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  • Do Low Interest Rates Make Stock PEs Cheap? [View article]
    I'm thinking added political uncertainty... Ergo Cos. holding/hoarding cash... Looks good on the balance sheet in the short term... Real economy does need to catch up... I do realize this was posted a month later.... Gotta' figure out a way to reinvest in a way that makes sense or give it back.
    Jun 4, 2012. 08:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Low Interest Rates Make Stock PEs Cheap? [View article]
    Very prescient fox 2. We just got that 10% correction. Lots of macro uncertainty. No one seems to know where the heck to put their money. 10 year below 1.5. Wow... Whadda' ya guys thing? Pundits in the press Gartman etc. are thinking QE3. Can't wait to get the Nov. elections out of the way here in the states and see to what extent things settle down domestically.
    Jun 4, 2012. 06:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's 3 Misguided Comments About Berkshire Hathaway [View article]
    Definitely not a world beater lately. As Buffet has mentioned, It becomes increasingly difficult to perform using a value focus as the amount of money you have increases. Hence the "Elephant Gun" reference he uses. I don't think he necessarily likes to hunt Elephants, but does so out of necessity to his fiduciary responsibility. His possible investment universe has shrunk incredibly in the years since Berkshire became a public company. He manages too much money! I think Buffet should resign, turn everything over to Munger or the mystery successor and start a new fund with 50-100 mil. If he does that I'm definitely in and would be begging him for a job. LOL. I also have a hunch Buffet is his own harshest critic; when he reviews his missteps in his annual reports, it almost reads like a Catholic schoolboy in a confessional. He learns from his mistakes, tries not to do them again, focuses on the positive reinforcement of his successes while still knowing he's not perfect and will make some more dumb decisions in the future. He has always seemed to have an innate ability to be brutally honest with himself. Its all about RBI not necessarily batting average.
    Apr 27, 2012. 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Low Interest Rates Make Stock PEs Cheap? [View article]
    Re: Faber... I think care should be taken with RE. Leverage can Indeed cause specific RE vehicles to go down more than 99%. Be especially wary of REITs' structures. I worked for now non-existent Thornburg Mortgage. They had tight underwriting and accordingly great mortgages that they kept on their own books. What blew it up was the trading Alt A products that collapsed with the financial crisis. As trading credit lines were backed by the good in shop mortgages, creditors basically decided to blow Thornburg out as everyone came to realize Alt A was an oxymoron. So... Yes you can loose 100%. Home ownership in general is good for our society, but 3% down GSE sponsored loans do not constitute a skin in the game ownership mentality IMHO. It engenders an unfair market place as well as seedy players and accordingly fraud. Off the soapbox; hope I added a little context.
    Apr 26, 2012. 03:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Low Interest Rates Make Stock PEs Cheap? [View article]
    Have noticed that here in the Greater Phoenix Metro area. The value play on a macro level is residential RE IMHO; the issue is managing many single family homes with out too much slippage over a 5-10 year period. This has never really been done on a large scale before, but there are a some first movers out there. There are many current and soon to be renters out there and when you normalize property prices to current supply and demand and historic income levels it really starts to make sense... The rental/cost to own spread is creeping up here. Agree that the "new normal" is here. Just gotta apply those first principles in new ways...
    Apr 24, 2012. 10:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Low Interest Rates Make Stock PEs Cheap? [View article]
    Great point... If I may also add that Companies are reluctant to invest due to Policy uncertainty (especially Economic and Healthcare). People are increasingly expensive to invest in and you've got to do the TVM/CAPM analysis. My line of thinking is that we will have less cash hording after the election....
    Apr 24, 2012. 03:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's 3 Misguided Comments About Berkshire Hathaway [View article]
    Buffet is about asset allocation. His belief, which the Author eloquently illustrates above, is that he can get a better rate of return over the long term by reinvesting portfolio companies profits. He gets to be the big picture guy on the hill and see out value opportunities. He did do a stock buyback, as he decided that BK was undervalued, and could not immediately find a better opportunity for the cash. As for the retirement account.... Over the long term it makes sense (some one still working and planning to retire in 10-20 years. As people get older they should switch to more fixed income/dividend product as a general rule. Cramer vs Buffet to me really boils down to a difference of Style. Cramer bats a lower percentage and is more of a power hitter, Buffet has a higher RBI hitting doubles.
