fxtrader07's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/107326/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/136182-the-case-for-getting-short?source=feed#comment-496028 496028 looking at the pattern, it smells like a stinky normal a-b-c corrective pattern and if it really is, it will top out either at 1000 (SPX) or 1100 (SPX). likley, it vwill be 1.050 in the sp500.
longer term, this market will likely revisit the match lows and go lower - 400-500 would be my best guess.
that being said, you still could make money in individual stocks and corporate bonds without shorting anything.
However, I will scale into spome otm shorts here for protection.
remember, the heaviest rally off the 1932 lows went 75-80% that's tmhe maximum upside that i give this market off the march 09 lows and if it gets near to 60% i will sell 80% of my stocks and take 50% of the proceeds to go short the overall market]]> Fri, 08 May 2009 16:13:08 -0400 looking at the pattern, it smells like a stinky normal a-b-c corrective pattern and if it really is, it will top out either at 1000 (SPX) or 1100 (SPX). likley, it vwill be 1.050 in the sp500.
longer term, this market will likely revisit the match lows and go lower - 400-500 would be my best guess.
that being said, you still could make money in individual stocks and corporate bonds without shorting anything.
However, I will scale into spome otm shorts here for protection.
remember, the heaviest rally off the 1932 lows went 75-80% that's tmhe maximum upside that i give this market off the march 09 lows and if it gets near to 60% i will sell 80% of my stocks and take 50% of the proceeds to go short the overall market]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101977-14-beaten-up-financials-that-now-offer-real-value?source=feed#comment-291257 291257 I would not count on ANY insider purchases prior to Mid/End September! they were made in a different world following different assumptions.
and you will notice that aftef end of august hardly ANY insider bought a single share in the companies on your list.
go figure.]]> Mon, 27 Oct 2008 05:16:52 -0400 I would not count on ANY insider purchases prior to Mid/End September! they were made in a different world following different assumptions.
and you will notice that aftef end of august hardly ANY insider bought a single share in the companies on your list.
go figure.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101185-why-stock-market-volatility-is-perfectly-natural?source=feed#comment-288416 288416 thisa is going to stay here for at least 2 more months imho. yes, fears and uncertainties about economy play a role, too. but only a secondary one.
people simply search for reasons - 'there must be some fundamental reason for the low stock/bond prices'. Yes and no. there isn'tnot for THESE low prices of many (not all) stocks and bonds. except if you expect a complete collapse of the world economy. but then again - the prices of all stocks and bonds are still way too high.
so, markets try to price the probabilty of survival and of armageddon. the human brain cannot think in terms of probabilities. it cannot handle a 70% chance or a 80% or 90%. so you have these wild swings and you have all this liquidation going on.
where will it sto?
i have no clue. it may right here. or 20% lower, or 60% lower. wtf do i know? wzhat i do know though, is that economic armageddon has perhaps a 5% probability. so with 95% probability, most bonds and many stocks will be much much higher a year from now]]> Thu, 23 Oct 2008 03:52:36 -0400 thisa is going to stay here for at least 2 more months imho. yes, fears and uncertainties about economy play a role, too. but only a secondary one.
people simply search for reasons - 'there must be some fundamental reason for the low stock/bond prices'. Yes and no. there isn'tnot for THESE low prices of many (not all) stocks and bonds. except if you expect a complete collapse of the world economy. but then again - the prices of all stocks and bonds are still way too high.
so, markets try to price the probabilty of survival and of armageddon. the human brain cannot think in terms of probabilities. it cannot handle a 70% chance or a 80% or 90%. so you have these wild swings and you have all this liquidation going on.
where will it sto?
i have no clue. it may right here. or 20% lower, or 60% lower. wtf do i know? wzhat i do know though, is that economic armageddon has perhaps a 5% probability. so with 95% probability, most bonds and many stocks will be much much higher a year from now]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101191-nothing-good-will-come-of-bankers-being-in-control?source=feed#comment-288411 288411 make no mistake: the prupose is not to save the banks as such - the purpose is to make them lend again to the real economy. if bailout packages cannot achieve that goal, then other measures must be taken. and when push comes to shove it means to throw out the John Thains and Dimons and Kovacevics and all the other crooks and force the banks to do their actual business. the goal is noot to restore profitability at banks. the instant goal must be to keep the economy going. ]]> Thu, 23 Oct 2008 03:27:01 -0400 make no mistake: the prupose is not to save the banks as such - the purpose is to make them lend again to the real economy. if bailout packages cannot achieve that goal, then other measures must be taken. and when push comes to shove it means to throw out the John Thains and Dimons and Kovacevics and all the other crooks and force the banks to do their actual business. the goal is noot to restore profitability at banks. the instant goal must be to keep the economy going. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99443-quitting-the-hedge-fund-game-mark-sellers?source=feed#comment-284522 284522
the rule#1 means not to lose money - in the sense of a permanent impairment of capital. it does not at all mean that you only buy things that go up in value immediately!

so sellers closing the fund simply means he does not want redemptions to force him to realize losses on sound investments. that's the big advantage of berkshire: it 's investments can go down - and big, but people can't take their money (insurance premiums) out.

and, btw., one of Seller's biggest positions is MCF. and boy, does this company sell very cheap compared to what it is actually worth!

such artciles are below your level, felix - or may be, some other by you simply were positive exceptions? you decide.]]> Fri, 17 Oct 2008 10:57:10 -0400
the rule#1 means not to lose money - in the sense of a permanent impairment of capital. it does not at all mean that you only buy things that go up in value immediately!

so sellers closing the fund simply means he does not want redemptions to force him to realize losses on sound investments. that's the big advantage of berkshire: it 's investments can go down - and big, but people can't take their money (insurance premiums) out.

and, btw., one of Seller's biggest positions is MCF. and boy, does this company sell very cheap compared to what it is actually worth!

such artciles are below your level, felix - or may be, some other by you simply were positive exceptions? you decide.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99674-coming-soon-the-600-trillion-derivatives-emergency-meeting?source=feed#comment-284277 284277 the biggest danger is that the non-lending by banks leads to corporate defaults by otherwise sound companies which in turn would trigger CDS-events. The net-net amounts even in the case of LEH will be far, far less than the fear mongerers predict here. it may be anywhere bewteen 8 billion and 100 but that#s about it and even if a couple of counterparties were to default you may not even hear about it. restv assured, the BIS, the fed, ecb and the IMF are all in close contacts with the big players. the cds market may be absolutely intransparent and unregulated - but right here right now he powers that be will absolutely ensure that it will not go into a collapsing mode.
1 week from now, when the LEH case has been finally settled and the derivatives world has not turned into a supernova people will slowly start to realize that the wordl is not coming to an end. and all of a sudden, bank lending will slowly start again . and stock markets will see some heavy upward spikes.
too optimistic? maybe. but not unlikely. in any case, the staggering notional amounts involved seem to confuse people and lead them to underestimate the vast resources of the combined central banks]]> Fri, 17 Oct 2008 03:51:03 -0400 the biggest danger is that the non-lending by banks leads to corporate defaults by otherwise sound companies which in turn would trigger CDS-events. The net-net amounts even in the case of LEH will be far, far less than the fear mongerers predict here. it may be anywhere bewteen 8 billion and 100 but that#s about it and even if a couple of counterparties were to default you may not even hear about it. restv assured, the BIS, the fed, ecb and the IMF are all in close contacts with the big players. the cds market may be absolutely intransparent and unregulated - but right here right now he powers that be will absolutely ensure that it will not go into a collapsing mode.
1 week from now, when the LEH case has been finally settled and the derivatives world has not turned into a supernova people will slowly start to realize that the wordl is not coming to an end. and all of a sudden, bank lending will slowly start again . and stock markets will see some heavy upward spikes.
too optimistic? maybe. but not unlikely. in any case, the staggering notional amounts involved seem to confuse people and lead them to underestimate the vast resources of the combined central banks]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99959-countdown-of-manipulated-gold-price-running-out?source=feed#comment-284274 284274 Fri, 17 Oct 2008 03:25:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99968-three-reasons-the-stock-market-rally-won-t-last?source=feed#comment-283493 283493 so your points are valid - but they are not operationable, not actionable because apart from "things are very very bbad" you don't actually say anything specific.]]> Thu, 16 Oct 2008 05:02:02 -0400 so your points are valid - but they are not operationable, not actionable because apart from "things are very very bbad" you don't actually say anything specific.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99699-chesapeake-bites-mclendon?source=feed#comment-282682 282682 And, btw, if you think that at current NG prices drilling doesn't make money and production gets shut down left and right, then well, for how long do you think the NG prices will stay that low?
