fxtrader07

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    • Tue Aug 19th 08:11 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Financials: Bottoms Happen When Everyone's Convinced They Won't
      @E Nuff Said: when bill miller thinks that way - you should think twice.
      miller has become the prime example for how not to invest, for how not to fall into each and every value trap several times and how to not to ignore risk

      Tom: your thesis would certainly play out, IF the worst was really behind most banks and IF there were not trillions in off-balance sheet vehicles and IF the us consumer wasn't as overstretched and as indebted as he is these days. Unfortunately, all these three IFs are there and they make the outlook for most banks pretty dire.
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    • Mon Aug 18th 09:49 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Predicting the Bottom in Gold
      @malkiel and JasoC: you abviously have a short-term approach. of course, gold lags almost any other investment out there over the past 20, 30 or 40 years. that's undisputed. the point however is: what will these paper-asset returns be worth 20 or 30 years from now? There are close top 100 TRILLION in unfunded medicare, pension and medicaid liabilities in the USA. The picture for japan and Europe is hardly any better. So you can be pretty sure that either by inflating or by a sudden currency reform all these huge liabilities will be brought downto a fraction of their nominal value pf today - and at the same time the corresponding assets owned by households will be cut by the same factor. One of the very few things you cannot cut like this is gold (your own home being another one). Now, you are certaibly soooo smart to knwo in advance when this digital moment of devbt-resetting or hyperinflating will occur, no? and buy gold right the evening before.
      I have news for you: there may not be any physical gold that you can buy then. all you may get your hands on might be some paper contracts, etfs or the like. good luck with those as they could get terminated at any moment and you get paid worthless paper only.
      if you think about it, iz makes perfect sense: gold pays no interest, because it has the lowest risk of them all when it comes to payback time. it#s upon you to decide whether 4-5% for treasuries are worth the risk
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    • Mon Aug 18th 09:37 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold Bulls Predictably Sucked In
      as a long term investor concerned with the value of my portfolio and the safety of my financial well being, I couldn't care less about short-term traders who want to 'stay in the game'and therefore either have to sell in anticipation of >25% losses or not to touch gold at all. In fact, this approach is a the long term sure-fire receipt for mediocre returns on ANY investment.
      that being said, i still appreciate the author's perspective as one of the few things worth reading at SA besides tons of noise and outright dumb articles by myriads of authors
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    • Mon Aug 18th 07:27 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Everything They Tell You About Solar Is Wrong - Travis Bradford
      thin film? yeah right.- only that the raw materials required for that will not go down in price, but up - if they are available in the needed quantities at all. thin film in its current form will be dead 5 years from now. not to mention that it is one of the least efficient solar tecnologies out there.
      also the guy doesn't address at all the major problem with solar: cloudy skies and night time.

      regarding nuclear: listen mororns, like rdasher: storage is a HUGE problem - everywhere, Europe included. What most people and many analysts don't note and see is that the PUBLIC already SUBSIDISES NUCLEAR to the hilt! In germany, for inctance, exploration, closure of nuclear powers after thelifecycle ended, nuclear waste treatment and storage already costed more than 16 BILLION euros! And most storage problems and the costs for it will continue for well over THREE THOUSAND YEARS more!! Got that? NUCLEAR IS THE MOST DANGEROUS AND COSTLIEST ENERGY TECHNOLOGY EVER DEVISED. If the private companies running nucklear plants and making billions in profits would have to pay the true costs (that so far society is bearing) not one cent would ever be invested there, because it will néver ever be economical.
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    • Mon Aug 18th 04:49 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Forget $100 a Barrel - Oil Will Plummet to $30
      your new technologies will come to the rscue, but it will take many years - and by that time, just exploration and extraction and transportation of oil (including the inevitable rebuilt of thousands of miles of pipelines - can you spell steel-prices?) will cost you much much more than $30/bl.
      you $30 price tag is an eye catcher - but it also shows that you don't have a clue what you are talking about.
      At that price, btw, the oil majors will buy and hoard oil themselves rather than extracting and selling it
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    • Thu Aug 14th 07:04 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Negative Trend for Oil Exploration and Production Stocks
      analysts were slow to revise upward when oil went up and were slow to revise down when oil and gas tanked. however, most oil and gas stocks never reached bublle valuations of any kind. in fact i would very much challenge your notion of an 'energy bubble'. what we have seen is the first(!) echo of a dollar and credit bubble starting to unwind, reflected in a rise of formerly depressed commodities (overvalued dollars bought too much of a barrel of oil). Now we see a healthy correction. Most e&p companies can live with oil at 80-100. heck, cop and apc and others will make a ton of money from $90 oil.
      valuations are reasonable to dirt-cheap in this sector as long as you do not ecpect oil to drop below 70 for any sustained period of time. Howvere, if that were to occur, I suspect the entire stockmarket would crater by 50%+ as that would signal a global depression unheard of since the 1930s
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    • Thu Aug 14th 06:54 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Natural Gas: Clean Fuel with a Dirty Little Secret
      your own numbers totally contradict your conclusion and your eye-catching starting sentence: domestic supply @ 57bcf/day versus expected demand of 65bcf/day. And you call that 'massive oversupply'??
      Give me a break! Of course, if you count global LNG you can make a cae of oversupply for each and every country in the world. The point is: why has domestic production replaced so much of LNG imports? Quite simple, costs! the crashing dollar has made LNG (with its additional transportation and storage costs) pretty expensive in comparison to domestic NGas.
      Now, if you factor in that oil has gone up dramatically, even including the latest sharp drop, that coal has gotten up sharply, that additional fees for emission rights will soon further increase the costs of coal-based electricity then you look at a healthy and solid increase in longterm, sustainable NG demand. Nothing spectacular, no huge yoy jumps, but solid demand growth. LNG will not bring down prices anytime soon. us producers could easily suspend some production if need be and europe and asia demand a growing share of LNG for themeslves.
      stocks of US producers like xto, chk are pretty much undervalued after the recent sell-off in the light of the bigger, longterm picture
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    • Thu Aug 14th 06:10 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      MBIA's Momentous 2Q: Need More Evidence That the Turn Has Arrived?
      Hi Tom, thanks for another great article. Agree with your bullish view on MBIA
      You have not touched one concern that I think is noteworthy, however: the rising risk from defaults by municipalities - MBIA's core business. Given the extreme stress for the consumer going forward, the taxation fallouts from the real estate crash and all the current and future financing needs, I see a tsunami hitting the states and municipalities over the coming 5-10 years. any thought on that?
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    • Thu Aug 14th 04:38 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Six Reasons To Buy China Soon
      www.investorsinsight.c...

