fxtrader07

Time to Buy Airline Stocks?

@BioInvestor: Buffet called his airlines investment one of his biggest mistakes later on. he stated very pronounced that he got out with a profit only because of pure luck and he has been very negative on airlines as a business and as an investment ever since.

Time to Buy Airline Stocks?

that's cigarbutt-investing as Buffet and Munger would call it.
you buy inferior companies in hope of a bounce. in fact, you hope that oil comes down before all the airlines have to file for ch11. that may happen or may not - who knows?
in any case, you wait for a bounce only, but this may come never, or it may come from a 50% lower price.
these companies are bleeding cash and lose tons of money. they are not great businesses. they may be fine for traders. but they are easy to identify no-nos for investors

Is Oil a Bubble? Part One

@red baron: are you even aware of the fact that most emerging market economies, esp china dn india are subsidising oil and gasoline to a very large extent these days to their citizens? China consumes much more oil in relation to its economic output than the u.s. (not to speak of much more energy-effcient economies in europe). as long as people get cheap oil and gasoline there they have zero incentive to save. now, the problem comes in exactly here: everybody assumes china has huge $ reserves to buy up the entire world with. but how long will they last to support domestic prices while oil prices keep escalating? how much loneer can less capitalized emerging economies sustain their subsidies? and the moment they can't anymore, economic activity will slow down very dramatically! which, in turn, will btw also affect agricultural output.
I think, that oil will go down substantially, it's long-term uptrend notwithstanding while grains and agricultural commoditoies will stay high and climb higher. there is speculative money in them, too, but demand growth there is much more real than in oil and while you can stop driving for a month - you cannot stop eating

Is Oil a Bubble? Part One

@papita: REAL demand for oil hasn't changed all that much, but "paper"demand for oil-futures has been skyrocketing over the past years. contrary what the most media-guys tell (mostly due to lack of knowledge and lack of skills and willingness to thoroughly research a story before publishing crap) it is not an issue of real supply real demand-disruptions or threats thereof. nothing the like has developed since decmber to justify a 40% spike in prices.
i suggest you read this sa-article referring to a recent eye-opening testimony about impact of speculators and pensionfunds(!) on oil prices before the us senate:

seekingalpha.com/artic...