fxtrader07

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    • Tue Sep 23rd 08:29 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Go For The Gold - Cramer's Mad Money (9/22/08)
      oh no! is that the signal for a significant top in gold already? when cramer advises to buy, it is usually high time to get out.
      but foirtunately, i have the guy on 'ignore'. Don't let your investment decisions and your financial health be influenced by an entertainer-cum-hedgef...
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    • Tue Sep 23rd 08:11 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why I Bought AIG Last Week
      I agree and went long AIg at 2.50, too.However, I expect those sales that you outlined to generate substantially less - likely just about 55-70 bn $. the reason is that everybody knows that AIg has to sell the stuff asap and that there are plenty of opportunities out there for people with cash.
      as I see it, the warrant structure has already been chosen for the fed to have the option to not take AIG over. In any case AIG below $3 looks like obe of the best opportunities in finaical stocks out there because further downside imho is almost non-existant. except, if you expect financial armageddon. But then again, my small, speculative stake in AIG might be the least I will worry about.
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    • Mon Sep 22nd 11:50 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ban on Short Selling Could Have Negative Consequences for Options Market
      I'd rather like to see some wider spreads in the options markets than allowing naked shorting of stocks to go on unabated by misusing the market maker exemption.
      If I weigh the benefits and costs it is clearly preferable to force market makers to play by some sort of rules at least.
      And if you are an investor, you usually need not hedge your position by buying puts: if you think the stock is worth holding at 50$/share, you will love to buy more at 30$ and you won't sell at $20, except if the business has deteriorated so much as that the stock is a sell. but then you sell it - you need not hedge it.
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    • Mon Sep 22nd 09:20 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ambac Collapse: Anticlimax of the Week
      as I see it, Moody#s willö be gone before all this is over. The helped to create this mess with their nonsensical AAA-ratings of RMBS and CDOs. They deepened the crisis with their flip-flopping and their strange downgrades (MBI/ABK; LEH!) at very strange junctures. Hank Paulson will not be amused about how Moody#s and S&P further complicated things and added to trouble by downgrading LEH and AIg while everybody trioed to put bailout plans togehther. I mean, for all the months they had already waited - they could have easily waited for another couple of days, not?
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    • Mon Sep 22nd 05:56 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ambac Collapse: Anticlimax of the Week
      Moody#s shut be shut down, as well as S&P. period. they did more harm than good and they continue to do so. their actions remind me by now of moronic daytraders flipping back anf forth - buying high, selling low, turning from bullish to bearish on a whim. same with Moody's upügrades - downgrades, most of them juyt in response to public pressure. Go figure. the sooner these ratings agencies cease to exist the betetr for everybody.
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    • Fri Sep 19th 05:38 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      SEC Will Ban Short Selling: America's Leaders Break Down
      Seems you are finally showing your true face, Bill. I will stop reading your articles from now on.
      Imho you are probably one of the abusive shorters. You are lamenting pretty loud about the SEC's steps - your favourite toy gets taken away for making profits on the back of other people?

      short selling has been abused as never before in history. No word from you about it. just weeping and crying foul now that the SEC at last cracks down.

      oh Bill, come on! Short selling has been abused , coupled with an onslought of fear spreading, fals rumours and concerted bair raids. It's telling that the hedge fund industry lobbied to get 'naked shorting' allowed again. Look at a stock like JOSB. depressed despite strong fundamentals. Short interest: 104.7% of float !!! 5% more shares short than exist in total!! instituional ownership: 171%!!! Oh, but this clearly abusive naked shoprting certainly had nothing to do with the stock's slump eh? and how come that it now jumped up in the face of a declining market.
      Tom Browns article is far more objective than your weeping and lamenting.
      But at least it is clear now, in which camp you are.
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    • Thu Sep 18th 05:43 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Gains from Preventing a Great Depression
      in a depression once every 83 years?? WTF?? as if you could really get such a pattern over the last 500 years where tremendous changes have occured. this is laughable, indeed.
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    • Thu Sep 18th 05:40 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Analyst: Oil Prices Inflated by 50%
      wowo, 50% overvalued. based on what argument/data? adding reserves, pumping and transporting them does certainly cost more than 45-50$/bl. Of copurse, not in the gulf states but pretty everywehere else. at $50 a lot of marginal supply gets killed instantly. and these are the guys who matter. except of you believe that the saudis can pump any amount they want to pump. and that they would do so especially at $50/bl. Sorry, but people like Simmons are way more credible with thgeir arguments than this guy who just makes a silly prediction. can oil fall to 40-50$? of course, short term, on speculation and liquidation. but not for long. the big oil majord won't supply it at that price. why should they? they have enough cash now to survive even with shutting down half of their production.
      The guy has absolutely not understood the siemic shift that has taken place: from valuing oil at todays production costs versus total replacment costs
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    • Thu Sep 18th 05:06 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Financial Crisis: This Is the Real Deal
      Yes. I do. McCain the bum said AIg should be allowed to fail and talked about moral hazard. What a display of utter economic dumbness and ignorance. It's like refusing to let the firebrigade put off the fire in the city centre because the homeowner ther played with fire and should not be encouraged further. heck, who cares if the entire city burns down. I am sure McCain is diversified enough with - how many 5-7?- houses to weather it.
      frickin' unbelievable. It seems, the man could even be worse than GWB - and that MEANS something.
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    • Thu Sep 18th 04:33 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Deflation Takes the Reins
      @Chris B: you are spot on. Ignoring fundamentals because some trend (short-term, intermediate?) goes in the other direction has zero to do with investing and and investor#s point of view. the most successful ones ignore the crowd repeatedly. If one just follows trends one will at best get average returns. most likely one will lose out terribly
      @dlaw: in a way there is a dollar shortage - but specifically, it is a cash shortage. There is an abundance of 'long term' dollars (i.e. treasury bonds).
      That#s why the author is absolutely wrong and confusing things. A run for cash has led to broad liquidation and while that may continue it doesn't make a true trend. The central banks will fight the problems with printing dollars like mad. And much like everybody rushed into oil this summer and then was left holding the bag it will be the same with the dollar cash and treasury bills. It may tajke half a year or one year or even two but happen it will. and then you will feel the glut of dollars and the shortage of real assets and the flow will go into opposite direction with a vengeance.
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    • Thu Sep 18th 03:50 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      AIG: The Cramer Conspiracy Theory
      Felix, your irgnorance is telling. Naked shorting IS a huge problem as even the SEC reluctantly admits. Just look at JOSB . 107% of the float is shorted! 107%!!! even for you it should be evident that this is impossible if rules were enforced. But they are not and hence these illegal practices can continue. That Cramer now rants about it, is absurd however, because many of his hedgefund friends have profited enormously exactly by relentless shorting and by taking advantage of the SEC's ignorance and inactivity.
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    • Wed Sep 17th 06:34 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      AIG Lives Another Day; Shareholders? Not So Much
      sorry for the typos. it should have read
      'anyone who claims he is happy to have bought a stock at $5 while it now trades at $3-$4 is deceiving himself and/or others.'
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    • Wed Sep 17th 06:33 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      AIG Lives Another Day; Shareholders? Not So Much
      @user 260553: anyone who claims he is happy to have bought a stock at $% while it now trades at $3-$4 is deveiving himself and/or others.
      while you could make a case for a $8/share book value after dilution this doesn't guarantee you at all that aig will ever trade at $8 again. fire sales and those $17-$18 billion in interest payments on the fed bridge loan will go a long way in destroying book value.
      Ihave no idea at what price AIG's shares might trade ayear from now, but my best guess is it will be somewhere between $1 and $5. if another dilutive loan is needed then áll bets are off, of course
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    • Wed Sep 17th 06:08 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Getting Directions on the Road from Bad to Worse
      sorry, safe as treasuries might see, short term, they are absolutely expensive right now. and a lot of that money in the money market funds is from corporations which drew their bank credit lines and parked the money. because otherwise those credit lines would have been shut.
      And boy, are there a heck of true bargains now in the equities markets - world wide.
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    • Wed Sep 17th 06:04 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      AIG Buyout: In the Long Term, We'll Pay For This
      The fed makes a 12% loan on 85 billion$ with essentially zero risk (backed by all of AIG's assets) and on top of it gets a 80% stake in AIG.
      Go that?? They get 17BILLION $ in interest income from this!!! That#s 17 billion return on an invested capital of zero. If that isn't a bargain for the fed, i don't know what is
      View article »
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