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  • Core Portfolio For The 59 Year Old [View article]
    Not too clear on the thinking around Lockheed - the economic crisis will result in massive cutbacks in Defense spending that will severely impact Defense Aerospace firms. The last time there was a cyclical downturn, economic strain, wars ending, etc. the entire defense sector saw its revenues cut in HALF.
    Nov 22, 2011. 11:01 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Abbott Labs/AbbVie Split Strategy: Cash Out, Hold, Reinvest? [View article]
    Nice analysis as always. Very thoughtful and detailed - the market topping out and some sort of healthcare price pressure/caps will be the main risk, but in terms of safety, earnings, dividends and comparison to other market leaders and their PE's, this is about as safe as it gets in this market. I'm long both stocks (bought pre-split) and holding.
    Feb 13, 2013. 11:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Supporting Netflix Shares? A Look At Q1 Highlights And Earnings Expectations [View article]
    Absolutely spot on analysis! FINALLY someone has the financial acumen to analyze Netflix based on financial results, fundamental performance and industry comparisons! The most telling statistics in this article are the industry comparisons - note how far away from the industry averages Netflix is floating.

    This is the best pre-earnings analysis I've seen for Netflix and is like a breath of fresh air. Finally, a dose of realism in the midst or irrational exuberance! This is a clear "buyer beware" warning so no one has an excuse to get caught holding this stock if the bubble bursts when earnings are announced on April 22. No one should whine or cry when the stock price aligns with the company's true fair value. Watch the earnings release closely...very closely. Beating the street's puny 18 cent profit estimate will not be enough to sustain this valuation level.
    Apr 18, 2013. 09:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Fast Growing Wound Care Companies With Upcoming Milestones [View article]
    Nice analysis. This is an overlooked sector with strong promise - the need to replace antibiotics with chemical cleansing and sterilization is real. OCLS and the others in this sector provide the needed solutions. I am long OCLS because I feel the original hype and premature investment (which happens to a lot of early stage bioventures) has passed and the company is positioned for growth and appreciation. The financial evolution, growing number of patents, the number of deals and strategic positioning are encouraging. Also, the company management has provided guidance that OCLS expects to generate "consistent" earnings in 2014 (or sooner). I usually have one "penny stock" in my portfolio and OCLS occupies this spot in my portfolio.
    Feb 17, 2013. 06:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debunking The Short Thesis On Coinstar [View article]
    Terrific analysis. Spot on the money.
    Dec 19, 2012. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry, Mr. Chanos, You're Wrong About Coinstar [View article]
    Nice summary, well reasoned.

    Mr. Chanos is wrong about the impending death of physical media such as movies on disk - however - he was right that this stock had some spikey ups and downs which probably made his short positions pay off a couple of times. I wonder if he got caught and had to cover when the stock bounced back up or did he just take a quick profit and bail out?

    Many people overlook the fact that this is a billion dollar company and listed as one of the fastest growing companies in America. Their lines of business sometimes make them seem like a smaller more entrepreneurial venture, especially since they are in retailing but as you observe, this is a technology company, taking full advantage of the blurring speed of the Internet and wireless to deliver physical products - kind of the amazon.com of kiosk marketing and delivery, but with less physical inventory and logistics.

    Regarding Medbox, they have an existing healthcare diagnosis kiosk and it makes sense to branch to something more direct in the medical area.
    Dec 11, 2012. 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Abbott (ABT) says the SEC has declared effective the Form 10 Registration Statement filed by AbbVie, its research-based pharmaceuticals business, clearing the way to spin the company out. Abbott expects to complete the separation of AbbVie on January 1, 2013, whereupon the special dividend, declared on November 28, will be distributed. [View news story]
    This spinout is going to dramatically increase shareholder value over time. The division of the two entities incurs some temporary costs - which required the bond issue - but long term the result is the creation of TWO biopharma companies, each with the reliable, stable, well known management approach and industry leadership we've come to appreciate as investors, at Abbott Labs. There is no reason to believe that both companies won't be successful. This split is a very smart "downsizing" - which sounds like an odd term considering this creates two multi-billion dollar corporate powerhouses/market leaders.

    Also, there are important realities occurring in the biopharma market that require a keen, targeted focus on the major technology sectors. These sectors require slightly different strategic and management approaches, so this is a shrewd move by ABT.

    I also believe that the stock has run up quite a bit, and pulled back somewhat when the bond issuance was announced - it should be noted that this is the best time in history, with the lowest interest rates ever - to push a large bond issue. This provides the funding needed to duplicate facilities, staff, infrastructure, equipment, etc. and should also provide state of the art modern research facilities.

    I don't see any downside to this move and as an investor I am delighted. This is the kind of strategic move that investors are always clamoring for - the unlocking of increased shareholder value - and most corporations do not take these radical steps. Let's revisit the two corporations and their stock value in 12 months and everyone can tell me if I was right to be optimistic and pleased.
    Dec 8, 2012. 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Having been prevented from issuing bonds early this week because of Hurricane Sandy, companies jumped into the market with a vengeance yesterday, raising almost $12B worth of debt. BP (BP) with a $3B deal and GD (GD) with $2.4B led the way, although AbbVie - soon to be spun off from Abbott Labs (ABT) - delayed a $10B offering until next week. [View news story]
    It stands to reason that the split company cannot share the same buildings etc. so they need to acquire some capital equipment and facilities but this also allows them to modernize some of their labs and equipment as well as move into more efficient (hopefully energy efficient) facilities. The bond financing is part of the foundation building process and positive for investors, imho.
    Nov 2, 2012. 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coinstar, Redbox Have A Bright Future: A Bullish View To Counter Jim Chanos' Short [View article]
    The settlement between Verizon and TiVO has spooked investors - most investors don't understand how CSTR is helped or hindered by this settlement. Would be helpful to have a clear explanation of the pros and cons of the settlement and why it spooked CSTR investors.
    Sep 24, 2012. 10:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coinstar, Redbox Have A Bright Future: A Bullish View To Counter Jim Chanos' Short [View article]
    This is a terrific, well reasoned summary. Jim Chanos makes his shorting arguments based on what normally happens in the consumer electronics market - which is, migration to the nextgen storage technology. Chanos assumes a rapid migration from DVDs to streaming video. However, streaming video costs remain unacceptably high. The streaming technology is not stable yet (there is a lot of "buffering" that goes on with streaming Netflix for example). The observation that CSTR may switch from a revenue growth to cash cow mode (high cash with no additional investment) is great from a stock valuation standpoint.

    The new markets that Chanos counts as negatives are growth initiatives designed to add new business units - not bad - that's what you want a growth company to do.

    One thing that is missing from this analysis is that CSTR's management team has shown itself to be very nimble and not fall into the Netflix trap of sticking to one market channel until the channel morphs or becomes saturated. This is a strong counterpoint to the Short strategy favored by Chanos. Nicely done!
    Sep 22, 2012. 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These 5 Big Healthcare Stocks Have Major Upside In 2013 [View article]
    Whether the broader market rises or pulls back, or the economy rises or falls, I'm happy to be positioned in ABT as a safe bet for the next few years. I'm looking forward to the split, to see what the excellent mgmt. teams there do with two separate companies which will improve their focus, and (most analysts believe) their growth. This is the anchor stock in my portfolio.
    May 7, 2012. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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