fxtrader07

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    • Wed Sep 3rd 11:27 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Three Reasons Solar Sell-off May Be in Early Innings
      solar sell-off has just started?? Did the author even bother to look at the charts?`that supposed rally of STP, LDK etc. that he is talking about followed a hefty 50-70% decline prior to it. So you could argue the severe decline has resumed but certainly it hasn'T started the 'first innings' !
      Second: All that short-term speculation about obama!/McCain killing or not killing solar is just dumb. sorry to say it so explicit, but that's what it is. Solar is not a replacement of oil nor will $70, $100 or $150/bl decide the fate of solar. Solar is set to arrive in a big way due to the longer term trend of switching to renewable, clean alternative energy sources.
      Europe encourages solar while oil was at 30-40$/bl. that the USA completely missed the trend due to way too cheap gasoline and little incentives to develop solar is the USA's problem.
      Bottom line: hedgefunds and momentum crowd may chase solar stocks up or knock them down. longer term, the most robust and best managed ones will shine big time. So to some solars, it will be resumption iof a lethal downfall. To others, it will be another correction on the way up.
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    • Tue Sep 2nd 11:25 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How to Take Advantage of Cameco's Shopping Spree
      @cameco Jr.: I didn't and do not expect anything from the author. But if you post an article headline 'how to' you either follow up on that promise or you chose another headline. Rest assured I am not going to waste my time on another Mickey-Article now that I know that headline and content might be two different things entirely.
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    • Mon Sep 1st 12:43 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is This the Death of Gold & Silver Stocks? Part II
      this bragging by silly daytraders about their alleged profits is annoying, to say the least. Don't know why these spammers have to deposit their nonsense right here as commentaries to an article they never bothered to understand and never will understand.
      I agree with the author but I may add that owning physical silver should be another top priority for longterm investors. It may or may not pay off tomorrow or next year or even in five years. but in 10 or 20 its will feel like looking back from 1980 after buying gold at 35$ in 1970
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    • Mon Sep 1st 10:34 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Much Longer Can Money Managers Hang in Behind Energy?
      so, Bill, in essecne you look at the money flows to decide what investment to make? Or so I oversimplify? Because if you do, then you are no better than any other momentum chaser. You see, i don't care if the price of oil goes to 80, 90, 100 or 130 because at any of these prices many of the oil and gas companies are very profitable and would deserve much higher stock prices. I couldn't care less whether the hedge funds and momentum chasers and quants recognbize this a weel a quarter or a year from now. If COP continues its stock buybacks at current rates even assuming slightly declining profits and cash flows over the coming years, then I will be their only shareholder 10-15 years from now. go figure, what for do I need hedge funds, money managers and money flows?
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    • Mon Sep 1st 10:07 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Pulp Fiction: The Latest GDP Revisions
      just the latest in a whole series of data manipulation and outright statistical lies by the govt and its agencies. the agenda is simple: If the data are bad, make them look good, adjusting and massaging them until the pig looks like a beuty queen. If you can't do it, then stop publishing that data alltogether - e.g. the M3-figures which the fed stopped publishing right before the recent crisis hit. Go figure, they do know their timing - don't they?
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    • Fri Aug 29th 05:44 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Hedge Your Portfolio with Hurricane Stocks
      why should I hedge my investment portfolio against a hurricane at all?
      Isn't that just an excuse for putting on some speculative shortterm trades that may or may not work?
      I wonder...
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    • Fri Aug 29th 05:42 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      AIG and the Lunacy of GAAP Reporting
      thanks Tim travis, for the follow up. That's clarifying some points. However, i have a problem with your assumption that AIG will continue to grow its business (and even if, the rates might be much lower than in the past) and second, that prior RoEs should not be tataken at face value. Lots of these 'returns' were coming from what is now junk and causes all those writedowns. So i think, as for many banks, the 'normalized' (i.e. non-bubble) earnings and RoE numbers might in reality be significantly lower. add to that that the insurance business faces an almost unprecedented glut of money (driving premiums to low and sometimes unreasonably and absurdly low levels) and you have another thing to worry about. because AIG needs cash badly and that might lead to writing new business by sacrificing profitability and underwriting standards.. Imho, ABK and MBI (and in a somewhat different business segment, PRS) are the better plays for exploiting overly hefty GAAP-writedowns. AIG has too many other problems besides those issues for my taste. Won't touch it yet.
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    • Fri Aug 29th 05:29 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How to Take Advantage of Cameco's Shopping Spree
      Title of the article: How to take advantage of...
      so - your suggestion of how to ? is exactly - what?

      I could write an article titled 'How to win a million in las vegas every day' and it surely would get a lot of attention.
      And if I were to follow the author's path in suggesting an actual 'how to' i would state: chose the right numbers and hit big.
