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GDW1

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  • Green Mountain: Headlines Don't Tell The Whole Story [View article]
    But if I like Newman's own Extra Bold, and it goes up a few cents/cup while another unlicensed doesn't raise prices, why would I change? People who go this route for their coffee probably won't be swayed by a few cents/cup. Coke drinkers don't buy Pepsi when it's cheaper, nor generics because they are Coke drinkers for whatever reason. All coffee isn't fungible. Not much really is because people develop tastes, and loyalty for whatever reason, or no reason. They just do.
    May 13 09:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain: Headlines Don't Tell The Whole Story [View article]
    If you say something long enough, it might just come true. Of course I might be dead by then.
    May 12 10:27 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco's Turnaround Is A Pipe Dream [View article]
    I'm with Bryan. Cisco certainly isn't what it once was, but they pay 3.5% yield and still print money in the basement. Their downside is probably limited, great yield and lots of cashflow. Not a bad place to wait to see what happens.
    Mar 12 10:48 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will SodaStream Shoot For $50? [View article]
    Thanks to all who graciously corrected me . Didn't realize that the cartridges trade in like propane tanks for a gas grill. So price for making soda seems generally comparable, Then I understand everything else - convenience, variety, etc. etc.
    Feb 13 12:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Krispy Kreme Doughnut and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters sign deal [View news story]
    Jeez. Signing up companies is their core business. Selling anyone's coffee that the market wants to buy. How hard is it to bring on another licensee. Put their coffee in the hopper and their label on top of the pod and a new box to hold the pods, like GMCR already does for scores of other coffees. If it doesn'ts sell, who's hurt? "Sketchy company with some taint" is pretty loose, and as for poor coffee, certainly that's one person's opinion that can neither be right or wrong. Beats me if this deal with KO will work, but some of these arguments are getting old.
    Feb 12 09:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will SodaStream Shoot For $50? [View article]
    Truth be told I'm a GMCR holder and don't really drink soda, but obviously the KO deal is of great interest to me. Here's what i don't understand about SODA. I find online that their cola syrup is $5 to make 12 liters, and the CO2 cartridges for about $60 makes 60 liters. That's $85 for 60 liters of soda, or over $2.80 for a 2 liter bottle equivalent. Retail price for 2 liters of Coke can be $1.69, $.1.49, and on sale I still see $.99. Buying a 12 pack of cans, or 24 pack I always see for about $.25/can. How do people justify paying between 2-2.5x to make it at home? I get the environmental thing, and the novelty of making it at home, having all sorts of flavors, etc. but I guess I'm having a hard time seeing how this will become a big thing. I know it's the same with single serve coffee, but there is a benefit of making one cup at a time instead of a pot that goes beyond the cost.
    Feb 11 12:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain's Pop Will Fizzle Out [View article]
    Coke getting into the home beverage market. Hot, cold, lukewarm, etc.
    Feb 8 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain's Pop Will Fizzle Out [View article]
    Wow. Someone either (a) got up on the wrong side of the bed this morning, or (b) missed the boat on this/sold short in the 60's, or (c) both a and b. Who knows how this will play out. Your opinion is no different than anyone else's who is reasonbly well informed and has been watching GMCR for some time. How about this one. I have no idea how the whole cold beverage thing will work out. What i do know is that Coke now owns 10% of GMCR. GMCR is essentially a US/Canadian company with over $4 billion in sales. You can buy a can of coke in almost any place on the planet. Maybe coke takes GMCR global and this is coke's way to get into the hot beverage market as they see their soda market begin to erode. Even if the cold thing never works out, we now have global opportunities that never existed before, and that's a win for GMCR and Coke.
    Feb 7 03:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Deal With Coca-Cola Shows Desperation [View article]
    And again I'm just looking for proof that what GMCR does, and did is unique. Providing me with Apple, FB and Intel doesn't do it. You can ascribe ill motives, and it's very difficult to know intent, but if you can show something they do, regularly, that's not like it's done institutionally, you would have something. You've just not done it. Don't get me wrong. I think it would be material if GMCR was in fact unique, but you ascribe ill motives without proof, which may or may not exist.
    Feb 6 12:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Deal With Coca-Cola Shows Desperation [View article]
    So your answer to my question is you have no clue if what they do is any different than any other publicly traded corporation.
    Feb 6 09:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Deal With Coca-Cola Shows Desperation [View article]
    Have you assessed whether GMCR is unique in how they round? Have you evaluated the Fortune 1000 to see how they round - to the 10th's when it rounds up, and leave it to the 100th's when it would have rounded down? Have you at least evaluated an appropriately sized random sample to test your hypothesis? If GMCR is unique in the bit of math wizardry, then you have something. If you find that other desperate companies are unique in this, then you have something.
    Feb 6 09:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Deal With Coca-Cola Shows Desperation [View article]
    I can only hope that one day someone will buy GMCR, maybe Coke now, and we can all be put out of our collective misery. Sometimes good companies go down, and bad companies go up. No news here. And anyone can look at numbers and find both good and bad things in them if you look hard enough and you have a narrative you're trying to support. But rounding issues! Really! Now that sounds desperate. That said, GMCR is operating in the US and Canada. They sold 5mm Keurigs. Some replacement, some gifts that may never get used, but 5mm. And yes, maybe all the cold weather should encourage coffee drinkers and they should have sold more, but as one in the NY area, it's just been depressing, so I'm drinking the hard stuff. Coke gets them international capabilities like almost no one else can. Will home soda machines ever really become ubiquitous? Beats me. I rarely drink it. By the way, here are Coca Cola's brands. They ain't just soda. http://bit.ly/1bchqll
    Feb 6 09:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain's Growth Story [View article]
    Did generic cola kill Coke and Pepsi, soup kill Campbells, you fill in the blank. There is a place for generics, but for people who know what they like, it makes no difference. Coffee drinkers like what they like. If Treehouse puts out a product that can compete with Starbucks, regardless of what you think of Starbucks coffee, they would get business. Likewise (and again fill in the blank) with any of the other GMCR coffee under their name, or the others for whom they produce the k-cups). I won't save 10 cents/cup, or 20 if the coffee isn't as good. I'm not saying it's not. There are hundreds of coffees one can drink. Saving 10 or 20 cents/cup just isn't that important to coffee drinkers. The generics might actually expand the market for machines to those who otherwise wouldn't buy one because of the cost of brand name pods, but I'm just not convinced GMCR has that much to worry about since they already have many high quality brands under license. Now if Treehouse begins to private label, and gets Starbucks, or Newman's own to jump ship, different story.
    Dec 4 05:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Q4 2013 Results Provide Even Weaker Guidance [View article]
    I still think that if the knockoff coffee is inferior, it doesn't necessarily take away from GMCR pods, rather it expands the market for brewers to those people for whom the cost of the 'higher end" coffee makes a difference. Coffee drinkers are fickle people. I have essentially stopped buying coffee at any restaurant after dinner because most of it is just bad. Not worth it. I'm not a coffee snob. Rather, I just know what I like, and to save 10-20 cents/cup by buying a pod that doesn't taste as good as what I'm used to isn't something I'd do, and I think I'm typical. Who knows how this will all play out, how it goes internationally, etc. Maybe someone buys GMCR and puts us all out of our misery, and we can argue about some other company
    Nov 27 04:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • OTR Global creates a ripple for Green Mountain Coffee again [View news story]
    So a product that doesn't yet exist has generated an opinion as to its impact in the marketplace. hmmm. I wish I could see the future.
    Nov 26 05:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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