      people tend to extrapolate trends and usually do not expect major interruptions or deviations. The business cy<cle is neiter dead nor can it be cheated over longer periods of time. China is going to get a heavy recessionary fallout from the recession that arrives in the usa and europe. the stock market there is signalling it all year.
      in that downturn it will be seen how robust and of what quality china#s growth really is/was. and regarding the forex reserves: they may soon find themselves in a position where they will have to spent billions and billions to rescue once again their own banking system. the us-subprime sector looks like prime when compared to china#s lending standards. watch out below.
      therw ill be a time to buy china with both hands. it hasn't arrived yet. similar with india - though their economy has different problems than the chinese and might overall weather the coming months better
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    • Thu Aug 14th 04:25 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      0 for 4: Oil Analysts Surprised by Everything
      well, who is the gretaer fool? The fool (most analysts, at least when it comes to very short-term predictions) or those who follow the fool (all the short term traders).
      All these weekly, or even monthly numbers and deviations don't mean sh!t in the larger scheme of things. Why anyone follows those numbers other than for the purpose of figuring out possible emerging or ending trends, is beyond me.
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    • Thu Aug 14th 04:10 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Case for Retreating From Oil Investments
      first, thanks to the author for an article that looks from a variety of angles at the oil picture. second, I have ahard time understanding your argument regarding new oil production coming online. Your graph shows that record amounts of new oil procution have come online over the PAST 5 YEARS(!) and that it#s all downhill from now on. This, btw, is a major factor in oil' future's dramatic rise across all expiration periods.
      Second, I agree that I would not want to be long oil futures or options at this point. In fact, I would never want to be long commodity futures. I prefer the low cost and/or fast growing producers of the stuff. And those have been priced all the time for oil 80-100 at a maximum. With the recent sell-off in enrgy stocks, they are priced for oil at $70-80 already. Stocks like cop and apc and others will make a ton of money even if oil drops another 20-25$. If you calculate the cost of inefficient but important (from a volume point of view) marginal producers they need about $40/bl to be profitable. add in another 40-45$ that you need these days per barrel for replacing reserves. that gives about 85$ /vbl which I regard as sort of a longer term floor for oil prices (short term spikes below could happen, of course).
      imho many oil-related stocks (and even more Natgas) are still severely underpriced. with their current free cash flow many could buy back their entire stock float over the coming 10-15 years if they just continued at their current buyback rates!
      final word: oil is priced in dollars. the recent dollar rally notwithstanding, a new administration together with the fed will inflate like mad if a global economic depression were to arrive. And all other countries would follow suit. In that sort of environment, oil would be a harder currency than gold and the reserves held by oil companies would become more valuablöe by the day.
      all in all, there are short term downside risks for oil stocks, true. but longer term, they will continue to be a heck of a great investment.
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    • Thu Aug 14th 03:43 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Time to Short the Utilities
      stocks and sectors offering a high and highly rfeliable dividend yield have come under severe pressure over the past 12 months.
      this has created exceütional opportunities going forward as dividends will once again be the major contributir to total stock market returns over the rcoming 4-5 years. So shorting utilities might not be so smart a move. That being said, there are far more compelling dividend plays out there - e.g. in the MLP sector, certein reits and selected financial stocks like acas
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    • Wed Aug 13th 09:31 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Today’s Bull Market Is Tomorrow’s Bear Trap
      those looking to hide in Asia will get a nasty surprise.

      @gabe borenstein: 'Now that the U.S had faced and is addressing all of the problems ,we are at the begining of the unprecedented stock market rally .' Helloo?? Infrastructure in the usa is in a misearable shape, so is energy and energy policy, healthcare. government budget will face a trillion $ deficit during the next presidency - no matter who wins. problems are being adressed?? They have not even started to get adressed. Waht is done now are emergency rescues. the long term lingering problems have not even be spelled out by any of the presidential candidates. go figure
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    • Wed Aug 13th 04:53 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      LDK Solar Nearly Doubles Estimates
      @Alpha 26: You seem to be very long opinion and bias and naked short facts. Go figure.
      View article »
    • Mon Aug 11th 08:52 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      As Oil Slides, Will Contrarians Turn to Refiners?
      all that talk about 'demand destruction' hm, what about #supply destruction' in gasoline and distilled products when a lot of non-sour refiners are actually losing big bucks now? How long can Tesoro and others produce while losing money on their products?
      On the other hand, people will get used to $4/gallon gas pretty soon The very structure of the us economy and its transportation system allows only for so much 'demand destruction'. While the idiots like rumsfeld and cheney loved to brag about 'old europe' they never realized that europe has actually learnt a great deal from the oil crises of the 70s. Many countries there have a public transportation system the usa could only dream about to get. because opver there $9-$10/gallon is the rule, not the exception. And THAT is a level for demand destruction. not $4 or $5
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