    Apr 11, 2012. 04:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's 3 Misguided Comments About Berkshire Hathaway [View article]
    Cramer is a Hedgie/Trader. The lack of a well thought out larger context is a major caveat emptor for viewers who can't supply one themselves. He can be a great idea guy, but like always, do you own thinking.
    Feb 29, 2012. 11:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying a few distressed homes and renting them out could be the best investment one could make right now, says Warren Buffett on CNBC (speaking like a man who has never had to chase someone down for rent), renewing last year's prediction that this year will be the start of the housing recovery.  [View news story]
    I think there are quality prospective tenants out there if you screen right. 10% management fees make sense to free up time for more constructive endeavors, but ouch!!! the long term slippage of that 10%. Low cost structure private REIT structured right could be very interesting. The cost of rent vs. own is becoming very out of whack in some markets (esp here in the greater Phoenix Metro). Buffet's simply finding value, he want's to own forever if possible. He also manages too much money to really take this opportunity on. Build a private REIT that is well managed, run it up to about a Bill value and I'm sure Buffet would buy (at the right price of course).
    Feb 27, 2012. 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Undervalued Takeover Targets For Consideration [View article]
    Perhaps buy Facebook? Seriously, isn't a lot of that 100b in foreign countries and accordingly would incur tax if repatriated? If paid as a dividend do that get around the tax? Also, acquirers overpay for acquisitions in the vast majority of cases. Apple, let's repatriate some profit and pay a div.
    Feb 4, 2012. 01:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "Facebook's (FB) float: a lesson in how to make $5B and not cede any control," tweets Katherine Rushton, who writes while Mark Zuckerberg owns a 28.4% stake, he will have 56.9% of the voting rights, giving him total control over board selections, mergers, divestiture of assets, and who will control the company in the event of his death.  [View news story]
    Poor corporate governance setup (from a shareholder point of view). It can work if you have the right person in charge; ie. Buffet. Is Zuckerberg that 'kinda Guy? Is Facebook really all that? Time will tell.
    Feb 2, 2012. 12:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons From Lincoln, Grant, Cleveland And McKinley On The Economic Crisis [View article]
    Great point. Also; with current executive compensation structures, MGMT had/still has a high incentive to effectively pump and dump the stock during their tenure (no real long term thinking/incentive), which does not create create a fertile ground for the first C (character).
    Jan 31, 2012. 08:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Mistakes Even Smart Investors Make And How To Avoid Them': Larry Swedroe And The Zen Of Passive Investing [View article]
    A little Buffet back at 'ca
    " If I were working with a very small sum ... I'd be doing almost entirely different things than I do. Your universe expands -- there are thousands of times as many options if you're investing $10,000 rather than $100 billion, other than buying entire businesses. You can earn very high returns with very small amounts of money. Everyone can't do it, but if you know what you're doing, you can do it." - Buffet
    I think we're comparing apples and oranges with the key distinction being you referring to larger institutional money (both MF and Hedgies). Even Malkiel gives a tacit nod to the success of guy's like Buffet in the new addition of Random Walk. I think it gets to a point where there is too much money, no real mgmt skin in the game and it becomes all about fees and relative performance benchmarks. They playground is also accordingly more info symmetric. Interested on your take...
    Jan 31, 2012. 05:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Mistakes Even Smart Investors Make And How To Avoid Them': Larry Swedroe And The Zen Of Passive Investing [View article]
    Hi DeepV. The fact that this thread exists should give us assurance that quality value guys should continue to outperform over longer time frames. Consider that mfs and etfs are constrained by definition to pick obvious dogs along with possible winners. Also, managers are handcuffed exponentially as the amt of money managed increases. That isn't to say that author's method isn't right for a lot of reasons, though perhaps for different reasons than the author suggests.
    Jan 29, 2012. 03:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arizona is the latest state to take aim at the mortgage modification practices of Bank of America (BAC). Bloomberg reports the bank negotiated at least 12 secret settlements with borrowers that include non-dispargement clauses. The AG's office is asking a court to block those parts of the settlements and require the bank to turn over all the agreements.  [View news story]
    Always thought we AZians were a little more libertarian than that. I Need to read the full article... Wow ! a 40 year @ 2 percent! That's basically free money. Seems to be part of the combined states suit re: countrywide's earlier naughtiness.
    Jan 29, 2012. 02:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment