fxtrader07

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    • Fri Sep 12th 03:44 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Now Is the Time to Be Buying Goldcorp
      @dlaw: gg is down 50% while the 'yellow metal with few industrial uses' has fallen 25% (both from their respective peaks). You might want to look at the recent statements by the German Bundesbank, which is still the second largest gold holder in the world and their comments on gold's substantial role as an anchor and backer of a currency's value. Funny thing is, people sold everything related to 'industrial commodities# due to fears of a worldwide recession. And while paper money gets printed like mad and a 500 billion bailout of fannie and freddie gets underway, gold gets sold off. Go figure: banks have witten down 500 bn in impaired assets - and 500 bn will probably be replaced by taxpayers via the fannie/freddie bailout. asset destruction, deleveraging? sure. but that paper stuff gets replaced with new paper stuff instantly. The recent dollar rally has zero to do with a comeback of strength of the greenback . it's simply overwhelming short term money flows (capital repatriations from overseas investments). once that passes the dollar will see a terminal drop which little ammunition left to stem it. Gold will be at 2000$/oz within 5 years. Now, how would GG look then?
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    • Fri Sep 12th 03:38 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Now Is the Time to Be Buying Goldcorp
      well written, convincing article.
      One observation, though:
      '...there will be downward pressure on the stocks of quality commodity producers.'
      Well, maybe we have different measures of 'downward pressure' but to me there has been a bloodbath going on for the last couple of weeks in high quality commodity producers. Of course, that doesn't mean they couldn't fall even more, but to me there has been panic sellling and heavy liquidation going on like in almost no ther sector - except earlier in financials and homebuilders, perhaps
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    • Thu Sep 11th 06:26 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Street's Take on Banks' Loss Reserve Adequacy Mainly Half-Baked
      Thanks tom, for another very insightful article. To be honest, though, this stuff is too hard for me to really follow and understand, especially with all the tricks and maneuvres banks have at their disposal to hide and mask problems. I will therefore stick to my self-imposed rule and never ever invest in a banking stock.
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    • Wed Sep 10th 10:24 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Six Months of Changes Since the Last OPEC Meeting
      good article, though I doubt any of OPEC's numbers, and especially those coming from the Saudis. With no new major oil find and pumping relentlessly, Saudi Arabia's reserves stay flat year after year after year. Go figure, the Exxons and Conocos of the world will be very keen indeed to know more about this magic wand that is replacing every pumped barrel of oil instantly.- Bottom line: for all their talk of raising and lowering quotas, i don't believe they have pumped more oil in the first place . And therefore, they need not cut it now anyway. The proof for all those fancy pumping and reserve numbers will come a few years out when key producers such as mexico and Iran will either see irreversible further hefty drops in oil output (Mex) or lower exports because they need the stuff for themselves (iran). It could well be, that the world wakes up and sees the emperor has no clothes. $100/bl will look like a heck of a bargain at that time.
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    • Tue Sep 9th 07:47 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Grossed Out: Why Is It OK for Some People To Ask for Handouts?
      'Yet, when hedge fund managers Bill Ackman and David Einhorn publish honest analyses revealing various accounting gimmicks and corrupt business practices '
      Please! Give me a break! Ackman and Einhorn are unscrupoulos hedgefundmanagers who could not care less if they destroyed companies, jobs or billions worth of assets by their continued bashing and verbal attacks on the Monoliners and´other companies. And yes, you can destroy entire companies these days just by talking them down long and hard enough and with large enough media coverage. refinancing gets shut - game over, even if the companies are sound. Just read Marty Whitmans latest letter to shareholders. And marty, is an honest guy and a smart one. When he takes on aggresive shart raiders you should listen. instead of publishing your crappy hailing of crooks
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    • Tue Sep 9th 05:41 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is the Dollar Really King?
      The factors you outlined may play a role, BUT: asit stands: there has been heavy buying of Treasuries going on by many central banks of the world. Other currenciesd and gold have been aggressively sold and it is certainly not by coincidence, that 3 large US banks showed a breathtaking record-size increase in short positions in Silver and Gold right before the two fell like a rock (no pun intended). The severety ofb this rally has coordinated and well-timed cemntral bank intervention written all over it. AsI see it, it was the necessary precondition for the govt's takeover of fannie and freddie. had they done the same steps back in may or June, The dollar would have crashed off the lower boundaries of the charts. Now, though, it's rallying in the face of the treasury assuming a multi-hundred billion dollar liability. go figure.
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    • Mon Sep 8th 10:19 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Five Years of Oil Price in Stock Prices
      Paul&Shark, the only real guru,magician,piker,si... man has spoken.
      Sure. The author's article is at least based on some reason, historical observation and dot-connecting.
