fxtrader07

Total Rating:
0 / 0

617 Comments

    • Wed Aug 6th 05:33 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      China Medical: Why the Rapid Growth?
      you seem to be absolutely obsessed with finding something negative everywhere you look.
      Must feel like a truly gratifying life.
      but then again, you have chosen so.
      View article »
    • Tue Aug 5th 09:24 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      GM May Hit $200 Before Oil Does
      'on July 17th that a historic reversal was at hand in Oil has Peaked, Banks have Bottomed, '
      'I believe there is a secular bull trend in commodities and indeed emerging markets'
      'Although there will be volatile ' Bull Trap' rallies, the uptrend has been decisively broken and I'd avoid long exposure '

      'Although we are in a structural bear market that will last well into the next decade... it's now a good bet that on a 12m view, US equities will be materially higher from here.'

      Hm, understand your reasoning , but the problem with that kind of analysis is that you will be constantly switching between all sorts of secular and non-secular trends. Also, while i can't deny the existence and growing influence of sector rotation by hedge funds and other large institutional investors, I will certainly not adopt to their approach and trade in and out of my positions whenever THEY feel like changing moods.
      And finally, that 'money market funds' argument is a bit of a stretch. a lot if not most of the assets held in these 'money market funds' are higly illiquid paper that cannot be sold - and that finances to a alarge extent the big banks and keeps their house of cards intact - sort of. So you might in fact not see large outflows from there anytime soon
      View article »
    • Tue Aug 5th 06:14 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Safe Haven Investments Amid a Global Crisis
      fwiw, i would buy physical palladium and platinum and/or the futures - but avoid dogs like pal. swc might have decent chance since their hedges are expiring this year (and some of them have in the past quiarters already). Looks like they timed this as perfect as everything else. going fully hedged through the bull market and coming off naked when the metals crash. well done.
      but that being said, the pgm bull has further tio run - at least in this point i agree with mark.
      View article »
    • Mon Aug 4th 10:38 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Safe Haven Investments Amid a Global Crisis
      just two major issues that the author conveniently ignores:
      first, just by looking at the share prices of swc and pal anyone can figure out that they do not exactly look like, uhm, 'safe heaven investments'.
      second, pal and to e little lesser extent swc have so far managed to abolutely screw up quarter after quarter after quarter. The auhtor should seruiously ask himself whether these two companies will ever be able to profit from a palladium bull that he envisages. chances are, palladium might indeed catch up with platinmum - while two companies will still make no money.
      so far, their mgmts suck and the fundamentals suck. it's yet to be seen what will happen when fundamentals go better. i for my part don't hold my breath to find out
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 1st 08:50 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Chesapeake Energy Pre-Call Notes: Another Quarter, Another Beat
      @Zoedog: daytrading in ANY stock or market is for losers and suckers. Imho 99% of the people daytrade because they cannot control their desire to 'do something' when in fact doing nothing would produce the best results - which is the case for about 80% of the time.
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 1st 08:25 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is David Einhorn Smarter Than I Am?
      btw, this is obviously your first article at SA - and you start with a dumb 'i love david einhorn' mantra.
      I hope it's your last article here as well - man, why does SA allow such crap??
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 1st 06:27 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is David Einhorn Smarter Than I Am?
      This is a brainless and content-free pumping -cum-cheerleading article for a hedgefund-manager that has doubtful moral standards and doubtful business ethics, to say the least.

      Btw, nothing to find about Einhorn? LOL! Well if you actually cared to look, you would find plenty - and a lot of quite negative stuff, btw. But I guess, you were 'smart' enough to ignore it all.
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 1st 04:06 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why Merrill's CDO Sale Doesn't Mean Big Writeoffs Elsewhere
      Tom, you are right of course - that mer esentially sold cdo-stuff for 5ct on the dollar says nothing about the CDOs held by others. It#s in fact not very hard to assume that they can't hold worse stuff but rather might hold better. BUT: what does it tell you about the true state of affairs at Merill? when they sell fpr 5 cents on the buck just to get some 6.7 bn in cash upfront (even if they might have to pay 5bn of that back over time). When they have to dilute their stock at a multiyear low by 38% and to basically issue new shares to Singapore at $7/share? What was all that bs said by Thain worth when he didn't have the balls to issue more new stock earlier while merill was trading much higher?
      What is does tell me at least (unlike you me being no banking expert ) is that mer sees very tough times ahead which they feel the need to get prepared for. Even with better cdo-stuff, these times may be as bad for anyone else.
      this is NO cyclical downturn for banks - this THE biggest financial services bubble ever deflating.
      There is more bad stuff to come - and I am pretty certain that over the next 6-12 months we will see one or more major banks (commerical or Investment) failing to raise fresh equity - leading to a true panic bottom for financial stocks.
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 1st 03:38 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Lundin: The Biggest Family in Natural Resources
      @ValueInvestor: LMC took a substantial goodwill-writedown on the ezm acquisition which would signal that they rather overpaid for it. and zinc prices have gone sharply down ever since. Coupled with the surging euro that was as bad as it could possibly get for eurozinc/lundin. so i would very much question your interpretation.
      View article »
    • Thu Jul 31st 11:35 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Lundin: The Biggest Family in Natural Resources
      Hi graham,

      interestingly, you don't say a single sentence about Lundin Mining (LMC). What do you think of it? a newbie investor who never heard of the Lundins before might come to the straight conclusion that investing in LMC was similar to the stellar deals of the past that you named. But then again, LMC is down 60% from its IPO price. What gives?
      View article »
    • Thu Jul 31st 08:41 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Manitowoc Offers Investors Growth at a Discount
      interesting article though i wonder why with all these positives the author holds no shares of the company - but instead of DE?
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 30th 06:11 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Has Merrill Survived the Current Crisis? Analysts Weigh In
      'This is the first large-scale CDO transaction that is not a distressed sale. ...Including the financing, Merrill took assets with a carrying value of $0.36 and wrote them down to $0.22, and transferred the risk of declines down to $0.17 to a 3rd party.'

      WTF?? THAT is not a distressed sale??? Gimme a break!
      Mer essentially throws away ANY upside after writing down 78% of the assets. In turn, they get some very expensive cash and reduce their remaining exposure by a meager 5% - from 22% to 17% of face value.
      In essence, Merill sold the CDOs for 5 cents on the dollar - not 22!!

      Imho this allows for but two plausible interpretations:

      A) MER is So absolutely desperate in need of cash that it virtually buys 1.7bn in cash by the way of essentially throwing away assets worth at least 4-5 times as much, possibly more. Well. that should tell anyobody in what shape the company is
      OR
      B) MER actually knows already pretty well that these CDOs are exactly worth ZERO. so instead of losing the entire amount of 6.7 bn, they just lose 5 bn. If that were the case, it spells absoluite DESASTER for a couple of other wallstreet firms and commercial banks!

      Given that MER is an established wallstreet house and that they tend to do very stupid risk taking at times, but would not throw away that much of money for a paltry 1.7bn cash, i think that B) is most likely the correct interpretation. If so, the recent July 'bottom' in banking stocks will prove a stemporary as all the others before.
      Expect other banks and brokers to follow merill and trying to sell CDO assets for net 5 or 6 cents on the dollar before they get nothing at all from them.


      View article »
    • Wed Jul 30th 05:08 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What Can Go Right for the Financials? Quite a Bit, Actually
      Tom, appreciate all your articles here, but i have to disaggree with you here.
      The point is that the recession is just beginning. the 100bn checks that were sent out just postponed the inevitable. JPM's Dimmon stated that a recession will be much more painful for the banks than the mortgage/subprime related stuff so far.
      And those pains would come on top of a depleted capital base, beaten down stocks (diminishing the capability of more equity offerings) and an already strecthced consumer. Talk about consumer loans and commercial loans to get into trouble. now, how will you value and estimate that going forward?
      Bottom line: if the u.s. were otherwise sound and at the brink of another economic expansion, i would agree with you. But they aren't. bank lending got hevaily restrictive and way down precisely when it was needed to keep the economy growing. the u.s. consumer is maxxed out. who shall fill the gap? imho you are pretty much underestimating the macroeconomic picture., much as you did in 2007 and you are therefore way too early calling The bottom for banks, even though they might rally for a couple of months.
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 30th 04:56 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Another American Money Pit: Infrastructure
      for all the bragging about 'old europe' the crooks running the administration should have looked at how far ahead and much more up-to-date most European countries are in terms of infratsructure (despite all their financing problems with pension and social security, medicare etc).
      It#s the classic trap the ancien Romans fell into. In order to maintain their world empire they wasted all the money on troops and armament and on sending their legions everywhere. while their heartland declined economically. The u.s is facing the same. wasting trilions on wars and army and weapons, consumers borrrwoing to the hilt - a pure consumption economy that all of a sudden discovers that all the 'services economy' talk was just plain stupid - now that the financial services bubble has collapsed
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 30th 04:42 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The SEC's Campaign Against Naked Shorting: Misguided or Right On?
      Dear Mr Tilson,

      you don't know anyone naked shorting stocks? hm, sure.
      Those who did naked short would as likely tell you about it as you would tell us here, eh? Whom are you kidding?

      And are you aware of the statement made by the SEC chairman Cox on March 4, 2008 where he described naked shorting as ' a serious problem especially for smaller companies'? He stated:

      'Illegal naked short sellers don’t bother with that part. They sell shares of stock that they haven’t borrowed, and that they have no intention of borrowing. In some cases, they sell shares that don’t even exist.
      Illegal naked short selling is an especially serious threat to smaller public companies, whose relatively thin market capitalizations can be more easily manipulated. And in the same way, it threatens the savings and investments of many retail investors in these smaller companies.
      There are many legitimate reasons that a trade might fail to settle, but the extreme abuses that are reflected in securities being chronically listed on Reg SHO’s Threshold Security List for months and years at a time is ample evidence that there is also fraud in the market that needs to be arrested.
      Periodically there are reports that following a legitimate purchase of 100% of the outstanding shares of a microcap company, millions of phantom shares continue to be traded by naked short sellers.'
      source: investorprotectioncoal...

      View article »
Loading...
Symbols:
Authors:
Quick Links:
Contribute an Article Become a Seeking Alpha Contributor

Transcripts

More Transcripts»