fxtrader07

Countdown of Manipulated Gold Price Running Out

calm down. the increased investor demand (mostly retail) is just sufficient to compensate for the sharp drop in indutrial demand (i.e. jewellery production). gold, in fact, has held up pretty well - just look at silver which has virtually crashed. Deflation is here big time and though reflating efforts by central banks and govts. will perhaps avoid a depression they will not lead to any meaningful inlfation for the coming 2-3 years. Thereafter, they may. gold mining stocks have fallen as if gold were to tank to $400/500. I am not sure it will, but if anything here, i would by quality gold miners, not bullion anymore.

36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull

sentiment suggests a bottom - but the dead interbank lending market, dead credit markets, dead CP markets and the crashing carry-trade (Yen is going ballistic, especially against the Euro) suggest more pain ahead. Form a time perspective, we probably are pretty close to a bottom. But tell that to the Russians who saw their market plunge more than 20%(!!) just yesterday alone - on top of a 50%+ decline earlier. so a bottom will form between now and mid-november - but it may be right here or it may be 20 or 30 or even 40% lower. who knows for sure? on the other hand, selling has now rotated towards tech after energy and materials in summer.the energy complex is the safest imho now - rich dividends and backed by real, needed assets. technology has a further 40-50% downside risk as those items are usually discretionary stuff that you can at least postpone. and people loosing their jobs, banks starved off cash and corporations with no access to debt financing will postpone software and hardware upgrades as long as possible.
i do hope the europeans get their acts together and start lowering rates pretty soon and create a pan-european rescue fund. or else the eurozone's economy will head over the cliff and maybe taking the euro currency with it. which would be no event to cheer because it would inflict another huge round of damages across the world

Go For The Gold - Cramer's Mad Money (9/22/08)

oh no! is that the signal for a significant top in gold already? when cramer advises to buy, it is usually high time to get out.
but foirtunately, i have the guy on 'ignore'. Don't let your investment decisions and your financial health be influenced by an entertainer-cum-hedgef...

Leveraging Up on Precious Metals Ahead of Fed Meeting

@User 52095: Ted Butler talks about the ishares-silver (SLV). Not a single word about Silver Wheaton (SLW)

No Renewed Bull Phase for Metals Miners Just Yet

Dear Bill, the Gold and silver markets are absolutely manipulated. I know you dismiss it and don'
t wat to hear and talk about it - but they are, plain to see for evberyone who cares to really look at them. Surprisingly, for all your talk about the manipulative practices of the HB&B you go out of your way to dismiss the same manipulation in the much smaller, much tighter controled by the HB&B and hence much easier to manipulate precious metals markets. gop figure, something doesn't add up here.
@Georealist: I disagree with a couple of Mark's points but, he does some really thorough research and some of his observations are spot on. You, on the other hand, argue with bias and opinion, but very light on facts. The comes futures markets have almost ZERO relationship with real physical demand for gold, silver and palladium. Any major bullion bank can hammer and lift prices there at will - even more so if they compine theiur efforts, what they very often do.
or are you to tell me that all of a sudden, one August afternoon real demand for gold and silver fell so sharply to warrant a 30% haircut in prices? LOL!
btw, real silver dealers report very long delays in delivery, the us mint has suspended to issue silver coins(!!) the perth mint has hude tzime lags delivering silver to clients that supposedly had all been stored already - go figure.

Scotia Capital: Gold Uptrend Will Continue into 2009

these 10 and 12.5 year average price targets are pretty confusing and frankly look pretty weird. if they believed in them, i cannot understand how they raised the targets for silver and gold miners. 12 year average silver price target at $12?? wtf? do they expect silver to fall back to that level for the next years or what?
this stuff from scotia capital is less than useless.

Dollar and Oil Are Manipulated by ECB and Fed

sorry, but i don't quite get your point. if anyone is manipulating the price of oil, it's the big banks like goldman, large hedgefunds and Iran/saudi arabia. the Central banks have nothing to gain from that and contrary to what some believe they are not omnipotent to influence each and everything at will.

Five Ways To Ride Gold to $1500

hm u.s. monetary policy remains the wild card here, imho. contrary to popular belief and often published assumption, the fed seems not to have enginerred significant monetary expansion actually, over the past 5-7 years! I was stunned when discovering it in an article but the numbers are there and unless they are farged they at least warrant some caution. www.whiskeyandgunpowde...

that said, the growth in forex reserves seems a good measure though one probably must look a bit deeper into it to exclude artficially bloated numbers through derivatives positions

Is it Finally Time to Sell Gold and Related Mining Stocks?

Hey Alan, you may be right, but the question is, is it really worth the risk to sell at $930 in the hope of getting in at $700 again ? Two major risks are here: one, that $700 will never be seen - quite likely, imho. I haven't seen many people having the guts to reenter a market at a higher price than they exited at - missing out on the subsequent run almost in 98/100 cases. Will you buy into gold again when your drop to $700 doesn't play out and instead it hits 1.050$?
second: will you really get in at 700$ - when gold hits $700 , it might look like a terrible drop making many people rethink that earlier plan of re-entering)
regarding the miners, they have barely followed gold's rise. that is only in part due to escalating costs. It is also due to investors and speculators doubting the sustainability of gold's rise. I mean, everybody knows the chart from the 1980s, right, and nobody wants to buy a similiar top? If one carefully lokks at it, even if gold were to stay at $700-$950 for the next 2-3 years many gold miners will make a ton of money and you will see the reverse of the past 2 years: gold miners rising way faster than gold or rising in the face of a stagnating gold price.
So it may pay off, to hold back opn mining stocks for the time being but selling gold or GLD here will in all likelihood be a very costly mistake, imho.

Is it Finally Time to Sell Gold and Related Mining Stocks?

only clueless morons think that an inevitable slowdown in rate-cuts will mean less debasing of the dollar. hundreds of billions of capital injections, implied guarantees for gses, "tax rebates", unfunded future healthcare and pension obligations, bank-bailouts and junk mortgage-securities purchases will ensure that the dollar's purchasing power will go down the toilet going forward even faster than during the past years. It's more than ever before "inflate-or-die" for the govt and the fed (until the whole house of cards comes crashing down anyway, despite asnd because of all inflationary efforts). The problem with gold as the ultimate hedge is that it is sort of a digital investment. the moment the masses really get the fact that the fed and the govt have delibereately inflated their way out of current problems and will always do so (because no other choices exist anymore other than outright seizure of all assets from amrican and foreign citizen) the very moment they will all rush towards gold and silver. However, there is so little gold and silver available that at that point you won't be able to buy it in any meaningful quantities at any reasonable price. Until then, however, the price of gold will probably languish - going steeply up for a few years only to struggle for the next ones. And in all ikelihood, until that final day of reckoning occures, gold will underperform most financial assets.
So if you think you are the smartest of them all, you might hold stocks and bonds and switch into gold right on the eve of judgement day.
I for my part, certainly would not take the chance...
Keep a part of your wealth (at least 10%, better 20-30%) in physical gold and silver and put the rest into financial assets like high quality stocks and bonds (avoid us treasuries and most other govt bonds however!). and do not measure the appropriateness of your gold holdings by their performance versus stocks or bonds. keep in mind that they are an insurance - to be kept for the day that will come with ultra high probability but which will be impossible to time