Seeking Alpha

wcapital

wcapital
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View wcapital's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • How Sustainable Is North American Shale Oil Extraction? [View article]
    An "advocate of global warming"??? Global warming is not a policy, it's a climatological phenomenon (evidence for which is quite strong - though with many variables of interpretation - over the recent past). Do you mean he's probably an advocate of strong action in regards to global warming? Or to human activities that may impact climate change? One might also say that you're just a "true unbeliever"....but there's no point in such commentary.

    What's more relevant is whether the author's analysis with respect to environmental problems from shale oil production is on target. There I might agree with what your simple and cynical comment seems to imply...

    What's really important in the context of analyzing energy markets and stocks is not so much what the externalized costs of environmental damages and water consumption might be - but rather what the realized costs to the industry are, and what the political environment is and will be. And my opinion is that, given the strong political shift to the right evidenced by the recent election, and the importance of the O&G industry to the economies of many states with a lot of political influence, that the tide of greater environmental regulation is more likely to recede than advance over the near to medium term. Even though from a macroeconomic perspective a time of dropping prices is perhaps the best time to "internalize externalities" by strengthening environmental regulation, increasing prices for scarce resources like water to levels that more realistically reflect true total costs, etc. - the political reality is that while greater regulation has only modest incremental cost to production, most proposals for such actions that will cost further jobs will be DOA.

    And with the track record of rapid improvements in technology and efficiency of exploration & production, and lots of still unexploited resources (possible becomes probable, probable becomes proven, proven becomes production.....), I'm a buyer of names like EOG, NBL, and COP.
    Dec 5, 2014. 02:13 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Lorain, More Questions Than Answers [View article]
    You hit the nail on the head: "...the main problem is the lack of communication. It seems that management is living on an island and doesn't seem to care about investors."......like too many other Chinese companies, where it seems management feels no obligation to the interests of shareholders.

    While there surely is opportunity in some small cap Chinese "value" stocks, without extensive personal and onsite due diligence - for which very few investors can devote the necessary time and expense - such companies are just crap shoots. For every one that may demonstrate credibility in its financials and business strategies, provide regular and accurate information to shareholders, and fulfill the promise for profit from rising valuation and growing business, there is one who will provide less and less transparency and then one day just decide to "go dark" and withdraw from reporting status because the management decides the ongoing costs aren't worth it --- leaving shareholders high and dry with precipitous drops in price and liquidity.

    This is why smart and experienced China researchers like Jon Carnes (http://alfredlittle.com), who once were investors in many such companies, now focus on uncovering the frauds and invest on the short side. Where investors may still lose their shirts on companies with good businesses because the management is self-serving, they almost always will make profits shorting bad or fraudulent companies!
    May 27, 2014. 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Maybe I'll wait a bit before buying [View news story]
    Hey, at least they're filing an S-1....if they manage to get it effective and become a reporting company and pass muster to get a ticker symbol, they'll be more credible than many companies - assets, operations and revenues or not! They'll at least have some hard assets if they complete their offering...unlike these guys: http://bit.ly/1mUIH0l (one of them hasn't filed reports w/ SEC for 5 years, the other has <$100 cash and $6k total assets to go w/ total liabilities > $1.8mm.....but combined market cap of almost $35mm!)...
    Apr 7, 2014. 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Impact Of High-Frequency Traders [View article]
    Larry - I would take issue with your assertion that "market disruptions....are irrelevant to any investor, as opposed to speculator or trader. They don't impact the long term valuations."

