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fxtrader07
617 Comments
Calling a North American Palladium Bottom
fxtrader_2007
Calling a North American Palladium Bottom
Are you aware that by this strange construction of causes and effects you do not only accuse mgmt of outright planned share price manipulation and fraudulent SEC filings? But that you simply are way off the mark (no pun intended) by failing to address the one most obvious and most reasonable point of them all??
And this one is, plain and simple: PAL's mgmt screw it up completely and will run the company straight into the ground if it is allowed to continue.
As I see it, and is clear from the cash-flow statements, mgmt simply failed to generate sufficient cash from operations to keep the ever declining production running. In the current climate of credit squeeze they suddenly woke up and discovered that access to capital to keep the company running was getting very difficult. Now, at the end of the quarter they were almost running out of cash and hence, made this awful secondary that destroyed (diluted) shareholders' equity and put enormous pressure on the stock price.
If they did so intentionally as you assumed, they ought to get fired instantly and a class action lawsuit filed against them.
However, by looking at the development of this company in a PM and PGM bullmarket environment, I cannot help but conclude that the mgmt of PAL is simply one of the worst in industry, a bunch of incompetent managers that do serve only their own interests, i.e. living off shareholders' money as long as possible.
Rather than blindly pumping the stock you better wake up to realities at PAL before urging people to throw in their money.-
This stock should be avoided except for a short-term rebound trade, (though i would not bank on even that).
Because, regardless whether the q3 loss and the subsequent secondary offering were done by intention to depress the share price (robbing shareholders) or whether they were the result simply of mgmt's incompetence, the net effect is the same: a company, whose mgmt cannot and should not be trusted.
I know, we differ on that, but I side with the great Warren Buffet here, who is supposed to have said that investors should seek to own companies that even a monkey could run -- because eventually, one will. Now, the mining industry isn't one that a monkey will ever run successfully and PAL is a case in point.
First Solar's Rapidly Expanding Economies of Scale
Te is a buy-product in copper mining, yes, but it's not to be found in every copper mine! quite to the contrary!
the paper you have linked discusses potential environmental damage caused by FSLR's technology, broken panels etc. And btw, imho it downplays these risks considerably.
First Solar's Rapidly Expanding Economies of Scale
Have you even noticed that FSLR has to recycle each and every panel made by them? And that the costs for doing so might be substantially higher than projected and allowed for by the company? have you noticed that just one broken panel could cost the company huge amounts in litigations when the cadmium gets dispersed? Do you have an idea what such an event would mean for its future business? yep, it would fall off a cliff! contracts will be cancelled en masse. nobody would by it anymore, becuase nobody would risk to face asbestos-like claims. If i were ceo of a homebuilder offering homes with solar-panels inclueded, i certainly would not buy FSLR's panels. Which might explain why they have ZERO customers in the U.S. Well, Europe might be shut soon to them as well, precisely because of the Cd involved.
Slice it as you want - the risks to a major and potentially deadly hit to FSLR's business are enormous.
First Solar Will Top Estimates Due to Favorable Exchange Rate
First Solar Will Top Estimates Due to Favorable Exchange Rate
you even mention their "ramp-up of the plant in germany". I guess, the people over there in Frankfurt/Oder get paid in Dollars??
and the plants in Malaysia surely require a lot of local currency for construction and especially for running them later on.
which is what will be a huge problem going forward. The Rinngit is set to appreciate a lot - that means an explosion of costs for FSLR.
you will see that their profit margins will head sharply south over the coming years. If FSLR lives that long at all. They may very soon see their European business getting killed dut to their Cadmium-technology involved. Not to mention competition from silicon-based solar getting which are set to get a lot cheaper down the road and from companies like nanosolar.
There is a lot of of hot expectations built in the stock price - the P/E is abscene by any standards.
dot-com-mania insanity reloaded: your name is fslr.
E*Trade's Worth Much More Than This
maybe they put up a fight for a while.
but there or other beaten down financial stocks that never deserved that beating - while etrade probably trades near or even substantially above its (new) fair value
Chinese Industrial Waste Management: A Microcap Cash Cow
reading through their latest 10Q the company seems well on track, even though cash-flow went negative due to the investments undertaken.
any update from your side on the company?
