Fearful Optimism

Fearful Optimism
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  • Salesforce.com (CRM -7.8%) is cut to Hold with price target reduced $9 to $42 at Wedbush post-earnings. Analyst Steve Koenig views "deferred commission expenditures" as the best indicator of new sales activity, and they fell 46% Y/Y. Asked about it on the CC (transcript), CFO Graham Smith suggests a tough comp as the reason for the big dip. Needham's Mike Huang reiterates his Buy and $50 PT: "We don't detect any meaningful deterioration of sales cycles or close rates."  [View news story]
    PT was reduced by $9...seems like a very strange way of wording it, though.
    May 24, 2013. 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL -4.2%) roundup: Tiger Global joined the unrelated Tiger Management in selling Apple shares in Q1, lowering its stake to 260K shares from a prior 1.05M (13F). 2) According to the iRumor mill's latest updates, the retina iPad Mini will have the same resolution (2048x1536) and processor (A6X) as the retina 4th-gen iPad; the iPhone 5S will replace the tradition home button with a touch-sensitive sapphire button (a positive for GTAT); and the iPhone 5S will have an improved camera to go with a fingerprint sensor. 3) The DOJ accuses Apple of being the ring-master in an e-book price-fixing scheme (previous); Apple calls the accusation "absurd." 4) Joe Weisenthal observes Apple's price movements have correlated some with gold's.  [View news story]
    no market current about Einhorn owning over $1 billion of Apple?
    May 15, 2013. 05:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix (NFLX) announces that users can link their Facebook account with its service starting today. The new integration will allow Netflix members to see what friends are watching with an opt-in feature. NFLX +2.4% premarket.  [View news story]
    I realize that this could help subscriber growth on the margin, but couldn't this also create some subscriber loss? What if I, as a NFLX subscriber, see that one of my friends is also a NFLX subscriber and then propose that we split the cost and share an account? In that case, NFLX loses revenue even though we both still use the service.
    Mar 13, 2013. 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Fragile House Of Cards  [View article]
    There just seems to be a huge inefficiency in the way they monetize their customers that seems easy to exploit.
    Feb 22, 2013. 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Fragile House Of Cards  [View article]
    Someone should really create a website where Netflix subscribers can link up and share accounts (use 1 persons account and alternate paying months or something). I'm sure some Netflix subscribers are already sharing their account info among friends, but doing that could cut their subscriber base pretty substantially.
    Feb 21, 2013. 07:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is A Fragile House Of Cards  [View article]
    I don't understand the binge releasing at the same time you're offering a 1-month free trial. Do they expect people to sign up for a free trial, realize how great their content is, and start paying? I'm thinking of signing up for a free trial to watch House of Cards and any other content I think is worth watching and then canceling before the end of the month and with the rate Netflix begs old subscribers to come back, I could probably get another free trial when the next season comes out.
    Feb 20, 2013. 12:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares of Netflix (NFLX) move up 1.0% in premarket action after the company discloses it received a Wells notice from the SEC along with CEO Reed Hastings over a Facebook posting. Traders seem to be betting the issue will result in a slap on the wrist at worst. The bigger issue: What will the SEC's position on social network streams be moving forward and how will the agency differentiate Facebook postings and Twitter tweets from press releases?  [View news story]
    I think the SEC needs to come out and say explicitly that FB and Twitter are not acceptable forms of public dissemination. If they don't, it starts to become a very subjective analysis of how many people are looking at a CEO's FB and Twitter and what the minimum threshold is for public dissemination.
    Dec 7, 2012. 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Improbable Math  [View article]
    The law of large numbers requires that each trail is independent and identically distributed. It's very difficult to argue that Apple's competitors have the same probability of success that Apple does at this point.
    Dec 6, 2012. 03:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Improbable Math  [View article]
    Apple also made $41 billion over the last 12 months and has more than enough cash to buy all of those companies (actually could buy them all twice). Your comparison doesn't really make a lot of sense.
    Dec 6, 2012. 01:06 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix (NFLX) won't raise prices to help finance a deal to buy content from Disney, according to Chief Content Office Ted Sarandos. While the company calls the Disney arrangement a "game changer" that will set the company apart, some analysts fret the deal increases the odds of a capital raise.  [View news story]
    Next they will come out and say they won't do a capital raise. How does this company intend to survive? Magic?
    Dec 6, 2012. 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Strikes Streaming Deal With Disney, Gains Exclusive Access To New Titles Beginning In 2016  [View article]
    I too am very skeptical. I think it's important to think about the incremental revenue that will result from this. It seems like the US market is pretty saturated in terms of people who want Netflix already having it. It's possible this deal brings some people that dropped the service back, but that won't happen for 3 years and given the speculation on what they paid for this deal, it's hard to imagine it will be profitable.
    Dec 4, 2012. 08:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volatile Netflix Is A No Go For Investors  [View article]
    You talk like shorting is an incredibly evil act when it provides more liquidity to the market and acts as a check to prevent prices from deviating too far from the fundamental values. There are plenty of bad and fraudulent companies out there and those companies should be exposed.

    As for today's NFLX news, I'm pretty sure no one saw that coming and if you did, then you should probably be reported to the SEC. Also, I hardly think a 15% upward move in the stock price should be confirmation of your thesis.
    Oct 31, 2012. 09:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com (CRM): FQ2 EPS of $0.42 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $731.6M (+34% Y/Y) beats by $3.3M. Expects FQ3 revenue of $773M-$777M and EPS of $0.31-$0.32 vs. consensus of $771.3M and $0.34. Expects FY13 (ends Jan. '13) revenue of $3.025B-$3.035B and EPS of $1.48-$1.51 vs. consensus of $3.02B and $1.49. Shares -2.6% AH. (PR[View news story]
    At least report their GAAP guidance as well. This is just extremely misleading.
    Aug 23, 2012. 04:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Executive Out, Massive Insider Buy: What's Going On?  [View article]
    Doubtful unless Jay Hoag wants to get a Wells Notice. Not exactly good for business...
    May 11, 2012. 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) resumes trading down 33.1% AH after reporting weak revenue for FQ2 and lowering its guidance mark for full-year results.   [View news story]
    David Einhorn vs. Steve Mandel, Einhorn wins
    May 2, 2012. 04:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment