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Probe of Citigroup et al Could Hit Financial ETFs

people are SHORT or LONG...based on their analysis...

Everyone probably has a "vested interest" in promoting their take on the outlook for mkts, sectors, or stocks.

However, because they may/may not have a VESTED INTEREST...DOES "NOT NEGATE" their REASONING!

in reality...being short or long on something...indicates.... PUT YOUR MONEY WHERE YOUR MOUTH IS.

My take...

how, can you be LONG the "financials" when the FUNDAMENTALS keep getting worse "day-by-day" ...week-by-week" etc.

SHORTS have BACKUP OF FUNDAMENTAL DATA...
...and their "short" because that's the PROBABILITY OF MAKING A RETURN ON YOUR INVESTMENT.

I LISTEN TO "all news, etc." AND TAKE A POSITION ...BASED ON "PROBABILITIES" of a sector, stock, etc.

whether, someone has or doesn't have a "so-called vested interest" GOES WITH THE news, analysis, etc.

Who, convinces me...is the WAY...and WHAT SIDE I INVEST ON!

short financials: all the fundamentals, news, statistics...STRONG CASE...

long financials: CHEERLEADING MOSTLY...no facts or logic to support their position...

suspect many LONGS are "shills" for "big boy investors" who like Lewis in the case of Bear Sterns...AFTER THEY TOOK A TERRIBLE LOSS as Bear Sterns kept declining over time...tried desperately to STAVE OFF "FURTHER LOSSES as Bear Sterns went down to like $2.

Looks, to me like "evidence" is for WORSE NEWS for "many large financials" and they will GO THE WAY OF BEAR STERNS...

screwing their investors...despite last minute help from the Gov to prop their prices, and rally the financials...but based on what...

the gov will let you survive...even the Gov will stop support when IT REALIZES THIS price prop spin WILL FAIL...

AND THE GOV WILL "TAKE OVER" MANY FINANCIALS or engineer Bear Sterns type buyouts...

geez, the Treasury is putting itself in position to "buy your stock!"

Hooray! ...you say...until you realize... they are not doing that to Prop your stock, or drive it up in an "unjustified by the fundamentals" rally...

...they know in the end, that when prop fails...THEY WILL BE BUYING YOU particulary FNM, FRE...FOR "PENNIES ON THE DOLLAR!"

think about it...if your a "weak" big financial YOU'LL GO THE "BEAR STERNS "precedent!"

FNN, FRE...another gov bureaucracy...

but...you the "common shareholder" in these entities...

ARE AT THE "BOTTOM OF THE TOTEM POLE" for "pennies on the dollar" (if that)...bondholders, preferred securities...

get paid out of "what's left over" in liquidation...the future for many of you...

Financials have not reached "bottom" ...the Gov just keeps lowering it...that's all.

Most Financials are like the "former great city of New Orleans!"

...was always REBUILT "bigger and better" after each calamity...in the twentieth century...BUT NOT THIS TIME!

just "small portions" mostly Gov related...

so you still have a GS financial...small portion probable survivor...but MANY...will like

New Orleans..."NEVER RECOVER!"

your money longs... gonna go down with a "Lewis" ala "Bear Sterns" or put your money in something more LIKELY to Recover....

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U.S. Bank Franchises Could Be Damaged

and then there's this from Meridith Whitney

biz.yahoo.com/ap/08073...

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