First Solar Vulnerable to a Tellurium Shortage?
It's an absolute insane and nonsensical statement by the CFO and the people laughing over the Tellurium issue better listened and asked themselves just one little question: Regardless of the future demand of Te, how trustworthy is a management, its statements and financial figures if they tell this kind of absurd nonsense right at a conference call?
just think about it. I would not be surprised at all if somewhere down the road there will be accounting and balance sheet issues popping up at FSLR. No prediction, just mho.
First Solar Vulnerable to a Tellurium Shortage?
It's an absolute insane and nonsensical statement by the CFO and the people laughing over the Tellurium issue better listened and asked themselves just one little question: Regardless of the future demand of Te, how trustworthy is a management, its statements and financial figures if they tell this kind of absurd nonsense right at a conference call?
just think about it. I would not be surprised at all if somewhere down the road there will be accounting and balance sheet issues popping up at FSLR. No prediction, just mho.
Why I'm Selling U.S Gold Corp - For Now
the alpha content is not even ZERO, but NEGATIVE.
Trading junior gold exploration stocks is as silly as it gets
First Solar Vulnerable to a Tellurium Shortage?
Equally telling: a couple of posters have been calling outright for seekingalpha to censor/delete the article since it was "fraudulent" or "misrepresenting facts". incidentally none of them has even bothered to show the slightest "misrepresentatio... lie or whatsoever. Except for one poster citing a Berkely study 8which rather supports Mark Anthony, btw) the negative commentators have induldged only in personal attacks with a remarkable and complete lack of any substance, facts, proofs etc.
I urge seekingalpha to keep this article and not to succumb to people making hell of a noise with hardly anyone of them even knowing, obviously, what they are talking about
E*Trade's Worth Much More Than This
It surely does matter whether they have to write down 1bn, 3bn or more. But short term, it doesn't. The pure possibility that etrade could default and could get bk will send people rushing to shift their accounts to other brokers! Talk about a run!
In this market environment, the pure thought that i might not be able to act on my brokerage account because my broker screwed up and cannot operate anymore would force me to act immediately.
Etrade seems to be a company that an incompetent mgmt has truly run against the brick wall.
It's absolutely possible that etrade will get killed here once and forever.
Rather than debating whether a billion loss more or lkess could be handled by the company you had better started thinking whether it can handle a flight of its customers!
First Solar's Breakout Should Hold Up
FSLR spots an expensive and inferior cadmium-tellur technology. It will have to recycle each and every panel sold due to the cadmium built into them.
It may face potentially disruptive shortages of tellurium which is very scarce, used in many future technologies and teherefore may be subject to a sharp rise in prices. The company has repeatedly stated in its sec-filings that they have almost no hedges against rising commodity prices in general. In sharp contrast, the sales-contracts closed are almost all on a fixed-price basis. That alonecould put teh company under extreme pressure given the trends in commodity prices.
The costs-per-watt-numbers given in their press releases do not match with their sales and earnings filings with the SEC. That alone raises a huge red flag!
Given the euphoria and exuberance concerning the Solar industry as a whole, FSLR is an extremely high risk-low reward stock on a longer term perspective. Their earnmings are by no means "extraordinary&qu... as claimed by the author but rather mediocre. There is absolutely nothing in the fundamental picture justifying a >100 forward price-earnings-ratio.
The stock may rise further, short-term, driven by greedy short term oriented traders and momentum players as well as by short-squeezes. Longer term, the current price is ridiculously high bordering to obscenely overvalued.
I expect that 12-18 months from now, the bubble in this stock will most likely have burst and the stock price collapse towards 30-40$ if not lower
LDK Solar: The Soap Opera Continues
the SEC should carefully look into this matter - especially the transactions by hedge funds, big wall street firms and barron's and the WSJ.
whatever this Mr. Situ and Barron's may have intended, one thing did they certainly accomplish: the small investor got maximum hurt. They did not protect him, they did anything to get him out of the stock at the lowest possible point without any real and hard facts justifying the price action of the stock