Aubrey has made really good forecasts of NG prices right a year ago and half a year agon and the company's hedges were structured accordingly. They are hedged for the downturn times this year and next and in part the year after. And if you believe NG will be at $6 3 years from now, then you will have seen a lot of companies going under till then. but i don't think CHK would be among them.]]> Wed, 15 Oct 2008 05:52:40 -0400 And, btw, if you think that at current NG prices drilling doesn't make money and production gets shut down left and right, then well, for how long do you think the NG prices will stay that low?
Aubrey has made really good forecasts of NG prices right a year ago and half a year agon and the company's hedges were structured accordingly. They are hedged for the downturn times this year and next and in part the year after. And if you believe NG will be at $6 3 years from now, then you will have seen a lot of companies going under till then. but i don't think CHK would be among them.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99131-nouriel-roubini-predicts-surprise-a-long-recession?source=feed#comment-277635 277635 hate to say it.]]> Thu, 09 Oct 2008 09:24:20 -0400 hate to say it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98971-what-s-causing-this-slow-motion-market-crash?source=feed#comment-276526 276526
@Whidbey: true, the overall s&P p/e doesn't look that cheap. BUT: it already includes now the disastrous earnings of banks and insurers. And while these won't recover to 2006-2007 levels anytime soon, recover somewhat they will - bringing the S&P's p/e down again.
second, there are now tons of stocks trading for their cash in the bank, business for free. msft could buy itself at current stock prices with cash and free cash flow - and still have some money left. oil companies, oil servicers with strong order books and backlogs, fixed contracts for a couple years out trade at p/Es of 3-8, natgas companies at less than half of what their natgas is worth (and that's assuming todays low natgas prices to stay). mlps and royalty trusts trading with yields of 15-20%.
there is indiscriminate selling. make no mistake. either oil breaks down to $40-$50 for an extended period of time or these stocks are once in a lifetime bargains (and many are hedged anyway to quite an extent)
]]> Wed, 08 Oct 2008 04:01:45 -0400
@Whidbey: true, the overall s&P p/e doesn't look that cheap. BUT: it already includes now the disastrous earnings of banks and insurers. And while these won't recover to 2006-2007 levels anytime soon, recover somewhat they will - bringing the S&P's p/e down again.
second, there are now tons of stocks trading for their cash in the bank, business for free. msft could buy itself at current stock prices with cash and free cash flow - and still have some money left. oil companies, oil servicers with strong order books and backlogs, fixed contracts for a couple years out trade at p/Es of 3-8, natgas companies at less than half of what their natgas is worth (and that's assuming todays low natgas prices to stay). mlps and royalty trusts trading with yields of 15-20%.
there is indiscriminate selling. make no mistake. either oil breaks down to $40-$50 for an extended period of time or these stocks are once in a lifetime bargains (and many are hedged anyway to quite an extent)
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98564-36-opportunities-for-the-beginning-of-the-bull?source=feed#comment-275440 275440 i do hope the europeans get their acts together and start lowering rates pretty soon and create a pan-european rescue fund. or else the eurozone's economy will head over the cliff and maybe taking the euro currency with it. which would be no event to cheer because it would inflict another huge round of damages across the world]]> Tue, 07 Oct 2008 05:57:05 -0400 i do hope the europeans get their acts together and start lowering rates pretty soon and create a pan-european rescue fund. or else the eurozone's economy will head over the cliff and maybe taking the euro currency with it. which would be no event to cheer because it would inflict another huge round of damages across the world]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97962-hedge-funds-the-next-shoe-to-drop?source=feed#comment-270236 270236 In any case, the most important measure of them all is to get a central clearing house for the CDS market exactly to prevent a domino-effect.
And funny thing: there has been so much credit protection been written on certain companies that they vastly exceed the bonds that were insured - and deliverable, for that matter. Now, as I understand, when you bought a CDS, say on GM, then you go to your counterparty and deliver the bonmd which it is written on(!) and in exchange you get par value (or whatever the CDS-terms specify)
Now, I wonder from where will all the CDS-buyers take the bonds for delivery, if the notional amount exceeds the actual bonds outstanding by many many times? That could be really funny to watch. Or maybe not.]]> Wed, 01 Oct 2008 05:14:19 -0400 In any case, the most important measure of them all is to get a central clearing house for the CDS market exactly to prevent a domino-effect.
And funny thing: there has been so much credit protection been written on certain companies that they vastly exceed the bonds that were insured - and deliverable, for that matter. Now, as I understand, when you bought a CDS, say on GM, then you go to your counterparty and deliver the bonmd which it is written on(!) and in exchange you get par value (or whatever the CDS-terms specify)
Now, I wonder from where will all the CDS-buyers take the bonds for delivery, if the notional amount exceeds the actual bonds outstanding by many many times? That could be really funny to watch. Or maybe not.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96874-the-greatest-short-sale-in-history?source=feed#comment-264417 264417 ultimately, the treasury bonds will be the greatest short sale ever. But not just yet. and being early on this one by a couple of years means being wrong and getting killed.]]> Thu, 25 Sep 2008 02:47:01 -0400 ultimately, the treasury bonds will be the greatest short sale ever. But not just yet. and being early on this one by a couple of years means being wrong and getting killed.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97007-a-gigantic-buy-cramer-s-stop-trading-9-23-08?source=feed#comment-264416 264416 anyone following cramer's recommendation fully deserves to get, well, cramered]]> Thu, 25 Sep 2008 02:44:01 -0400 anyone following cramer's recommendation fully deserves to get, well, cramered]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96940-why-punish-the-whistle-blower?source=feed#comment-263209 263209 Wed, 24 Sep 2008 05:49:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/96795-go-for-the-gold-cramer-s-mad-money-9-22-08?source=feed#comment-262284 262284 but foirtunately, i have the guy on 'ignore'. Don't let your investment decisions and your financial health be influenced by an entertainer-cum-hedgef...]]> Tue, 23 Sep 2008 08:29:23 -0400 but foirtunately, i have the guy on 'ignore'. Don't let your investment decisions and your financial health be influenced by an entertainer-cum-hedgef...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96870-why-i-bought-aig-last-week?source=feed#comment-262260 262260 as I see it, the warrant structure has already been chosen for the fed to have the option to not take AIG over. In any case AIG below $3 looks like obe of the best opportunities in finaical stocks out there because further downside imho is almost non-existant. except, if you expect financial armageddon. But then again, my small, speculative stake in AIG might be the least I will worry about.]]> Tue, 23 Sep 2008 08:11:01 -0400 as I see it, the warrant structure has already been chosen for the fed to have the option to not take AIG over. In any case AIG below $3 looks like obe of the best opportunities in finaical stocks out there because further downside imho is almost non-existant. except, if you expect financial armageddon. But then again, my small, speculative stake in AIG might be the least I will worry about.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96659-ban-on-short-selling-could-have-negative-consequences-for-options-market?source=feed#comment-261521 261521 If I weigh the benefits and costs it is clearly preferable to force market makers to play by some sort of rules at least.
And if you are an investor, you usually need not hedge your position by buying puts: if you think the stock is worth holding at 50$/share, you will love to buy more at 30$ and you won't sell at $20, except if the business has deteriorated so much as that the stock is a sell. but then you sell it - you need not hedge it.]]> Mon, 22 Sep 2008 11:50:36 -0400 If I weigh the benefits and costs it is clearly preferable to force market makers to play by some sort of rules at least.
And if you are an investor, you usually need not hedge your position by buying puts: if you think the stock is worth holding at 50$/share, you will love to buy more at 30$ and you won't sell at $20, except if the business has deteriorated so much as that the stock is a sell. but then you sell it - you need not hedge it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96507-ambac-collapse-anticlimax-of-the-week?source=feed#comment-261298 261298 Mon, 22 Sep 2008 09:20:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/96507-ambac-collapse-anticlimax-of-the-week?source=feed#comment-261138 261138 Mon, 22 Sep 2008 05:56:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/96265-sec-will-ban-short-selling-america-s-leaders-break-down?source=feed#comment-258692 258692 Imho you are probably one of the abusive shorters. You are lamenting pretty loud about the SEC's steps - your favourite toy gets taken away for making profits on the back of other people?