      Paul&$hark's view, obviously, is wild guessing after reading too many doom-articles
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    • Mon Sep 8th 05:28 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why the Panic over Fannie and Freddie?
      as i see it, the world's central banks first orchestraed a rapid rally of the dollar by buying tresuries in large amounts and selling gold and non-dollar currencies. With the greenback now fairly off its lows the treasury and walls treets banks feel safe enough to arrange a govt takeover of the GSEs that otherwise would have sunk the dollar to new lows and propelled gold way above 1.000$/oz. At one point reality will sink inface it, the US govt has just added a few trillion$ in debt to its balance sheet - what is that govt debt ceiling worth anyway? Why bother to ask Congress to approve the frequent upped ceilings, if they can get overriden by such action anyway? And make no mistake, they will find and try a way to get the holders of preferred shares of fannie and freddie come out unharmed, because these holders are mainly banks. I's sickening.
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    • Mon Sep 8th 05:20 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Time To Consider Oil's Homely Cousin, Natural Gas
      @dlaw: you don't have a clue, do you? NGas in a bubble? give me a break. probably the term 'bubble' is in his own bubble now. Go figure.
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    • Mon Sep 8th 05:13 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      This Is a Trader’s Market, Volatility Demands It
      Nope, it's a market where a patient, value oriented long term investor can scoop up some nice bargains every few days. 90-95% of daytraders lose their money sooner or later. So don't tell me that daytrading is any receipe for success here. It's a receipe for desaster in any market environment. In the current environement, you either stay out and hold cash and high quality bonds, or you put money to work in value bargains or you simply hold on to your stuff (if you have good reason to do so) for the long term. But don't get sucked into daytrading frenzy - it will kill your health, your time, your finances and fill the pockets of the very few who succed at it.

      When someonesuggests you daytrade, there are but two possibilities for that: Either, he is a successful daytrader - then his advice is basically to get another loser into the game to take money from. Or else, he is a losing daytrader (one of the 90%+) and then you should steer clear of his advice anyway.
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    • Mon Sep 8th 05:07 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Home Inventories Soaring? Not Exactly
      Tom, I don't know whether it is smart to dismiss inventories measured in months so quickly. After all, the number of units don't telle you anything about how fast this overhang might disappear. Second, I see from your graphs that supply is up or going sideways AND number of transactions has come hsrply down. But this is the state of affairs amid a 30% drop in prices from the peak, as you said. So that 30% drop obviously was only sufficient to let the situation not deteriorate too much. I wonder what price drop will be needed to clean things up again...
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    • Mon Sep 8th 05:00 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Rating Agency Incompetence Scales New Heights
      it becomes clearer dday by day that the ratings agencies more often than not do not have a clue. Funny thing is, they still get paid large amounts for their cluelessness. Others pay up for it big time. Now, who is the greater fool? The clueless or the clueless throwing money at the other clueless? Go figure.
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    • Fri Sep 5th 13:04 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why Commodities May Be Nearing a Turning Point
      @tweeder: there is always a bull market, somewhere and remember, Bill Gross just talks his book as anyone else does. he might do it in a more informed and competent manner than most - but still, he talks his book
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    • Fri Sep 5th 08:16 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Most Important Fact To Know About Oil Investing
      The marginal buyers and sellers matter - as in any market. And their motives and actions are almost unpredictable. So the author is absolutely right. However, i would add a second line to it: longterm oil supplies are going to get lower until they almost disappear and prices will reflect that. At one point oil will get only used for absolutely those purposes, where it cannot be replaced by any other matter. And no: driving heating, electricity generation do NOT belong to those puproses.
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    • Fri Sep 5th 08:08 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Precious Metals Manipulation: Lawyers Prepare for Battle
      very good article. Btw, all those talking about deflation should note two things: true deflation never happened over any extended period of time because it is the governments' worst enemy and the central banks' nightmare - and as milton friedman rightly pointed out, inflation (and hence deflation, too) is always a monetary phenomenon. So rest assured any govt and any central bank will inflate you and me out of any deflation in due time
      Second: deflation or not, most commodities get used up at an ever faster clip. recycling recovers some, but by no means all of those consumed metals. For people looking just a quarter or a year into the future, it will not matter - until it does. but for all others, the writing is there, clearly: unreplaceable, increasingly scarce and ofeten strategically important resources are getting consumed and in that course destroyed (gone forever) at wharp speed. I can well imagine that a few years from now the mining and oil companies will refuse to accept the paper futures markets as benchmark for real commodity transactions.
      silver will almost be gone completely 60-70 years from now, and with completely, I mean completely. mines exhausted, stockpiles depleted, no major discoveries anymore because it has all been discovered and mined by then. the price per ounce will be astronomical by that time.
      10years from now people might start to realize that in earnest - watch out above. you need not put 20% of your savings in silver- i would not advise that (even though i might do myself). But 5% in any case you should hold in PHYSICAL SILVER. It will be the ultimate diversification and protection - much better than goldwhich hasn't been consumed in any significant manner, hence it is all still there.
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