knjpollard

knjpollard
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • Crude oil closes below $40, no relief in sight for oil industry pain  [View news story]
    I wonder sometimes if the OPEC folks are thinking about driving US Oil stocks to bottom, then buy, then announce "we are returning supply back to normal levels...."
    Dec 4, 2015. 05:58 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pitney Bowes's Dividend Cut: At Least That's Over With  [View article]
    I accumulate it in mid 14s
    Jun 27, 2013. 08:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • mREIT Financing And Declining Interest Rate Spreads  [View article]
    I invest in REM, so I'm definitely interested in following when we might predict a drop in yields and/or in the stock prices of the stocks listed here. I think I'm spreading some risk with REM as opposed to investing with any one of these stocks, but I I'd like to see comments about that.
    Mar 12, 2013. 07:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Bullet-Proof Dividend Growers Yielding 5%  [View article]
    I think some of these stocks are good choices. I like PAA, BCE, and PM ; However, I think that SDY and HDV ETFs should have a fair share of of the div-basket if you want a solid dividend, and you want to beat the market too.

    If you chart SDY and HDV along side SPY, VTI, DIA, QQQ for the last 2 years you'll see what I mean. The HDV EFT is relatively new, but it appears to be the best overall performer for the last 2 years.

    I just rolled two 401k accounts and I'm planning my div-basket like this; allocate 50% to HDV and then 50% to equal weighted to high dividends such as PM, T, BMY, PAA, & BCE.

    I'm thinking about the REM ETF as well, but I will treat it as a equal weighted stock in my div-basket.

    Have "fund" with your div strategy...pun intended.
    Mar 10, 2013. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Undervalued Gold Miners Highlighted In Barron's  [View article]
    I'm thinking we'll see AUY rebound. If you're thinking long I have no doubt AUY will reach 19 or 20 but its a "when" question. It the strongest gold stock in terms of fundamentals. I think buying some at the current 13.86 isn't a bad play. I own some SAND and it is really taking a beating right now. May sell half of SAND and place on AUY.
    Mar 5, 2013. 04:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks And Gold: A Tale Of 2 Markets  [View article]
    I don't think gold is in a bubble, but I think we don't give enough credit to gold jewelry as the main demand driver for physical gold.

    I still think the gold price is largely driven by what people will still pay for it in retail stores. Everything else we're correlating to the price of gold are just things that impact people buying gold jewelry in retail stores. I think we tested 2000+ and retail sales started to dip. It came back down because people simply weren't willing to pay that much in retail stores.

    I've seen articles, projecting these 3000k+ gold prices and it's just silly. Everyone on the planet would just stop buying it in retail outlets. That is where 75% of the tonnes go. If 75% of the demand just stops then the price would plummet until people started buying again.

    In summary, shouldn't we be looking at trends with respect to retail sales of gold and things that may impact those trends?
    Feb 26, 2013. 05:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gold And Silver Failed To Rebound, For Now, And What To Expect This Week  [View article]
    Right now, I think we’ve found the high-end of the Goldilocks zone in terms of the 1577 price - pun intended. I suspect we’ll see some volatile price swings between 1400 and 1750 for a few years. I’ve read people saying things like gold is going to $3000, $5000, $8000, and even $10,000. When I read that I'm perplexed. I'm thinking it will never ever do that. Why? Because then my wife can’t or won’t buy it!

    It shouldn’t be a shock to anyone that 75% of all gold coming out of the ground goes to manufacture jewelry sold in retail stores in every country. There are other areas of demand for gold, but they all currently pale in comparison to the demand generated as a result of people simply buying jewelry. I try to keep that in mind when I'm looking for variables, which may point to where the price is going next.

    I’m currently looking for long opportunities to buy metal streamer stocks like RGLD, SAND, & FNV. And I like miner AUY because they know how to get it out of the ground at a good profit margin. In terms of supply side, cost is something to keep your eye on. If miners can’t get good grade ore out the ground at a decent cost then supply will diminish as many gold miners fall to the wayside over time.
    Feb 25, 2013. 05:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: Is It Time For Everyone To Just Give Up?  [View article]
    I think there are a lot of considerations when talking about how to invest in gold, but I feel the most important thing to understand is what drives demand for physical gold. It is a very emotional material. Someone once said, “why do they even keep pulling that stuff out of the ground.” Well, I have an answer, “it’s because my wife loves the stuff!”

    Everyone loves this shiny material that jewelry manufactures mold into neat little shapes for us. If you own a gold watch, ring or necklace, you know it just feels good on your person. And that’s because it is a symbol of status and wealth -- it has and always will be that. This material is ingrained in our cultural, and our very psyche. For that reason, miners will continue to pull the stuff out of the ground as long as we exist here with a means to buy it, and there exists a means for them to obtain at a reasonable profit.

    It shouldn’t be a shock to anyone here that about 75% of all gold coming out of the ground goes to manufacture jewelry sold in retail stores. There are other areas of demand for gold, but they all currently pale in comparison to the demand generated as a result of people simply buying jewelry. I try to keep that in mind when I'm reeling about what variable to use as an indicator for the the next gold price. I find myself asking basic questions like, do people have more disposable income to spend on jewelry now than they did last year? Are there factors like fear that may cause them to hold on to that money this year instead of buying jewelry?

    Retail demand for gold did soften and side ways we went, right?. I expect people will buy less jewelry in 2013 than 2012. Since retail is the biggest driver for demand the price will probably go down somewhat. However, if supply is diminished it could maintain the price with a lower or flat retail demand.

    At the moment, I think we've found the the Goldilocks zone in terms of the 1577 price - pun intended. I suspect we’ll see some price swings between 1500 and 1750 over the next 18 to 36 months.

    In summary, stats tell us the gold demand is largely driven by retail, and though other areas of demand may pick up, I don’t expect that demand to drive up the gold prices in the near term. This may present good buying opportunities now for long investors looking to profit in 18-36 months.
    Feb 25, 2013. 05:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
8 Comments
8 Likes