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  • U.S. companies to invest $140B in support of U.N. climate change deal [View news story]
    Those merchants of doubt, skeptics, and those who are ignorant or just care purely about short term gains could profit from reading "The Radical Industrialist" ...and a few other analyses of how (truly) green business can be as or more profitable than dirty ones.
    Jul 27, 2015. 09:46 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. companies to invest $140B in support of U.N. climate change deal [View news story]
    Yes, and many of the episodes of natural climate change have had catastrophic impacts on large segments of life on earth. So does it really sound sensible for humanity to be turbocharging one of the processes known to be integral to many of the episodes of major and rapid warming? Even if you think so, perhaps it may at least make you feel better that there's usually a strong correlation between reducing carbon emissions and reducing various other kinds of pollution.
    Jul 27, 2015. 09:37 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. companies to invest $140B in support of U.N. climate change deal [View news story]
    You have a good point.....though the ethics, politics (and anthro-biology) of cutting back on Hummers are a lot easier!
    Jul 27, 2015. 09:28 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sifting Through The Scraps In China's Steel Market [View article]
    The biggest risk, in my view, relates to negative # 3 - that management doesn't talk to investors. Over and over again management of Chinese microcap companies have demonstrated little to no regard for US investors in their companies. Too many such companies have, after first receiving capital infusions from the US markets, become less and less credible or transparent and eventually withdrawing completely from interactions with shareholders, analysts etc. And when that disregard leads them to decide it's not worth the headache or expense to keep up with their SEC filings, they just file a form 15 (termination of registration), drop into the lowest ranks of nonreporting OTC markets companies, and vaporize what little liquid shareholder value might have been remaining. See, for example, CPQQ, CDNN, ACRB....
    Jul 21, 2015. 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It's So Dangerous To Compare Equity Valuations To Interest Rates Right Now [View article]
    This is a useful analysis, but in predicting (implying, anyhow) that there's to be a big fall in profit margins and thus earnings from a significantly increasing interest rate environment, what's missing is consideration of revenue growth. The expectation that rates have bottomed AND will increase dramatically over the coming years implies a strong global economic expansion - which in turn implies accelerated corporate revenue growth, and profits. Margins may be lower but P/E ratios depend upon total corporate profits, not profit margins.

    And, should the many drags on the world economy prevent a robust expansion, interest rates may well stay range-bound at the low end of the historical spectrum for some time to come. Central bankers worldwide and the governments behind them have become addicted to their printing presses as a less painful way of stimulus.....
    Jun 11, 2015. 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The World's Most Expensive (And Cheapest) Stock Markets [View article]
    What's barely implied and certainly not discussed here is that "value" has to be risk-adjusted. Countries with high geopolitical risks, uncertain economic outlooks or poor disclosure/compliance standards tend to have deservedly low ratios, and stay that way at least until those underlying uncertainties change.

    While Sir John deserves a lot of respect, his statement belies his certain awareness of this. The US at a 25 P/E might really be cheaper - at least a better value - than Iran at 5X!
    Jun 11, 2015. 05:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index [View news story]
    Tale of Two Cities (well many, actually). We updated the Zillow listing with a "make me move" price probably 50% higher than 2008 value, for a small 2br/1ba row house in Denver, and with no broker and no marketing had offers above that price within a few Colorado and lots of other areas are much different than NC. But your time will come, hopefully soon. And construction cranes seem to be the new city bird!

    Rolling recoveries...a bit like the rolling recessions that were talked about a few decades ago.
    May 26, 2015. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dudley: Pace of rate hikes to remain "shallow" [View news story]
    Inflation isn't front and center for the Fed b/c....what inflation?!
    And mentioning S&P isn't same thing as abandonment of mandate re: employment & inflation.

    The reasonable comments re: voting vs. weighing machine notwithstanding, modest, relatively steady (non-volatile) returns for stocks - and other asset classes like real estate - are good for business and overall economic confidence [see: wealth effect].

    I don't have a problem with the Fed expanding its view of how to achieve its primary mandates by trying to nurture the economy and markets in this regard.......especially given how completely Congress has abdicated nearly all of it's responsibilities....
    Apr 6, 2015. 03:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Still cause to be "slightly bullish" on quality E&P names, J.P. Morgan says [View news story]
    Makes sense to me.....invest a slight portion of capital now, and more later if it's cheaper. only way I know of to catch a falling knife!
    Mar 17, 2015. 06:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Sustainable Is North American Shale Oil Extraction? [View article]
    An "advocate of global warming"??? Global warming is not a policy, it's a climatological phenomenon (evidence for which is quite strong - though with many variables of interpretation - over the recent past). Do you mean he's probably an advocate of strong action in regards to global warming? Or to human activities that may impact climate change? One might also say that you're just a "true unbeliever"....but there's no point in such commentary.

    What's more relevant is whether the author's analysis with respect to environmental problems from shale oil production is on target. There I might agree with what your simple and cynical comment seems to imply...

    What's really important in the context of analyzing energy markets and stocks is not so much what the externalized costs of environmental damages and water consumption might be - but rather what the realized costs to the industry are, and what the political environment is and will be. And my opinion is that, given the strong political shift to the right evidenced by the recent election, and the importance of the O&G industry to the economies of many states with a lot of political influence, that the tide of greater environmental regulation is more likely to recede than advance over the near to medium term. Even though from a macroeconomic perspective a time of dropping prices is perhaps the best time to "internalize externalities" by strengthening environmental regulation, increasing prices for scarce resources like water to levels that more realistically reflect true total costs, etc. - the political reality is that while greater regulation has only modest incremental cost to production, most proposals for such actions that will cost further jobs will be DOA.

    And with the track record of rapid improvements in technology and efficiency of exploration & production, and lots of still unexploited resources (possible becomes probable, probable becomes proven, proven becomes production.....), I'm a buyer of names like EOG, NBL, and COP.
    Dec 5, 2014. 02:13 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Lorain, More Questions Than Answers [View article]
    You hit the nail on the head: "...the main problem is the lack of communication. It seems that management is living on an island and doesn't seem to care about investors." too many other Chinese companies, where it seems management feels no obligation to the interests of shareholders.

    While there surely is opportunity in some small cap Chinese "value" stocks, without extensive personal and onsite due diligence - for which very few investors can devote the necessary time and expense - such companies are just crap shoots. For every one that may demonstrate credibility in its financials and business strategies, provide regular and accurate information to shareholders, and fulfill the promise for profit from rising valuation and growing business, there is one who will provide less and less transparency and then one day just decide to "go dark" and withdraw from reporting status because the management decides the ongoing costs aren't worth it --- leaving shareholders high and dry with precipitous drops in price and liquidity.

    This is why smart and experienced China researchers like Jon Carnes (, who once were investors in many such companies, now focus on uncovering the frauds and invest on the short side. Where investors may still lose their shirts on companies with good businesses because the management is self-serving, they almost always will make profits shorting bad or fraudulent companies!
    May 27, 2014. 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Maybe I'll wait a bit before buying [View news story]
    Hey, at least they're filing an S-1....if they manage to get it effective and become a reporting company and pass muster to get a ticker symbol, they'll be more credible than many companies - assets, operations and revenues or not! They'll at least have some hard assets if they complete their offering...unlike these guys: (one of them hasn't filed reports w/ SEC for 5 years, the other has <$100 cash and $6k total assets to go w/ total liabilities > $1.8mm.....but combined market cap of almost $35mm!)...
    Apr 7, 2014. 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Impact Of High-Frequency Traders [View article]
    Larry - I would take issue with your assertion that "market disruptions....are irrelevant to any investor, as opposed to speculator or trader. They don't impact the long term valuations."

    Every time there's a flash crash or other kind of disruption of the market, it affects overall investor confidence and market sentiment. I would assert that cumulatively, these things DO affect long term valuations.
    Apr 4, 2014. 12:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North American Palladium Falls Prey To Venture Capital [View article]
    Vulture Capitalists might have been more apt description...
    While you may be right that SWC missed an opportunity, it's not surprising given the recent fight over management control and resulting changes. Tough time to be negotiating an acquisition...but given the high cost of this financing they may have another chance in a year or two, perhaps on even better terms.
    Jun 10, 2013. 04:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stratasys: Heavy Sales Pressure Expected Due To End Of Lockup Period [View article]
    AMAVF? A few articles her on SA about it - Most recently
    ... "Arcam AB is a small 3D printer company from Sweden that has a market value of about $175M..."
    Jun 5, 2013. 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment