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  • Why It's So Dangerous To Compare Equity Valuations To Interest Rates Right Now [View article]
    This is a useful analysis, but in predicting (implying, anyhow) that there's to be a big fall in profit margins and thus earnings from a significantly increasing interest rate environment, what's missing is consideration of revenue growth. The expectation that rates have bottomed AND will increase dramatically over the coming years implies a strong global economic expansion - which in turn implies accelerated corporate revenue growth, and profits. Margins may be lower but P/E ratios depend upon total corporate profits, not profit margins.

    And, should the many drags on the world economy prevent a robust expansion, interest rates may well stay range-bound at the low end of the historical spectrum for some time to come. Central bankers worldwide and the governments behind them have become addicted to their printing presses as a less painful way of stimulus.....
    Jun 11, 2015. 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The World's Most Expensive (And Cheapest) Stock Markets [View article]
    What's barely implied and certainly not discussed here is that "value" has to be risk-adjusted. Countries with high geopolitical risks, uncertain economic outlooks or poor disclosure/compliance standards tend to have deservedly low ratios, and stay that way at least until those underlying uncertainties change.

    While Sir John deserves a lot of respect, his statement belies his certain awareness of this. The US at a 25 P/E might really be cheaper - at least a better value - than Iran at 5X!
    Jun 11, 2015. 05:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index [View news story]
    Tale of Two Cities (well many, actually). We updated the Zillow listing with a "make me move" price probably 50% higher than 2008 value, for a small 2br/1ba row house in Denver, and with no broker and no marketing had offers above that price within a few Colorado and lots of other areas are much different than NC. But your time will come, hopefully soon. And construction cranes seem to be the new city bird!

    Rolling recoveries...a bit like the rolling recessions that were talked about a few decades ago.
    May 26, 2015. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dudley: Pace of rate hikes to remain "shallow" [View news story]
    Inflation isn't front and center for the Fed b/c....what inflation?!
    And mentioning S&P isn't same thing as abandonment of mandate re: employment & inflation.

    The reasonable comments re: voting vs. weighing machine notwithstanding, modest, relatively steady (non-volatile) returns for stocks - and other asset classes like real estate - are good for business and overall economic confidence [see: wealth effect].

    I don't have a problem with the Fed expanding its view of how to achieve its primary mandates by trying to nurture the economy and markets in this regard.......especially given how completely Congress has abdicated nearly all of it's responsibilities....
    Apr 6, 2015. 03:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Still cause to be "slightly bullish" on quality E&P names, J.P. Morgan says [View news story]
    Makes sense to me.....invest a slight portion of capital now, and more later if it's cheaper. only way I know of to catch a falling knife!
    Mar 17, 2015. 06:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Sustainable Is North American Shale Oil Extraction? [View article]
    An "advocate of global warming"??? Global warming is not a policy, it's a climatological phenomenon (evidence for which is quite strong - though with many variables of interpretation - over the recent past). Do you mean he's probably an advocate of strong action in regards to global warming? Or to human activities that may impact climate change? One might also say that you're just a "true unbeliever"....but there's no point in such commentary.

    What's more relevant is whether the author's analysis with respect to environmental problems from shale oil production is on target. There I might agree with what your simple and cynical comment seems to imply...

    What's really important in the context of analyzing energy markets and stocks is not so much what the externalized costs of environmental damages and water consumption might be - but rather what the realized costs to the industry are, and what the political environment is and will be. And my opinion is that, given the strong political shift to the right evidenced by the recent election, and the importance of the O&G industry to the economies of many states with a lot of political influence, that the tide of greater environmental regulation is more likely to recede than advance over the near to medium term. Even though from a macroeconomic perspective a time of dropping prices is perhaps the best time to "internalize externalities" by strengthening environmental regulation, increasing prices for scarce resources like water to levels that more realistically reflect true total costs, etc. - the political reality is that while greater regulation has only modest incremental cost to production, most proposals for such actions that will cost further jobs will be DOA.

    And with the track record of rapid improvements in technology and efficiency of exploration & production, and lots of still unexploited resources (possible becomes probable, probable becomes proven, proven becomes production.....), I'm a buyer of names like EOG, NBL, and COP.
    Dec 5, 2014. 02:13 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Lorain, More Questions Than Answers [View article]
    You hit the nail on the head: "...the main problem is the lack of communication. It seems that management is living on an island and doesn't seem to care about investors." too many other Chinese companies, where it seems management feels no obligation to the interests of shareholders.

    While there surely is opportunity in some small cap Chinese "value" stocks, without extensive personal and onsite due diligence - for which very few investors can devote the necessary time and expense - such companies are just crap shoots. For every one that may demonstrate credibility in its financials and business strategies, provide regular and accurate information to shareholders, and fulfill the promise for profit from rising valuation and growing business, there is one who will provide less and less transparency and then one day just decide to "go dark" and withdraw from reporting status because the management decides the ongoing costs aren't worth it --- leaving shareholders high and dry with precipitous drops in price and liquidity.