short selling has been abused as never before in history. No word from you about it. just weeping and crying foul now that the SEC at last cracks down.

oh Bill, come on! Short selling has been abused , coupled with an onslought of fear spreading, fals rumours and concerted bair raids. It's telling that the hedge fund industry lobbied to get 'naked shorting' allowed again. Look at a stock like JOSB. depressed despite strong fundamentals. Short interest: 104.7% of float !!! 5% more shares short than exist in total!! instituional ownership: 171%!!! Oh, but this clearly abusive naked shoprting certainly had nothing to do with the stock's slump eh? and how come that it now jumped up in the face of a declining market.
Tom Browns article is far more objective than your weeping and lamenting.
But at least it is clear now, in which camp you are.
]]> Fri, 19 Sep 2008 05:38:28 -0400 Imho you are probably one of the abusive shorters. You are lamenting pretty loud about the SEC's steps - your favourite toy gets taken away for making profits on the back of other people?

short selling has been abused as never before in history. No word from you about it. just weeping and crying foul now that the SEC at last cracks down.

oh Bill, come on! Short selling has been abused , coupled with an onslought of fear spreading, fals rumours and concerted bair raids. It's telling that the hedge fund industry lobbied to get 'naked shorting' allowed again. Look at a stock like JOSB. depressed despite strong fundamentals. Short interest: 104.7% of float !!! 5% more shares short than exist in total!! instituional ownership: 171%!!! Oh, but this clearly abusive naked shoprting certainly had nothing to do with the stock's slump eh? and how come that it now jumped up in the face of a declining market.
Tom Browns article is far more objective than your weeping and lamenting.
But at least it is clear now, in which camp you are.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96046-the-gains-from-preventing-a-great-depression?source=feed#comment-257730 257730 Thu, 18 Sep 2008 05:43:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95949-analyst-oil-prices-inflated-by-50?source=feed#comment-257729 257729 The guy has absolutely not understood the siemic shift that has taken place: from valuing oil at todays production costs versus total replacment costs]]> Thu, 18 Sep 2008 05:40:01 -0400 The guy has absolutely not understood the siemic shift that has taken place: from valuing oil at todays production costs versus total replacment costs]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96033-financial-crisis-this-is-the-real-deal?source=feed#comment-257721 257721 frickin' unbelievable. It seems, the man could even be worse than GWB - and that MEANS something.]]> Thu, 18 Sep 2008 05:06:07 -0400 frickin' unbelievable. It seems, the man could even be worse than GWB - and that MEANS something.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95947-deflation-takes-the-reins?source=feed#comment-257711 257711 @dlaw: in a way there is a dollar shortage - but specifically, it is a cash shortage. There is an abundance of 'long term' dollars (i.e. treasury bonds).
That#s why the author is absolutely wrong and confusing things. A run for cash has led to broad liquidation and while that may continue it doesn't make a true trend. The central banks will fight the problems with printing dollars like mad. And much like everybody rushed into oil this summer and then was left holding the bag it will be the same with the dollar cash and treasury bills. It may tajke half a year or one year or even two but happen it will. and then you will feel the glut of dollars and the shortage of real assets and the flow will go into opposite direction with a vengeance.]]> Thu, 18 Sep 2008 04:33:57 -0400 @dlaw: in a way there is a dollar shortage - but specifically, it is a cash shortage. There is an abundance of 'long term' dollars (i.e. treasury bonds).
That#s why the author is absolutely wrong and confusing things. A run for cash has led to broad liquidation and while that may continue it doesn't make a true trend. The central banks will fight the problems with printing dollars like mad. And much like everybody rushed into oil this summer and then was left holding the bag it will be the same with the dollar cash and treasury bills. It may tajke half a year or one year or even two but happen it will. and then you will feel the glut of dollars and the shortage of real assets and the flow will go into opposite direction with a vengeance.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95786-aig-the-cramer-conspiracy-theory?source=feed#comment-257695 257695 Thu, 18 Sep 2008 03:50:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95868-aig-lives-another-day-shareholders-not-so-much?source=feed#comment-256721 256721 'anyone who claims he is happy to have bought a stock at $5 while it now trades at $3-$4 is deceiving himself and/or others.']]> Wed, 17 Sep 2008 06:34:35 -0400 'anyone who claims he is happy to have bought a stock at $5 while it now trades at $3-$4 is deceiving himself and/or others.']]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95868-aig-lives-another-day-shareholders-not-so-much?source=feed#comment-256720 256720 while you could make a case for a $8/share book value after dilution this doesn't guarantee you at all that aig will ever trade at $8 again. fire sales and those $17-$18 billion in interest payments on the fed bridge loan will go a long way in destroying book value.
Ihave no idea at what price AIG's shares might trade ayear from now, but my best guess is it will be somewhere between $1 and $5. if another dilutive loan is needed then áll bets are off, of course]]> Wed, 17 Sep 2008 06:33:56 -0400 while you could make a case for a $8/share book value after dilution this doesn't guarantee you at all that aig will ever trade at $8 again. fire sales and those $17-$18 billion in interest payments on the fed bridge loan will go a long way in destroying book value.
Ihave no idea at what price AIG's shares might trade ayear from now, but my best guess is it will be somewhere between $1 and $5. if another dilutive loan is needed then áll bets are off, of course]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95766-getting-directions-on-the-road-from-bad-to-worse?source=feed#comment-256708 256708 And boy, are there a heck of true bargains now in the equities markets - world wide.]]> Wed, 17 Sep 2008 06:08:18 -0400 And boy, are there a heck of true bargains now in the equities markets - world wide.]]>