'on July 17th that a historic reversal was at hand in Oil has Peaked, Banks have Bottomed, ' 'I believe there is a secular bull trend in commodities and indeed emerging markets' 'Although there will be volatile ' Bull Trap' rallies, the uptrend has been decisively broken and I'd avoid long exposure '
'Although we are in a structural bear market that will last well into the next decade... it's now a good bet that on a 12m view, US equities will be materially higher from here.'
Hm, understand your reasoning , but the problem with that kind of analysis is that you will be constantly switching between all sorts of secular and non-secular trends. Also, while i can't deny the existence and growing influence of sector rotation by hedge funds and other large institutional investors, I will certainly not adopt to their approach and trade in and out of my positions whenever THEY feel like changing moods. And finally, that 'money market funds' argument is a bit of a stretch. a lot if not most of the assets held in these 'money market funds' are higly illiquid paper that cannot be sold - and that finances to a alarge extent the big banks and keeps their house of cards intact - sort of. So you might in fact not see large outflows from there anytime soon
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'on July 17th that a historic reversal was at hand in Oil has Peaked, Banks have Bottomed, '
Aug 05 09:24 am
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All Comments by fxtrader07 »GM May Hit $200 Before Oil Does [View article]
'I believe there is a secular bull trend in commodities and indeed emerging markets'
'Although there will be volatile ' Bull Trap' rallies, the uptrend has been decisively broken and I'd avoid long exposure '
'Although we are in a structural bear market that will last well into the next decade... it's now a good bet that on a 12m view, US equities will be materially higher from here.'
Hm, understand your reasoning , but the problem with that kind of analysis is that you will be constantly switching between all sorts of secular and non-secular trends. Also, while i can't deny the existence and growing influence of sector rotation by hedge funds and other large institutional investors, I will certainly not adopt to their approach and trade in and out of my positions whenever THEY feel like changing moods.
And finally, that 'money market funds' argument is a bit of a stretch. a lot if not most of the assets held in these 'money market funds' are higly illiquid paper that cannot be sold - and that finances to a alarge extent the big banks and keeps their house of cards intact - sort of. So you might in fact not see large outflows from there anytime soon