fxtrader07

BofA, Lehman, AIG: The New Financial Realities

@guilamo: it could be a self-killing, i.e. harakiri. time will tell.

BofA, Lehman, AIG: The New Financial Realities

@paul&Shark: wtf? who cares how much you made or lost?
btw: people who need to brag about their trading success usually lose their money pretty fast. so better watch out

Bank of America / Merrill: Shotgun Marriage

Mish, naked shorts may have had no hand in LEH, but before you dismiss the 'naked shorts' factor that easily you ought to look into it and research it. You blunt rejection reads more like a biased opinion than a conclusion arrived at after due consideration.
you shouldn't get ahead of yourselves. you are just a human being, no genius and you can and you actually do make incoirrect assumptions and statements - like all of us do from time to time.
time to get a bit humble, perhaps, no?

Why Merrill's CDO Sale Doesn't Mean Big Writeoffs Elsewhere

Tom, you are right of course - that mer esentially sold cdo-stuff for 5ct on the dollar says nothing about the CDOs held by others. It#s in fact not very hard to assume that they can't hold worse stuff but rather might hold better. BUT: what does it tell you about the true state of affairs at Merill? when they sell fpr 5 cents on the buck just to get some 6.7 bn in cash upfront (even if they might have to pay 5bn of that back over time). When they have to dilute their stock at a multiyear low by 38% and to basically issue new shares to Singapore at $7/share? What was all that bs said by Thain worth when he didn't have the balls to issue more new stock earlier while merill was trading much higher?
What is does tell me at least (unlike you me being no banking expert ) is that mer sees very tough times ahead which they feel the need to get prepared for. Even with better cdo-stuff, these times may be as bad for anyone else.
this is NO cyclical downturn for banks - this THE biggest financial services bubble ever deflating.
There is more bad stuff to come - and I am pretty certain that over the next 6-12 months we will see one or more major banks (commerical or Investment) failing to raise fresh equity - leading to a true panic bottom for financial stocks.

American Express Calls Investment Banks' Bluff

remember what WFC said, did boost their earnings? a huge increase in their credit card business. Give me a break! it seems they generated lots of fees and profits there which will come home to roost over the coming quarters and years.
and to all the V and MA-lovers who immediately react if their darlings are mentioned with axp: the author didn't state that V or MA were in trouble. he simply wanted to illustrate the point that axp has a higher net-worth and higher turnover-clientele than the two. and that therefore, a deterioration here is extremelx significant for the financial sector. so sit back and relax. nobody slapped your two darlings.
funny. really.

Short Sales: SEC Turns Back the Clock to 1931

The SEC ought to be abolished for this preferential treatment of wallstreet. They are banning naked short sales ON wallstreet's banks and brokers - but they are allowing any naked short BY them on any stock they desire to continue. Go figure.

Selective Enforcement: (Re)Introducing Regulation SHO

Great article. the most obvious and blatant display ever of whose interests the SEC is really protecting. The SEC ought to be abolished. the exemption reasons given in reg SHO for naked shorting may apply for a day or two. But HOW can they justify that stocks stay for months and years on Reg SHO lists? for market making purpose? sure.
it's a giant crime and a shame. The usa is more of a developing country and a banana republic type of market when it comes to create a level playing field in the stock markets.

SEC Shorting Restrictions: Are Some Banks Being Set Up?

As I pointed out elsewhere after that weird SEC-announcement: naked shorts ON Goldman get banned - but naked shorts BY Goldman do not.
This is by far the most stunning display of financial apartheid ever displayed by the sec. they should abolish that institution alltogether as it is only catering to wallstreet's needs anyway.

Dow: An Undervalued 5-Star Market

sorry, but i don't understand the author's obsession with moriningstar ratings. their ain't no shortcuts to avoid your own due diligence. these ratings might be some starting point but nothing more.

Bank of America: Smarter Than We Think?

Hi Michael - these comparisons to 1990, 1995 or 2000 are completely useless. the bull market in securitization and ever higher leveraging has ended. and banks profits have been driven by it all those years.
the current credit crisis in unprcedented. every bank exec agrees at least on that. you have to go back to the 1980s and further down to the 1930s for real comparisons.
using the datapoints you suggested is a bit like referring to 1998, 1999 and 200 to determine a bottom for dot-coms in 2001/2002

a huge part of the business model of the banks is effectively broken. so what do you think "normalized" (i.e. non-bubble) earnings will look like? and when can they be achieved? banks struggle to get cash and deleverage - unless they are done with it they have no resources to write new business. and if there is little new business, a zero fed funds rate doesn't make a dent in their earnings

Big Ben's Credit Card Moves: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

the number of people bragging about (a) their success trading V or (b) bragging about calls on V being the ultimate road to riches is stunning.
the voice of reason (bearfund) gets silly rebuttals by people who think that a 10% annual return is something ridiculously low RoI. Feels like dot-com fools are allover the Visa-place. yeah, it might go to 200$/share. so what? you can make this exercise 5 times and be right 4 times. the fifth kills you, especially with this repeated call-buying humbug. face it, you need someone (fool or not) who buys V-stocks from you at ahigher price to make any money. Compare that to solid dividend paying business. that was bearfund#s point - but the momentum morons who don't know a thing about fundamentals and investing of course didn't get it.
at one point your calls will expire worthless and kill all your nice profits. only hope you didn't pay them with your V-card

Are Countrywide Shares Worthless?

wonder if bill miller still thinks cfc is worth 17$+/share

Still Too Early For Banks

well, the only ones doing fine on their capital injections into banks are those who got great terms on convertibles and preferreds. those who simply bought common are doing not so well.
nobody knows how much pain is to come down the road but from a macro perspective the consumer is trapped. so the best case scenario here is a prolonged period of a subdued economy with little power to stage a return to significant growth path. denographics, savings rates debts etc. are all pointing towards this and for all the magic tricks that tinkering with money supply and interest rates combined by increased government borrowing and spending can produce - they cannot fight these powerful factors and trends. not a crash, not a boom anytime soon. wonder how the banks will make any significant money in that kind of environment

The Worst Is Behind Us (unless massive bank failure is considered a bad thing)

H2O, your scenario makes little sense. first, the chinese have long secured lots of oil contracts off market. loss or iranian oil will make a dent, yes but to everybody, probably more than to the chinese who have the dollars anyway.
second, the fallout of a nuclear strike against iran will be devastating. moderately western-friendly govts, like those in pakistan and turkey will get blown away. and lethal attacks on the usa and its allies by small groups carried out with chemical and nuclear (dirty bombs) materials will follow with a guarantee and no hillarious president will be able to do anything about it. this martialic rhetoric will not help anyone

The Worst Is Behind Us (unless massive bank failure is considered a bad thing)

a couple of good insights BUT I think the article is quite onesided and negatively biased. I don't trust those bank execs at all and I won't invest in any of the bank stocks, BUT: the author completely misses a major point. For the rest of the market, i.e. the broad economy, the worst may really be behind! That is not to be confused with "things only get better from here". It simply means, there is more pain and more writedowns and probably a couple of smaller bank failures to come, yes, but overall, the huge risk of a complete meltdown is gone now. And yes, that exactly is the meaning to me of "the worst is behind us". Whether that makes an investment in stocks worthwhile, is a different matter, especially given the stock markets ignorance towards the deteriorating economic situation. On the other hand, corporate bonds, even some bank bonds offer compelling value and for them, it matters a great deal, whether the worst is behind us. by focussing only on the risks, the chances get neglected - and they are right there, in bonds, not in stocks. the fed made it clear by letting Bear collapse right before they opened the refi-window for the other brokers that it will backstop every major bank but won't care for the shareholders.
Ironically, the bond markets have reacted much more to the evolving crisis than the stocks - meaning the bonds have upside from here, while for many stocks there are more losses ahead. you make most money when things go from bad to less bad - not necessarily to good. they are slowly going to less bad, overall.