOW...IS it....

regards,

flashrob

The Market Domino Effect: Staying Ahead of the Curve

I pretty much agree with the main forecast. The MARKET is either in "denial," or trying to manipulate the average guy on the "way down!" Probably, some of both!

Remember HOW MANY TIMES since "last summer" the financials had to take ADDITIONAL WRITE-DOWNS....

Do, you really think you can trust the "positive spin doctors" over the UNIVERSITY ECONOMISTS vs. the economists who are BEHOLDEN TO THE SYSTEM...(gov, big biz, etc.)

I trust the academics on THIS ONE...like the "marketeer spin-doctors" DIDN'T SEE THE "DOT-COM" debacle...then, they didn't see the "sub-prime" fiasco (and I don't think the financials HAVE "FULLY" COME CLEAN YET!). So, yeah I've been going "LONG" lately on these "phony polyanna bear rallies" - if the idiots want to "drive the mkt up" in denial...hey, "up is up," so I ONLY DAYTRADE THE SHORTERM AND "OUT BY END OF DAY!"

best, I can see...these days....

regards,

Flashrob