fxtrader07

First Solar, SunPower: Threatened by Applied Materials Advances?

analysts who guesstimate that FSLRs margins will stay high or even expand and do so for 3 or more years out waste their time and mislead people. Not intentionally so, granted, but still they do. This industry is changing so fast and rapidly that these predictions sre simply useless. Other competitotrs, other technologies, changing fundamentals of existing competing technologies (polysilicon, for instance), changing government subsidies etc. etc. all can and will have huge impacts.
Given that a stock like FSLR is priced for perfection and then some for the next 5-6 years out, those targets of 450$ or higher are nonsense and garbage. They are as good a guess as seeing a $80 target.
people who buy stocks like fslr at 250 or 300$/share based on such nonsense do nothing but gamble - they do certainly not invest, no matter what they pretend.

Update on LDK Solar, Applied Materials Thin Film Deal

sorry - lots of typos in my previous comment as i was typing in a hurry...

well, things would be dramatically different if FSLR were a chinese company, too. for sure they never had traded above 100, let alone 300$/share.
Or if ldk were an American company. then it might have seen $100/share long ago. The bias among analysts and money managers is simply breathtaking here. I mean, never mind that enron or worldcom were very u.s. american companies....

Update on LDK Solar, Applied Materials Thin Film Deal

well, things would be drmatically different if FSLR were a chinese company, too. for dure they never had trades above 100, lest 300$/share.
Or if ldk were an american. then it might have seen $100/share long ago. The bias among analysts and money managers is simply breathtaking there. I mean, never mind that enron or worldcom weren't very u.s. american companies....

The State of the Thin-Film Photovoltaic Industry

fslr looks extremely like jnpr and csco back in 200-2001. silicon and cigs will kill their margins at wharp speed over the coming 2-3 years and then watch out below. fslr is a strong sell at 260$+ as all those nice earnings growth projections are soon headed for the dust bin. around may when their recent quarter gets reported we will in all likelihood see the all-time high of this overhyped stock - if we haven't seen it already

Contradictions in the Solar Market

great article, though i have to believe your numbers as i have no way (and not time) to check them.
based on your analysis, there aren't too many bargains in the solar stocks universe, despite the sharp drop of the past weeks.
polysilicon suppliers with cost advantages, low p/e panel manufacturers. everything thin film, especially FSLR with its obscenely high p/E ought to witness their stock prices collapse over the next 2 years ?!