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    • Thu Aug 28th 07:27 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Silvercorp: Canadian Mining Profits in China
      Good article, but I had wished that the author had included the pretty severe issue of widespread recent power shortages and their negative impacts on SVM's operations. the company made a press release on the 8th of August that it experiences very significant power shortages for its major mine due to temporary and non-temporary shutdowns of coal-fired plants and that the situation will actually worsen for the Olympics period (till Sep 5th) and that it might face power shortages also thereafter. Clearly, this will virtually kill their production targets and estimates and also drive up costs.
      While I regard the stock groassly undervalued, too, I think these are noteworthy negative factors that should not be hidden or omitted.
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    • Wed Aug 27th 10:42 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      AIG and the Lunacy of GAAP Reporting
      Well, in principle, the author is right, BUT: Not all GAAP losses can and should be disussed away like that. As it stands, AIG has taken on far more risk at unreasonably low prices than they should have. And the problem is, NOBODY out there has yet a clue what the final outcome will be. If you want to take comfort in AIG's future loss estimates on their portfolio, please do, but I for my part won't. AIG's mgmt has proven time and again that it cannot be trusted. You may as well get another derivatives nuke blowing up.
      What is the 'correct' current value of AIg based on their expected normalized earnings, normalized adjusted book value and cash flow? Has anyone figured that out with a reasonable degree of accuracy? Can the author tell us anything about that other than he thinks AIG's stock is 'too cheap'? If not, what is that notion of 'too cheap' based upon?
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    • Wed Aug 27th 10:30 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Sharing Speculative Interest in GM
      Sorry, but this stock is not a buy at any price that is significantly above ZERO. They can't stop bleeding cash. No way that could happen except if they file for Ch 11 and restructure. But that would mean wiping out common shareholders. GM is micro-study of the USA and you will have ample opprtunity to see how excessive debt burdens, excessive spending schemes will kill any company and any country - no matter how great the products that are produced. Do yourself and your clients a favour and keep away from GM. be it at $8, $6 or $3
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    • Wed Aug 27th 06:26 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Property Reinsurers: The Answer Is Blowing in the Wind
      actually, one must hope for one or two strong hurricane seasons to get all the hot and dumb capital out of the reinsurance business that is driving down premiums to below reasonable rates.
      A good hurricane or two with some staggering insurance claims to be paod would be welcome for the years ahead, imho
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    • Wed Aug 27th 04:32 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Grab Your Shorts, the Tide Has Turned
      Graham, didi it ever occur to you that CNBC/Cramer have NO interest in really getting the markets talked up beyond a certain point? Don't you know how close these folks (Cramer and his current and former TSC employees who now sit in many financial media outlets) are very closely associated with the hedge funds and (naked) short sellers who make vast profits from every market decline? So they actually only need to talk the markets up a bit to build new short positions and then let go down again. CNBC is not a pump channel anymore. it's a pump'n dump channel and you can bet that for all the silly and plain stupid stuff cramer aires out, he has plenty of reason and interest to pump and bash certain stocks.
      The U.S. stock markets are heavily manipulated, as are the commodities futures markets. SEC and CFTC are coomplete failures and rather protect the manipulators than anyone else. You only need to look at which firms most guys from SEC and CFTC end up after they leave these regulatory institutions to know whose interests SEC and CFTC are actually serving.
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    • Wed Aug 27th 04:23 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Grab Your Shorts, the Tide Has Turned
      G
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    • Wed Aug 27th 04:21 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Short Sellers: Quit Whining and Follow The Rules
      You are spot on, Tom. But don't expect anyone associated with hedge funds, naked short sellers and the cramer friends and media network to stop complaining about 'how bad shorts are being treated by the sec and the m,edia'. Even though the opposite is true. CNBC, Cramer and Co give the Ackmans Einhorns, Chanos, Tilsons etc etc. every time they want to talk and write stocks into the abyss. The SEC requires long positions in stoicks by funds to be reported - but incidentally, short positions need not. heck, if you own more than 10% of a stock you count as an insider and face severe reporting obligations and trading restrictions. But you could virtually be short 40 or 50% of a stock's float and need not even disclose it. And, no long holder, even a manipulator has ever destroyed the company he held . But naked shorts have killed many a fine company by artificially shutting the capital markets down for them. It's high time take on those crooks. just don't count on the SEC for it - it had all the time tio do so and never did anything about it. Even in crisis, all they do is to restrict naked shorting of select darling financial companies, which inciodentally, may be among the biggest naked shorters of other companies, actually. IT's a scam and it will go on as those whjo make fortunes on it have lots of influence at Capitol Hill, the SEC, the CFTC and the cramerized fincial entertainment media. It's just another obvious sign of decay and degeneration of the USA.
      View article »
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