    Every time there's a flash crash or other kind of disruption of the market, it affects overall investor confidence and market sentiment. I would assert that cumulatively, these things DO affect long term valuations.
    Apr 4, 2014. 12:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North American Palladium Falls Prey To Venture Capital [View article]
    Vulture Capitalists might have been more apt description...
    While you may be right that SWC missed an opportunity, it's not surprising given the recent fight over management control and resulting changes. Tough time to be negotiating an acquisition...but given the high cost of this financing they may have another chance in a year or two, perhaps on even better terms.
    Jun 10, 2013. 04:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stratasys: Heavy Sales Pressure Expected Due To End Of Lockup Period [View article]
    AMAVF? A few articles her on SA about it - Most recently http://seekingalpha.co...
    ... "Arcam AB is a small 3D printer company from Sweden that has a market value of about $175M..."
    Jun 5, 2013. 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stratasys: Heavy Sales Pressure Expected Due To End Of Lockup Period [View article]
    I thought the history of ONVO to be somewhat instructive and relevant here - in that a huge overhang of cheap shares from warrants and convertibles was registered sale over the last several months...but the stock has continued more or less to go higher...

    Merely having overhanging shares eligible for sale neither assures massive selling, nor that such selling won't be absorbed. In fact sometimes it's good for the stock, as it expands liquidity and float size and alllows more/larger institutional participation...
    Jun 3, 2013. 03:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stratasys: Heavy Sales Pressure Expected Due To End Of Lockup Period [View article]
    RopeADope - I must commend your sensible and objective viewpoint - it makes much more sense to consider the arguments presented when contrary to your own (perhaps even more than those which support your view). And in this case it the author shares relevant information (which I must admit, I was not aware of - as I took my initial small position in SSYS before completing due diligence).

    However, others in this thread raise equally valuable arguments in opposition to his short call. They all contribute to a greater understanding of the risks and positive factors which are always present in any speculative investment.

    In this case, though, I wish a more objective and well-rounded analysis was presented. NewAngle here sounds entirely too much like a reverse-pump&dumper. I must commend his timing, however, releasing the article just after Cramer made cautionary comments on the 3DP sector generally, which is making his call look pretty good today. I hope he's taking advantage of the opportunity to cover some of that short...(or maybe not, the more there is to squeeze the higher it will go next run up).

    So..likely to nibble a bit more with the price down near 200 dma,,,
    Jun 3, 2013. 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems (DDD) and Stratasys (SSYS) both catch downgrades from William Bair in a note titled "Waiting for Expectations to Align With Reality." Neither firm, says Bair, appears well-positioned to be the leader of a "3rd industrial revolution ... many investors are buying shares of these two companies, at least in part, for the wrong reasons." Both are off 1.5-2% in the premarket. [View news story]
    Your points are reasonable - those are the risks in this sort of thing. But, if it really does become a world changer, by the time the technology is more fully developed and many of the questions answered, many fortunes already will have been made. And while handsome returns will still be there for the making, they will tend to expand in more arithmetic than exponential orders of magnitude....
    Valuation is a really difficult thing in these situations - hard to know what makes sense....but, anyhow, glad to hear you've made money already.
    May 17, 2013. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems (DDD) and Stratasys (SSYS) both catch downgrades from William Bair in a note titled "Waiting for Expectations to Align With Reality." Neither firm, says Bair, appears well-positioned to be the leader of a "3rd industrial revolution ... many investors are buying shares of these two companies, at least in part, for the wrong reasons." Both are off 1.5-2% in the premarket. [View news story]
    Likewise am long ONVO - but view as really risky speculation. The huge overhang of cheap stock from the original shell, PIPE transactions, warrants exercise etc. is scary - could be seeing classic pump & dump (as alluded to in yesterday's "Organovo: Get Rich Or Die Tryin'" article on SA). But the upside potential is enormous as well.

    Every so often technologies come along that change the world, and there's a phase in the markets where valuations go crazy, with fortunes made in the process. You don't win the lottery unless you at least buy a few tickets...
    May 16, 2013. 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems (DDD) and Stratasys (SSYS) both catch downgrades from William Bair in a note titled "Waiting for Expectations to Align With Reality." Neither firm, says Bair, appears well-positioned to be the leader of a "3rd industrial revolution ... many investors are buying shares of these two companies, at least in part, for the wrong reasons." Both are off 1.5-2% in the premarket. [View news story]
    I remember thinking that way about the Netscape IPO in 1995....and missing out on a whole lot of profit between then and 1999!
    May 16, 2013. 01:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Increased Iron Ore Prices Are Bullish For 3 Steel Producers [View article]
    Rising ore prices would certainly seem to be a signal that business for steel producers is improving; but - is it in and of itself bullish for them? What does it do to the margins when one of the primary production inputs increases in price? Does the improvement in demand for steel have the effect of increasing end product (steel) prices by more than that of the raw materials - resulting in higher margins; or is there a lag, which might imply lower margins, at least for a time. [I'm asking - really don't know the industry well enough to state my own opinion.]

    One company not mentioned that this trend in increasing ore prices and volume would certainly seem to benefit is China Armco Metals (CNAM) - whose business is described as:
    A U.S. company that imports, sells and distributes a variety of metal ore to the metal refinery industry in the Peoples Republic of China (“PRC”). Also....operating a scrap metal recycling facility..."
    Dec 20, 2012. 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Industrial Steel: An Undervalued Orphan In China's Steel Sector [View article]
    Thanks for the good analysis of both the industry and CDNN.

    Judging from the recent price action in the steel and other metals-related industries there (including CHOP and CNAM, which I follow) - and in various other Chinese company stocks listed in the US, it appears we may have finally seen the end of the long downtrend, reflecting a nascent upswing in at least some segments of the Chinese economy.

    The better known and more widely held stocks, it would seem, likely will be (are) responding first - but the ones with little following may take longer. In the case of CDNN, perhaps the orphan description is appropriate - though one might more accurately describe it as a test-tube baby, born without parents (underwriters or other market sponsors) when it came public... But there's benefits to that - no fast-money PIPE players with preferential conversion privileges or warrant dilution to worry about, and no "shell slime" equityholders waiting in the swamps to ambush new investors...

    So, it would seem there's time to accumulate with a bit less fear of the market on that one - though of course one must have a longer-term investment perspective given the very limited liquidity....
    Dec 10, 2012. 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The SEC Action Against Auditors Of Chinese Companies One Of Gunboat Diplomacy? [View article]
    ....and, in the interest of full disclosure, am long (though wouldn't buy right now many - some of which are tax-losses waiting to be taken) the following:
    AAPL
    AJGH
    ARCW
    BNXR
    BOPH
    BRK.B
    BSPM
    CDNN
    CHOP
    CNAM
    CPQQ
    CRTP(E)
    DLTA
    EOG
    EQT
    EMC
    GLRE
    GOK
    GTAT
    HTA
    LTTC
    LRTR
    MVC
    PAL
    SAND
    SELR
    SLW
    SPU
    SWC
    TPCS
    TRIT
    Dec 7, 2012. 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The SEC Action Against Auditors Of Chinese Companies One Of Gunboat Diplomacy? [View article]
    Milkweed: When you look at what's done in business and the markets in terms of ethics, what was done in the MBS/Derivatives markets, I'd call what was done there blatant fraud, regardless of technical legality (or difficulty in proving technical illegality). Have you read Michael Lewis's book or others about what really went on in the middle of the last decade? As usual through history, big money played on the gullibility of the masses and the irresistable forces of greed (and then fear). Of course, there's plenty of blame to go around - Congress mandating "equal opportunity" in the housing market, the high-school educated housewives turned mortgage brokers who didn't have a clue about what a balance sheet was, and almost everyone else involved. But I find it hard to regard it as anything but fraudulent when a pool of obviously garbage paper is packaged up and rated and then sold as AA paper. What would you call it?

    Just like the businesses in China have their government's laws to stand (ok, hide) behind while perpetrating their frauds, the big players here have our sets of laws and regs to allow them to operate with relative impunity - hence few going to jail. Meanwhile the SEC and Congress grandstand behind campaigns that really are meaningless - going after smaller guys and making the regulatory landscape ever-more onerous for smaller and mid-sized players in the industry, and all the more treacherous for individual investors and harder than ever to find any resemblance of a level playing field.

    Sound like a negative enough assessment of world? Well, I'm still an optimist - just believe in recognizing the reality of the pool (cesspool?) we're all swimming in....so I just bought some CDNN this morning...
    Dec 7, 2012. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
37 Comments
52 Likes