fxtrader07

Quitting the Hedge Fund Game - Mark Sellers

Oh felix, you couldn't be more wrong!! what a poor artcile that reads like someone who jubilates about another one's pain. perhaps you simply can't stand seller's long time success, can you?

the rule#1 means not to lose money - in the sense of a permanent impairment of capital. it does not at all mean that you only buy things that go up in value immediately!

so sellers closing the fund simply means he does not want redemptions to force him to realize losses on sound investments. that's the big advantage of berkshire: it 's investments can go down - and big, but people can't take their money (insurance premiums) out.

and, btw., one of Seller's biggest positions is MCF. and boy, does this company sell very cheap compared to what it is actually worth!

such artciles are below your level, felix - or may be, some other by you simply were positive exceptions? you decide.

American Express Calls Investment Banks' Bluff

remember what WFC said, did boost their earnings? a huge increase in their credit card business. Give me a break! it seems they generated lots of fees and profits there which will come home to roost over the coming quarters and years.
and to all the V and MA-lovers who immediately react if their darlings are mentioned with axp: the author didn't state that V or MA were in trouble. he simply wanted to illustrate the point that axp has a higher net-worth and higher turnover-clientele than the two. and that therefore, a deterioration here is extremelx significant for the financial sector. so sit back and relax. nobody slapped your two darlings.
funny. really.

Why American Express Should Be Ignored

@jake: they are different than axp. still, expectations of exponential growth more often than not do not materialize. europe is close to a recession now and the u.s. is already in one - except for the number massaging done by the govt. anyone who believes the emerging markets will be immune from that is just dreaming. the high oil price masks the decline in many commodities and by now oil is pure speculation. a year from now it will be back to 80$/bl, asia and brazil will have tanked big and people will wonder how all that 'growth' could disappear so quickly. well, it hasn't . it has never been there in the first place - only in the expectations of people who extrapolate past trends indefinitely into the future

Why American Express Should Be Ignored

counterintuitive as it may seem. axp probably is the better deal compared to MA andV here. why? simply because the expectations diverge so massively. on one side, axp, where people fear for something pretty short of armageddon. on the other, v and ma where people - absurdly- think that they were immune from global economic slowdowns and are willing to pay up big time for a perceived growth that may or may not materialize. the former, axp is exposed to positive suprises from here - while the opposite holds true for v and ma.
as for me, i to ignore all three of them at this time

Dow: An Undervalued 5-Star Market

sorry, but i don't understand the author's obsession with moriningstar ratings. their ain't no shortcuts to avoid your own due diligence. these ratings might be some starting point but nothing more.

Big Ben's Credit Card Moves: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

the number of people bragging about (a) their success trading V or (b) bragging about calls on V being the ultimate road to riches is stunning.
the voice of reason (bearfund) gets silly rebuttals by people who think that a 10% annual return is something ridiculously low RoI. Feels like dot-com fools are allover the Visa-place. yeah, it might go to 200$/share. so what? you can make this exercise 5 times and be right 4 times. the fifth kills you, especially with this repeated call-buying humbug. face it, you need someone (fool or not) who buys V-stocks from you at ahigher price to make any money. Compare that to solid dividend paying business. that was bearfund#s point - but the momentum morons who don't know a thing about fundamentals and investing of course didn't get it.
at one point your calls will expire worthless and kill all your nice profits. only hope you didn't pay them with your V-card

Insider Trends in the Financial Sector

@karchad: you obviously do not see beyond your nose. you just guess and gamble. You have seen this happen before? give me a break! A crisis about which everybody who is even remotely involved states that it is unprecedented. But you "know" and have seen it. what a crap.
And by the way: going by your logic you bought the nasdaq at about 2.000 back in 2001. great long-term investment. amzn slightly up, yhoo way down, nasdaq pretty much unchanged. not bad for 7 years time while the dollar's purchasing power has dropped by at least 25% due to inflation. potato, anyone?

Insider Trends in the Financial Sector

tracking insiders and following them is great -but: regarding the "big" macroeconomic picture most insiders have no bigger insights than any other investor. They can very well assess whether their business (stock) is cheap REALTIVE to the past. They have ZERO advantage when it comes to evaluate the overall prospects - i.e. macroeconomic catastrophies that could hit, external shocks or the like.
The same holds true for general market downturns. If, for instance, the stock market experiences a prolonged overall P/E contraction (and this is an ongoing trend that WILL VERY LIKELY CONTINUE FOR SOME MORE YEARS!) then the insiders are getting caught buying too high as well.
And regarding banks: with all due respect, most high-lebvel managers there have made so many millions in absolutely insane and unjustified compensations over the past years that you can count on two things: first, most of them have lost any touch to the value of money, second even if they lost out on their insider buys, it would not make a huge difference to them anyway.
the only thing really worth watching ifs Buffet in this regard, but even he can be wrong. and, very importantly, he probably has far less ambitous expectations of returns on these investments than most other people have. I am pretty much certain that he is not targetting 15%+ annual returns with these purchases. rather, he might see an opportunity to put more of his vast cash to work at somewhat reasonable prices. but his time horizon is definetely longer than that of most retail investors
to me, the banks are too risky here, simply for the reason that I have no way of knowing what is hidden in their balance sheets until after it implodes. Therefore, I have little chances to manage my risk. Ther are other sectors and other stocks that offer value as well. I need not to gamble in banks