    This is why smart and experienced China researchers like Jon Carnes (, who once were investors in many such companies, now focus on uncovering the frauds and invest on the short side. Where investors may still lose their shirts on companies with good businesses because the management is self-serving, they almost always will make profits shorting bad or fraudulent companies!
    May 27, 2014. 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Maybe I'll wait a bit before buying [View news story]
    Hey, at least they're filing an S-1....if they manage to get it effective and become a reporting company and pass muster to get a ticker symbol, they'll be more credible than many companies - assets, operations and revenues or not! They'll at least have some hard assets if they complete their offering...unlike these guys: (one of them hasn't filed reports w/ SEC for 5 years, the other has <$100 cash and $6k total assets to go w/ total liabilities > $1.8mm.....but combined market cap of almost $35mm!)...
    Apr 7, 2014. 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Impact Of High-Frequency Traders [View article]
    Larry - I would take issue with your assertion that "market disruptions....are irrelevant to any investor, as opposed to speculator or trader. They don't impact the long term valuations."

    Every time there's a flash crash or other kind of disruption of the market, it affects overall investor confidence and market sentiment. I would assert that cumulatively, these things DO affect long term valuations.
    Apr 4, 2014. 12:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North American Palladium Falls Prey To Venture Capital [View article]
    Vulture Capitalists might have been more apt description...
    While you may be right that SWC missed an opportunity, it's not surprising given the recent fight over management control and resulting changes. Tough time to be negotiating an acquisition...but given the high cost of this financing they may have another chance in a year or two, perhaps on even better terms.
    Jun 10, 2013. 04:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stratasys: Heavy Sales Pressure Expected Due To End Of Lockup Period [View article]
    AMAVF? A few articles her on SA about it - Most recently
    ... "Arcam AB is a small 3D printer company from Sweden that has a market value of about $175M..."
    Jun 5, 2013. 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stratasys: Heavy Sales Pressure Expected Due To End Of Lockup Period [View article]
    I thought the history of ONVO to be somewhat instructive and relevant here - in that a huge overhang of cheap shares from warrants and convertibles was registered sale over the last several months...but the stock has continued more or less to go higher...

    Merely having overhanging shares eligible for sale neither assures massive selling, nor that such selling won't be absorbed. In fact sometimes it's good for the stock, as it expands liquidity and float size and alllows more/larger institutional participation...
    Jun 3, 2013. 03:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stratasys: Heavy Sales Pressure Expected Due To End Of Lockup Period [View article]
    RopeADope - I must commend your sensible and objective viewpoint - it makes much more sense to consider the arguments presented when contrary to your own (perhaps even more than those which support your view). And in this case it the author shares relevant information (which I must admit, I was not aware of - as I took my initial small position in SSYS before completing due diligence).

    However, others in this thread raise equally valuable arguments in opposition to his short call. They all contribute to a greater understanding of the risks and positive factors which are always present in any speculative investment.

    In this case, though, I wish a more objective and well-rounded analysis was presented. NewAngle here sounds entirely too much like a reverse-pump&dumper. I must commend his timing, however, releasing the article just after Cramer made cautionary comments on the 3DP sector generally, which is making his call look pretty good today. I hope he's taking advantage of the opportunity to cover some of that short...(or maybe not, the more there is to squeeze the higher it will go next run up).

    So..likely to nibble a bit more with the price down near 200 dma,,,
    Jun 3, 2013. 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems (DDD) and Stratasys (SSYS) both catch downgrades from William Bair in a note titled "Waiting for Expectations to Align With Reality." Neither firm, says Bair, appears well-positioned to be the leader of a "3rd industrial revolution ... many investors are buying shares of these two companies, at least in part, for the wrong reasons." Both are off 1.5-2% in the premarket. [View news story]
    Your points are reasonable - those are the risks in this sort of thing. But, if it really does become a world changer, by the time the technology is more fully developed and many of the questions answered, many fortunes already will have been made. And while handsome returns will still be there for the making, they will tend to expand in more arithmetic than exponential orders of magnitude....
    Valuation is a really difficult thing in these situations - hard to know what makes sense....but, anyhow, glad to hear you've made money already.
    May 17, 2013. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems (DDD) and Stratasys (SSYS) both catch downgrades from William Bair in a note titled "Waiting for Expectations to Align With Reality." Neither firm, says Bair, appears well-positioned to be the leader of a "3rd industrial revolution ... many investors are buying shares of these two companies, at least in part, for the wrong reasons." Both are off 1.5-2% in the premarket. [View news story]
    Likewise am long ONVO - but view as really risky speculation. The huge overhang of cheap stock from the original shell, PIPE transactions, warrants exercise etc. is scary - could be seeing classic pump & dump (as alluded to in yesterday's "Organovo: Get Rich Or Die Tryin'" article on SA). But the upside potential is enormous as well.

    Every so often technologies come along that change the world, and there's a phase in the markets where valuations go crazy, with fortunes made in the process. You don't win the lottery unless you at least buy a few tickets...
    May 16, 2013. 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment